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← Back to GamesSep 7, 2023Week 2

House Prediction

Model Margin

Louisville by 26.4

Home Win Probability

Louisville 91%

Market (William Hill (New Jersey))

Louisville -43.5

Edge: Murray State +43.5 (17.1 pts)

fitted_v1 · Sep 7, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Murray State
00000
LouisvilleLouisville
721141456

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q40142842567-014-021-028-035-042-056-0
LouisvilleMurray State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20MSLOUMSLOUMSLOUMSLOUMSLOUMSLOUMSLOULOUMSLOUMSLOUMSLOUMSLOUMSLOUMSLOUPUNT39ydTD676ydPUNT3-4ydPUNT3-3ydPUNT632ydTD985ydPUNT930ydTO238ydPUNT34ydTD269ydPUNT710ydTD280ydPUNT3-1ydTO739ydPUNT46ydTO640ydTD659ydTO40ydTD954ydTO11ydTD336ydPUNT38ydTD1074ydPUNT34ydDOWNS833ydPUNT33ydEND745yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Murray State and Louisville
StatisticMurray StateLouisville
Passing8-2225-34
Pass Yards72346
Rush Yards94344
Total Yards166690
Turnovers32
3rd Down3-144-11
Penalties7-657-44
Possession28:5331:07

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Murray State
passing
DJ Williams
7/16, 68 YDS
rushing
Kywon Morgan
11 CAR, 34 YDS
receiving
Jacob Bell
4 REC, 26 YDS
defense
Louisville
passing
Jack Plummer
16/22, 247 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
rushing
Jawhar Jordan
7 CAR, 135 YDS, 2 TD
receiving
Jamari Thrash
3 REC, 82 YDS, 1 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Kywon Morgan run for 5 yds to the MUR 30

2nd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.31

Kywon Morgan run for 3 yds to the MUR 33

3rd & 2Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.50

DJ Williams pass complete to Jacob Bell for 1 yd to the MUR 34

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Orion Phillips punt for 46 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -0.77

Jack Plummer pass complete to Jamari Thrash for a loss of 1 yard to the LOU 23

2nd & 11Rush0 ydsPPA -0.28

Jawhar Jordan run for no gain to the LOU 23

3rd & 11Pass Reception+30 ydsPPA +3.58

Jack Plummer pass complete to Kevin Coleman for 30 yds to the MUR 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Louisville Penalty, Illegal Substitution (-5 Yards) to the LOU 48

1st & 15Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.77

Jack Plummer pass complete to Jimmy Calloway for 8 yds to the MUR 44

2nd & 7Pass Reception+32 ydsPPA +1.44

Jack Plummer pass complete to Jawhar Jordan for 32 yds to the MUR 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+12 ydsPPA +2.53

Jamari Thrash run for 12 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK)

1st & 10Sack-5 ydsPPA -0.59

DJ Williams sacked by Ashton Gillotte for a loss of 5 yards to the MUR 8

2nd & 15Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.01

Kywon Morgan run for 4 yds to the MUR 12

3rd & 11Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.04

DJ Williams run for 2 yds to the MUR 14

4th & 9Penalty-5 yds

Murray State Penalty, False Start (Chris Hill Jr.) to the MUR 9

4th & 14Punt0 yds

Orion Phillips punt for 43 yds, downed at the LOU 48

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.40

Jawhar Jordan run for 3 yds to the MUR 49

2nd & 7Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.66

Jack Plummer pass complete to Kevin Coleman for 2 yds to the MUR 47

3rd & 5Penalty0 yds

Louisville Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Jack Plummer) to the LOU 45

4th & 13Punt0 yds

Brock Travelstead punt for 55 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

DJ Williams pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Cortezz Jones run for 5 yds to the MUR 25

3rd & 5Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +2.90

DJ Williams pass complete to Cortezz Jones for 23 yds to the MUR 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.66

Cortezz Jones run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.65

DJ Williams run for 2 yds to the LOU 48

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.94

DJ Williams pass incomplete

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Orion Phillips punt for 35 yds

