Skip to main content
← Back to GamesOct 2, 2021Week 5
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Western Michigan by 0.5

Home Win Probability

Buffalo 51%

Market (consensus)

Buffalo +7

Edge: Buffalo +7 (6.5 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 2, 2021

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Western MichiganWestern Michigan
7001724
BuffaloBuffalo
703717

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014280-77-710-710-1010-2417-24
BuffaloWestern Michigan

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20WMBUFWMBUFWMBUFWMBUFBUFWMBUFWMBUFWMBUFWMBUFWMBUFWMPUNT39ydPUNT1033ydTD1695ydTD265ydMISS955ydTO750ydDOWNS1652ydEND14ydFG1362ydMISS1049ydPUNT3-5ydDOWNS4-3ydPUNT36ydFG1367ydPUNT32ydTD179ydPUNT30ydTD1166ydTD765ydEND2-4yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Western Michigan and Buffalo
StatisticWestern MichiganBuffalo
Passing21-3312-22
Pass Yards279151
Rush Yards178131
Total Yards457282
Turnovers01
3rd Down6-154-11
Penalties5-355-48
Possession40:0619:54

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Western Michigan
passing
Kaleb Eleby
21/33, 279 YDS, 2 TD
rushing
La'Darius Jefferson
23 CAR, 96 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Skyy Moore
11 REC, 163 YDS, 2 TD
defense
Buffalo
passing
Kyle Vantrease
12/22, 151 YDS
rushing
Ron Cook Jr.
3 CAR, 56 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Quian Williams
6 REC, 119 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.00

Sean Tyler run for 8 yds to the WMich 38

2nd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.27

Kaleb Eleby pass incomplete

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.63

Sean Tyler run for 1 yd to the WMich 39

4th & 1Punt+3 yds

Nick Mihalic punt for 38 yds , Ron Cook Jr. returns for 3 yds to the Buff 26

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.62

Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Jake Molinich for 7 yds to the Buff 33

2nd & 3Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.53

Kevin Marks Jr. run for 6 yds to the Buff 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Kevin Marks Jr. run for 3 yds to the Buff 42

2nd & 7Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.44

Kevin Marks Jr. run for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.11

Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.57

Matt Myers run for 7 yds to the WMich 43

3rd & 3Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.41

Dylan McDuffie run for 8 yds to the WMich 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.69

Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete

2nd & 10Penalty+5 yds

MCDUFFIE, Dylan rush to the right for a gain of 6 yards to the WMU29 (BARNES, Zaire;MOERTL, Jake). PENALTY WMU Offsides on FAYAD, Ali enforced 5 yards from the WMU35 to the WMU30 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

2nd & 5Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.89

Kevin Marks Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the WMich 31

3rd & 6Penalty-10 yds

VANTREASE, Kyle pass to the right incomplete intended for JOHNSON, Dominic broken up by JACKSON, Dorian at the WMU20. PENALTY BUF Holding on DOIRON, Deondre enforced 10 yards from the WMU31 to the WMU41 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

3rd & 16Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.75

Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete

3rd & 6Penalty-10 yds

VANTREASE, Kyle pass to the right incomplete intended for JOHNSON, Dominic broken up by JACKSON, Dorian at the WMU20. PENALTY BUF Holding on DOIRON, Deondre enforced 10 yards from the WMU31 to the WMU41 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

3rd & 16Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.75

Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete

4th & 16Punt0 yds

Jackson Baltar punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Bryce Nunnelly at the WMich 5

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.18

La'Darius Jefferson run for 2 yds to the WMich 7

2nd & 8Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Anthony Torres for 5 yds to the WMich 12

3rd & 3Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.62

Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Skyy Moore for 7 yds to the WMich 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +1.88

Kaleb Eleby pass complete to La'Darius Jefferson for 23 yds to the WMich 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Kaleb Eleby run for 5 yds to the WMich 47

2nd & 5Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.84

Kaleb Eleby run for 6 yds to the Buff 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.13

Sean Tyler run for 4 yds to the Buff 43

2nd & 6Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.80

Sean Tyler run for 9 yds to the Buff 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.06

La'Darius Jefferson run for 4 yds to the Buff 30

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.22

La'Darius Jefferson run for 3 yds to the Buff 27

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.80

Kaleb Eleby pass incomplete

4th & 3Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +1.70

Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Skyy Moore for 19 yds to the Buff 8 for a 1ST down

1st & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.21

Sean Tyler run for 2 yds to the Buff 6

2nd & 6Penalty0 yds

TYLER, Sean rush up the middle for no gain to the BUF6 (PATTERSON, James;RIGGINS, Taylor). PENALTY BUF Face mask on MICHEL, Max enforced half the distance from the goal, 3 yards from the BUF6 to the BUF3 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 3Rush0 ydsPPA -0.75

La'Darius Jefferson run for no gain to the Buff 3

2nd & 3Penalty-10 yds

WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Buff 12

2nd & 3Penalty-10 yds

WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Buff 12

2nd & 12Passing Touchdown+12 ydsPPA +2.91

Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Skyy Moore for 12 yds for a TD (Parker Sampson KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.97

Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Ron Cook Jr. for 10 yds to the Buff 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+55 ydsPPA +4.28

Ron Cook Jr. run for 55 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Sean Tyler run for 3 yds to the WMich 28

2nd & 7Penalty-10 yds

ELEBY, Kaleb scrambles to the left for a gain of 3 yards to the WMU31 (PATTERSON, James). PENALTY WMU Illegal Block in the Back on CALIENDO, Mike enforced 10 yards from the WMU28 to the WMU18 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

2nd & 17Rush+18 ydsPPA +2.08

Sean Tyler run for 18 yds to the WMich 36 for a 1ST down

2nd & 7Penalty-10 yds

ELEBY, Kaleb scrambles to the left for a gain of 3 yards to the WMU31 (PATTERSON, James). PENALTY WMU Illegal Block in the Back on CALIENDO, Mike enforced 10 yards from the WMU28 to the WMU18 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

2nd & 17Rush+18 ydsPPA +2.08

Sean Tyler run for 18 yds to the WMich 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +1.38

La'Darius Jefferson run for 15 yds to the Buff 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.10

La'Darius Jefferson run for no gain to the Buff 49

2nd & 10Penalty+10 yds

ELEBY, Kaleb pass up the middle incomplete intended for HALL, Jaylen broken up by HUDGENS, Logic at the BUF0. PENALTY BUF Holding enforced 10 yards from the BUF49 to the BUF39 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +0.48

Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Skyy Moore for 16 yds to the Buff 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Jaxson Kincaide run for 5 yds to the Buff 18

2nd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.14

Jaxson Kincaide run for 3 yds to the Buff 15

3rd & 2Penalty-5 yds

WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Buff 20

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.65

Kaleb Eleby pass incomplete

4th & 7Field Goal Missed+37 yds

Parker Sampson 37 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Kevin Marks Jr. run for 5 yds to the Buff 25

2nd & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.51

Kevin Marks Jr. run for 1 yd to the Buff 26

3rd & 4Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.95

Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Quian Williams for 13 yds to the Buff 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+40 ydsPPA +2.22

Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Quian Williams for 40 yds to the WMich 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.21

Ron Cook Jr. run for 2 yds to the WMich 19

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.43

Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete

3rd & 8Sack0 ydsPPA -0.64

Kyle Vantrease sacked for 0 yards to the WMich 30

3rd & 8Sack0 ydsPPA -0.64

Kyle Vantrease sacked for 0 yards to the WMich 30

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.55

La'Darius Jefferson run for 2 yds to the WMich 32

2nd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.40

La'Darius Jefferson run for 2 yds to the WMich 34

3rd & 6Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +2.80

Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Anthony Torres for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.59

Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Skyy Moore for 7 yds to the Buff 43

2nd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.88

Sean Tyler run for 1 yd to the Buff 42

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.92

Sean Tyler run for 1 yd to the Buff 41

4th & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.95

Kaleb Eleby run for 3 yds to the Buff 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.42

La'Darius Jefferson run for 2 yds to the Buff 36

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.91

Kaleb Eleby pass incomplete

3rd & 8Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.71

Kaleb Eleby run for 10 yds to the Buff 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+10 yds

ELEBY, Kaleb pass to the left incomplete intended for MOORE, Skyy thrown to the BUF18. PENALTY BUF Pass Interference on INGRAM, Ja'Marcus enforced at the spot of the foul for 10 yards to the BUF16 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Kaleb Eleby run for 5 yds to the Buff 11

2nd & 5Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.61

La'Darius Jefferson run for 6 yds to the Buff 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Rush0 ydsPPA -0.55

La'Darius Jefferson run for no gain to the Buff 5

2nd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.11

La'Darius Jefferson run for 3 yds to the Buff 2

3rd & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -0.31

La'Darius Jefferson run for no gain to the Buff 2

4th & 2Sack0 ydsPPA -4.15

Kaleb Eleby sacked for 0 yards to the Buff 18

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.78

Dylan McDuffie run for 10 yds to the Buff 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.10

Dylan McDuffie run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 32

2nd & 11Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.38

Dylan McDuffie run for 7 yds to the Buff 39

3rd & 4Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +1.97

Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Dominic Johnson for 7 yds to the Buff 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.77

Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Jamari Gassett for 10 yds to the WMich 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)0 ydsPPA -0.97

Jake Molinich run for no gain to the WMich 44 fumbled, recovered by Buff Kyle Vantrease

2nd & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.57

Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Quian Williams for 14 yds to the WMich 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.21

Kevin Marks Jr. run for 6 yds to the WMich 24

2nd & 4Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.01

Dylan McDuffie run for 6 yds to the WMich 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.27

Dylan McDuffie run for 1 yd to the WMich 17

2nd & 9Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Dylan McDuffie run for 5 yds to the WMich 12

3rd & 4Fumble Recovery (Own)-3 ydsPPA -0.76

Matt Myers run for a loss of 3 yards to the WMich 15 fumbled, recovered by Buff Matt Myers

4th & 7Field Goal Good+37 yds

Alex McNulty 37 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.25

Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Corey Crooms for 9 yds to the WMich 34

