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← Back to GamesSep 29, 2023Week 5
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Louisville by 2.4

Home Win Probability

NC State 43%

Market (Bovada)

NC State +3

Edge: NC State +3 (0.7 pts)

fitted_v1 · Sep 29, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
LouisvilleLouisville
0010313
NC StateNC State
0100010

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q40147-010-010-1010-13
NC StateLouisville

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20LOUNSLOUNSLOUNSLOUNSLOUNSLOUNSNSLOUNSLOUNSLOUNSLOUNSLOUNSLOUNSLOUPUNT834ydPUNT39ydPUNT3-2ydPUNT33ydPUNT38ydPUNT615ydMISS752ydTD1365ydTO628ydPUNT33ydTO314ydEND41ydTO560ydPUNT410ydPUNT3-10ydTD346ydTO413ydFG740ydPUNT3-3ydTO440ydPUNT610ydFG1041ydPUNT32ydPUNT66ydTO10ydEND3-3yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Louisville and NC State
StatisticLouisvilleNC State
Passing21-3513-25
Pass Yards286112
Rush Yards2089
Total Yards306201
Turnovers33
3rd Down4-143-15
Penalties10-8110-88
Possession31:0328:57

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Louisville
passing
Jack Plummer
21/35, 286 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
rushing
Jawhar Jordan
16 CAR, 32 YDS
receiving
Chris Bell
3 REC, 85 YDS, 1 TD
defense
NC State
passing
Brennan Armstrong
13/25, 112 YDS, 2 INT
rushing
Brennan Armstrong
17 CAR, 61 YDS
receiving
Terrell Timmons Jr.
3 REC, 71 YDS
defense
Payton Wilson
2 TFL, 1 PD

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.91

Jack Plummer pass complete to Chris Bell for 8 yds to the LOU 33

2nd & 2Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.30

Jawhar Jordan run for a loss of 1 yard to the LOU 32

3rd & 3Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.91

Jack Plummer pass complete to Josh Lifson for 10 yds to the LOU 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Jawhar Jordan run for 4 yds to the LOU 46

2nd & 6Rush+6 ydsPPA +1.04

Jawhar Jordan run for 6 yds to the NCSU 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Jawhar Jordan

2nd & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.56

Jack Plummer pass complete to Nate Kurisky for 7 yds to the NCSU 41

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.12

Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Isaac Guerendo

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Brock Travelstead punt for 26 yds, fair catch by Jalen Coit at the NCSU 15

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Brennan Armstrong run for 4 yds to the NCSU 19

2nd & 6Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Michael Allen for 5 yds to the NCSU 24

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.45

Delbert Mimms III run for no gain to the NCSU 24

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Caden Noonkester punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Kevin Coleman at the LOU 30

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.00

Jack Plummer run for 8 yds to the LOU 38

2nd & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -1.27

Jawhar Jordan run for no gain to the LOU 38

3rd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.75

Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Jimmy Calloway

4th & 2Penalty-10 yds

Travelstead, Brock pass complete to Guerendo, Isaac for 8 yards to the LOUISVILLE46, PENALTY LOUISVILLE holding (Watts, Antonio) 10 yards to the LOUISVILLE28, NO PLAY.

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Brock Travelstead punt for 26 yds, downed at the NCSU 46

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Kevin Concepcion

2nd & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.09

Michael Allen run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSU 45

3rd & 11Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.77

Brennan Armstrong run for 9 yds to the LOU 46

4th & 2Penalty-5 yds

NC State Penalty, False Start (Derrick Eason) to the NCSU 49

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Caden Noonkester punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Kevin Coleman at the LOU 11

1st & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.37

Jack Plummer pass complete to Jadon Thompson for no gain to the LOU 11

2nd & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.27

Jack Plummer pass complete to Isaac Guerendo for 8 yds to the LOU 19

3rd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Duane Martin, broken up by Payton Wilson

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Brock Travelstead punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Julian Gray at the NCSU 38

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.03

Michael Allen run for 8 yds to the NCSU 46

2nd & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -1.36

Brennan Armstrong run for no gain to the NCSU 46

3rd & 2Rush+16 ydsPPA +2.19

Brennan Armstrong run for 1 yd to the LOU 47 for a 1ST down Louisville Penalty, Personal Foul (Ashton Gillotte) to the LOU 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.78

Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Bradley Rozner

2nd & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.64

Michael Allen run for a loss of 3 yards to the LOU 41

3rd & 13Sack-6 ydsPPA -1.48

Brennan Armstrong sacked by Ramon Puryear for a loss of 6 yards to the LOU 47

4th & 19Punt+34 yds

Caden Noonkester punt for 24 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LOU 23 Louisville Penalty, Offensive Holding (D'Angelo Hutchinson) to the LOU 13

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.26

Jawhar Jordan run for 2 yds to the LOU 15

2nd & 8Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.26

Jack Plummer pass complete to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce for 15 yds to the LOU 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+26 ydsPPA +2.28

Jack Plummer pass complete to Jawhar Jordan for 26 yds to the NCSU 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+10 yds

Plummer, Jack pass incomplete to Thrash, Jamari, PENALTY NCSU holding (Fitzgerald, Bishop) 10 yards to the NCSU34, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LOUISVILLE.

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.83

Jawhar Jordan run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSU 35

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.93

Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Chris Bell

3rd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Jamari Thrash

4th & 11Field Goal Missed+52 yds

Brock Travelstead 52 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.83

Brennan Armstrong run for 1 yd to the NCSU 36

2nd & 9Penalty+10 yds

Armstrong, Brennan pass incomplete to Gray, Julian, PENALTY LOUISVILLE holding (Perry, Benjamin) 10 yards to the NCSU46, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NCSU.

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Julian Gray

2nd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.32

Brennan Armstrong run for 6 yds to the LOU 48

3rd & 4Penalty-10 yds

Armstrong, Brennan pass complete to Lesane, Keyon for 2 yards to the LOUISVILLE46, PENALTY NCSU holding (Cooper, Lyndon) 10 yards to the NCSU42, NO PLAY.

3rd & 14Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.36

Michael Allen run for 13 yds to the LOU 45

4th & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +2.14

Payton Wilson run for 3 yds to the LOU 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.28

Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Terrell Timmons Jr. for 6 yds to the LOU 36

2nd & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.49

Delbert Mimms III run for 2 yds to the LOU 34

3rd & 2Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +0.96

Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Terrell Timmons Jr. for 20 yds to the LOU 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.18

Brennan Armstrong run for 2 yds to the LOU 12

2nd & 8Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Brennan Armstrong run for 5 yds to the LOU 7

3rd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.18

Brennan Armstrong run for 2 yds to the LOU 5

4th & 1Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA +1.17

Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Trent Pennix for 1 yd to the LOU 4 for a 1ST down

1st & 4Rushing Touchdown+4 ydsPPA +1.69

Delbert Mimms III 4 Yd Run (Brayden Narveson Kick)

1st & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.70

Jack Plummer pass complete to Maurice Turner for no gain to the LOU 25

2nd & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.54

Jack Plummer pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 10 yds to the LOU 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.15

Maurice Turner run for 12 yds to the LOU 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.04

Jack Plummer pass complete to Jimmy Calloway for 16 yds to the NCSU 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Jack Plummer pass complete to Nate Kurisky for 5 yds to the NCSU 32

2nd & 5Sack-15 ydsPPA -3.64

Jack Plummer sacked by Sean Brown for a loss of 15 yards to the NCSU 47 Jack Plummer fumbled, forced by Sean Brown, recovered by NCSU Payton Wilson , return for 0 yards

1st & 10Rush-5 ydsPPA -2.16

Demarcus Jones II run for a loss of 5 yards to the NCSU 42

2nd & 15Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.62

Brennan Armstrong run for 8 yds to the 50 yard line

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.84

Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Bradley Rozner, broken up by Quincy Riley

4th & 7Punt+43 yds

Caden Noonkester punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Kevin Coleman at the LOU 13 Louisville Penalty, Personal Foul (Chris Bell) to the LOU 7

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.53

Jawhar Jordan run for 8 yds to the LOU 15

2nd & 2Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.01

Jack Plummer run for 6 yds to the LOU 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Interception Return+6 ydsPPA -0.67

Jack Plummer pass intercepted Shyheim Battle return for 6 yds to the LOU 32

1st & 10Pass Reception-2 ydsPPA -0.93

Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Delbert Mimms III for a loss of 2 yards to the LOU 34

2nd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.92

Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Keyon Lesane

3rd & 12Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.38

Michael Allen run for 3 yds to the LOU 31

4th & 9Field Goal Good+48 yds

Brayden Narveson 48 Yd Field Goal

0th & 9End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

Armstrong, Brennan rush for 1 yard to the NCSU26, PENALTY NCSU holding (Carter Jr., Anthony) 10 yards to the NCSU15, NO PLAY.

