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← Back to GamesSep 24, 2023Week 4

House Prediction

Model Margin

New Mexico State by 5.1

Home Win Probability

Hawai'i 34%

Market (Bovada)

Hawai'i -4

Edge: New Mexico State +4 (9.1 pts)

fitted_v1 · Sep 24, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
New Mexico StateNew Mexico State
7100017
Hawai'iHawai'i
0371020

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014280-70-103-1710-1717-1720-17
Hawai'iNew Mexico State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20NMSHAWNMSHAWNMSHAWNMSHAWNMSHAWNMSHAWHAWNMSHAWNMSHAWNMSHAWPUNT35ydPUNT516ydTD668ydPUNT39ydFG1452ydPUNT516ydTO360ydFG522ydTD873ydMISS941ydEND1-1ydTD875ydPUNT3-4ydMISS545ydTO1165ydPUNT3-2ydTD1143ydPUNT625ydFG1165yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing New Mexico State and Hawai'i
StatisticNew Mexico StateHawai'i
Passing9-1526-37
Pass Yards155245
Rush Yards18098
Total Yards335343
Turnovers11
3rd Down5-106-15
Penalties3-404-25
Possession26:4733:13

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

New Mexico State
passing
Diego Pavia
9/15, 155 YDS, 2 TD
rushing
Diego Pavia
12 CAR, 97 YDS
receiving
Jordin Parker
1 REC, 42 YDS
defense
Hawai'i
passing
Brayden Schager
26/37, 245 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Jordan Johnson
9 CAR, 44 YDS
receiving
Pofele Ashlock
7 REC, 77 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Diego Pavia run for 5 yds to the NMSU 30

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.75

Diego Pavia pass incomplete

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

Diego Pavia pass incomplete

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Zach Haynes punt for 46 yds, downed at the HAW 24

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.23

Brayden Schager pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 9 yds to the HAW 33

2nd & 1Rush+5 ydsPPA -0.03

Landon Sims run for 5 yds to the HAW 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Brayden Schager pass complete to Jalen Walthall for 4 yds to the HAW 42

2nd & 6Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.65

Brayden Schager pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 2 yds to the HAW 44

3rd & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.68

Brayden Schager run for 1 yd to the HAW 45

4th & 3Penalty-5 yds

Hawai'i Penalty, Delay Of Game (-5 Yards) to the HAW 40

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Matthew Shipley punt for 28 yds, downed at the NMSU 32

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Diego Pavia pass complete to Chris Bellamy for 4 yds to the NMSU 36

2nd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.55

Star Thomas run for 2 yds to the NMSU 38

3rd & 4Rush+12 ydsPPA +2.38

Diego Pavia run for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.84

Diego Pavia run for 8 yds to the HAW 42

2nd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.14

Star Thomas run for 3 yds to the HAW 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+39 ydsPPA +3.14

Diego Pavia pass complete to Monte Watkins for 39 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK)

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.29

Brayden Schager run for 6 yds to the HAW 26

2nd & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.60

Jordan Johnson run for 1 yd to the HAW 27

3rd & 3Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.26

Brayden Schager pass complete to Jalen Walthall for 2 yds to the HAW 29

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Matthew Shipley punt for 41 yds

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.67

Jonathan Brady run for 7 yds to the NMSU 37

2nd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.36

Diego Pavia run for 4 yds to the NMSU 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.68

Jamoni Jones run for 2 yds to the NMSU 43

2nd & 8Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.66

Diego Pavia run for 9 yds to the HAW 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.36

Diego Pavia run for 3 yds to the HAW 45

2nd & 7Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Diego Pavia run for 6 yds to the HAW 39

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.71

Eli Stowers run for 3 yds to the HAW 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.72

Diego Pavia pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.73

Jamoni Jones run for 9 yds to the HAW 27

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.30

Jamoni Jones run for 2 yds to the HAW 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Monte Watkins run for 5 yds to the HAW 20

2nd & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.37

Star Thomas run for 1 yd to the HAW 19

3rd & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.43

Star Thomas run for 1 yd to the HAW 18

4th & 3Field Goal Good+35 yds

Ethan Albertson 35 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.91

Landon Sims run for 8 yds to the HAW 33

2nd & 2Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.21

Landon Sims run for 5 yds to the HAW 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Jordan Johnson run for 4 yds to the HAW 42

