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← Back to GamesDec 26, 2022Week 1

House Prediction

Model Margin

Bowling Green by 0.8

Home Win Probability

Bowling Green 56%

Market (consensus)

Bowling Green -3.5

Edge: New Mexico State +3.5 (2.7 pts)

fitted_v1 · Dec 26, 2022

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
New Mexico StateNew Mexico State
7710024
Bowling GreenBowling Green
0071219

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014280-70-140-177-1710-2419-24
Bowling GreenNew Mexico State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20BGNMSBGNMSBGNMSBGNMSBGNMSBGNMSBGNMSBGNMSBGNMSBGNMSTO424ydTD870ydMISS1043ydPUNT514ydPUNT837ydTD1080ydMISS745ydTO837ydEND417ydFG757ydTD00ydPUNT935ydPUNT3-1ydTD253ydFG934ydPUNT3-15ydTO338ydSAF610ydTD248ydEND1343yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing New Mexico State and Bowling Green
StatisticNew Mexico StateBowling Green
Passing17-2916-26
Pass Yards167221
Rush Yards24073
Total Yards407294
Turnovers12
3rd Down11-173-9
Penalties8-554-41
Possession38:1021:50

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

New Mexico State
passing
Diego Pavia
17/29, 167 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Ahmonte Watkins
9 CAR, 76 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Kordell David
5 REC, 54 YDS
defense
Bowling Green
passing
Camden Orth
14/22, 191 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Jaison Patterson
6 CAR, 23 YDS
receiving
Taron Keith
3 REC, 69 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +1.52

Matt McDonald pass complete to Odieu Hiliare for 17 yds to the BwGrn 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.69

Ta'ron Keith run for 7 yds to the BwGrn 49

2nd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.29

Matt McDonald pass incomplete

3rd & 3Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -1.84

Matt McDonald pass intercepted Trevor Brohard return for no gain to the NMxSt 30

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.86

Diego Pavia pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.30

Jamoni Jones run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 32

3rd & 8Penalty-5 yds

NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, False Start (Shiyazh Pete) to the NMxSt 27

3rd & 13Pass Reception+42 ydsPPA +4.33

Diego Pavia pass complete to Justice Powers for 42 yds to the BwGrn 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.06

Jamoni Jones run for a loss of 3 yards to the BwGrn 34

2nd & 13Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.13

Diego Pavia pass complete to Bryce Childress for 4 yds to the BwGrn 30

3rd & 9Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.41

Diego Pavia run for 10 yds to the BwGrn 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Star Thomas run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 15

2nd & 5Passing Touchdown+15 ydsPPA +2.54

Diego Pavia pass complete to Star Thomas for 15 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.15

Matt McDonald pass complete to Christian Sims for 13 yds to the BwGrn 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Jaison Patterson run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 42

2nd & 7Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.28

Jamal Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the BwGrn 40

3rd & 9Rush+11 ydsPPA +2.80

Matt McDonald run for 11 yds to the NMxSt 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.86

Ta'ron Keith run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 48

2nd & 9Penalty+5 yds

NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the NMxSt 43

2nd & 4Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.52

Camden Orth pass complete to Austin Osborne for 10 yds to the NMxSt 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-2 ydsPPA -0.97

Camden Orth sacked by Lama Lavea for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 35

2nd & 12Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Jaison Patterson run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 30

3rd & 7Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -1.17

Camden Orth pass complete to Odieu Hiliare for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 31

4th & 8Field Goal Missed+48 yds

Mason Lawler 48 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.03

Ahmonte Watkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 30

2nd & 11Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +2.54

Diego Pavia pass complete to Kordell David for 17 yds to the NMxSt 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Jamoni Jones run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 7Pass Reception-5 ydsPPA -2.00

Diego Pavia pass complete to Jonathan Brady for a loss of 5 yards to the NMxSt 45

3rd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.47

Diego Pavia pass incomplete

4th & 12Punt0 yds

George Eberle punt for 40 yds, downed at the BwGrn 15

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.25

Jaison Patterson run for 6 yds to the BwGrn 21

2nd & 4Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.37

Jaison Patterson run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Jaison Patterson run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 30

2nd & 6Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.57

Camden Orth pass complete to Harold Fannin Jr. for 1 yd to the BwGrn 31

3rd & 5Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +2.60

Camden Orth pass complete to Christian Sims for 16 yds to the BwGrn 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.15