1st & 20Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.09

Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Bradley Rozner for 2 yds to the NCSU 17

2nd & 18Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.04

Brennan Armstrong run for 6 yds to the NCSU 23

3rd & 12Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +2.46

Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Porter Rooks for 17 yds to the NCSU 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+45 ydsPPA +2.20

Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Terrell Timmons Jr. for 45 yds to the LOU 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -4.44

Brennan Armstrong pass intercepted, touchback. Cam'Ron Kelly return for no gain

1st & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.14

Jack Plummer pass complete to Jimmy Calloway for 15 yds to the LOU 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Jack Plummer pass complete to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce for 3 yds to the LOU 38

2nd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.55

Jawhar Jordan run for 2 yds to the LOU 40

3rd & 5Sack-10 ydsPPA -1.11

Jack Plummer sacked by Sean Brown for a loss of 10 yards to the LOU 30

4th & 15Punt0 yds

Brock Travelstead punt for 45 yds, downed at the NCSU 25

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Michael Allen run for 1 yd to the NCSU 26

2nd & 9Pass Reception-2 ydsPPA -0.51

Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Keyon Lesane for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSU 24

3rd & 11Sack-9 ydsPPA -0.22

Brennan Armstrong sacked by Ashton Gillotte for a loss of 9 yards to the NCSU 15

4th & 20Punt+12 yds

Caden Noonkester punt for 43 yds , Kevin Coleman returns for 12 yds to the NCSU 46

1st & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +0.73

Jack Plummer pass complete to Nate Kurisky for 16 yds to the NCSU 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-9 ydsPPA -2.19

Jack Plummer sacked by Payton Wilson for a loss of 9 yards to the NCSU 39 Louisville Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Jack Plummer) to the NCSU 39

2nd & 19Passing Touchdown+39 ydsPPA +5.01

Chris Bell 39 Yd pass from Jack Plummer (Brock Travelstead Kick)

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.00

Brennan Armstrong run for 8 yds to the NCSU 38

2nd & 2Penalty-10 yds

Mimms III, Delbert rush for 4 yards to the NCSU42, PENALTY NCSU holding (Belton, Anthony) 10 yards to the NCSU28, NO PLAY.

2nd & 12Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +2.33

Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Bradley Rozner for 15 yds to the NCSU 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Bradley Rozner

2nd & 10Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+13 ydsPPA -1.38

Brennan Armstrong run for 13 yds to the LOU 44 Brennan Armstrong fumbled, forced by Cam'Ron Kelly, recovered by LOU Ramon Puryear

1st & 10Pass Reception+26 ydsPPA +1.56

Jack Plummer pass complete to Kevin Coleman for 26 yds to the NCSU 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.42

Jack Plummer run for 1 yd to the NCSU 29

2nd & 9Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +0.69

Jack Plummer pass complete to Josh Lifson for 2 yds to the NCSU 27 for a 1ST down NC State Penalty, Personal Foul (Sean Brown) to the NCSU 14 for a 1ST down. Sean Brown ejected for targeting.

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Jawhar Jordan

2nd & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.54

Jack Plummer run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSU 16

3rd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.67

Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Jadon Thompson, broken up by Aydan White

4th & 12Field Goal Good+33 yds

Brock Travelstead 33 Yd Field Goal

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Michael Allen run for no gain to the NCSU 25

2nd & 10Penalty-5 yds

NC State Penalty, False Start (Lyndon Cooper) to the NCSU 20

2nd & 15Pass Reception-4 ydsPPA -0.21

Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Michael Allen for a loss of 4 yards to the NCSU 16

3rd & 19Penalty-5 yds

NC State Penalty, False Start (Anthony Belton) to the NCSU 11

3rd & 24Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.05

Brennan Armstrong run for 11 yds to the NCSU 22 NC State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Derrick Eason) declined

4th & 13Punt+26 yds

Caden Noonkester punt for 49 yds , Kevin Coleman returns for 26 yds to the NCSU 45

1st & 10Sack-6 ydsPPA -2.32

Jack Plummer sacked by Payton Wilson for a loss of 6 yards to the LOU 49

2nd & 16Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.77

Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Maurice Turner

3rd & 16Pass Reception+31 ydsPPA +3.95

Jack Plummer pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 31 yds to the NCSU 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

Plummer, Jack pass incomplete to Thrash, Jamari, PENALTY NCSU pass interference (White, Aydan) 15 yards to the NCSU5, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LOUISVILLE.

