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← Back to GamesAug 29, 2024Week 1

House Prediction

Model Margin

NC State by 13.2

Home Win Probability

NC State 76%

Market (ESPN Bet)

NC State -32.5

Edge: Western Carolina +32.5 (19.4 pts)

fitted_v1 · Aug 29, 2024

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Western Carolina
1407021
NC StateNC State
7732138

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428427-714-1417-1417-2131-2138-21
NC StateWestern Carolina

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20WCNSWCNSWCNSWCNSWCNSWCNSWCNSWCNSWCNSWCNSWCNSWCDOWNS946ydPUNT625ydPUNT33ydTO10ydTD18ydTD775ydTD675ydTD775ydPUNT521ydDOWNS723ydDOWNS49ydDOWNS832ydEND1-5ydFG1439ydTD675ydPUNT540ydPUNT3-4ydTD551ydPUNT419ydTD981ydMISS856ydTD580ydTO1066yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Western Carolina and NC State
StatisticWestern CarolinaNC State
Passing24-4026-40
Pass Yards241318
Rush Yards120203
Total Yards361521
Turnovers11
3rd Down5-137-13
Penalties8-746-67
Possession24:3035:30

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Western Carolina
passing
Cole Gonzales
22/35, 211 YDS, 2 TD
rushing
Cole Gonzales
6 CAR, 75 YDS
receiving
AJ Colombo
9 REC, 97 YDS, 1 TD
defense
NC State
passing
Grayson McCall
26/40, 318 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Jordan Waters
20 CAR, 123 YDS, 2 TD
receiving
Kevin Concepcion
9 REC, 121 YDS, 3 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Cole Gonzales pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Cole Gonzales pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +2.17

Cole Gonzales pass complete to AJ Colombo for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Cole Gonzales pass complete to Calvin Jones

2nd & 1Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY WCU False Start (Simmons,Derek) 5 yards from WCU47 to WCU42. NO PLAY.

2nd & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Cole Gonzales run for 5 yds to the WCU 47

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Cole Gonzales pass complete to Calvin Jones

2nd & 5Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.08

Cole Gonzales pass complete to Branson Adams

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.86

Marlin Cochran run for no gain to the NCSU 29

4th & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -3.06

Cole Gonzales pass incomplete

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Jordan Waters run for 4 yds to the NCSU 34

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.81

Grayson McCall pass incomplete

3rd & 6Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +2.80

Grayson McCall pass complete to Noah Rogers to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)+7 ydsPPA +0.59

Grayson McCall pass complete to Kevin Concepcion Kevin Concepcion fumbled, recovered by WCU Juice Vereen

2nd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.13

Grayson McCall pass incomplete

3rd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.66

Jordan Waters run for 2 yds to the WCU 45

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Caden Noonkester punt for 45 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Cole Gonzales pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.11

run for 3 yds to the WCU 17

3rd & 13Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.26

Branson Adams run for 11 yds to the WCU 28

4th & 2Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY WCU Delay Of Game 5 yards from WCU28 to WCU23. NO PLAY.

4th & 7Punt+20 yds

Stephen Brantley punt for 42 yds , Kevin Concepcion returns for 20 yds to the WCU 45

1st & 10Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -3.52

Grayson McCall pass intercepted Ken Moore Jr. return for 51 yds to the NCSU 8

1st & 8Passing Touchdown+8 ydsPPA +2.32

Jake Young 8 Yd pass from Cole Gonzales (Christian Lowery Kick)

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Jordan Waters run for 5 yds to the NCSU 30 Jordan Waters fumbled, recovered by WCU Justin Joly

2nd & 5Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +2.37

Grayson McCall pass complete to Wesley Grimes for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.56

Kendrick Raphael run for 10 yds to the WCU 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.75

Grayson McCall pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.53

Jordan Waters run for 2 yds to the WCU 35

3rd & 8Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +1.76

Grayson McCall pass complete to Noah Rogers for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+17 ydsPPA +2.58

Kevin Concepcion 17 Yd pass from Grayson McCall (Kanoah Vinesett Kick)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Corey Reddick Jr. run for 2 yds to the WCU 27

2nd & 8Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Cole Gonzales pass complete to AJ Colombo

3rd & 3Rush+50 ydsPPA +3.88

Cole Gonzales run for 50 yds to the NCSU 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.18

Cole Gonzales pass complete to Malik Knight

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.41

Cole Gonzales pass incomplete

3rd & 4Passing Touchdown+12 ydsPPA +2.82

AJ Colombo 12 Yd pass from Cole Gonzales (Christian Lowery Kick)

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.84

Jordan Waters run for 10 yds to the NCSU 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.83

Jordan Waters run for 1 yd to the NCSU 36

2nd & 9Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +2.72

Grayson McCall pass complete to Justin Joly for a 1ST down

1st & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.05

Grayson McCall pass incomplete

2nd & 15Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +2.59

Grayson McCall pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+25 ydsPPA +0.93

