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← Back to GamesOct 14, 2023Week 7
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Buffalo by 5.8

Home Win Probability

Buffalo 66%

Market (Bovada)

Buffalo -3

Edge: Buffalo -3 (2.8 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 14, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Bowling GreenBowling Green
10140024
BuffaloBuffalo
707014

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014287-107-2414-24
BuffaloBowling Green

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20BGBUFBGBUFBGBUFBGBUFBGBUFBUFBGBUFBUFBGBUFBGBUFBGBUFBGBUFBGBUFBGPUNT523ydPUNT36ydTO47ydTD433ydFG970ydTO22ydTD39ydPUNT515ydTD1386ydTD575ydTO26ydTO211ydMISS728ydTO934ydTO518ydTD1074ydPUNT3-1ydDOWNS49ydMISS95ydDOWNS726ydPUNT37ydTO1141ydTD464ydTO20ydUncategorized3-18yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Bowling Green and Buffalo
StatisticBowling GreenBuffalo
Passing9-169-29
Pass Yards7771
Rush Yards218167
Total Yards295238
Turnovers35
3rd Down3-123-11
Penalties10-1054-30
Possession33:2826:32

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Bowling Green
passing
Camden Orth
9/16, 77 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
rushing
Terion Stewart
25 CAR, 123 YDS
receiving
Austin Osborne
3 REC, 59 YDS
defense
Buffalo
passing
CJ Ogbonna
4/14, 41 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
rushing
Ron Cook Jr.
12 CAR, 47 YDS
receiving
Darrell Harding Jr.
2 REC, 39 YDS, 1 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Terion Stewart run for 7 yds to the BGSU 32

2nd & 3Fumble Recovery (Own)+19 ydsPPA +1.71

Terion Stewart run for 19 yds to the BUFF 49 Terion Stewart fumbled, recovered by BGSU Alex Wollschlaeger for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Bowling Green Penalty, false start (Odieu Hiliare) to the BGSU 46

1st & 15Penalty-5 yds

Bowling Green Penalty, false start (Tunde Fatukasi) to the BGSU 41

1st & 20Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.70

Camden Orth pass complete to Ta'ron Keith

2nd & 20Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.38

pass incomplete to Abdul-Fatai Ibrahim

3rd & 20Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.15

Ta'ron Keith run for 7 yds to the BGSU 48

4th & 13Punt0 yds

Jackson Kleather punt for 24 yds

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.80

Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Boobie Curry, broken up by Shamoun Duncan-Niusulu

2nd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.19

Ron Cook Jr. run for 6 yds to the BUFF 34

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Boobie Curry, broken up by Jalen Huskey

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Anthony Venneri punt for 41 yds , Jhaylin Embry returns for no gain to the BGSU 21

1st & 10Rush+20 ydsPPA +1.67

Terion Stewart run for 20 yds to the BGSU 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-10 ydsPPA -2.40

Bowling Green Penalty, Offensive holding (Tunde Fatukasi) to the BGSU 31

1st & 20Pass Reception-3 ydsPPA -0.54

Camden Orth pass complete to Harold Fannin Jr. for a loss of 3 yards to the BGSU 28

2nd & 23Fumble Recovery (Own)+10 ydsPPA +0.30

Camden Orth pass complete to Austin Osborne for 10 yds Camden Orth fumbled, recovered by BUFF Marcus Fuqua

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.72

Ron Cook Jr. run for 9 yds to the BGSU 24

2nd & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.44

Ron Cook Jr. run for 4 yds to the BGSU 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.10

for a 1ST down Bowling Green Penalty, personal foul (Cashius Howell) to the BGSU 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+10 ydsPPA +2.51

Cole Snyder run for 10 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK) Buffalo Penalty, false start (Tyler Doty) to the BGSU 8 (Alex McNulty KICK)

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Camden Orth run for 7 yds to the BGSU 32

2nd & 3Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.52

Terion Stewart run for 6 yds to the BGSU 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.27

Terion Stewart run for a loss of 1 yard to the BGSU 37

2nd & 11Rush+15 ydsPPA +2.54

Ta'ron Keith run for a loss of 1 yard to the BUFF 49 for a 1ST down Odieu Hiliare run for 15 yds to the BUFF 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+42 ydsPPA +1.57

Camden Orth pass complete to Austin Osborne for 42 yds to the BUFF 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.54

Terion Stewart run for a loss of 2 yards to the BUFF 9

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.27

pass incomplete to Ta'ron Keith

3rd & 9Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Camden Orth pass complete to Finn Hogan for 4 yds to the BUFF 5

4th & 5Field Goal Good+23 yds

Alan Anaya 23 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.66

Mike Washington run for 2 yds to the BUFF 39

2nd & 8Fumble Recovery (Own)-19 ydsPPA -1.67

Cole Snyder run for a loss of 19 yards to the BUFF 9 Cole Snyder fumbled, recovered by BGSU Darius Lorfils

1st & 9Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.43

Terion Stewart run for a loss of 2 yards to the BUFF 11

2nd & 11Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.40

Terion Stewart run for 10 yds to the BUFF 1

3rd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +2.45

Camden Orth run for 1 yd for a TD (Alan Anaya KICK)