1st & 5Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -5.12

Jack Plummer pass intercepted, touchback. Bishop Fitzgerald return for no gain

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.47

Michael Allen run for 1 yd to the NCSU 21

2nd & 9Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.30

Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 7 yds to the NCSU 28

3rd & 2Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.86

Delbert Mimms III run for 2 yds to the NCSU 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.86

Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Terrell Timmons Jr.

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.46

Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.22

Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Keyon Lesane

4th & 10Punt+4 yds

Caden Noonkester punt for 51 yds , Kevin Coleman returns for 4 yds to the LOU 23

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.87

Jack Plummer pass complete to Kevin Coleman for 8 yds to the LOU 31

2nd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.88

Jawhar Jordan run for 1 yd to the LOU 32

3rd & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA +1.08

Jawhar Jordan run for 4 yds to the LOU 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Jadon Thompson

2nd & 10Penalty-10 yds

Plummer, Jack rush for 3 yards to the LOUISVILLE39, PENALTY LOUISVILLE holding (Brown, Renato) 10 yards to the LOUISVILLE26, NO PLAY.

2nd & 20Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.06

Jack Plummer run for 6 yds to the LOU 32

3rd & 14Pass Reception+38 ydsPPA +4.29

Jack Plummer pass complete to Chris Bell for 38 yds to the NCSU 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.42

Jawhar Jordan run for 1 yd to the NCSU 29

2nd & 9Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.22

Jack Plummer pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 3 yds to the NCSU 26

3rd & 6Penalty-10 yds

Plummer, Jack pass incomplete, PENALTY LOUISVILLE holding (Brown, Renato) 10 yards to the NCSU36, NO PLAY.

3rd & 16Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.89

Jack Plummer pass incomplete

4th & 16Field Goal Good+53 yds

Brock Travelstead 53 Yd Field Goal

4th & 16Kickoff Return (Offense)+38 yds

Brock Travelstead kickoff for 63 yds , Julian Gray return for 38 yds to the NCSU 40

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.12

Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Kevin Concepcion

2nd & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.48

Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Delbert Mimms III for 2 yds to the NCSU 42

3rd & 8Rush0 ydsPPA -0.55

Brennan Armstrong run for no gain to the NCSU 42

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Caden Noonkester punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Kevin Coleman at the LOU 22

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Jawhar Jordan run for 5 yds to the LOU 27

2nd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.43

Jawhar Jordan run for 2 yds to the LOU 29

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.44

Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Jamari Thrash, broken up by Aydan White

4th & 3Penalty+5 yds

Travelstead, Brock punt 47 yards to the NCSU24, downed, PENALTY NCSU running into kicker (Baldwin, Jakolbe) 5 yards to the LOUISVILLE34, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LOUISVILLE.

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Louisville Penalty, False Start (Michael Gonzalez) to the LOU 29

1st & 15Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.62

Jawhar Jordan run for a loss of 1 yard to the LOU 28

2nd & 16Rush0 ydsPPA -0.23

Jawhar Jordan run for no gain to the LOU 28

3rd & 16Rush0 ydsPPA -0.10

Jawhar Jordan run for no gain to the LOU 28

4th & 16Punt0 yds

Brock Travelstead punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jalen Coit at the NCSU 34

1st & 10Pass Interception Return+14 ydsPPA -1.66

Brennan Armstrong pass intercepted Quincy Riley return for 14 yds to the NCSU 26

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.59

TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSU 27

2nd & 11Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.87

TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSU 28

3rd & 12Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.19

TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSU 29

Situational Analysis

Louisville

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
44%
27 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
25%
4 plays
33%
3 plays
63%
8 plays
33%
6 plays
3rd
33%
6 plays
0%
1 play
29%
7 plays
4th

NC State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
20%
20 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
0%
1 play
50%
2 plays
33%
9 plays
60%
5 plays
3rd
60%
5 plays
0%
3 plays
57%
7 plays
4th
100%
2 plays