Hollywood Smothers run for 25 yds to the WCU 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Passing Touchdown+5 ydsPPA +1.88

Kevin Concepcion 5 Yd pass from Grayson McCall (Kanoah Vinesett Kick)

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Cole Gonzales pass complete to Calvin Jones

2nd & 5Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.23

Cole Gonzales pass complete to AJ Colombo for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Cole Gonzales pass complete to Calvin Jones

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.24

Cole Gonzales pass incomplete

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.88

Cole Gonzales pass incomplete

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Stephen Brantley punt for 32 yds

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Stephen Brantley punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Jalen Coit at the NCSU 36

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.64

Jordan Waters run for 2 yds to the NCSU 38

2nd & 8Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.67

Jordan Waters run for 1 yd to the NCSU 37

3rd & 9Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +2.95

Grayson McCall pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception-3 ydsPPA -1.78

Grayson McCall pass complete to Kendrick Raphael

2nd & 13Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.52

Grayson McCall pass complete to Terrell Anderson

3rd & 6Penalty+5 yds

PENALTY WCU Offside (Simpson-Nealy,Bo) 5 yards from WCU45 to WCU40. NO PLAY.

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -1.15

Hollywood Smothers run for no gain to the WCU 40

4th & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +1.81

Jordan Waters run for 1 yd to the WCU 41

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.14

Cole Gonzales pass incomplete

2nd & 10Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY WCU False Start (Carter,Caleb) 5 yards from WCU41 to WCU36. NO PLAY.

2nd & 15Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.89

Cole Gonzales pass complete to Jake Young

3rd & 5Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Cole Gonzales pass complete to Malik Knight to the 50 yard line

4th & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -1.13

Branson Adams run for no gain to the 50 yard line

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.84

Grayson McCall pass complete to Justin Joly

2nd & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -1.13

Grayson McCall run for no gain to the WCU 42

3rd & 2Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +1.08

Grayson McCall pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +0.39

Grayson McCall pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.42

Grayson McCall pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.15

Jordan Waters run for 6 yds to the WCU 17

3rd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.16

Grayson McCall run for 3 yds to the WCU 14

4th & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.58

Jordan Waters run for 4 yds to the WCU 18

1st & 10Penalty-9 yds

(00:52) No Huddle-Shotgun Gonzales,Cole rush middle for 5 yards gain to the WCU23 (Brown,Sean) PENALTY WCU Holding (Graham,Xavier) 9 yards from WCU18 to WCU09. NO PLAY.

1st & 19Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Branson Adams run for 4 yds to the WCU 13

0th & 19End of Half+4 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+32 yds

Paxton Robertson kickoff for 65 yds , Hollywood Smothers return for 32 yds to the NCSU 32

1st & 10Penalty0 yds

(14:52) Shotgun McCall,Grayson pass incomplete deep right to Concepcion,Kevin "KC" thrown to WCU45 QB hurried by Turner,Antarron PENALTY NCSU Ineligible Downfield on Pass offsetting WCU Pass Interference offsetting NCSU Holding offsetting. NO PLAY.

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.38

Jordan Waters run for 3 yds to the NCSU 29

2nd & 13Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.59

Grayson McCall pass complete to Noah Rogers

3rd & 4Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +1.94

Grayson McCall pass complete to Dacari Collins for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.94

Kendrick Raphael run for 8 yds to the WCU 47

2nd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.27

Grayson McCall pass incomplete

3rd & 2Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA +1.19

Grayson McCall pass complete to Dacari Collins for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.97

Grayson McCall pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.30

Kendrick Raphael run for 6 yds to the WCU 38

3rd & 4Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.38

Grayson McCall pass complete to Justin Joly

4th & 1Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.77

Jordan Waters run for 10 yds to the WCU 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.45

Grayson McCall pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.61

Grayson McCall pass incomplete

3rd & 10Sack-4 ydsPPA -1.73

Grayson McCall sacked by Chris Morgan for a loss of 4 yards to the WCU 29

4th & 14Field Goal Good+46 yds

Kanoah Vinesett 46 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +1.32

Cole Gonzales run for 15 yds to the WCU 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-15 yds

(07:25) No Huddle-Shotgun Gonzales,Cole pass incomplete deep right to Young,Jake thrown to NCSU30 PENALTY WCU Pass Interference (Young,Jake) 15 yards from WCU40 to WCU25. NO PLAY.

