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← Back to GamesOct 30, 2021Week 9
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

NC State by 10.5

Home Win Probability

NC State 73%

Market (consensus)

NC State -6

Edge: NC State -6 (4.5 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 30, 2021

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
LouisvilleLouisville
703313
NC StateNC State
7002128

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014287-07-77-1014-1014-1321-1328-13
NC StateLouisville

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20NSLOUNSLOUNSLOUNSLOUNSLOUNSLOULOUNSLOUNSLOUNSLOUNSLOUNSLOUNSDOWNS953ydFG972ydTD980ydTD379ydPUNT34ydTO2-2ydPUNT30ydPUNT520ydPUNT526ydPUNT36ydPUNT38ydEND1439ydFG851ydPUNT3-1ydDOWNS743ydPUNT34ydPUNT532ydTD783ydFG962ydTD975ydDOWNS49ydTD434ydDOWNS49ydEND2-5yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Louisville and NC State
StatisticLouisvilleNC State
Passing11-2925-36
Pass Yards219317
Rush Yards21544
Total Yards434361
Turnovers10
3rd Down6-156-13
Penalties9-695-45
Possession30:3729:23

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Louisville
passing
Malik Cunningham
11/28, 219 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Malik Cunningham
18 CAR, 76 YDS
receiving
Jordan Watkins
2 REC, 83 YDS, 1 TD
defense
NC State
passing
Devin Leary
25/36, 317 YDS, 4 TD
rushing
Zonovan Knight
11 CAR, 23 YDS
receiving
Emeka Emezie
5 REC, 91 YDS, 1 TD
defense
Drake Thomas
2.5 TFL, 1 PD

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Penalty+10 yds

Leary,Devin pass incomplete to Emezie,Emeka PENALTY LOU Holding (Dallas,Marvin) 10 yards from NCS25 to NCS35, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.71

Devin Leary pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 7 yds to the NCSt 42

2nd & 3Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.99

Devin Leary pass complete to Devin Carter for 12 yds to the Lvile 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.79

Zonovan Knight run for 1 yd to the Lvile 47

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Devin Leary pass incomplete to Christopher Toudle

3rd & 11Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +3.02

Devin Leary pass complete to Devin Carter for 17 yds to the Lvile 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.51

Zonovan Knight run for 8 yds to the Lvile 22

2nd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.48

Zonovan Knight run for 1 yd to the Lvile 23

3rd & 3Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.36

Devin Leary pass complete to Devin Carter for 2 yds to the Lvile 21

4th & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +0.79

Zonovan Knight run for 1 yd to the Lvile 22

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Jalen Mitchell run for 5 yds to the Lvile 27

2nd & 5Rush0 ydsPPA -0.66

Malik Cunningham run for no gain to the Lvile 27

3rd & 5Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +1.51

Malik Cunningham pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 7 yds to the Lvile 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

Cunningham,Malik rush for 19 yards gain to the NCS47 (Battle,Shyheim; Ingle,Tanner) PENALTY LOU Holding (Brown,Renato) 10 yards from LOU34 to LOU24. NO PLAY.

1st & 20Rush+33 ydsPPA +3.59

Jalen Mitchell run for 33 yds to the NCSt 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+35 ydsPPA +1.03

Malik Cunningham pass complete to Marshon Ford for 35 yds to the NCSt 8 for a 1ST down

1st & 8Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Malik Cunningham run for 5 yds to the NCSt 3

2nd & 3Sack-4 ydsPPA -0.67

Malik Cunningham sacked by Drake Thomas for a loss of 4 yards to the NCSt 7

3rd & 7Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.10

Malik Cunningham run for 6 yds to the NCSt 1

4th & 1Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY LOU False Start 5 yards from NCS01 to NCS06. NO PLAY.

4th & 6Field Goal Missed+24 yds

James Turner 24 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.11

Ricky Person Jr. run for 9 yds to the NCSt 29

2nd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.33

Ricky Person Jr. run for 2 yds to the NCSt 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY NCS Illegal Snap (Gibson,Grant) 5 yards from NCS31 to NCS26. NO PLAY.