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.44

Jack Plummer pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.98

Jack Plummer pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 10 yds to the LOU 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+25 ydsPPA +2.24

Isaac Guerendo run for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Jack Plummer pass complete to Jimmy Calloway for 4 yds to the MUR 46

2nd & 6Penalty+15 yds

PLUMMER, Jack pass deep to the left incomplete intended for THRASH, Jamari broken up by REED, KaVan at the MUR5. PENALTY MUR Pass Interference on REED, KaVan enforced 15 yards to the MUR31 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.21

Isaac Guerendo run for 10 yds to the MUR 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Isaac Guerendo run for 4 yds to the MUR 17

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.41

Jack Plummer pass incomplete

3rd & 6Penalty+15 yds

PLUMMER, Jack pass deep to the right incomplete intended for HUGGINS-BRUCE, Ahmari broken up by REED, KaVan at the MUR0. PENALTY MUR Pass Interference on REED, KaVan enforced at the spot of the foul for 15 yards to the MUR2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.69

Isaac Guerendo run for 1 yd to the MUR 1

2nd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +1.90

Isaac Guerendo run for 1 yd for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK)

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

DJ Williams run for 5 yds to the MUR 30

2nd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Cortezz Jones run for 4 yds to the MUR 34

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.95

DJ Williams run for 2 yds to the MUR 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Q'Daryius Jennings run for 6 yds to the MUR 42

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.18

DJ Williams pass incomplete

3rd & 4Rush+13 ydsPPA +2.45

DJ Williams run for 13 yds to the LOU 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.00

Cortezz Jones run for no gain to the LOU 45

2nd & 10Penalty-5 yds

Murray State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the 50 yard line

2nd & 15Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.05

DJ Williams pass complete to Jacob Bell for 5 yds to the LOU 45

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.86

DJ Williams pass incomplete

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Orion Phillips punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Kevin Coleman at the LOU 7

1st & 10Rush+38 ydsPPA +2.60

Jawhar Jordan run for 38 yds to the LOU 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -2.72

Jack Plummer pass intercepted

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

DJ Williams pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.27

Kywon Morgan run for a loss of 2 yards to the MUR 15

3rd & 12Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.04

DJ Williams pass complete to Cole Rusk for 6 yds to the MUR 21

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Orion Phillips punt for 52 yds

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)-4 ydsPPA -1.33

Jack Plummer run for a loss of 4 yards to the LOU 27 Jack Plummer fumbled, recovered by LOU Jawhar Jordan

2nd & 14Passing Touchdown+73 ydsPPA +6.94

Jack Plummer pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 73 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK)

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Kywon Morgan run for 6 yds to the MUR 41

2nd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.45

Kywon Morgan run for 3 yds to the MUR 44

3rd & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.02

DJ Williams pass incomplete

4th & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +2.13

DJ Williams run for 2 yds to the MUR 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.38

Kylan Galbreath run for a loss of 1 yard to the MUR 45

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.86

DJ Williams pass incomplete

3rd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

DJ Williams pass incomplete

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Orion Phillips punt for 55 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.80

Jack Plummer pass complete to Jimmy Calloway for 8 yds to the LOU 28

2nd & 2Rushing Touchdown+72 ydsPPA +5.59

Jawhar Jordan run for 72 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Kywon Morgan run for 2 yds to the MUR 27

2nd & 8Penalty-10 yds

QB Keeper WILLIAMS, DJ rush up the middle for a gain of 6 yards to the MUR33 (KELLY, Cam'Ron). PENALTY MUR Holding on FRYE, Jacob enforced 10 yards from the MUR27 to the MUR17 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

2nd & 18Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.08

DJ Williams pass complete to Jacob Bell for 7 yds to the MUR 24

3rd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.13

DJ Williams pass incomplete

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Orion Phillips punt for 46 yds , returns for no gain to the LOU 10

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Louisville Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the LOU 5