Camden Orth pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.58

Jamal Johnson run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 46

3rd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.67

Jamal Johnson run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 44

4th & 1Penalty-4 yds

BOWLING GREEN Penalty, False Start (Kameren Stewart) to the NMxSt 48

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Sami Sir punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Lawrence Dixon at the NMxSt 20

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.69

Ahmonte Watkins run for 10 yds to the NMxSt 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.86

Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Justice Powers

2nd & 10Pass Reception+29 ydsPPA +3.32

Diego Pavia pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 29 yds to the BwGrn 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.46

Diego Pavia pass complete to Kordell David for 7 yds to the BwGrn 34

2nd & 3Rush+22 ydsPPA +0.25

Diego Pavia run for 10 yds to the BwGrn 24 for a 1ST down BOWLING GREEN Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Chris Bacon) to the BwGrn 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Kordell David

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.23

Ahmonte Watkins run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 11

3rd & 9Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.85

Diego Pavia run for 9 yds to the BwGrn 2 for a 1ST down

1st & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -0.85

Ahmonte Watkins run for no gain to the BwGrn 2

2nd & 2Passing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +2.07

Diego Pavia pass complete to Eric Marsh for 2 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK)

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.02

Jamal Johnson run for 8 yds to the BwGrn 40

2nd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.03

Ta'ron Keith run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+28 ydsPPA +1.68

Camden Orth pass complete to Ta'ron Keith for 28 yds to the NMxSt 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.53

Camden Orth pass incomplete to Harold Fannin Jr.

2nd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.18

Camden Orth run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 23

3rd & 4Rush0 ydsPPA -0.69

Jaison Patterson run for no gain to the NMxSt 23

4th & 4Field Goal Missed+41 yds

Mason Lawler 41 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.06

Star Thomas run for 13 yds to the NMxSt 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Diego Pavia run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 39

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.90

Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Justice Powers

3rd & 7Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +3.05

Diego Pavia pass complete to Kordell David for 17 yds to the BwGrn 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.32

Diego Pavia pass complete to Star Thomas for 3 yds to the BwGrn 41

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Diego Pavia pass incomplete

3rd & 7Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.30

Diego Pavia pass complete to Thomaz Whitford for 6 yds to the BwGrn 35

4th & 1Penalty-5 yds

NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, False Start (Thomaz Whitford) to the BwGrn 40

4th & 6Pass Interception Return+17 ydsPPA -1.39

Diego Pavia pass intercepted Chris Bacon return for 17 yds to the BwGrn 32

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.37

Camden Orth pass complete to Austin Osborne for 9 yds to the BwGrn 41

2nd & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.42

Camden Orth pass incomplete

3rd & 1Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.64

Camden Orth run for 8 yds to the BwGrn 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.13

Camden Orth pass incomplete

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.91

Diego Pavia pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 8 yds to the NMxSt 33

2nd & 2Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.21

Jamoni Jones run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+37 ydsPPA +2.25

Jonathan Brady run for 37 yds to the BwGrn 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.45

Jamoni Jones run for no gain to the BwGrn 25

2nd & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.27

Diego Pavia run for 7 yds to the BwGrn 18

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.54

Diego Pavia pass incomplete

4th & 3Field Goal Good+35 yds

Ethan Albertson 35 yd FG GOOD

No play data available
1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Star Thomas run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 24

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.58

Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Kordell David

3rd & 5Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.51

Ahmonte Watkins run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.03

Star Thomas run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 41

2nd & 2Penalty-5 yds

NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (AJ Vaipulu) to the NMxSt 36

2nd & 7Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.92

Diego Pavia run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 35

3rd & 8Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +2.55

Diego Pavia pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 11 yds to the NMxSt 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.65

Diego Pavia pass complete to Kordell David for 7 yds to the BwGrn 47

2nd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.97

Star Thomas run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 46

3rd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.15

Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Justice Powers

4th & 2Punt0 yds

George Eberle punt for 41 yds, downed at the BwGrn 5

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.18

Camden Orth pass complete to Christian Sims for 6 yds to the BwGrn 11

2nd & 4Rush-7 ydsPPA -0.60

Ta'ron Keith run for a loss of 7 yards to the BwGrn 4

3rd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.04

Camden Orth pass incomplete to Odieu Hiliare

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Sami Sir punt for 49 yds , Lawrence Dixon returns for no gain to the NMxSt 47