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Mike Washington run for 7 yds to the BUFF 32

2nd & 3Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.23

Mike Washington run for 3 yds to the BUFF 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Cole Snyder run for 5 yds to the BUFF 40

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.63

pass incomplete to Cole Harrity

4th & 5Punt+4 yds

Anthony Venneri punt for 50 yds , Jhaylin Embry returns for 4 yds to the BGSU 14

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.18

Terion Stewart run for 3 yds to the BGSU 17

2nd & 7Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.06

Camden Orth run for 12 yds to the BGSU 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.66

Camden Orth pass complete to Harold Fannin Jr. for 7 yds to the BGSU 36

2nd & 3Rush+19 ydsPPA +1.64

Terion Stewart run for 19 yds to the BUFF 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Terion Stewart run for 5 yds to the BUFF 40

2nd & 5Rush+14 ydsPPA +0.66

Camden Orth run for 14 yds to the BUFF 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Ta'ron Keith run for 4 yds to the BUFF 22

2nd & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.39

Terion Stewart run for 1 yd to the BUFF 21

3rd & 5Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.59

Camden Orth pass complete to Abdul-Fatai Ibrahim for 7 yds to the BUFF 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.31
2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Camden Orth run for 4 yds to the BUFF 10

3rd & 6Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.43

Camden Orth run for 7 yds to the BUFF 3 for a 1ST down

1st & 3Passing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +1.46

Camden Orth pass complete to Ta'ron Keith for 3 yds for a TD (Alan Anaya KICK)

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Ron Cook Jr. run for 6 yds to the BUFF 31

2nd & 4Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.50

Ron Cook Jr. run for 4 yds to the BUFF 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Ron Cook Jr. run for 5 yds to the BUFF 40

2nd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.66

Ron Cook Jr. run for 2 yds to the BUFF 42

3rd & 3Pass Reception-4 ydsPPA -1.20

Cole Snyder pass complete to Ron Cook Jr. for a loss of 4 yards to the BUFF 38

4th & 7Blocked Punt Touchdown+18 ydsPPA -7.01

PaSean Wimberly 18 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Alan Anaya Kick)

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Cole Snyder pass complete to Cole Harrity for 6 yds to the BUFF 31

2nd & 4Interception0 ydsPPA -1.26

Cole Snyder pass intercepted

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.24

Terion Stewart run for 11 yds to the BUFF 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -4.37

Camden Orth pass intercepted

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.12

pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.29

Cole Snyder pass complete to Marlyn Johnson for 6 yds to the BUFF 46

3rd & 4Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +2.45

Cole Snyder pass complete to Darrell Harding Jr. for 15 yds to the BGSU 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.81

pass incomplete to Ron Cook Jr.

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Cole Harrity, broken up by Dontrez Brown

3rd & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.51

Cole Snyder pass complete to Ron Cook Jr. for 7 yds to the BGSU 32

4th & 3Field Goal Missed+50 yds

Alex McNulty 50 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Ron Cook Jr. run for 5 yds to the BUFF 23

2nd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.23

Ron Cook Jr. run for 3 yds to the BUFF 26

3rd & 2Rush+6 ydsPPA +1.12

Victor Snow run for 6 yds to the BUFF 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.02

CJ Ogbonna run for 8 yds to the BUFF 40

2nd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.03

Ron Cook Jr. run for 3 yds to the BUFF 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.98

CJ Ogbonna run for 8 yds to the BGSU 49

2nd & 2Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.01

Mike Washington run for 4 yds to the BGSU 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.68

CJ Ogbonna run for a loss of 3 yards to the BGSU 48

2nd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.96

CJ Ogbonna pass incomplete, broken up by Evan Branch-Haynes

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.87

Terion Stewart run for 1 yd to the BUFF 49

2nd & 9Rush+16 ydsPPA +1.81

Terion Stewart run for 16 yds to the BUFF 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.15

Terion Stewart run for a loss of 3 yards to the BUFF 36

2nd & 13Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Terion Stewart run for 4 yds to the BUFF 32

3rd & 9Interception0 ydsPPA -2.81

Camden Orth pass intercepted

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.47

Mike Washington run for 2 yds to the BUFF 28

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion+15 ydsPPA +2.01

CJ Ogbonna pass incomplete to Cole Harrity for a 1ST down Bowling Green Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Davon Ferguson) to the BUFF 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.69

Mike Washington run for 2 yds to the BUFF 45

2nd & 8Rush+15 ydsPPA +1.96

for a 1ST down Bowling Green Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Evan Branch-Haynes) to the BGSU 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.85

CJ Ogbonna pass incomplete to Darrell Harding Jr., broken up by Jordan Oladokun

2nd & 10Rush-9 ydsPPA -2.62

CJ Ogbonna run for 1 yd to the BGSU 39 Buffalo Penalty, Offensive holding (Andrew Schnackenberg) to the BGSU 49

2nd & 19Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.10

CJ Ogbonna run for 10 yds to the BGSU 39

3rd & 9Rush0 ydsPPA -1.01

Ron Cook run for no gain to the BGSU 39

4th & 9Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +3.17

CJ Ogbonna pass complete to Ron Cook Jr. for 15 yds to the BGSU 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+24 ydsPPA +2.68

CJ Ogbonna pass complete to Darrell Harding Jr. for 24 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

pass incomplete to Ta'ron Keith

2nd & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.39

Terion Stewart run for a loss of 1 yard to the BGSU 24

3rd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.13

pass incomplete to Harold Fannin Jr.

