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← Back to GamesNov 18, 2021Week 12
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Buffalo by 0.8

Home Win Probability

Buffalo 52%

Market (consensus)

Buffalo +1.5

Edge: Buffalo +1.5 (2.3 pts)

fitted_v1 · Nov 18, 2021

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QOTFinal
Northern IllinoisNorthern Illinois
010143633
BuffaloBuffalo
37710027

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428423-03-310-1010-2424-2424-2727-27
BuffaloNorthern Illinois

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20BUFNIBUFNIBUFNIBUFNINIBUFNIBUFNIBUFNIBUFNIBUFNIBUFNIBUFNIFG1361ydMISS1248ydMISS1053ydFG1764ydTD769ydTD175ydPUNT56ydEND1061ydPUNT3-2ydPUNT35ydTD250ydPUNT36ydTD561ydPUNT620ydTO3-7ydTD228ydPUNT39ydTD980ydFG1466ydFG1132ydMISS755ydTO824ydTD125yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Northern Illinois and Buffalo
StatisticNorthern IllinoisBuffalo
Passing17-2716-23
Pass Yards197162
Rush Yards308222
Total Yards505384
Turnovers11
3rd Down7-168-18
Penalties2-152-23
Possession31:2228:38

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Northern Illinois
passing
Rocky Lombardi
17/27, 197 YDS
rushing
Trayvon Rudolph
3 CAR, 94 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Cole Tucker
10 REC, 89 YDS
defense
CJ Brown
1.5 TFL
Buffalo
passing
Matt Myers
16/23, 162 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Dylan McDuffie
29 CAR, 125 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Jamari Gassett
5 REC, 52 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.91

Matt Myers pass complete to Jamari Gassett for 8 yds to the Buff 33

2nd & 2Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.31

Dylan McDuffie run for 6 yds to the Buff 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.11

Matt Myers pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Dylan McDuffie run for 5 yds to the Buff 44

3rd & 5Pass Reception+27 ydsPPA +3.11

Matt Myers pass complete to Dylan McDuffie for 27 yds to the NoIll 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.53

Ron Cook Jr. run for no gain to the NoIll 29

2nd & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.31

Ron Cook Jr. run for 7 yds to the NoIll 22

3rd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.34

Matt Myers run for 2 yds to the NoIll 20

4th & 1Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.81

Dylan McDuffie run for 6 yds to the NoIll 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Matt Myers pass complete to Jamari Gassett for 3 yds to the NoIll 11

2nd & 7Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.55

Dylan McDuffie run for a loss of 3 yards to the NoIll 14

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.55

Matt Myers pass incomplete

4th & 10Field Goal Good+32 yds

Alex McNulty 32 yd FG GOOD

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+3 yds

Alex McNulty kickoff for 39 yds , Drew Cassens return for 3 yds to the NoIll 29

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.12

Jay Ducker run for 12 yds to the NoIll 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.14

Jay Ducker run for no gain to the NoIll 41

2nd & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.80

Jay Ducker run for 8 yds to the NoIll 49

3rd & 2Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.88

Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 1 yd to the 50 yard line

4th & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +2.26

Rocky Lombardi run for 3 yds to the Buff 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.96

Jay Ducker run for a loss of 4 yards to the NoIll 49

2nd & 14Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.22

Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Cole Tucker for 10 yds to the Buff 41

3rd & 4Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.56

Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Cole Tucker for 12 yds to the Buff 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.53

Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete

2nd & 10Penalty0 yds

NORTHERNIL Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declined

3rd & 11Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.42

Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Miles Joiner for 7 yds to the Buff 23

4th & 4Field Goal Missed+41 yds

John Richardson 41 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.57

Matt Myers run for 7 yds to the Buff 30

2nd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.93

Matt Myers pass incomplete

3rd & 3Rush+24 ydsPPA +3.02

Matt Myers run for 24 yds to the NoIll 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.31

