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← Back to GamesDec 10, 2022Week 15

House Prediction

Model Margin

North Dakota State by 11.8

Home Win Probability

North Dakota State 77%

Market (Bovada)

North Dakota State -19

Edge: Samford +19 (7.2 pts)

fitted_v1 · Dec 10, 2022

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Samford
00033
North Dakota StateNorth Dakota State
01014024

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014287-017-024-024-3
North Dakota StateSamford

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20SAMNDSSAMNDSSAMNDSSAMNDSSAMNDSSAMNDSNDSSAMNDSSAMNDSPUNT35ydPUNT512ydPUNT30ydPUNT3-7ydPUNT3-10ydTO529ydMISS1147ydDOWNS931ydDOWNS834ydTD1269ydPUNT3-1ydEND323ydTD782ydTO612ydTD1263ydFG1266ydUncategorized339yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Samford and North Dakota State
StatisticSamfordNorth Dakota State
Passing14-2714-17
Pass Yards132190
Rush Yards36147
Total Yards168337
Turnovers11
3rd Down5-139-12
Penalties3-292-10
Possession16:4533:11

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Samford
passing
Michael Hiers
6/10, 80 YDS, 1 INT
rushing
Jay Stanton
9 CAR, 28 YDS
receiving
Chandler Smith
4 REC, 71 YDS
North Dakota State
passing
Cam Miller
14/17, 190 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Kobe Johnson
13 CAR, 46 YDS
receiving
Joe Stoffel
3 REC, 60 YDS, 1 TD

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Quincy Crittendon pass complete to D.J. Rias for 3 yds to the Samf 28

2nd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.36

Jay Stanton run for 2 yds to the Samf 30

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

Quincy Crittendon pass incomplete to D.J. Rias

4th & 5Punt+18 yds

Bradley Porcellato punt for 50 yds , Jayden Price returns for 18 yds to the NDkSt 38

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.89

Kobe Johnson run for 1 yd to the NDkSt 39

2nd & 9Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.92

Cole Payton run for 10 yds to the NDkSt 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.13

Cam Miller pass incomplete to Zach Mathis

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.82

TaMerik Williams run for 1 yd to the 50 yard line

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.75

Cam Miller pass incomplete to Zach Mathis

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Kaedin Steindorf punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Samf 17

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

Quincy Crittendon pass incomplete to Jaylan Thomas

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.22

Quincy Crittendon pass incomplete to Chandler Smith

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.10

Quincy Crittendon pass incomplete to Judd Cockett

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Bradley Porcellato punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jayden Price at the NDkSt 38

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.67

Kobe Johnson run for 2 yds to the NDkSt 40

2nd & 8Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.72

Kobe Johnson run for 1 yd to the NDkSt 41

3rd & 7Fumble Recovery (Own)-10 ydsPPA -0.98

Cam Miller sacked by Johnny Johnson for a loss of 10 yards to the NDkSt 31 Cam Miller fumbled, forced by Johnny Johnson, recovered by NDkSt Cam Miller , return for 0 yards

4th & 17Punt0 yds

Kaedin Steindorf punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Judd Cockett at the Samf 33

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

Crittendon, Quincy pass complete to Stanton, Jay for 7 yards to the SAMFORD40, PENALTY SAMFORD holding 10 yards to the SAMFORD23, NO PLAY.

1st & 20Rush0 ydsPPA -0.24

Quincy Crittendon run for no gain to the Samf 23

2nd & 20Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.11

Quincy Crittendon pass incomplete to Kendall Watson

3rd & 20Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.05

Quincy Crittendon pass incomplete to Kendall Watson

4th & 20Punt0 yds

Bradley Porcellato punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Jayden Price at the NDkSt 34

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.06

Cam Miller pass complete to Joe Stoffel for 11 yds to the NDkSt 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.93

TaMerik Williams run for 1 yd to the NDkSt 46

2nd & 9Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Cam Miller pass complete to Zach Mathis for 7 yds to the Samf 47

3rd & 2Penalty-5 yds

NO DAKOTA ST Penalty, False Start (Hunter Brozio) to the NDkSt 48

3rd & 7Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +2.67

Cam Miller pass complete to RaJa Nelson for 13 yds to the Samf 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+2 ydsPPA -3.86

Kobe Johnson run for 2 yds to the Samf 37 Kobe Johnson fumbled, forced by Isaiah Richardson, recovered by Samf Isaiah Richardson