1st & 15Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.08

Isaac Guerendo run for 6 yds to the LOU 11

2nd & 9Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.12

Isaac Guerendo run for 2 yds to the LOU 13

3rd & 7Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.82

Jack Plummer pass complete to Isaac Guerendo for 7 yds to the LOU 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Jack Plummer pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+25 ydsPPA +2.67

Jack Plummer pass complete to Isaac Guerendo for 25 yds to the LOU 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Louisville Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the LOU 40

1st & 15Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Jack Plummer pass complete to Isaac Guerendo for 4 yds to the LOU 44

2nd & 11Penalty+5 yds

PLUMMER, Jack pass short up the middle complete for 31 yards to GUERENDO, Isaac caught at the LOU48 and advanced to the MUR25 (ALBERTY, Charles). PENALTY Before the snap, MUR Illegal Substitution enforced 5 yards from the LOU44 to the LOU49. NO PLAY (replay the down).

2nd & 6Interception0 ydsPPA -2.56

Jack Plummer pass intercepted

0th & 6End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Penalty-9 yds

JORDAN, Jawhar rush to the left for a gain of 75 yards to the MUR0, TOUCHDOWN LOU, score nullified by penalty, clock 14:48 (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY LOU Holding on HUDSON, Bryan enforced 9 yards from the LOU25 to the LOU16 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 19Pass Reception-3 ydsPPA -0.22

Jack Plummer pass complete to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce for a loss of 3 yards to the LOU 13

2nd & 22Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.04

Jack Plummer pass incomplete

3rd & 22Penalty-10 yds

Louisville Penalty, Offensive Holding (Michael Gonzalez) to the LOU 20

3rd & 15Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.24

Jack Plummer pass complete to Jawhar Jordan for 11 yds to the LOU 31

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Brock Travelstead punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Michael Fox at the MUR 19

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.75

Kywon Morgan run for 11 yds to the MUR 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.37

Kywon Morgan run for 6 yds to the MUR 36

2nd & 4Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.40

DJ Williams pass complete to Golden Eke for 13 yds to the MUR 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.83

DJ Williams pass complete to Jacob Bell for 13 yds to the LOU 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.18

Kywon Morgan run for a loss of 2 yards to the LOU 40

2nd & 12Fumble Recovery (Opponent)-1 ydsPPA -2.72

Parker Perry run for a loss of 1 yard to the LOU 41 Parker Perry fumbled, recovered by LOU Devin Neal

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.18

Jack Plummer run for 14 yds to the MUR 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +0.78

Jack Plummer pass complete to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce for 20 yds to the MUR 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.20

Jawhar Jordan run for 6 yds to the MUR 19

2nd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.16

Jack Plummer run for 3 yds to the MUR 16

3rd & 1Rush+15 ydsPPA +1.72

Jawhar Jordan run for 15 yds to the MUR 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +0.94

Jawhar Jordan run for 1 yd for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK)

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.91

Cortezz Jones run for 8 yds to the MUR 33

2nd & 2Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.08

Isaiah Hill run for 2 yds to the MUR 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

(06:03) JONES, Cortezz rush up the middle for a gain of 1 yard to the MUR36 (QUINN, T.J.), clock 05:58. PENALTY MUR Holding on KOFOWO, Henry enforced 10 yards from the MUR35 to the MUR25 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 20Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.28

Eric Phoenix pass incomplete

2nd & 20Interception0 ydsPPA +0.18

Eric Phoenix pass intercepted

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Isaac Guerendo run for 5 yds to the MUR 49

2nd & 5Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +1.21

Brock Domann pass complete to Allan Houston Iii for 17 yds to the MUR 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.37

Isaac Guerendo run for 7 yds to the MUR 25

2nd & 3Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.08

Isaac Guerendo run for a loss of 3 yards to the MUR 28

3rd & 6Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Brock Domann pass complete to Allan Houston Iii for 4 yds to the MUR 24

4th & 2Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA +1.04

Brock Domann pass complete to Chris Bell for 2 yds to the MUR 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Isaac Guerendo run for 5 yds to the MUR 17

2nd & 5Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.52

Brock Domann pass complete to Isaac Guerendo for 11 yds to the MUR 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Rushing Touchdown+6 ydsPPA +2.05

