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← Back to GamesNov 19, 2022Week 12
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Louisville by 7.2

Home Win Probability

Louisville 66%

Market (consensus)

Louisville -4

Edge: Louisville -4 (3.2 pts)

fitted_v1 · Nov 19, 2022

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
NC StateNC State
037010
LouisvilleLouisville
01301225

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014283-314-314-1017-1022-1025-10
LouisvilleNC State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20LOUNSLOUNSLOUNSLOUNSNSLOUNSLOUNSLOUNSLOUNSLOUNSLOUNSLOUNSPUNT412ydPUNT3-11ydPUNT627ydPUNT1133ydPUNT730ydPUNT39ydFG541ydFG1362ydPUNT613ydFG1161ydPUNT36ydPUNT622ydTD587ydPUNT516ydPUNT621ydFG866ydDOWNS520ydTD445ydDOWNS715ydFG529ydDOWNS515ydDOWNS716ydTO746yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing NC State and Louisville
StatisticNC StateLouisville
Passing18-4212-25
Pass Yards214153
Rush Yards77192
Total Yards291345
Turnovers10
3rd Down7-176-16
Penalties6-457-60
Possession30:3429:26

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

NC State
passing
Ben Finley
16/35, 201 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Jordan Houston
8 CAR, 41 YDS
receiving
Darryl Jones
4 REC, 60 YDS
defense
Louisville
passing
Brock Domann
12/25, 153 YDS
rushing
Jawhar Jordan
16 CAR, 105 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Tyler Hudson
6 REC, 85 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.93

Jawhar Jordan run for 11 yds to the Lvile 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception-10 ydsPPA -2.02

Brock Domann pass complete to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce for a loss of 10 yards to the Lvile 26

2nd & 20Rush0 ydsPPA -0.14

Jawhar Jordan run for no gain to the Lvile 26

3rd & 20Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.21

Jawhar Jordan run for 11 yds to the Lvile 37

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Mark Vassett punt for 25 yds, downed at the NCSt 38

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.09

Jack Chambers pass incomplete

2nd & 10Sack-6 ydsPPA -1.12

Jack Chambers sacked by Monty Montgomery for a loss of 6 yards to the NCSt 32

3rd & 16Sack-5 ydsPPA -0.20

Jack Chambers sacked by Yasir Abdullah and Ashton Gillotte for a loss of 5 yards to the NCSt 27

4th & 21Punt+4 yds

Caden Noonkester punt for 53 yds , Braden Smith returns for 4 yds to the Lvile 10

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.42

Brock Domann pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.20

Maurice Turner run for 7 yds to the Lvile 21

3rd & 3Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.37

Brock Domann pass complete to Marshon Ford for 11 yds to the Lvile 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.38

Maurice Turner run for 3 yds to the Lvile 35

2nd & 7Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Maurice Turner run for 6 yds to the Lvile 41

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.92

Jawhar Jordan run for no gain to the Lvile 41

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Mark Vassett punt for 43 yds, downed at the NCSt 16

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.46

Jack Chambers run for 7 yds to the NCSt 23

2nd & 3Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.11

Jack Chambers run for 3 yds to the NCSt 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.47

Michael Allen run for 2 yds to the NCSt 28

2nd & 8Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.24

Jack Chambers pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 6 yds to the NCSt 34

3rd & 2Penalty+5 yds

LOUISVILLE Penalty, Illegal Formation (5 Yards) to the NCSt 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Michael Allen run for 5 yds to the NCSt 44

2nd & 5Rush+20 ydsPPA +1.73

Michael Allen run for 30 yds to the LOUISVILLE 26 NC STATE Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the NCSt 44

2nd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Jordan Houston run for 4 yds to the NCSt 48

3rd & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +0.99

Jack Chambers run for 1 yd to the NCSt 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.13

Delbert Mimms III run for no gain to the NCSt 49

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Jack Chambers pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.67

Jack Chambers pass incomplete

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Caden Noonkester punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Braden Smith at the Lvile 12

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.32

Tiyon Evans run for 1 yd to the Lvile 13

2nd & 9Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Brock Domann run for 5 yds to the Lvile 18