Matt Myers pass complete to Quian Williams for 6 yds to the NoIll 40

2nd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.34

Matt Myers run for 3 yds to the NoIll 37

3rd & 1Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.75

Dylan McDuffie run for 7 yds to the NoIll 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.17

Dylan McDuffie run for 3 yds to the NoIll 27

2nd & 7Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.48

Ron Cook Jr. run for 1 yd to the NoIll 26

3rd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.44

Matt Myers run for 2 yds to the NoIll 24

4th & 4Field Goal Missed+42 yds

Alex McNulty 42 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.67

Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.46

Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Cole Tucker for 8 yds to the NoIll 32

3rd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.11

Clint Ratkovich run for 3 yds to the NoIll 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Jay Ducker run for 6 yds to the NoIll 41

2nd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.45

Jay Ducker run for 3 yds to the NoIll 44

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -1.02

Clint Ratkovich run for no gain to the NoIll 44

4th & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +2.22

Clint Ratkovich run for 3 yds to the NoIll 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.80

Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Messiah Travis for 11 yds to the Buff 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.35

Jay Ducker run for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 44

2nd & 12Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.85

Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Cole Tucker for 15 yds to the Buff 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.53

Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.31

Jay Ducker run for 7 yds to the Buff 22

3rd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.42

Rocky Lombardi run for 4 yds to the Buff 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.51

Jay Ducker run for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 20

2nd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete

3rd & 12Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.39

Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Cole Tucker for 8 yds to the Buff 12

4th & 4Field Goal Good+30 yds

John Richardson 30 yd FG GOOD

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+11 yds

John Richardson kickoff for 45 yds , Jake Molinich return for 11 yds to the Buff 31

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.05

Kevin Marks Jr. run for 11 yds to the Buff 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+38 ydsPPA +1.94

Matt Myers pass complete to Jamari Gassett for 38 yds to the NoIll 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.29

Kevin Marks Jr. run for 1 yd to the NoIll 19

2nd & 9Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.71

Matt Myers pass complete to Dominic Johnson for 12 yds to the NoIll 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.13

Kevin Marks Jr. run for 5 yds to the NoIll 2

2nd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.39

Kevin Marks Jr. run for 1 yd to the NoIll 1

3rd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +2.45

Dylan McDuffie run for 1 yd for a TD, (Alex McNulty KICK)

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+75 ydsPPA +6.08

Trayvon Rudolph run for 75 yds for a TD, (John Richardson KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.91

Matt Myers pass complete to Bernard Porter for 8 yds to the Buff 33

2nd & 2Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.08

Dylan McDuffie run for 2 yds to the Buff 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Matt Myers pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.60

Matt Myers run for no gain to the Buff 35

3rd & 10Sack0 ydsPPA -0.30

Matt Myers sacked by Jaden Dolphin for 0 yards to the Buff 31

4th & 14Punt0 yds

Jackson Baltar punt for 59 yds , returns for no gain to the NoIll 7

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.38

Jay Ducker run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoIll 5

2nd & 12Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.12

Jay Ducker run for a loss of 3 yards to the NoIll 2

3rd & 15Pass Reception+27 ydsPPA +1.60

Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 27 yds to the NoIll 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.69

Jay Ducker run for 1 yd to the NoIll 30

2nd & 9Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.22

Jay Ducker run for 3 yds to the NoIll 33

3rd & 6Rush+12 ydsPPA +2.41

Jay Ducker run for 12 yds to the NoIll 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +2.20

Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Cole Tucker for 14 yds to the Buff 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.40

Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Cole Tucker for 10 yds to the Buff 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -0.73

Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Cole Tucker for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 32

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

DUCKER, Jay rush to the right for a gain of 7 yards to the NIU43 (GROSS JR., Cory). PENALTY NIU Holding on POTTER, Nolan enforced 10 yards from the NIU36 to the NIU26 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+15 yds

Alex McNulty kickoff for 44 yds , Mason Blakemore return for 15 yds to the NoIll 36