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.90

Ahmonte Watkins run for 8 yds to the BwGrn 45

2nd & 2Rushing Touchdown+45 ydsPPA +3.19

Ahmonte Watkins run for 45 yds for a TD

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Camden Orth pass incomplete to Odieu Hiliare

2nd & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +2.33

Camden Orth pass complete to Odieu Hiliare for 14 yds to the BwGrn 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +0.99

Camden Orth pass complete to Ta'ron Keith for 17 yds to the NMxSt 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

BOWLING GREEN Penalty, Offensive Holding (Bronson Warner) to the NMxSt 44

1st & 20Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Camden Orth pass incomplete

2nd & 20Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +2.94

Camden Orth pass complete to Christian Sims for 21 yds to the NMxSt 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.42

Camden Orth pass incomplete to Odieu Hiliare

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.17

Ta'ron Keith run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 20

3rd & 7Penalty-15 yds

BOWLING GREEN Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Bronson Warner) to the NMxSt 35

3rd & 22Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Camden Orth run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 31

4th & 18Field Goal Good+49 yds

Mason Lawler 49 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.15

Jamoni Jones run for no gain to the NMxSt 42

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.34

Jamoni Jones run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 45

3rd & 7Penalty-10 yds

NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (AJ Vaipulu) to the NMxSt 35

3rd & 17Penalty-5 yds

NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Delay of Game (Diego Pavia) to the NMxSt 30

3rd & 22Pass Reception-3 ydsPPA -0.09

Diego Pavia pass complete to Bryce Childress for a loss of 3 yards to the NMxSt 27

4th & 25Punt0 yds

George Eberle punt for 14 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NMxSt 41

1st & 10Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +0.66

Camden Orth pass complete to Ta'ron Keith for 24 yds to the NMxSt 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.26

Ta'ron Keith run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 16

2nd & 9Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+13 ydsPPA -4.16

Camden Orth pass complete to Odieu Hiliare for 13 yds Odieu Hiliare fumbled, recovered by NMxSt Syrus Dumas

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.17

Star Thomas run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 5

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.16

Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Chris Bellamy

3rd & 8Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.63

Diego Pavia run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.18

Star Thomas run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 17

2nd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.14

Ahmonte Watkins run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 20

3rd & 4Rush-7 ydsPPA -0.39

Diego Pavia run for a loss of 7 yards to the NMxSt 13

4th & 11Blocked Punt0 yds

George Eberle punt blocked by Davion Daniels for a SAFETY.

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +0.75

Camden Orth pass complete to Tyrone Broden for 14 yds to the NMxSt 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Linwood Crump) to the NMxSt 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+19 ydsPPA +2.60

Camden Orth pass complete to Tyrone Broden for 19 yds for a TD (Mason Lawler KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Diego Pavia pass complete to Jamoni Jones for 1 yd to the NMxSt 26

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.41

Diego Pavia pass incomplete

3rd & 9Fumble Recovery (Own)+9 ydsPPA +1.83

Diego Pavia run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 35 Diego Pavia fumbled, recovered by NMxSt Diego Pavia for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.32

Jamoni Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 33

2nd & 12Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.36

Star Thomas run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 40

3rd & 5Penalty-5 yds

NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, False Start (Chris Bellamy) to the NMxSt 35

3rd & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +2.58

Diego Pavia run for 10 yds to the NMxSt 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Star Thomas run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 49

2nd & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.93

Diego Pavia run for 1 yd to the 50 yard line

3rd & 5Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +1.95

Diego Pavia pass complete to Kordell David for 6 yds to the BwGrn 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.75

Ahmonte Watkins run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 43

2nd & 9Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.52

Jamoni Jones run for 7 yds to the BwGrn 36

3rd & 2Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.80

Diego Pavia run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.73

TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the BwGrn 32

Situational Analysis

New Mexico State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
37%
27 plays
2nd
80%
5 plays
33%
3 plays
23%
13 plays
67%
3 plays
3rd
33%
3 plays
67%
3 plays
100%
8 plays
33%
3 plays
4th
0%
1 play

Bowling Green

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
55%
22 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
33%
3 plays
50%
4 plays
50%
6 plays
100%
2 plays
3rd
33%
3 plays
50%
2 plays
50%
2 plays
0%
2 plays
4th