3rd & 4Penalty-5 yds

LOUISVILLE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Lvile 13

3rd & 9Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.25

Brock Domann pass complete to Jawhar Jordan for 13 yds to the Lvile 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+17 ydsPPA +1.54

Jawhar Jordan run for 17 yds to the Lvile 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.93

Tiyon Evans run for 1 yd to the Lvile 44

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.93

Brock Domann pass incomplete

3rd & 9Sack-2 ydsPPA -0.71

Brock Domann sacked by Drake Thomas and Tanner Ingle for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 42

4th & 11Punt-2 yds

Mark Vassett punt for 52 yds , Thayer Thomas returns for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSt 4

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.11

Jordan Houston run for 3 yds to the NCSt 7

2nd & 7Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.14

Jordan Houston run for 6 yds to the NCSt 13

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.29

Jordan Houston run for no gain to the NCSt 13

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Caden Noonkester punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Braden Smith at the 50 yard line

1st & 10Pass Reception+38 ydsPPA +1.31

Brock Domann pass complete to Marshon Ford for 38 yds to the NCSt 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.30

Jawhar Jordan run for no gain to the NCSt 12

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

Brock Domann pass incomplete

3rd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.15

Jawhar Jordan run for 3 yds to the NCSt 9

4th & 7Field Goal Good+26 yds

James Turner 26 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Ben Finley pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Ben Finley pass incomplete

3rd & 10Penalty+15 yds

(09:21) FINLEY, Ben pass to the left incomplete intended for TIMMONS, Terrell thrown to the NCS44, clock 09:17. PENALTY LOU Pass Interference on BROWNLEE, Jarvis enforced 15 yards to the NCS40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.70

Julian Gray run for 7 yds to the NCSt 47

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.76

Michael Allen run for 2 yds to the NCSt 49

3rd & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +0.97

Michael Allen run for 1 yd to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +0.94

Ben Finley pass complete to Darryl Jones for 17 yds to the Lvile 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.20

Michael Allen run for 3 yds to the Lvile 30

2nd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.23

Michael Allen run for 3 yds to the Lvile 27

3rd & 4Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +0.79

Ben Finley pass complete to Darryl Jones for 14 yds to the Lvile 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Ben Finley pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.33

Ben Finley pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.52

Ben Finley pass incomplete

4th & 10Field Goal Good+30 yds

Christopher Dunn 30 yd FG GOOD

0th & 0Kickoff Return Touchdown+98 yds

Jawhar Jordan 98 Yd Kickoff Return (James Turner Kick)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Ben Finley pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.31

Ben Finley pass complete to Porter Rooks for 7 yds to the NCSt 32

3rd & 3Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +1.61

Ben Finley pass complete to Porter Rooks for 7 yds to the NCSt 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.11

Ben Finley pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.31

Ben Finley pass complete to Jordan Houston for 3 yds to the NCSt 42

3rd & 7Sack-4 ydsPPA -0.86

Ben Finley sacked by Yasir Abdullah for a loss of 4 yards to the NCSt 38

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Caden Noonkester punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Braden Smith at the Lvile 34

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Maurice Turner run for 5 yds to the Lvile 39

2nd & 5Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.65

Brock Domann pass complete to Maurice Turner for 2 yds to the Lvile 41

3rd & 3Rush+11 ydsPPA +2.19

Brock Domann run for 11 yds to the NCSt 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Brock Domann pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.80

Brock Domann pass complete to Tyler Hudson for 8 yds to the NCSt 40

3rd & 2Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.14

Maurice Turner run for 10 yds to the NCSt 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +0.28

Brock Domann pass complete to Tyler Hudson for 17 yds to the NCSt 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Brock Domann pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.33

Brock Domann pass incomplete

3rd & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.26

Brock Domann run for 8 yds to the NCSt 5

4th & 2Field Goal Good+22 yds

James Turner 22 yd FG GOOD

0th & 0End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+32 yds

Brock Travelstead kickoff for 64 yds , Julian Gray return for 32 yds to the NCSt 33