1st & 20Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete

2nd & 20Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.18

Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Cole Tucker for 8 yds to the NoIll 34

3rd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.23

Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete

4th & 12Punt+19 yds

Matt Ference punt for 50 yds , Ron Cook Jr. returns for 19 yds to the Buff 25

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Matt Myers pass complete to Jamari Gassett for 5 yds to the Buff 13

2nd & 5Rush0 ydsPPA -0.36

Dylan McDuffie run for no gain to the Buff 13

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.16

Matt Myers pass incomplete

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Jackson Baltar punt for 37 yds, downed at the 50 yard line

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.39

Jay Ducker run for 3 yds to the Buff 47

2nd & 7Rushing Touchdown+47 ydsPPA +4.23

Antario Brown run for 47 yds for a TD, (John Richardson KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception-2 ydsPPA -0.89

Matt Myers pass complete to Jamari Gassett for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 23

2nd & 12Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.35

Matt Myers pass complete to Dominic Johnson for 8 yds to the Buff 31

3rd & 4Rush0 ydsPPA -0.44

Ron Cook Jr. run for no gain to the Buff 31

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Jackson Baltar punt for 30 yds, downed at the NoIll 39

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.71

Jay Ducker run for 7 yds to the NoIll 46

2nd & 3Rush+15 ydsPPA +1.01

Antario Brown run for 15 yds to the Buff 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+36 ydsPPA +1.68

Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 36 yds to the Buff 3 for a 1ST down

1st & 3Fumble Recovery (Own)-4 ydsPPA -1.14

Rocky Lombardi run for a loss of 4 yards to the Buff 7 fumbled, recovered by NoIll Rocky Lombardi

2nd & 7Rushing Touchdown+7 ydsPPA +2.61

Clint Ratkovich run for 7 yds for a TD, (John Richardson KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.22

Matt Myers pass complete to Quian Williams for 6 yds to the Buff 18

2nd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.21

Kevin Marks Jr. run for 3 yds to the Buff 21

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.57

Kevin Marks Jr. run for 3 yds to the Buff 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Matt Myers run for 4 yds to the Buff 28

2nd & 6Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Matt Myers pass complete to Ron Cook Jr. for 5 yds to the Buff 33

3rd & 1Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.76

Dylan McDuffie run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 32

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Jackson Baltar punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Cole Tucker at the NoIll 35

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.01

Jay Ducker run for no gain to the NoIll 35

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.60

Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete

3rd & 10Sack0 ydsPPA -0.30

Rocky Lombardi sacked for 0 yards to the NoIll 28

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.20

Dylan McDuffie run for 6 yds to the NoIll 22

2nd & 4Rushing Touchdown+22 ydsPPA +2.56

Ron Cook Jr. run for 22 yds for a TD, (Alex McNulty KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+17 yds

Alex McNulty kickoff for 47 yds , Mason Blakemore return for 17 yds to the NoIll 35

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.38

Antario Brown run for 9 yds to the NoIll 44

2nd & 1Penalty-5 yds

NORTHERNIL Penalty, False Start (J.J. Lippe) to the NoIll 39

2nd & 6Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Cole Tucker for 5 yds to the NoIll 44

3rd & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.02

Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Matt Ference punt for 56 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush-5 ydsPPA -0.83

Dylan McDuffie run for a loss of 5 yards to the Buff 15

2nd & 15Rush+19 ydsPPA +1.88

Dylan McDuffie run for 19 yds to the Buff 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Dylan McDuffie run for 4 yds to the Buff 38

2nd & 6Rush+29 ydsPPA +2.59

Dylan McDuffie run for 29 yds to the NoIll 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.22

Dylan McDuffie run for 6 yds to the NoIll 27

2nd & 4Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.05

Dylan McDuffie run for 6 yds to the NoIll 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.21