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.04

Quincy Crittendon pass complete to Kendall Watson for 11 yds to the Samf 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.14

Quincy Crittendon pass incomplete to Kendall Watson

2nd & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.86

Quincy Crittendon pass complete to Judd Cockett for 10 yds to the NDkSt 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +0.53

Quincy Crittendon pass complete to Kendall Watson for 14 yds to the NDkSt 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.51

Quincy Crittendon run for no gain to the NDkSt 28

2nd & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.22

Quincy Crittendon pass complete to Jaylan Thomas for 3 yds to the NDkSt 25

3rd & 7Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.92

Quincy Crittendon pass complete to D.J. Rias for 8 yds to the NDkSt 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.34

Jay Stanton run for no gain to the NDkSt 17

2nd & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.39

Quincy Crittendon run for 9 yds to the NDkSt 8

3rd & 1Sack-8 ydsPPA -1.27

Quincy Crittendon sacked by Javier Derritt for a loss of 8 yards to the NDkSt 16

4th & 9Blocked Field Goal+5 yds

Zach Williams 34 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Spencer Waege Jayden Price return for 5 yds to the NDkSt 34

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

TaMerik Williams run for 4 yds to the NDkSt 38

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.38

TaMerik Williams run for 3 yds to the NDkSt 41

3rd & 3Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.50

Cam Miller run for 3 yds to the NDkSt 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.67

Cam Miller pass complete to Hunter Brozio for 7 yds to the Samf 49

2nd & 3Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.35

Cam Miller pass complete to RaJa Nelson for 6 yds to the Samf 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.94

Cam Miller pass incomplete to Eli Green

2nd & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.72

RaJa Nelson run for 8 yds to the Samf 35

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.80

TaMerik Williams run for 1 yd to the Samf 34

4th & 1Rush-1 ydsPPA -2.63

Cam Miller run for a loss of 1 yard to the Samf 35

1st & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -1.01

Quincy Crittendon pass complete to Kendall Watson for no gain to the Samf 35

2nd & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.26

Quincy Crittendon pass complete to Jay Stanton for 3 yds to the Samf 38

3rd & 7Rush+8 ydsPPA +2.33

Jay Stanton run for 8 yds to the Samf 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +1.04

Quincy Crittendon run for 15 yds to the NDkSt 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Jay Stanton run for 5 yds to the NDkSt 34

2nd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Jay Stanton run for 2 yds to the NDkSt 32

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.95

Quincy Crittendon pass incomplete to Kendall Watson

4th & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -2.54

Kendall Watson run for 1 yd to the NDkSt 31

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.37

Kobe Johnson run for 3 yds to the NDkSt 34

2nd & 7Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +2.21

Cam Miller pass complete to Hunter Brozio for 17 yds to the Samf 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

TaMerik Williams run for 5 yds to the Samf 44

2nd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.13

TaMerik Williams run for 4 yds to the Samf 40

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.70

Kobe Johnson run for 2 yds to the Samf 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.39

Braylon Henderson run for 13 yds to the Samf 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-9 ydsPPA -1.83

Cam Miller sacked by Noah Martin for a loss of 9 yards to the Samf 34

2nd & 19Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.92

Cam Miller pass complete to Braylon Henderson for 10 yds to the Samf 24

3rd & 9Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +1.73

Cam Miller pass complete to Zach Mathis for 19 yds to the Samf 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.45

Cam Miller run for 1 yd to the Samf 4

2nd & 4Penalty-5 yds

NO DAKOTA ST Penalty, False Start (Joe Stoffel) to the Samf 9

2nd & 9Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.20

Cam Miller run for 7 yds to the Samf 2

3rd & 2Passing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +2.54

Cam Miller pass complete to Joe Stoffel for 2 yds for a TD (Griffin Crosa KICK)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Jaylan Thomas run for 1 yd to the Samf 26

2nd & 9Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.51

Quincy Crittendon run for a loss of 2 yards to the Samf 24

3rd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.13

Quincy Crittendon pass incomplete to Kendall Watson

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Bradley Porcellato punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard line

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.63

Cam Miller run for 2 yds to the Samf 48

2nd & 8Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.59

Cam Miller run for 7 yds to the Samf 41

3rd & 1Penalty+14 yds

Miller, Cam pass incomplete to Green, Eli, PENALTY SAMFORD personal foul (Hardimon, Tyriq) 14 yards to the SAMFORD26, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NODAKOTAST.