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.10

Jack Chambers run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 32

2nd & 11Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.38

Jack Chambers pass complete to Michael Allen for 7 yds to the NCSt 39

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.66

Jack Chambers pass incomplete

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Caden Noonkester punt for 37 yds , Braden Smith returns for no gain to the Lvile 24

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.67

Brock Domann pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.46

Brock Domann pass complete to Tyler Hudson for 8 yds to the Lvile 32

3rd & 2Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.60

Brock Domann pass complete to Tyler Hudson for 8 yds to the Lvile 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.50

Jawhar Jordan run for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 38

2nd & 12Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.66

Brock Domann pass complete to Tyler Hudson for 8 yds to the Lvile 46

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.88

Brock Domann pass incomplete

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Mark Vassett punt for 41 yds, downed at the NCSt 13

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.62

Jordan Houston run for 12 yds to the NCSt 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.03

Ben Finley pass complete to Darryl Jones for 12 yds to the NCSt 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +1.51

Ben Finley pass complete to Darryl Jones for 17 yds to the Lvile 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.61

Jordan Houston run for 12 yds to the Lvile 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+34 ydsPPA +2.94

Ben Finley pass complete to Michael Allen for 34 yds for a TD, (Christopher Dunn KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)0 yds

Collin Smith kickoff for 45 yds , Jawhar Jordan return for no gain to the Lvile 20

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.70

Maurice Turner run for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 18

2nd & 12Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.56

Brock Domann pass complete to Marshon Ford for 14 yds to the Lvile 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.77

Brock Domann run for 1 yd to the Lvile 33

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.59

Brock Domann pass incomplete

3rd & 9Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.13

Brock Domann run for 3 yds to the Lvile 36

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Mark Vassett punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Thayer Thomas at the NCSt 24

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Michael Allen run for 5 yds to the NCSt 29

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.72

Ben Finley pass incomplete

3rd & 5Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +3.16

Ben Finley pass complete to Julian Gray for 24 yds to the Lvile 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

NC STATE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NCSt 48

1st & 15Fumble Recovery (Own)-6 ydsPPA -1.97

run for a loss of 6 yards to the NCSt 42 fumbled, recovered by NCSt Ben Finley

2nd & 21Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.17

Delbert Mimms III run for 3 yds to the NCSt 45

3rd & 18Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Ben Finley pass incomplete

4th & 18Punt0 yds

Caden Noonkester punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Braden Smith at the Lvile 21

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.59

Jawhar Jordan run for no gain to the Lvile 21

2nd & 10Penalty+15 yds

(01:40) DOMANN, Brock pass up the middle incomplete intended for HUGGINS-BRUCE, Ahmari thrown to the NCS36, clock 01:35. PENALTY NCS Pass Interference on FAGAN, Cyrus enforced 15 yards to the LOU36 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Rush+34 ydsPPA +2.33

Jawhar Jordan run for 34 yds to the NCSt 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Brock Domann pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.41

Jawhar Jordan run for 2 yds to the NCSt 28

3rd & 8Penalty+5 yds

NC STATE Penalty, Offsides (Davin Vann) to the NCSt 23

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Brock Domann pass incomplete

3rd & 3Penalty+10 yds

(14:53) DOMANN, Brock pass to the right incomplete intended for HUDSON, Tyler thrown to the NCS0, clock 14:54. PENALTY NCS Pass Interference on BATTLE, Shyheim enforced at the spot of the foul for 10 yards to the NCS13 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.33

Brock Domann pass incomplete

3rd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.52

Jawhar Jordan run for no gain to the NCSt 13

4th & 10Field Goal Good+30 yds

James Turner 30 yd FG GOOD

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+19 yds

Brock Travelstead kickoff for 59 yds , Julian Gray return for 19 yds to the NCSt 25

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.93

Ben Finley pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 11 yds to the NCSt 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Ben Finley pass incomplete

2nd & 10Penalty+5 yds

(13:10) FINLEY, Ben pass to the left incomplete thrown to the NCS45, clock 13:09. PENALTY LOU Offsides on MONTGOMERY, Monty enforced 5 yards from the NCS36 to the NCS41 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

2nd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Jordan Houston run for 3 yds to the NCSt 44