2nd & 1Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.55

Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Corey Crooms for 11 yds to the WMich 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Kaleb Eleby pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.84

Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Skyy Moore for 8 yds to the Buff 47

3rd & 2Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.46

Sean Tyler run for 8 yds to the Buff 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +0.44

Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Skyy Moore for 14 yds to the Buff 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.45

Kaleb Eleby pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.77

La'Darius Jefferson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 26

3rd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.93

Kaleb Eleby pass incomplete

4th & 11Field Goal Missed+43 yds

Parker Sampson 43 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.84

Ron Cook Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 25

2nd & 11Pass Reception-6 ydsPPA -0.48

Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Ron Cook Jr. for a loss of 6 yards to the Buff 19

3rd & 17Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.03

Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Quian Williams for 2 yds to the Buff 21

4th & 15Punt0 yds

Jackson Baltar punt for 12 yds

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Sean Tyler run for 5 yds to the Buff 28

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.66

Kaleb Eleby pass incomplete

3rd & 5Sack0 ydsPPA -0.86

Kaleb Eleby sacked by Daymond Williams for 0 yards to the Buff 36

4th & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.00

Kaleb Eleby pass incomplete

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Kevin Marks Jr. run for 3 yds to the Buff 39

2nd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.37

Kevin Marks Jr. run for 3 yds to the Buff 42

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.75

Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Jackson Baltar punt for 34 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.00

Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Corey Crooms for 12 yds to the WMich 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +1.73

Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Corey Crooms for 20 yds to the Buff 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Anthony Torres for 5 yds to the Buff 39

2nd & 5Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.42

La'Darius Jefferson run for 6 yds to the Buff 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (Jacob Gideon) to the Buff 38

1st & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.86

Kaleb Eleby pass incomplete

2nd & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.02

Kaleb Eleby pass incomplete

3rd & 15Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.12

Kaleb Eleby pass complete to La'Darius Jefferson for 10 yds to the Buff 28

4th & 5Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +1.71

Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Skyy Moore for 7 yds to the Buff 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +0.44

La'Darius Jefferson run for 14 yds to the Buff 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Sack0 ydsPPA -0.41

Kaleb Eleby sacked by Max Michel for 0 yards to the Buff 14

2nd & 14Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.02

Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Anthony Torres for 5 yds to the Buff 9

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.39

Kaleb Eleby pass incomplete

4th & 9Field Goal Good+26 yds

Nick Mihalic 26 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.77

Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.26

Dylan McDuffie run for 2 yds to the Buff 29

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.25

Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Jackson Baltar punt for 50 yds , Bryce Nunnelly returns for no gain to the WMich 21

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

ELEBY, Kaleb pass to the right incomplete intended for MOORE, Skyy broken up by WRIGHT, Kadofi at the WMU21. PENALTY BUF Unsportsmanlike Conduct on WRIGHT, Kadofi enforced 15 yards from the WMU21 to the WMU36 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+64 ydsPPA +5.15

Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Skyy Moore for 64 yds for a TD (Nick Mihalic KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.26

Kevin Marks Jr. run for 3 yds to the Buff 25

2nd & 7Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.65

Kevin Marks Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the Buff 22

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.13

Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Jackson Baltar punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Bryce Nunnelly at the WMich 34

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.70

La'Darius Jefferson run for 7 yds to the WMich 41

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.75

La'Darius Jefferson run for 2 yds to the WMich 43

3rd & 1Rush+17 ydsPPA +2.20

La'Darius Jefferson run for 17 yds to the Buff 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.64

Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Skyy Moore for 8 yds to the Buff 32

2nd & 2Rush+8 ydsPPA -0.13

Sean Tyler run for 8 yds to the Buff 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.32

Sean Tyler run for 7 yds to the Buff 17

2nd & 3Rush+5 ydsPPA -0.17

Sean Tyler run for 5 yds to the Buff 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

La'Darius Jefferson run for 3 yds to the Buff 9

2nd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.16

La'Darius Jefferson run for 2 yds to the Buff 7

3rd & 5Rush+6 ydsPPA +1.85

La'Darius Jefferson run for 6 yds to the Buff 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +0.94

La'Darius Jefferson run for 1 yd for a TD (Nick Mihalic KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.60

Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete

3rd & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +2.58

Kyle Vantrease run for 10 yds to the Buff 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+37 ydsPPA +1.68

Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Quian Williams for 37 yds to the WMich 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.71

Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Quian Williams for 13 yds to the WMich 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Jamari Gassett for 4 yds to the WMich 1

2nd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +1.90

Kyle Vantrease run for 1 yd for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK)

No play data available

Situational Analysis

Western Michigan

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
50%
2 plays
0%
1 play
61%
31 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
17%
6 plays
50%
8 plays
33%
6 plays
80%
5 plays
3rd
43%
7 plays
67%
3 plays
33%
3 plays
50%
2 plays
4th
67%
3 plays
100%
1 play
0%
1 play

Buffalo

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
45%
22 plays
2nd
100%
2 plays
33%
3 plays
44%
9 plays
50%
2 plays
3rd
100%
1 play
50%
4 plays
20%
5 plays
0%
3 plays
4th