1st & 10Field Goal Good+44 yds

Griffin Crosa 44 yd FG GOOD

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.05

Kobe Johnson run for 9 yds to the NDkSt 27

2nd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -1.05

TK Marshall run for no gain to the NDkSt 27

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.80

TK Marshall run for 3 yds to the NDkSt 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +1.42

Kobe Johnson run for 15 yds to the NDkSt 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.93

Kobe Johnson run for 1 yd to the NDkSt 46

2nd & 9Pass Reception+47 ydsPPA +3.01

Cam Miller pass complete to Joe Stoffel for 47 yds to the Samf 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Rushing Touchdown+7 ydsPPA +2.20

TK Marshall run for 7 yds for a TD (Griffin Crosa KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Michael Hiers pass incomplete to Judd Cockett

2nd & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.25

Michael Hiers pass complete to Chandler Smith for 6 yds to the Samf 41

3rd & 4Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +2.17

Michael Hiers pass complete to Chandler Smith for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.11

Michael Hiers pass incomplete to J.R. Tran-Reno

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.62

Jay Stanton run for 2 yds to the NDkSt 48

3rd & 8Penalty-5 yds

SAMFORD Penalty, False Start (Gavin Orr) to the Samf 47

3rd & 13Pass Interception Return+1 ydsPPA -0.53

Michael Hiers pass intercepted Dawson Weber return for 1 yd to the NDkSt 37

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.53

Kobe Johnson run for a loss of 3 yards to the NDkSt 34

2nd & 13Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.29

Cam Miller run for 2 yds to the NDkSt 36

3rd & 11Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +3.03

Cam Miller pass complete to RaJa Nelson for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.75

TK Marshall run for 12 yds to the Samf 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

TK Marshall run for 5 yds to the Samf 33

2nd & 5Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.27

Cam Miller pass complete to Zach Mathis for 6 yds to the Samf 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.26

Kobe Johnson run for 2 yds to the Samf 25

2nd & 8Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.18

Cam Miller pass complete to RaJa Nelson for 6 yds to the Samf 19

3rd & 2Rush+17 ydsPPA +1.61

Cam Miller run for 17 yds to the Samf 2 for a 1ST down

1st & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -0.85

Kobe Johnson run for no gain to the Samf 2

2nd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.39

Cam Miller run for 1 yd to the Samf 1

3rd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +2.45

Cam Miller run for 1 yd for a TD (Griffin Crosa KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.28

Jay Stanton run for 3 yds to the Samf 27

2nd & 7Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.26

Michael Hiers pass complete to Kendall Watson for 6 yds to the Samf 33

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.92

Jay Stanton run for 2 yds to the Samf 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-4 ydsPPA -1.55

Michael Hiers sacked by Kole Menz for a loss of 4 yards to the Samf 31

2nd & 14Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.34

Michael Hiers pass incomplete to Jay Stanton

3rd & 14Pass Reception+34 ydsPPA +4.16

Michael Hiers pass complete to Chandler Smith for 34 yds to the NDkSt 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.22

Michael Hiers pass complete to Judd Cockett for 3 yds to the NDkSt 32

2nd & 7Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +0.67

Michael Hiers pass complete to Chandler Smith for 22 yds to the NDkSt 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.01

Jay Stanton run for 4 yds to the NDkSt 6

2nd & 6Sack-2 ydsPPA -0.42

Michael Hiers sacked by Jaxon Duttenhefer for a loss of 2 yards to the NDkSt 8

3rd & 8Sack-2 ydsPPA -0.57

Michael Hiers sacked by Dylan Hendricks for a loss of 2 yards to the NDkSt 10

4th & 10Field Goal Good+28 yds

Zach Williams 28 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.93

Kobe Johnson run for 11 yds to the NDkSt 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+25 ydsPPA +2.01

Cam Miller pass complete to Braylon Henderson for 25 yds to the Samf 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.26

TK Marshall run for 3 yds to the Samf 36

Situational Analysis

Samford

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
24%
17 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
0%
2 plays
45%
11 plays
0%
2 plays
3rd
33%
3 plays
50%
2 plays
50%
4 plays
25%
4 plays
4th
0%
1 play

North Dakota State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
0%
1 play
44%
25 plays
2nd
33%
3 plays
33%
3 plays
80%
10 plays
50%
2 plays
3rd
86%
7 plays
50%
4 plays
100%
1 play
4th
0%
1 play