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← Back to GamesSep 21, 2024Week 4
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Northern Illinois by 11.3

Home Win Probability

Northern Illinois 78%

Market (Bovada)

Northern Illinois -13

Edge: Buffalo +13 (1.7 pts)

fitted_v1 · Sep 21, 2024

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QOTFinal
BuffaloBuffalo
03710323
Northern IllinoisNorthern Illinois
7706020

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014287-07-314-314-1017-1017-1720-20
Northern IllinoisBuffalo

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20BUFNIBUFNIBUFNIBUFNIBUFNIBUFNIBUFNINIBUFNIBUFNIBUFNIBUFNIBUFNIBUFNIBUFPUNT33ydPUNT3-4ydPUNT38ydTD1366ydPUNT37ydMISS1053ydFG1154ydTO121ydTO3-1ydPUNT35ydPUNT3-1ydTD236ydPUNT31ydEND727ydPUNT31ydTD659ydPUNT833ydPUNT319ydFG1157ydTD775ydPUNT729ydPUNT3-10ydTO418ydFG4-4ydFG1366ydEND1-2ydMISS40ydFG46yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Buffalo and Northern Illinois
StatisticBuffaloNorthern Illinois
Passing10-1723-43
Pass Yards107194
Rush Yards77165
Total Yards184359
Turnovers12
3rd Down2-159-22
Penalties5-745-55
Possession23:4736:13

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Buffalo
passing
CJ Ogbonna
10/17, 107 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Al-Jay Henderson
11 CAR, 56 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Victor Snow
3 REC, 72 YDS, 1 TD
defense
Shaun Dolac
4.5 TFL, 1 PD
Northern Illinois
passing
Ethan Hampton
23/43, 194 YDS, 1 INT
rushing
Antario Brown
24 CAR, 73 YDS, 2 TD
receiving
Cam Thompson
3 REC, 49 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.59

C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Taji Johnson for 1 yd to the BUF 26

2nd & 9Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.27

Al-Jay Henderson run for 2 yds to the BUF 28

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.27

C.J. Ogbonna pass incomplete

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Ethan Duane punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Dane Pardridge at the NIU 38

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Antario Brown run for 4 yds to the NIU 34

2nd & 14Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.41

Ethan Hampton pass incomplete

3rd & 14Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.19

Ethan Hampton pass incomplete

4th & 14Punt0 yds

Tom Foley punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Victor Snow at the BUF 22

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.56

Victor Snow run for 7 yds to the BUF 29

2nd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.90

C.J. Ogbonna pass incomplete

3rd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.37

C.J. Ogbonna run for 1 yd to the BUF 30

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Ethan Duane punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Dane Pardridge at the NIU 34

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

(11:50) Shotgun Brown,Antario rush middle for 5 yards gain to the NIU39 (Dolac,Shaun) PENALTY NIU Holding (Zschernitz,Logan) 10 yards from NIU34 to NIU24. NO PLAY.

1st & 20Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.45

Trayvon Rudolph run for 14 yds to the NIU 38

2nd & 6Fumble Recovery (Own)+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Ethan Hampton run for 5 yds to the NIU 33 Ethan Hampton fumbled, recovered by NIU Ethan Hampton

3rd & 11Rush+13 ydsPPA +2.79

Ethan Hampton run for 13 yds to the NIU 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.42

Ethan Hampton pass complete to Antario Brown for 3 yds to the NIU 49

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.12

Ethan Hampton pass incomplete

3rd & 7Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +2.91

Ethan Hampton pass complete to Cam Thompson for 21 yds to the BUF 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Ethan Hampton pass incomplete

2nd & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)0 ydsPPA -0.76

Antario Brown run for no gain to the BUF 30 fumbled, recovered by BUF

3rd & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.41

Antario Brown run for 7 yds to the BUF 23

4th & 3Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.19

Ethan Hampton pass complete to Cam Thompson for 10 yds to the BUF 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Antario Brown run for 4 yds to the BUF 9

2nd & 6Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Ethan Hampton pass complete to Justin Lynch for 4 yds to the BUF 5

