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← Back to GamesDec 16, 2023Week 1

House Prediction

Model Margin

New Mexico State by 13.5

Home Win Probability

Fresno State 19%

Market (Bovada)

Fresno State +3

Edge: New Mexico State -3 (10.5 pts)

fitted_v1 · Dec 16, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
New Mexico StateNew Mexico State
037010
Fresno StateFresno State
10731737

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428423-010-017-320-320-1027-1030-1037-10
Fresno StateNew Mexico State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20NMSFSNMSFSNMSFSNMSNMSFSNMSFSNMSFSFSNMSFSNMSFSNMSFSNMSFSNMSPUNT834ydFG761ydTO2-12ydTD340ydPUNT32ydPUNT36ydTO31ydFG45ydTD782ydPUNT3-17ydTO427ydDOWNS942ydEND552ydFG968ydTD1475ydTD1366ydPUNT322ydFG944ydDOWNS47ydTD432ydDOWNS45ydDOWNS4-7ydEND426yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing New Mexico State and Fresno State
StatisticNew Mexico StateFresno State
Passing11-2531-40
Pass Yards58380
Rush Yards142120
Total Yards200500
Turnovers12
3rd Down5-148-13
Penalties7-427-65
Possession29:1030:50

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

New Mexico State
passing
Diego Pavia
11/25, 58 YDS, 1 INT
rushing
Diego Pavia
18 CAR, 72 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Eli Stowers
3 REC, 20 YDS
defense
Fresno State
passing
Mikey Keene
31/39, 380 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Malik Sherrod
20 CAR, 90 YDS
receiving
Malik Sherrod
8 REC, 81 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.25

Diego Pavia run for 9 yds to the NMSU 34

2nd & 1Rush+15 ydsPPA +0.90

Diego Pavia run for 15 yds to the NMSU 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Diego Pavia run for 7 yds to the FRES 44

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.65

Jamoni Jones run for 2 yds to the FRES 42

3rd & 1Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.03

Diego Pavia run for 8 yds to the FRES 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Monte Watkins run for 4 yds to the FRES 30

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.71

Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Chris Bellamy

3rd & 6Sack-6 ydsPPA -2.19

Diego Pavia sacked by Jacob Holmes for a loss of 6 yards to the FRES 36

4th & 12Penalty-5 yds

New Mexico State Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the FRES 41

4th & 17Punt+33 yds

Zach Haynes punt for 34 yds , Erik Brooks returns for 33 yds to the FRES 8 Fresno State Penalty, Illegal Block (15 Yards) to the FRES 25

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.22

Mikey Keene pass complete to Erik Brooks for 14 yds to the FRES 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.67

Malik Sherrod run for 2 yds to the FRES 41

2nd & 8Pass Reception+39 ydsPPA +2.91

Mikey Keene pass complete to Jalen Moss for 39 yds to the NMSU 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Malik Sherrod run for 4 yds to the NMSU 16

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.12

Malik Sherrod run for 3 yds to the NMSU 13

3rd & 3Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -0.54

Mikey Keene pass complete to Malik Sherrod for a loss of 1 yard to the NMSU 14

4th & 4Field Goal Good+32 yds

Dylan Lynch 32 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Sack-7 ydsPPA -1.15

Diego Pavia sacked by Devo Bridges for a loss of 7 yards to the NMSU 18

2nd & 17Penalty-5 yds

New Mexico State Penalty, False Start (Cedric Claiborne) to the NMSU 13

2nd & 22Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA +0.33

Diego Pavia pass intercepted Dean Clark return for no gain to the NMSU 40

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Mikey Keene pass complete to Jaelen Gill for 5 yds to the NMSU 35

2nd & 5Penalty-5 yds

Fresno State Penalty, Illegal Touching (Jaelen Gill) to the NMSU 40

3rd & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +2.34

Mikey Keene pass complete to Josiah Freeman for 14 yds to the NMSU 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+26 ydsPPA +2.72

Mikey Keene pass complete to Josiah Freeman for 26 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+24 yds

Dylan Lynch kickoff for 65 yds , Star Thomas return for 24 yds to the NMSU 24

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.67

Makhilyn Young run for no gain to the NMSU 24

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.14

Diego Pavia run for 3 yds to the NMSU 27

3rd & 7Penalty-5 yds

New Mexico State Penalty, False Start (AJ Vaipulu) to the NMSU 22

3rd & 12Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Diego Pavia run for 4 yds to the NMSU 26

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Zach Haynes punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FRES 28

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.66

Malik Sherrod run for 1 yd to the FRES 29

2nd & 9Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.22

Mikey Keene pass complete to Erik Brooks for 6 yds to the FRES 35

3rd & 3Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -0.68

Mikey Keene pass complete to Malik Sherrod for a loss of 1 yard to the FRES 34

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Carson King punt for 66 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.24

Diego Pavia pass complete to Kordell David for 3 yds to the NMSU 23

2nd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.19

Jamoni Jones run for 3 yds to the NMSU 26

3rd & 4Fumble Recovery (Own)-5 ydsPPA -0.49

TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the NMSU 21 TEAM fumbled, recovered by NMSU Diego Pavia