4th & 11Punt+3 yds

Jackson Kleather punt for 44 yds , Ron Cook Jr. returns for 3 yds to the BUFF 35

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Mike Washington run for 6 yds to the BUFF 41

2nd & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.95

Mike Washington run for 1 yd to the BUFF 42

3rd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.52

Mike Washington run for 2 yds to the BUFF 44

4th & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.69

Ron Cook run for no gain to the BUFF 44

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.97

Terion Stewart run for no gain to the BUFF 44

2nd & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.52

Camden Orth pass complete to Austin Osborne for 7 yds to the BUFF 37

3rd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.61

Terion Stewart run for 2 yds to the BUFF 35

4th & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.56

Harold Fannin Jr. run for 2 yds to the BUFF 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.38

Terion Stewart run for 7 yds to the BUFF 26

2nd & 3Rush-13 ydsPPA -3.14

Camden Orth run for 2 yds to the BUFF 24 Bowling Green Penalty, personal foul (Alex Padgett) to the BUFF 39

3rd & 19Rush+18 ydsPPA +2.63

Camden Orth run for 18 yds to the BUFF 24

4th & 1Field Goal Missed+42 yds

Alan Anaya 42 yd FG MISSED

2nd & 16Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.56

Terion Stewart run for a loss of 3 yards to the BUFF 42

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.81

Mike Washington run for 10 yds to the BUFF 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.99

pass incomplete to Darrell Harding Jr.

2nd & 10Rush+16 ydsPPA +2.48

Victor Snow run for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.11

CJ Ogbonna pass incomplete to Mike Washington, broken up by Davon Ferguson

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.02

pass incomplete to Marlyn Johnson

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.71

CJ Ogbonna pass incomplete to Cameron Ball, broken up by Davon Ferguson

4th & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.32

pass incomplete to Boobie Curry

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.11

pass incomplete to Terion Stewart

2nd & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.82

Camden Orth run for 8 yds to the BUFF 42

3rd & 2Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.38

Camden Orth run for a loss of 1 yard to the BUFF 43

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Jackson Kleather punt for 25 yds

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

pass incomplete to Darrell Harding Jr.

2nd & 10Rush+17 ydsPPA +1.75

Jacqez Barksdale run for 17 yds to the BUFF 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

CJ Ogbonna pass incomplete to Cole Harrity, broken up by Darius Lorfils

2nd & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.96

Jacqez Barksdale run for 9 yds to the BUFF 44

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.11

Jacqez Barksdale run for 2 yds to the BUFF 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Interception+5 ydsPPA -2.82

CJ Ogbonna pass intercepted Bowling Green Penalty, off-side (Evan Branch-Haynes) to the BGSU 49

1st & 5Rush+5 ydsPPA -0.54

CJ Ogbonna run for 5 yds to the BGSU 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.75

CJ Ogbonna pass complete to Jacqez Barksdale for 1 yd to the BGSU 43

2nd & 9Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.30

Jacqez Barksdale run for 6 yds to the BGSU 37

3rd & 3Penalty-5 yds

Buffalo Penalty, false start (Zion Carter) to the BGSU 42

3rd & 8Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.81

CJ Ogbonna pass complete to Jacqez Barksdale for 1 yd to the BGSU 41

4th & 7Interception0 ydsPPA -1.19

CJ Ogbonna pass intercepted

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.64

Terion Stewart run for 2 yds to the BGSU 38

2nd & 8Rush-10 ydsPPA -1.47

Bowling Green Penalty, Offensive holding (Levi Gazarek) to the BGSU 28

2nd & 18Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.16

Ta'ron Keith run for 1 yd to the BGSU 29

3rd & 17Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.07

Terion Stewart run for 2 yds to the BGSU 31

4th & 15Punt0 yds

Jackson Kleather punt for 48 yds

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.59

Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Andrew Schnackenberg, broken up by Cashius Howell

2nd & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -0.08

Cole Snyder pass intercepted

1st & 10Penalty-15 yds

Bowling Green Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Chace Davis) to the BUFF 45

Situational Analysis

Bowling Green

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
36%
22 plays
0%
2 plays
2nd
75%
4 plays
50%
2 plays
50%
8 plays
43%
7 plays
3rd
33%
3 plays
100%
2 plays
0%
2 plays
50%
4 plays
4th
100%
1 play

Buffalo

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
45%
29 plays
2nd
75%
4 plays
20%
5 plays
64%
14 plays
50%
2 plays
3rd
50%
4 plays
33%
3 plays
25%
4 plays
4th
0%
1 play
25%
4 plays