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.78

Jordan Houston run for 1 yd to the NCSt 45

4th & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.75

Michael Allen run for no gain to the NCSt 45

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.33

Jawhar Jordan run for 3 yds to the NCSt 42

2nd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Jawhar Jordan run for 4 yds to the NCSt 38

3rd & 3Pass Reception+36 ydsPPA +2.73

Brock Domann pass complete to Tyler Hudson for 36 yds to the NCSt 2 for a 1ST down

1st & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +1.21

Jawhar Jordan 2 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+17 yds

Brock Travelstead kickoff for 58 yds , Julian Gray return for 17 yds to the NCSt 24

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.67

Ben Finley pass incomplete

2nd & 10Sack-4 ydsPPA -0.46

Ben Finley sacked by Ashton Gillotte and Dezmond Tell for a loss of 4 yards to the NCSt 20

3rd & 14Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +2.43

Ben Finley pass complete to Keyon Lesane for 19 yds to the NCSt 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-4 ydsPPA -1.75

Ben Finley sacked by Yasir Abdullah for a loss of 4 yards to the NCSt 35

2nd & 14Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.28

Ben Finley pass complete to Jordan Houston for 2 yds to the NCSt 37

3rd & 12Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.19

Ben Finley pass complete to Jordan Houston for 2 yds to the NCSt 39

4th & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA +0.08

Ben Finley pass incomplete

1st & 10Rush+20 ydsPPA +0.54

Jawhar Jordan run for 20 yds to the NCSt 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.28

Maurice Turner run for 1 yd to the NCSt 18

2nd & 9Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Maurice Turner run for 5 yds to the NCSt 13

3rd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.13

Maurice Turner run for 3 yds to the NCSt 10

4th & 1Field Goal Good+28 yds

James Turner 28 yd FG GOOD

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+21 yds

Brock Travelstead kickoff for 60 yds , Julian Gray return for 21 yds to the NCSt 26

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.73

Ben Finley pass incomplete

2nd & 10Penalty+15 yds

(04:54) FINLEY, Ben pass to the right incomplete intended for JONES, Darryl thrown to the NCS33, clock 04:50. PENALTY LOU Pass Interference on RILEY, Quincy enforced 15 yards to the NCS41 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.14

Ben Finley pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.79

Ben Finley pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.44

Ben Finley pass incomplete

4th & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA +0.03

Ben Finley pass incomplete

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.65

Maurice Turner run for 8 yds to the NCSt 33

2nd & 2Rush+9 ydsPPA -0.10

Maurice Turner run for 9 yds to the NCSt 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.43

Maurice Turner run for no gain to the NCSt 24

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.58

Maurice Turner run for no gain to the NCSt 24

3rd & 10Penalty-5 yds

LOUISVILLE Penalty, Offensive Holding (Dez Melton) to the NCSt 25

4th & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -2.24

Brock Domann pass incomplete

3rd & 11Rush0 ydsPPA -0.90

Maurice Turner run for no gain to the NCSt 25

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Ben Finley pass complete to Porter Rooks for 6 yds to the NCSt 31

2nd & 4Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.47

Ben Finley run for 14 yds to the NCSt 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty0 yds

NC STATE Penalty, Illegal Touch-Pass on ROOKS, Porter enforced (Porter Rooks) to the NCSt 45

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.91

Jack Chambers pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +2.87

Ben Finley pass complete to Porter Rooks for 10 yds to the Lvile 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +0.69

Ben Finley pass complete to Julian Gray for 16 yds to the Lvile 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -4.21

Ben Finley pass intercepted, touchback.

Situational Analysis

NC State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
45%
29 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
50%
2 plays
40%
5 plays
25%
12 plays
33%
3 plays
3rd
60%
5 plays
67%
3 plays
20%
5 plays
25%
4 plays
4th
0%
1 play
100%
2 plays

Louisville

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
31%
26 plays
2nd
0%
1 play
0%
1 play
43%
14 plays
67%
3 plays
3rd
83%
6 plays
0%
2 plays
33%
6 plays
50%
2 plays
4th
0%
1 play