3rd & 2Rushing Touchdown+5 ydsPPA +2.58

Antario Brown run for 5 yds for a TD (Kanon Woodill KICK)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Al-Jay Henderson run for 1 yd to the BUF 26

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.41

C.J. Ogbonna pass incomplete

3rd & 9Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.09

C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Jacqez Barksdale for 6 yds to the BUF 32

4th & 3Punt+1 yds

Ethan Duane punt for 44 yds , Dane Pardridge returns for 1 yd to the NIU 25

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Ethan Hampton pass incomplete

2nd & 10Penalty+15 yds

(03:34) Brown,Antario rush right for 0 yards to the NIU25 (Murdock,Red) PENALTY BUF Personal Foul 15 yards from NIU25 to NIU40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.68

Antario Brown run for 2 yds to the NIU 42

2nd & 8Rush0 ydsPPA -0.93

Antario Brown run for no gain to the NIU 42

3rd & 8Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +2.68

Ethan Hampton pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 10 yds to the BUF 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

Buffalo Penalty, Personal Foul (Red Murdock) to the BUF 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

Northern Illinois Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the BUF 36

1st & 16Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY NIU Offside (Barnes,Grayson) 5 yards from BUF36 to BUF41. NO PLAY.

1st & 21Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.19

Antario Brown run for 12 yds to the BUF 29

2nd & 9Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.22

Antario Brown run for 3 yds to the BUF 26

3rd & 6Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.10

Ethan Hampton pass complete to Grayson Barnes for 4 yds to the BUF 22

4th & 2Field Goal Missed+39 yds

Kanon Woodill 39 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +1.90

C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Victor Snow for 22 yds to the BUF 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.39

C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Lamar Sperling for 6 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.98

Lamar Sperling run for 1 yd to the BUF 49

3rd & 5Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.16

C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Victor Snow for 4 yds to the NIU 47

4th & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +2.14

Jacqez Barksdale run for 2 yds to the NIU 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.30

Jacqez Barksdale run for 6 yds to the NIU 39

2nd & 4Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +0.47

C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to JJ Jenkins for 14 yds to the NIU 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.35

C.J. Ogbonna run for 1 yd to the NIU 26

2nd & 11Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.35

C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Jacqez Barksdale for 2 yds to the NIU 24

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.83

C.J. Ogbonna pass incomplete

4th & 9Field Goal Good+42 yds

Upton Bellenfant 42 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

PENALTY BUF Personal Foul (Brown,SaVeon) 15 yards from NIU25 to NIU40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Ethan Hampton pass complete to Tristen Tewes for 6 yds to the NIU 46 pass complete to for 5 yds Tristen Tewes fumbled, forced by Red Murdock, recovered by BUF Solomon Brown

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.79

Jacqez Barksdale run for 1 yd to the NIU 45

2nd & 9Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.63

Jacqez Barksdale run for 2 yds to the NIU 43

3rd & 7Fumble Recovery (Own)-4 ydsPPA -1.63

C.J. Ogbonna sacked by Nevaeh Sanders for a loss of 4 yards to the NIU 47 C.J. Ogbonna fumbled, recovered by NIU Devonte O'Malley , return for 0 yards

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.91

Trayvon Rudolph run for 1 yd to the NIU 48

2nd & 9Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Antario Brown run for 4 yds to the BUF 48

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.99

Ethan Hampton pass incomplete

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Ethan Hampton punt for 46 yds

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.21

Jacqez Barksdale run for 1 yd to the BUF 1

2nd & 11Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.07

Jacqez Barksdale run for 1 yd to the BUF 2

3rd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.04

Jacqez Barksdale run for 1 yd to the BUF 1

4th & 11Punt+8 yds

Ethan Duane punt for 43 yds , Dane Pardridge returns for 8 yds to the BUF 36

1st & 10Penalty+14 yds

Buffalo Penalty, Personal Foul (Jalen McNair) to the BUF 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+14 ydsPPA +2.55

Antario Brown run for 14 yds for a TD (Kanon Woodill KICK)