1st & 25Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.42

Cole Gonzales pass complete to AJ Colombo

2nd & 15Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.33

Branson Adams run for 1 yd to the WCU 36

3rd & 14Pass Reception+25 ydsPPA +3.86

Cole Gonzales pass complete to AJ Colombo for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.44

Cole Gonzales pass complete to Calvin Jones

2nd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.80

Cole Gonzales pass incomplete

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+17 ydsPPA +2.58

Branson Adams run for 17 yds for a TD (Christian Lowery KICK)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+17 yds

Paxton Robertson kickoff for 65 yds , Hollywood Smothers return for 17 yds to the NCSU 17

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Jordan Waters run for 4 yds to the NCSU 21

2nd & 6Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.46

Grayson McCall pass complete to Justin Joly for a 1ST down Western Carolina Penalty, Roughing The Passer (Curtis Fann Jr.) to the WCU 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.94

Grayson McCall pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.61

Kevin Concepcion run for 2 yds to the WCU 45

3rd & 12Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.49

Grayson McCall pass complete to Kendrick Raphael

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Caden Noonkester punt for 30 yds

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.40

Cole Gonzales run for no gain to the WCU 13

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.18

Cole Gonzales pass incomplete

3rd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.01

Branson Adams run for 4 yds to the WCU 9

4th & 14Punt0 yds

Stephen Brantley punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Kevin Concepcion at the NCSU 49

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.13

Grayson McCall pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Grayson McCall pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +3.09

Grayson McCall pass complete to Terrell Anderson for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.69

Grayson McCall pass incomplete

2nd & 10Passing Touchdown+35 ydsPPA +3.66

Kevin Concepcion 35 Yd pass from Grayson McCall (Kanoah Vinesett Kick)

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.12

Cole Gonzales pass complete to Jake Young for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-6 ydsPPA -1.91

Cole Gonzales sacked for a loss of 6 yards to the WCU 32

2nd & 16Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.25

Branson Adams run for 1 yd to the WCU 33

3rd & 15Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.53

Cole Gonzales run for 11 yds to the WCU 44

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Stephen Brantley punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jalen Coit at the NCSU 19

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.28

Grayson McCall pass complete to Kevin Concepcion

2nd & 4Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.55

Grayson McCall run for 6 yds to the NCSU 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.95

Grayson McCall pass complete to Jordan Waters for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Jonathan Paylor run for 3 yds to the NCSU 44

2nd & 7Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.80

Grayson McCall pass complete to Wesley Grimes for a 1ST down

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)+14 ydsPPA +0.53

Hollywood Smothers run for 14 yds to the WCU 28 Hollywood Smothers fumbled, recovered by NCSU for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +0.71

Grayson McCall pass complete to Justin Joly for a 1ST down

1st & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.39

Jordan Waters run for 1 yd to the WCU 7

2nd & 7Rushing Touchdown+7 ydsPPA +2.61

Jordan Waters run for 7 yds for a TD (Kanoah Vinesett KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Cole Gonzales pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+32 ydsPPA +3.43

Cole Gonzales pass complete to Malik Knight for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.29

Cole Gonzales pass complete to AJ Colombo

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.94

Cole Gonzales pass incomplete

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Cole Gonzales pass incomplete

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)+9 ydsPPA +0.65

Cole Gonzales pass complete to for 9 yds fumbled, recovered by WCU

2nd & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.16

Cole Gonzales pass complete to AJ Colombo

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.57

Cole Gonzales pass incomplete

4th & 4Field Goal Missed+37 yds

Christian Lowery 37 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Jordan Waters run for 4 yds to the NCSU 24

2nd & 6Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.23

Grayson McCall run for 11 yds to the NCSU 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.97

Jordan Waters run for 10 yds to the NCSU 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+50 ydsPPA +3.84

Jordan Waters run for 50 yds for a TD (Kanoah Vinesett KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.84

Cole Gonzales pass complete to AJ Colombo for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.97

Cole Gonzales pass complete to Marlin Cochran for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.38

Taron Dickens run for 6 yds to the NCSU 49

2nd & 4Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.84

Taron Dickens run for 12 yds to the NCSU 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.78

Taron Dickens pass complete to Marlin Cochran

2nd & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.77

Taron Dickens pass incomplete

3rd & 1Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +0.85

Taron Dickens pass complete to James Randle for a 1ST down

1st & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.41

Taron Dickens pass incomplete

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.28

Taron Dickens pass incomplete

3rd & 7Fumble Recovery (Own)-2 ydsPPA -0.52

Taron Dickens sacked by Isaiah Shirley for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSU 9 Taron Dickens fumbled, recovered by WCU Donovan Kaufman , return for 0 yards

Situational Analysis

Western Carolina

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
63%
24 plays
50%
2 plays
2nd
0%
2 plays
43%
7 plays
43%
7 plays
33%
3 plays
3rd
67%
3 plays
20%
5 plays
33%
3 plays
100%
3 plays
4th
0%
2 plays

NC State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
50%
2 plays
48%
31 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
0%
3 plays
80%
5 plays
55%
11 plays
100%
3 plays
3rd
50%
4 plays
50%
4 plays
75%
4 plays
0%
1 play
4th
100%
3 plays