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.05

Brayden Schager pass incomplete

3rd & 6Sack-1 ydsPPA -0.73

Brayden Schager sacked by Jordan Vincent for a loss of 1 yard to the HAW 41

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Matthew Shipley punt for 38 yds

1st & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +1.18

Star Thomas run for 15 yds to the NMSU 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+44 ydsPPA +2.53

Diego Pavia run for 44 yds to the HAW 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+1 ydsPPA -4.38

Star Thomas run for 1 yd to the NMSU 40 Star Thomas fumbled, recovered by HAW Daniel Williams

1st & 10Rush+19 ydsPPA +0.56

Jordan Johnson run for 19 yds to the NMSU 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.68

Jordan Johnson run for a loss of 3 yards to the NMSU 24

2nd & 13Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.14

Brayden Schager pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 6 yds to the NMSU 18

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.59

Brayden Schager pass incomplete

4th & 7Field Goal Good+35 yds

Matthew Shipley 35 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.37

Diego Pavia pass complete to Donovan Faupel for 15 yds to the NMSU 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.15

Diego Pavia pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.82

Diego Pavia run for no gain to the NMSU 42

3rd & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)+17 ydsPPA +3.29

Diego Pavia pass complete to Star Thomas for 17 yds Star Thomas fumbled, recovered by NMSU Shiyazh Pete for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +0.61

Diego Pavia pass complete to Thomaz Whitford for 20 yds to the HAW 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-6 ydsPPA -1.06

Diego Pavia sacked by Wynden Ho'ohuli for a loss of 6 yards to the HAW 27

2nd & 16Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.17

Eli Stowers run for 6 yds to the HAW 21

3rd & 10Passing Touchdown+21 ydsPPA +3.52

Diego Pavia pass complete to Star Thomas for 21 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK)

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Jordan Johnson run for 5 yds to the HAW 30

2nd & 5Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.13

Brayden Schager pass complete to Jalen Walthall for 9 yds to the HAW 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Jordan Johnson run for 3 yds to the HAW 42

2nd & 7Penalty-5 yds

Hawai'i Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the HAW 37

2nd & 12Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.88

Brayden Schager pass complete to Steven McBride for 9 yds to the HAW 46

3rd & 3Penalty+15 yds

New Mexico State Penalty, Personal Foul (Myles Rowser) to the NMSU 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.66

Brayden Schager pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.89

Brayden Schager pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.02

Brayden Schager pass incomplete

4th & 10Field Goal Missed+51 yds

Matthew Shipley 51 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.99

[NHSG] Kneel down by NMS at NMS33 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Brayden Schager pass complete to Jalen Walthall for 7 yds to the HAW 32

2nd & 3Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.10

Brayden Schager pass complete to Steven McBride for 12 yds to the HAW 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.16

Brayden Schager run for no gain to the HAW 44

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.73

Brayden Schager run for 1 yd to the HAW 45

3rd & 9Penalty-5 yds

Hawai'i Penalty, False Start (Pofele Ashlock) to the HAW 40

3rd & 14Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +3.40

Brayden Schager pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 15 yds to the NMSU 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+29 ydsPPA +0.91

Brayden Schager pass complete to Koali Nishigaya for 29 yds to the NMSU 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.88

Brayden Schager pass complete to Koali Nishigaya for 12 yds to the NMSU 4 for a 1ST down

1st & 4Rushing Touchdown+4 ydsPPA +1.69

Brayden Schager run for 4 yds for a TD (Matthew Shipley KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Brayden Schager pass incomplete

2nd & 10Sack-9 ydsPPA -1.79

Brayden Schager sacked by Izaiah Reed for a loss of 9 yards to the HAW 37

3rd & 19Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.01

Brayden Schager pass complete to Jalen Walthall for 5 yds to the HAW 42

4th & 14Punt0 yds

Matthew Shipley punt for 29 yds, downed at the NMSU 29

1st & 10Pass Reception+42 ydsPPA +2.99

Diego Pavia pass complete to Jordin Parker for 42 yds to the HAW 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.29

Diego Pavia run for 2 yds to the HAW 27

2nd & 8Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.48

Jamoni Jones run for 1 yd to the HAW 26

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.84

Diego Pavia pass incomplete

4th & 7Field Goal Missed+43 yds

Ethan Albertson 43 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.47

Brayden Schager pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 2 yds to the HAW 28

2nd & 8Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.92

Brayden Schager pass complete to Steven McBride for 14 yds to the HAW 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