Dylan McDuffie run for 2 yds to the NoIll 19

2nd & 8Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.15

Matt Myers pass complete to Khamran Laborn for 6 yds to the NoIll 13

3rd & 2Passing Touchdown+13 ydsPPA +2.69

Matt Myers pass complete to Ron Cook Jr. for 13 yds for a TD, (Alex McNulty KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.42

Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 16 yds to the NoIll 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.34

Jay Ducker run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 40

2nd & 11Rush+13 ydsPPA +2.39

Rocky Lombardi run for 13 yds to the Buff 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.35

Jay Ducker run for 3 yds to the Buff 44

2nd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Jay Ducker run for 4 yds to the Buff 40

3rd & 3Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.14

Rocky Lombardi run for 5 yds to the Buff 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.53

run for 1 yd to the Buff 34

2nd & 9Rush0 ydsPPA -0.87

Rocky Lombardi run for no gain to the Buff 34

3rd & 9Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.69

Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Messiah Travis for 10 yds to the Buff 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +0.26

Trayvon Rudolph run for 15 yds to the Buff 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.18

Rocky Lombardi run for 2 yds to the Buff 7

2nd & 7Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.40

Rocky Lombardi run for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 9

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.39

Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete

4th & 9Field Goal Good+27 yds

John Richardson 27 yd FG GOOD

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+8 yds

John Richardson kickoff for 42 yds , Jake Molinich return for 8 yds to the Buff 31

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.57

Matt Myers run for 2 yds to the Buff 33

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.65

Matt Myers pass incomplete

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.32

Matt Myers pass incomplete

4th & 8Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +3.05

Matt Myers pass complete to Dominic Johnson for 14 yds to the Buff 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Dylan McDuffie run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.42

Matt Myers run for 3 yds to the NoIll 47

3rd & 4Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.88

Dylan McDuffie run for 10 yds to the NoIll 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.14

Dylan McDuffie run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoIll 39

2nd & 12Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.36

Dylan McDuffie run for 3 yds to the NoIll 36

3rd & 9Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.23

Dylan McDuffie run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 37

4th & 10Field Goal Good+55 yds

Alex McNulty 55 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Trayvon Rudolph run for 4 yds to the NoIll 29

2nd & 6Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.44

Clint Ratkovich run for 11 yds to the NoIll 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

BUFFALO Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Cory Gross Jr.) to the Buff 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Clint Ratkovich run for 5 yds to the Buff 23

2nd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.29

Clint Ratkovich run for 2 yds to the Buff 21

3rd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.47

Clint Ratkovich run for 1 yd to the Buff 20

4th & 2Field Goal Missed+37 yds

John Richardson 37 yd FG MISSED

0th & 2End of Regulation0 yds

End of 4th Quarter

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.24

Dylan McDuffie run for 2 yds to the NoIll 23

2nd & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.16

Dylan McDuffie run for 3 yds to the NoIll 20

3rd & 5Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.55

Matt Myers pass complete to Quian Williams for 5 yds to the NoIll 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.30

Dylan McDuffie run for 7 yds to the NoIll 8

2nd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.57

Dylan McDuffie run for 4 yds to the NoIll 4 for a 1ST down

1st & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.52

Dylan McDuffie run for 1 yd to the NoIll 3

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.24

Dylan McDuffie run for 2 yds to the NoIll 1

3rd & 1Fumble Recovery (Opponent)0 ydsPPA -4.55

Matt Myers run for no gain to the NoIll 1 fumbled, recovered by NoIll Demond Taylor Jr.

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+25 ydsPPA +2.70

Clint Ratkovich run for 25 yds for a TD

Situational Analysis

Northern Illinois

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
40%
30 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
100%
1 play
50%
4 plays
55%
11 plays
67%
6 plays
3rd
43%
7 plays
100%
2 plays
33%
3 plays
75%
4 plays
4th
100%
2 plays

Buffalo

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
44%
27 plays
2nd
33%
6 plays
57%
7 plays
40%
10 plays
67%
3 plays
3rd
63%
8 plays
50%
6 plays
0%
4 plays
4th
100%
1 play
100%
1 play