1st & 15Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.38

Devin Leary pass complete to Christopher Toudle for 7 yds to the NCSt 33

2nd & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.28

Devin Leary run for 3 yds to the NCSt 36

3rd & 5Pass Reception+25 ydsPPA +3.31

Devin Leary pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 25 yds to the NCSTATE 39 for a 1ST down LOUISVILLE Penalty, Defensive Holding (Brock Travelstead) declined for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Ricky Person Jr. run for 5 yds to the Lvile 44

2nd & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.98

Devin Leary pass incomplete to Keyon Lesane

3rd & 15Pass Reception+25 ydsPPA +3.39

Devin Leary pass complete to Ricky Person Jr. for 25 yds to the Lvile 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+19 ydsPPA +2.60

Devin Leary pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 19 yds for a TD, (Christopher Dunn KICK)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+21 yds

Trenton Gill kickoff for 65 yds , Hassan Hall return for 21 yds to the Lvile 21

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.25

Trevion Cooley run for 3 yds to the Lvile 24

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.46

Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Justin Marshall

3rd & 7Passing Touchdown+76 ydsPPA +7.04

Malik Cunningham pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 76 yds for a TD, (James Turner KICK)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+25 yds

Brock Travelstead kickoff for 61 yds , Zonovan Knight return for 25 yds to the NCSt 29

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.83

Devin Leary pass incomplete to Devin Carter

2nd & 10Sack-7 ydsPPA -0.70

Devin Leary sacked for a loss of 7 yards to the NCSt 22

3rd & 17Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.22

Devin Leary pass complete to C.J. Riley for 11 yds to the NCSt 33

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Trenton Gill punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Jordan Watkins at the Lvile 15

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.29

Hassan Hall run for 2 yds to the Lvile 13

2nd & 12Interception0 ydsPPA +0.17

Malik Cunningham pass intercepted

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.12

Devin Leary pass incomplete to Emeka Emezie

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.76

Devin Leary pass incomplete to Devin Carter

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.41

Devin Leary pass incomplete to Emeka Emezie

4th & 10Punt+7 yds

Trenton Gill punt for 45 yds , Jordan Watkins returns for 7 yds to the Lvile 22

4th & 10Punt+7 yds

Trenton Gill punt for 45 yds , Jordan Watkins returns for 7 yds to the Lvile 12

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Malik Cunningham pass complete to Marshon Ford for 4 yds to the Lvile 16

2nd & 6Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.58

Jalen Mitchell run for 7 yds to the Lvile 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.64

Jalen Mitchell run for no gain to the Lvile 23

2nd & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.63

Malik Cunningham pass complete to Marshon Ford for 9 yds to the Lvile 32

3rd & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.64

Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Mark Vassett punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Thayer Thomas at the NCSt 25

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Zonovan Knight run for 3 yds to the NCSt 28

2nd & 7Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +2.19

Devin Leary pass complete to Keyon Lesane for 18 yds to the NCSt 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.92

Zonovan Knight run for 1 yd to the NCSt 47

2nd & 9Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Devin Leary pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 4 yds to the Lvile 49

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.97

Devin Leary pass incomplete to Emeka Emezie

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Trenton Gill punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jordan Watkins at the Lvile 9

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Trevion Cooley run for 5 yds to the Lvile 14

2nd & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.31

Trevion Cooley run for 1 yd to the Lvile 15

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.20

Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Shai Werts

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Mark Vassett punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Thayer Thomas at the NCSt 40

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.12

Devin Leary pass incomplete to Devin Carter

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.48

Ricky Person Jr. run for 2 yds to the NCSt 42

3rd & 8Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.22

Devin Leary pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 6 yds to the NCSt 48

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Trenton Gill punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jordan Watkins at the Lvile 12

1st & 10Penalty-6 yds

Cunningham,Malik pass complete to Ford,Marshon for 46 yards to the NCS42 (Scott,Jaylon) PENALTY LOU Face Mask (Boone,Adonis) 6 yards from LOU12 to LOU06. NO PLAY.