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Zach Haynes punt for 46 yds , Erik Brooks returns for no gain to the FRES 33 Erik Brooks fumbled, recovered by NMSU BJ Sculark

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.34

Diego Pavia run for 2 yds to the FRES 31

2nd & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.24

Monte Watkins run for 3 yds to the FRES 28

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.86

Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Jonathan Brady

4th & 5Field Goal Good+45 yds

Ethan Albertson 45 yd FG GOOD

4th & 5Kickoff Return (Offense)+14 yds

Ethan Albertson kickoff for 61 yds , Jaelen Gill return for 14 yds to the FRES 18

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.22

Malik Sherrod run for 3 yds to the FRES 21

2nd & 7Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.93

Mikey Keene pass complete to Jalen Moss for 8 yds to the FRES 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.66

Mikey Keene pass complete to Josiah Freeman for 7 yds to the FRES 36

2nd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.92

Malik Sherrod run for 1 yd to the FRES 37

3rd & 2Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +2.20

Mikey Keene pass complete to Malik Sherrod for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +0.94

Mikey Keene pass complete to Malik Sherrod for 17 yds to the NMSU 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+10 yds

Keene, Mikey pass incomplete to Dalena, Mac, PENALTY NEWMEXST holding (Seldon, Andre) 10 yards to the NEWMEXST23, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FRESNOST.

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+23 ydsPPA +2.66

Mikey Keene pass complete to Jaelen Gill for 23 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

New Mexico State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Shiyazh Pete) to the NMSU 15

1st & 20Rush0 ydsPPA -0.14

Diego Pavia run for no gain to the NMSU 15

2nd & 20Sack-7 ydsPPA -0.10

Diego Pavia sacked by Levelle Bailey for a loss of 7 yards to the NMSU 8

3rd & 27Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.01

Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Eli Stowers

4th & 27Punt+15 yds

Zach Haynes punt for 42 yds , Erik Brooks returns for 15 yds to the NMSU 35

1st & 10Pass Reception-4 ydsPPA -1.45

Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for a loss of 4 yards to the NMSU 39

2nd & 14Pass Reception+34 ydsPPA +2.54

Mikey Keene pass complete to Jaelen Gill for 29 yds to the NMSU 10 for a 1ST down New Mexico State Penalty, Illegal Use of Hands (5 Yards) to the NMSU 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 0Penalty-5 yds

Fresno State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NMSU 10

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.16

Malik Sherrod run for 2 yds to the NMSU 8

2nd & 8Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -4.32

Mikey Keene pass intercepted, touchback. Mehki Miller return for no gain

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.78

Diego Pavia pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 11 yds to the NMSU 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.89

Diego Pavia pass complete to Chris Bellamy for no gain to the NMSU 31

2nd & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.84

Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 10 yds to the NMSU 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.97

Diego Pavia run for 11 yds to the FRES 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.59

Bryce Childress run for 10 yds to the FRES 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.78

Diego Pavia run for no gain to the FRES 38

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.99

Diego Pavia pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.00

Diego Pavia pass incomplete

4th & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.13

Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Chris Bellamy

1st & 10Pass Reception-2 ydsPPA -1.43

Mikey Keene pass complete to Malik Sherrod for a loss of 2 yards to the FRES 36

2nd & 12Rush+19 ydsPPA +2.91

Malik Sherrod run for 19 yds to the NMSU 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.00

TEAM pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Mikey Keene pass incomplete to Jalen Moss

3rd & 10Pass Reception+35 ydsPPA +3.03

Mikey Keene pass complete to Erik Brooks for 35 yds to the NMSU 10 for a 1ST down

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.70

Mikey Keene pass complete to Tre Watson for no gain to the FRES 25

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Mikey Keene pass incomplete to Tre Watson

3rd & 10Pass Reception+26 ydsPPA +3.37

Mikey Keene pass complete to Malik Sherrod for 26 yds to the NMSU 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Mikey Keene run for 5 yds to the NMSU 44

2nd & 5Rush+34 ydsPPA +1.15

Malik Sherrod run for 34 yds to the NMSU 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.09

Malik Sherrod run for 3 yds to the NMSU 7

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.28

Mikey Keene pass incomplete to Josiah Freeman

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.33

Mikey Keene pass incomplete to Josiah Freeman

4th & 7Field Goal Good+25 yds

Dylan Lynch 25 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Jamoni Jones run for 4 yds to the NMSU 29

2nd & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Jamoni Jones run for 5 yds to the NMSU 34

3rd & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +0.86

Jamoni Jones run for 1 yd to the NMSU 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.83

Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 1 yd to the NMSU 36

2nd & 9Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.52

Makhilyn Young run for 7 yds to the NMSU 43

3rd & 2Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.28

Monte Watkins run for 2 yds to the NMSU 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.68

Makhilyn Young run for 2 yds to the NMSU 47

2nd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.64

Makhilyn Young run for 2 yds to the NMSU 49

3rd & 6Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +2.24

Diego Pavia pass complete to Chris Bellamy for 8 yds to the FRES 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.29