Ahmari Huggins-Bruce run for 6 yds for a TD (Nick Lopez KICK)

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+1 ydsPPA -1.76

Q'Daryius Jennings run for 1 yd to the MUR 36 Q'Daryius Jennings fumbled, recovered by LOU TJ Quinn

1st & 10Rush+19 ydsPPA +0.43

Evan Conley run for 19 yds to the MUR 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.89

Keyjuan Brown run for 13 yds to the MUR 4 for a 1ST down

1st & 4Rushing Touchdown+4 ydsPPA +1.69

Keyjuan Brown run for 4 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK)

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.89

Kywon Morgan run for a loss of 2 yards to the MUR 23

2nd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.25

Eric Phoenix pass incomplete

3rd & 12Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.31

Eric Phoenix run for 10 yds to the MUR 33

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Orion Phillips punt for 44 yds

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.25

Keyjuan Brown run for 14 yds to the LOU 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Keyjuan Brown run for 5 yds to the LOU 45

2nd & 5Fumble Recovery (Own)-2 ydsPPA -1.56

run for a loss of 2 yards to the LOU 43 fumbled, recovered by LOU Harrison Bailey

3rd & 7Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.25

Harrison Bailey pass complete to Allan Houston Iii for 6 yds to the LOU 49

4th & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA +2.34

Keyjuan Brown run for 4 yds to the MUR 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.60

Harrison Bailey pass complete to Cataurus Hicks for 11 yds to the MUR 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.72

Harrison Bailey pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.52

Keyjuan Brown run for 2 yds to the MUR 34

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.03

Harrison Bailey pass incomplete

4th & 8Passing Touchdown+34 ydsPPA +5.28

Harrison Bailey pass complete to Joey Gatewood for 34 yds for a TD (Nick Lopez KICK)

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Kylan Galbreath run for no gain to the MUR 25

2nd & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Eric Phoenix pass complete to Kylan Galbreath for 4 yds to the MUR 29

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

Eric Phoenix pass incomplete

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Orion Phillips punt for 44 yds

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.35

Keyjuan Brown run for 9 yds to the LOU 39

2nd & 1Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.06

Keyjuan Brown run for 6 yds to the LOU 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.66

Pierce Clarkson pass complete to William Fowles for 7 yds to the MUR 48

2nd & 3Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.14

Keyjuan Brown run for 3 yds to the MUR 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.00

Pierce Clarkson pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Keyjuan Brown run for 4 yds to the MUR 41

3rd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.40

Pierce Clarkson run for 3 yds to the MUR 38

4th & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -1.97

Keyjuan Brown run for 1 yd to the MUR 37

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.07

Kylan Galbreath run for no gain to the MUR 37

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.28

Kylan Galbreath run for 3 yds to the MUR 40

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.53

Jayden Stinson pass incomplete

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Orion Phillips punt for 34 yds, downed at the LOU 26

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.28

Kaden Moorman run for 9 yds to the LOU 35

2nd & 1Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.68

Kaden Moorman run for a loss of 2 yards to the LOU 33

3rd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA +1.36

Kaden Moorman run for 4 yds to the LOU 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+25 ydsPPA +1.96

Kaden Moorman run for 25 yds to the MUR 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.78

Mario Agyen run for no gain to the MUR 38

2nd & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.44

Brady Allen pass complete to Elijah Downing for 7 yds to the MUR 31

3rd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.50

Kaden Moorman run for 2 yds to the MUR 29

Situational Analysis

Murray State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
40%
20 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
0%
1 play
20%
5 plays
20%
5 plays
43%
7 plays
3rd
33%
3 plays
50%
4 plays
0%
2 plays
40%
5 plays
4th
100%
1 play

Louisville

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
50%
2 plays
100%
2 plays
65%
31 plays
50%
4 plays
2nd
67%
6 plays
33%
6 plays
50%
8 plays
33%
3 plays
3rd
67%
3 plays
0%
2 plays
67%
3 plays
100%
2 plays
4th
67%
3 plays
100%
1 play