1st & 16Rush0 ydsPPA -0.13

Jalen Mitchell run for no gain to the Lvile 6

2nd & 16Penalty-9 yds

LOUISVILLE Penalty, Face Mask (9 yards) (-9 Yards) to the Lvile 7

2nd & 19Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.05

Jalen Mitchell run for 8 yds to the Lvile 11

2nd & 15Penalty-4 yds

PENALTY LOU False Start (Huggins-Bruce,Ahmari) 4 yards from LOU07 to LOU03. NO PLAY.

3rd & 11Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.09

Malik Cunningham pass complete to Hassan Hall for 12 yds to the Lvile 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.64

Malik Cunningham pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.14

Hassan Hall run for 3 yds to the Lvile 26

3rd & 7Penalty+5 yds

PENALTY NCS Offside (Vann,Davin) 5 yards from LOU26 to LOU31. NO PLAY.

3rd & 2Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.26

Malik Cunningham run for 5 yds to the Lvile 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Shai Werts

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Malik Cunningham run for 5 yds to the Lvile 41

3rd & 5Rush+6 ydsPPA +2.03

Trevion Cooley run for 6 yds to the Lvile 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.15

Malik Cunningham pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.96

Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Trevion Cooley

3rd & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +2.97

Malik Cunningham run for 12 yds to the NCSt 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty0 yds

LOUISVILLE Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declined

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Pass Reception+39 ydsPPA +3.07

Malik Cunningham pass complete to Justin Marshall for 39 yds to the NCSt 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Jalen Mitchell run for 5 yds to the NCSt 31

2nd & 5Rush-5 ydsPPA -1.75

Jalen Mitchell run for 5 yds to the NCSt 26 LOUISVILLE Penalty, Offensive Holding (Trevor Reid) to the NCSt 39

2nd & 13Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.61

Malik Cunningham pass complete to Justin Marshall for 14 yds to the NCSt 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.45

Jalen Mitchell run for no gain to the NCSt 25

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.46

Jalen Mitchell run for 1 yd to the NCSt 24

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.83

Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Justin Marshall

4th & 9Field Goal Good+42 yds

James Turner 42 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.83

Zonovan Knight run for 1 yd to the NCSt 36

2nd & 9Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.44

Devin Leary pass complete to Zonovan Knight for 2 yds to the NCSt 38

3rd & 7Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Devin Leary pass complete to Derrick Eason for 4 yds to the NCSt 34

4th & 11Punt+6 yds

Trenton Gill punt for 53 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Lvile 19 , Jordan Watkins returns for 6 yds to the Lvile 19

1st & 10Rush+18 ydsPPA +1.39

Trevion Cooley run for 18 yds to the Lvile 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Trevion Cooley run for 4 yds to the Lvile 41

2nd & 6Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.74

Malik Cunningham run for 14 yds to the NCSt 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.00

Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Marshon Ford

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.07

Jalen Mitchell run for no gain to the NCSt 45

3rd & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.51

Malik Cunningham run for 7 yds to the NCSt 38

4th & 3Rush0 ydsPPA -1.97

Malik Cunningham run for no gain to the NCSt 38

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.09

Devin Leary pass incomplete to Emeka Emezie

2nd & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.13

Devin Leary pass complete to Ricky Person Jr. for 4 yds to the NCSt 42

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.64

Devin Leary pass incomplete to Porter Rooks

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Trenton Gill punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Jordan Watkins at the Lvile 14

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.42

Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Dez Melton

2nd & 10Rush+34 ydsPPA +3.07

Hassan Hall run for 34 yds to the Lvile 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.14

Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Tyler Harrell pass intercepted

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.60

Hassan Hall run for 2 yds to the Lvile 46

3rd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.50

Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Hassan Hall

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Mark Vassett punt for 37 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +1.48

Devin Leary pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 20 yds to the NCSt 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.07

Ricky Person Jr. run for no gain to the NCSt 37

2nd & 10Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY NCS False Start (Gibson,Grant) 5 yards from NCS37 to NCS32. NO PLAY.