Diego Pavia run for 6 yds to the FRES 37

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.94

Diego Pavia pass incomplete

3rd & 4Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.37

Diego Pavia pass complete to Kordell David for 16 yds to the FRES 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.32

Diego Pavia run for 7 yds to the FRES 14

2nd & 3Rushing Touchdown+14 ydsPPA +2.32

Diego Pavia run for 14 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK)

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Malik Sherrod run for 7 yds to the FRES 32

2nd & 3Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA +0.23

Mikey Keene pass complete to Jaelen Gill for 3 yds to the FRES 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for 6 yds to the FRES 41

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Mikey Keene pass incomplete to Tre Watson

3rd & 4Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +2.39

Mikey Keene pass complete to Malik Sherrod for 12 yds to the NMSU 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.28

Malik Sherrod run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMSU 48

2nd & 11Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +2.13

Mikey Keene pass complete to Jalen Moss for 20 yds to the NMSU 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

Mikey Keene pass incomplete to Tre Watson

2nd & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.55

Mikey Keene pass complete to Jaelen Gill for 9 yds to the NMSU 19

1st & 10Rush-8 ydsPPA -0.84

Elijah Gilliam run for a loss of 8 yards to the NMSU 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.51

Malik Sherrod run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMSU 20

2nd & 12Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.42

Mikey Keene pass complete to Tre Watson for 16 yds to the NMSU 4 for a 1ST down

1st & 4Rushing Touchdown+4 ydsPPA +1.69

Mikey Keene run for 4 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+4 yds

Dylan Lynch kickoff for 65 yds , Star Thomas return for 4 yds to the NMSU 4 New Mexico State Penalty, Illegal Forward Pass (Star Thomas) to the NMSU 2

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

Fresno State Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the NMSU 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception-3 ydsPPA -0.65

Diego Pavia pass complete to Bryce Childress for a loss of 3 yards to the NMSU 14

2nd & 13Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.39

Star Thomas run for 10 yds to the NMSU 24

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.34

Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Kordell David

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Zach Haynes punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Erik Brooks at the FRES 36

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

Fresno State Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the FRES 26

1st & 20Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.08

Mikey Keene pass complete to Erik Brooks for 12 yds to the FRES 38

2nd & 8Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.78

Mikey Keene pass complete to Erik Brooks for 10 yds to the FRES 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.15

Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for 9 yds to the NMSU 43

2nd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -1.20

Malik Sherrod run for no gain to the NMSU 43

3rd & 1Rush+18 ydsPPA +1.35

Elijah Gilliam run for 18 yds to the NMSU 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.14

Mikey Keene pass complete to Tre Watson for 3 yds to the NMSU 22

2nd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.26

Elijah Gilliam run for 2 yds to the NMSU 20

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.61

Mikey Keene pass incomplete to Erik Brooks

4th & 5Field Goal Good+38 yds

Dylan Lynch 38 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Makhilyn Young run for 7 yds to the NMSU 32

2nd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.99

Diego Pavia pass incomplete

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Jonathan Brady

4th & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.02

Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Bryce Childress

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.32

Malik Sherrod run for 2 yds to the NMSU 30

2nd & 8Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.08

Malik Sherrod run for 4 yds to the NMSU 26

3rd & 4Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +0.85

Mikey Keene pass complete to Malik Sherrod for 17 yds to the NMSU 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Passing Touchdown+9 ydsPPA +2.42

Mikey Keene pass complete to Jalen Moss for 9 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Diego Pavia pass complete to Star Thomas for 6 yds to the NMSU 31

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.87

Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Chris Bellamy

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.44

Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Donovan Faupel

4th & 4Sack-1 ydsPPA +0.05

Diego Pavia sacked by Phoenix Jackson for a loss of 1 yard to the NMSU 30

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

Fresno State Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the NMSU 40

1st & 20Penalty-5 yds

Fresno State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NMSU 45

1st & 25Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.75

Malik Sherrod run for 1 yd to the NMSU 44

2nd & 24Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.44

Malik Sherrod run for 2 yds to the NMSU 42

3rd & 22Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.71

Malik Sherrod run for 9 yds to the NMSU 33

4th & 13Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.25

Malik Sherrod run for a loss of 4 yards to the NMSU 37

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.38

Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 9 yds to the NMSU 46

2nd & 1Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.43

Larenzo McMillan run for 13 yds to the FRES 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.46

Diego Pavia run for 7 yds to the FRES 34

2nd & 3Pass Reception-3 ydsPPA -1.48

Diego Pavia pass complete to Larenzo McMillan for a loss of 3 yards to the FRES 37

Situational Analysis

New Mexico State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
50%
22 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
50%
6 plays
25%
4 plays
29%
7 plays
67%
3 plays
3rd
60%
5 plays
33%
6 plays
0%
1 play
0%
2 plays
4th
0%
1 play
100%
1 play
0%
1 play

Fresno State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
41%
27 plays
50%
2 plays
2nd
33%
3 plays
33%
3 plays
45%
11 plays
80%
5 plays
3rd
50%
4 plays
67%
3 plays
75%
4 plays
100%
1 play
4th
0%
1 play