David Cordero run for 3 yds to the HAW 45

2nd & 7Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -1.06

Brayden Schager pass complete to Koali Nishigaya for no gain to the HAW 45

3rd & 2Rush+4 ydsPPA +1.35

Brayden Schager run for 4 yds to the NMSU 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.53

Landon Sims run for 10 yds to the NMSU 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.77

Brayden Schager pass complete to Landon Sims for 9 yds to the NMSU 27

2nd & 1Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +0.19

Brayden Schager pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 21 yds to the NMSU 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Sack-2 ydsPPA -0.62

Brayden Schager sacked by Sone Aupiu for a loss of 2 yards to the NMSU 8

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.27

Brayden Schager pass incomplete

3rd & 8Fumble Recovery (Opponent)-1 ydsPPA -4.05

Brayden Schager run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMSU 9 Brayden Schager fumbled, recovered by NMSU Keyshaun Elliott

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.33

Makhilyn Young run for no gain to the NMSU 9

2nd & 10Pass Reception-2 ydsPPA -0.18

Diego Pavia pass complete to Star Thomas for a loss of 2 yards to the NMSU 7

3rd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.04

Diego Pavia pass incomplete

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Zach Haynes punt for 38 yds

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.94

Brayden Schager pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.28

Brayden Schager run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMSU 44

3rd & 11Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +2.83

Brayden Schager pass complete to Jordan Johnson for 17 yds to the NMSU 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

Hawai'i Penalty, Offensive Holding (Luke Felix-Fualalo) to the NMSU 37

1st & 20Fumble Recovery (Own)-9 ydsPPA -2.57

Brayden Schager run for a loss of 9 yards to the NMSU 23 Brayden Schager fumbled, recovered by HAW Josh Atkins

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.53

Brayden Schager pass incomplete

3rd & 6Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Brayden Schager pass complete to Jalen Walthall for 5 yds to the NMSU 18

4th & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.69

Jordan Johnson run for 2 yds to the NMSU 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.88

Jordan Johnson run for 12 yds to the NMSU 4 for a 1ST down

1st & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.52

Jordan Johnson run for 1 yd to the NMSU 3

2nd & 3Rush0 ydsPPA -0.41

Landon Sims run for no gain to the NMSU 3

3rd & 3Passing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +2.62

Brayden Schager pass complete to Koali Nishigaya for 3 yds for a TD (Matthew Shipley KICK)

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.93

Monte Watkins run for 11 yds to the NMSU 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.71

Star Thomas run for 7 yds to the NMSU 43

2nd & 3Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.51

Star Thomas run for 6 yds to the NMSU 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.64

Star Thomas run for 2 yds to the HAW 49

2nd & 8Penalty-10 yds

New Mexico State Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the NMSU 41

2nd & 18Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -0.51

Diego Pavia pass complete to Star Thomas for a loss of 1 yard to the NMSU 40

3rd & 19Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.45

Diego Pavia run for 10 yds to the 50 yard line

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Zach Haynes punt for 22 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.20

Brayden Schager pass complete to Jordan Johnson for 13 yds to the HAW 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.14

Brayden Schager pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +2.75

Brayden Schager pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 22 yds to the NMSU 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.57

Brayden Schager pass complete to Landon Sims for 1 yd to the NMSU 36

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.93

Brayden Schager pass incomplete

3rd & 9Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.87

Brayden Schager pass complete to Steven McBride for 12 yds to the NMSU 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty0 yds

New Mexico State Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (J.J. Dervil) to the NMSU 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.37

Nasjzae Bryant-Lelei run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMSU 10

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Nasjzae Bryant-Lelei run for 5 yds to the NMSU 5

3rd & 5Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.45

run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMSU 7

4th & 7Field Goal Good+24 yds

Matthew Shipley 24 yd FG GOOD

0th & 0End of Regulation0 yds

End of 4th Quarter

Situational Analysis

New Mexico State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
52%
23 plays
2nd
67%
3 plays
0%
3 plays
50%
6 plays
50%
2 plays
3rd
100%
2 plays
33%
3 plays
67%
3 plays
50%
2 plays
4th

Hawai'i

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
33%
3 plays
48%
25 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
60%
5 plays
20%
5 plays
30%
10 plays
100%
2 plays
3rd
67%
3 plays
25%
4 plays
25%
4 plays
100%
3 plays
4th
100%
1 play