2nd & 15Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.15

Devin Leary pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 3 yds to the NCSt 35

3rd & 12Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +3.19

Devin Leary pass complete to Ricky Person Jr. for 16 yds to the Lvile 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.38

Ricky Person Jr. run for 3 yds to the NCSt 48

2nd & 13Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +2.75

Devin Leary pass complete to Porter Rooks for 23 yds to the Lvile 29 for a 1ST down

2nd & 13Penalty0 yds

PENALTY LOU Personal Foul offsetting NCS Personal Foul offsetting. NO PLAY.

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+29 ydsPPA +2.79

Devin Leary pass complete to Trent Pennix for 29 yds for a TD, (Christopher Dunn KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Malik Cunningham pass complete to Jalen Mitchell for 3 yds to the Lvile 28

2nd & 7Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.71

Malik Cunningham pass complete to Justin Marshall for 13 yds to the Lvile 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Malik Cunningham run for 6 yds to the Lvile 47

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.24

Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Jordan Watkins

3rd & 4Penalty+15 yds

Cunningham,Malik pass incomplete to Johnson,Josh QB hurried by Jones,Levi PENALTY NCS Roughing The Passer (Jones,Levi) 15 yards from LOU47 to NCS38, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

1st & 10Rush+24 ydsPPA +0.55

Malik Cunningham run for 9 yds to the NCSt 29 for a 1ST down NC STATE Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Tanner Ingle) to the NCSt 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY LOU False Start (Harrell,Tyler) 5 yards from NCS14 to NCS19. NO PLAY.

1st & 15Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Jalen Mitchell run for 3 yds to the NCSt 16

2nd & 12Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.03

Jalen Mitchell run for 5 yds to the NCSt 11

3rd & 7Sack-2 ydsPPA -0.64

Malik Cunningham sacked by Drake Thomas for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSt 13

4th & 9Field Goal Good+31 yds

James Turner 31 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.91

Devin Leary pass complete to Trent Pennix for 8 yds to the NCSt 33

2nd & 2Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.12

Zonovan Knight run for 4 yds to the NCSt 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.04

Zonovan Knight run for 8 yds to the NCSt 45

2nd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -1.09

Zonovan Knight run for 1 yd to the NCSt 46

3rd & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +1.01

Devin Leary run for 1 yd to the NCSt 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +1.28

Devin Leary pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 23 yds to the Lvile 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +0.28

Devin Leary pass complete to Trent Pennix for 18 yds to the Lvile 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Devin Leary pass incomplete to Emeka Emezie

2nd & 10Passing Touchdown+12 ydsPPA +2.83

Devin Leary pass complete to Devin Carter for 12 yds for a TD, (Christopher Dunn KICK)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+17 yds

Trenton Gill kickoff for 57 yds , Hassan Hall return for 17 yds to the Lvile 25

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Jordan Watkins

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Jalen Mitchell

3rd & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.23

Malik Cunningham run for 8 yds to the Lvile 33

4th & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.10

Malik Cunningham run for 1 yd to the Lvile 34

1st & 10Rush+17 ydsPPA +0.36

Ricky Person Jr. run for 17 yds to the Lvile 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.26

Ricky Person Jr. run for 1 yd to the Lvile 18

2nd & 11Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.28

Trent Pennix run for 8 yds to the Lvile 10

3rd & 3Passing Touchdown+10 ydsPPA +2.72

Devin Leary pass complete to C.J. Riley for 10 yds for a TD, (Christopher Dunn KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Jordan Watkins

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce

3rd & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.15

Malik Cunningham pass complete to Shai Werts for 7 yds to the Lvile 32

4th & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.02

Malik Cunningham run for 2 yds to the Lvile 34

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.66

Zonovan Knight run for no gain to the Lvile 34

2nd & 10Rush-5 ydsPPA -1.96

run for a loss of 5 yards to the Lvile 39

Situational Analysis

Louisville

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
38%
24 plays
33%
3 plays
2nd
0%
1 play
33%
6 plays
33%
12 plays
100%
4 plays
3rd
50%
2 plays
67%
3 plays
75%
8 plays
50%
2 plays
4th
0%
3 plays

NC State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
48%
25 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
40%
5 plays
20%
10 plays
40%
5 plays
3rd
67%
3 plays
33%
3 plays
33%
3 plays
100%
4 plays
4th
100%
1 play