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.14

Al-Jay Henderson run for 9 yds to the BUF 30

2nd & 1Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -1.32

C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Al-Jay Henderson for a loss of 1 yard to the BUF 29

3rd & 2Sack-7 ydsPPA -0.79

C.J. Ogbonna sacked by Nevaeh Sanders for a loss of 7 yards to the BUF 22

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Ethan Duane punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Dane Pardridge at the NIU 35

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.23

Gavin Williams run for 13 yds to the NIU 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Gavin Williams run for 5 yds to the BUF 47

2nd & 5Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Ethan Hampton pass complete to Gavin Williams for 3 yds to the BUF 44

3rd & 2Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.26

Antario Brown run for 7 yds to the BUF 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.75

Ethan Hampton pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.97

Ethan Hampton pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -1.20

Ethan Hampton pass complete to Gavin Williams for a loss of 1 yard to the BUF 38

0th & 10End of Half-1 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Antario Brown run for 3 yds to the NIU 22

2nd & 13Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Ethan Hampton pass complete to Tristen Tewes for 4 yds to the NIU 26

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.19

Ethan Hampton pass incomplete

4th & 9Punt+6 yds

Tom Foley punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BUF 41 , Victor Snow returns for 6 yds to the BUF 41

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.70

Messiah Burch run for 7 yds to the BUF 48

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.75

Messiah Burch run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -1.16

Jacqez Barksdale run for no gain to the 50 yard line

4th & 1Fumble Recovery (Own)+1 ydsPPA +2.11

C.J. Ogbonna run for 1 yd to the NIU 49 C.J. Ogbonna fumbled, recovered by BUF Caelan Shepard for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.38

Lamar Sperling run for 3 yds to the NIU 46

2nd & 7Passing Touchdown+46 ydsPPA +4.14

C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Victor Snow for 46 yds for a TD (Upton Bellenfant KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Ethan Hampton pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.29

Antario Brown run for 1 yd to the NIU 26

3rd & 9Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +2.70

Ethan Hampton pass complete to Cam Thompson for 18 yds to the NIU 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.26

Gavin Williams run for 9 yds to the BUF 47

2nd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Antario Brown run for 3 yds to the BUF 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Antario Brown run for 4 yds to the BUF 40

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.02

Ethan Hampton pass incomplete

3rd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.63

Gavin Williams run for 2 yds to the BUF 42

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Ethan Hampton punt for 35 yds

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

(06:52) No Huddle-Shotgun Ogbonna,C.J. pass incomplete deep right to Jenkins,JJ thrown to NIU50 PENALTY NIU Pass Interference (Finley,Jacob) 15 yards from BUF07 to BUF22, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.51

Victor Snow run for 1 yd to the BUF 21

2nd & 11Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.03

Terrance Shelton Jr. run for 5 yds to the BUF 26

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.27

C.J. Ogbonna pass incomplete

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Ethan Duane punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Dane Pardridge at the NIU 30

1st & 10Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +1.68

Ethan Hampton pass complete to Antario Brown for 18 yds to the NIU 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.66

Trayvon Rudolph run for 2 yds to the NIU 46

2nd & 12Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Gavin Williams run for 5 yds to the BUF 49

3rd & 7Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +2.84

Ethan Hampton pass complete to Dane Pardridge for 24 yds to the BUF 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.35

Antario Brown run for 1 yd to the BUF 26

2nd & 11Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.66

Ethan Hampton pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for no gain to the BUF 26

3rd & 11Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.39

Ethan Hampton pass complete to Dane Pardridge for 13 yds to the BUF 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -0.37

Ethan Hampton pass complete to Justin Lynch for a loss of 1 yard to the BUF 14

2nd & 11Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.26

Antario Brown run for 1 yd to the BUF 13

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.52

Ethan Hampton pass incomplete

4th & 10Field Goal Good+30 yds

Kanon Woodill 30 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Al-Jay Henderson run for 2 yds to the BUF 27

2nd & 8Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.43

C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Al-Jay Henderson for 7 yds to the BUF 34

3rd & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA +1.15

Al-Jay Henderson run for 4 yds to the BUF 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

Northern Illinois Penalty, Personal Foul (Cade Haberman) to the NIU 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.42

Al-Jay Henderson run for 2 yds to the NIU 36

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.91

C.J. Ogbonna pass incomplete

3rd & 8Rushing Touchdown+36 ydsPPA +4.43

Al-Jay Henderson run for 36 yds for a TD (Upton Bellenfant KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Antario Brown run for 3 yds to the NIU 28

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Ethan Hampton pass incomplete

3rd & 7Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.79

Ethan Hampton pass complete to Grayson Barnes for 8 yds to the NIU 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+19 ydsPPA +1.67

Gavin Williams run for 19 yds to the BUF 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.00

Ethan Hampton pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.85

Gavin Williams run for 1 yd to the BUF 46

3rd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.79

Ethan Hampton pass incomplete

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Tom Foley punt for 46 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

C.J. Ogbonna pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.17

Al-Jay Henderson run for 2 yds to the BUF 18

3rd & 12Sack-8 ydsPPA -0.13

C.J. Ogbonna sacked by Nevaeh Sanders for a loss of 8 yards to the BUF 10

4th & 20Punt0 yds

Ethan Duane punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Dane Pardridge at the 50 yard line

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +0.83

Ethan Hampton pass complete to Grayson Barnes for 14 yds to the BUF 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Gavin Williams run for 4 yds to the BUF 32

2nd & 6Rush0 ydsPPA -0.77

Antario Brown run for no gain to the BUF 32

3rd & 6Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -3.14

Ethan Hampton pass intercepted Shaun Dolac return for no gain to the NIU 20

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.21

C.J. Ogbonna run for 2 yds to the NIU 22

2nd & 12Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.29

C.J. Ogbonna run for 2 yds to the NIU 24

3rd & 14Rush0 ydsPPA -0.95

Al-Jay Henderson run for no gain to the NIU 24

4th & 14Field Goal Good+42 yds

Upton Bellenfant 42 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Ethan Hampton pass complete to Antario Brown for 1 yd to the NIU 26

2nd & 9Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.42

Antario Brown run for 9 yds to the NIU 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Antario Brown run for 3 yds to the NIU 38

2nd & 7Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +2.04

Ethan Hampton pass complete to Andrew McElroy for 15 yds to the BUF 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.82

Ethan Hampton run for 1 yd to the BUF 46

2nd & 9Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.40

Antario Brown run for 3 yds to the BUF 43

3rd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.40

Ethan Hampton run for 3 yds to the BUF 40

4th & 3Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +2.42

Ethan Hampton pass complete to Andrew McElroy for 10 yds to the BUF 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.21

Ethan Hampton pass complete to Andrew McElroy for 6 yds to the BUF 24

2nd & 4Penalty+15 yds

(00:42) Shotgun Hampton,Ethan pass incomplete short right to McElroy,Andrew thrown to BUF05 PENALTY BUF Pass Interference (McCartherens,Charles) 15 yards from BUF24 to BUF09, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

1st & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.32

Ethan Hampton pass incomplete

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.27

Ethan Hampton pass incomplete

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.39

Ethan Hampton pass incomplete

4th & 9Field Goal Good+27 yds

Kanon Woodill 27 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.89

C. Ogbonna takes a knee

0th & 10End of Regulation0 yds

End of 4th Quarter

4th & 4Field Goal Good+37 yds

Upton Bellenfant 37 Yd Field Goal

No play data available

Situational Analysis

Buffalo

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
33%
18 plays
2nd
0%
3 plays
50%
2 plays
29%
7 plays
25%
4 plays
3rd
25%
4 plays
0%
2 plays
33%
6 plays
0%
2 plays
4th
100%
2 plays

Northern Illinois

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
30%
30 plays
100%
2 plays
2nd
0%
1 play
20%
5 plays
15%
13 plays
20%
5 plays
3rd
100%
2 plays
0%
5 plays
60%
10 plays
50%
4 plays
4th
100%
2 plays