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← Back to GamesNov 18, 2020Week 12
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Buffalo by 23.6

Home Win Probability

Bowling Green 8%

Market (consensus)

Bowling Green +31.5

Edge: Bowling Green +31.5 (7.9 pts)

fitted_v1 · Nov 18, 2020

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
BuffaloBuffalo
71414742
Bowling GreenBowling Green
3001417

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428420-73-73-143-213-2810-3517-3517-42
Bowling GreenBuffalo

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20BUFBGBUFBGBUFBGBUFBGBUFBGBUFBGBUFBGBUFBGBUFBGBUFBGTD774ydFG1050ydPUNT37ydMISS1155ydTD1380ydPUNT39ydTD1375ydDOWNS646ydEND1-1ydPUNT3-13ydDOWNS48ydDOWNS744ydTD855ydTO760ydTD480ydTD1376ydPUNT32ydTD1055ydTD475ydEND322yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Buffalo and Bowling Green
StatisticBuffaloBowling Green
Passing7-1217-27
Pass Yards74219
Rush Yards396180
Total Yards470399
Turnovers01
3rd Down4-84-12
Penalties4-353-15
Possession29:3830:22

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Buffalo
passing
Kyle Vantrease
7/12, 74 YDS
rushing
Jaret Patterson
31 CAR, 301 YDS, 4 TD
receiving
Antonio Nunn
6 REC, 70 YDS
defense
Bowling Green
passing
Matt McDonald
17/27, 219 YDS, 1 INT
rushing
Andrew Clair
14 CAR, 85 YDS
receiving
Julian Ortega-Jones
6 REC, 67 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.31

Jaret Patterson run for 3 yds to the Buff 29

2nd & 7Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.56

Jaret Patterson run for 11 yds to the Buff 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Jaret Patterson run for 6 yds to the Buff 46

2nd & 4Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.67

Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 6 yds to the BwGrn 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+28 ydsPPA +1.07

Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 28 yds to the BwGrn 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.12

Jaret Patterson run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 17

2nd & 7Rushing Touchdown+17 ydsPPA +2.74

Jaret Patterson run for 17 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK)

1st & 10Rush+21 ydsPPA +1.92

Andrew Clair run for 21 yds to the BwGrn 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

BOWLING GREEN Penalty, false start (Derek Downs) to the BwGrn 43

1st & 15Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.56

Matt McDonald run for 7 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 8Penalty-5 yds

MCDONALD, Matt pass complete to ORTEGA-JONES, J for 6 yards to the UB44, out-of-bounds, PENALTY BGSU ineligible downfield on pass (GRANT, Jalen) 5 yards to the BGSU45, NO PLAY.

2nd & 13Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.76

Matt McDonald pass complete to Noah Massey for 12 yds to the Buff 43

3rd & 1Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.96

Andrew Clair run for 5 yds to the Buff 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.25

Andrew Clair run for 3 yds to the Buff 35

2nd & 7Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.69

Matt McDonald pass complete to Tyrone Broden Jr. for 13 yds to the Buff 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-4 ydsPPA -0.83

Matt McDonald sacked by Malcolm Koonce for a loss of 4 yards to the Buff 26

2nd & 14Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.24

Trevon Raymore run for 3 yds to the Buff 23

3rd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.85

Matt McDonald pass incomplete to Julian Ortega-Jones

4th & 11Field Goal Good+40 yds

Nate Needham 40 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Penalty+5 yds

BOWLING GREEN Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the Buff 33

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Evan Finegan punt for 36 yds , Jake Rogers returns for no gain to the BwGrn 29

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.39

Kevin Marks Jr. run for 3 yds to the Buff 36

2nd & 7Penalty-10 yds

PATTERSON, Jare rush for 9 yards to the UB45 (ANDERS, Darren;MITCHELL, C.), PENALTY UB illegal use of hands (GALL, Jacob) 10 yards to the UB26, NO PLAY.

2nd & 17Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.18

Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Antonio Nunn

3rd & 17Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.16

Kevin Marks Jr. run for 9 yds to the Buff 35

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.66

Andrew Clair run for 7 yds to the BwGrn 36

2nd & 3Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.26

Andrew Clair run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+26 ydsPPA +1.88

Matt McDonald pass complete to Julian Ortega-Jones for 26 yds to the Buff 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.69

Matt McDonald pass incomplete to Noah Massey

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Andrew Clair run for 5 yds to the Buff 30

3rd & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.71

Andrew Clair run for 1 yd to the Buff 29

4th & 4Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +1.63

Matt McDonald pass complete to Julian Ortega-Jones for 5 yds to the Buff 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.23

Matt McDonald pass complete to Julian Ortega-Jones for 2 yds to the Buff 22

2nd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.26

Trevon Raymore run for 2 yds to the Buff 20

3rd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Matt McDonald run for 4 yds to the Buff 16

4th & 2Field Goal Missed+33 yds

Nate Needham 33 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.53

Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 7 yds to the Buff 27

2nd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.69

Jaret Patterson run for 1 yd to the Buff 28

3rd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.95

Jaret Patterson run for 3 yds to the Buff 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.68

Jaret Patterson run for 7 yds to the Buff 38

2nd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.36

Jaret Patterson run for 4 yds to the Buff 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 6 yds to the Buff 48

2nd & 4Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.55

Jaret Patterson run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.05

Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Dominic Johnson

2nd & 10Rush+21 ydsPPA +1.94

Kevin Marks Jr. run for 21 yds to the BwGrn 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +0.20

Kevin Marks Jr. run for 15 yds to the BwGrn 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Kevin Marks Jr. run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 7

2nd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Kevin Marks Jr. run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 3

3rd & 2Rushing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +2.55

Kevin Marks Jr. run for 3 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.27

Matt McDonald pass complete to Terion Stewart for 3 yds to the BwGrn 26

2nd & 7Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.08

Matt McDonald pass complete to Quintin Morris for 4 yds to the BwGrn 30

3rd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.30

Terion Stewart run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 32

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Matt Naranjo punt for 43 yds, downed at the Buff 25

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.03

Jaret Patterson run for 12 yds to the Buff 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

BUFFALO Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Buff 32

1st & 15Rush+14 ydsPPA +2.50

Jaret Patterson run for 14 yds to the Buff 46

2nd & 1Rush+5 ydsPPA -0.09

Jaret Patterson run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.33

Jaret Patterson run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard line

2nd & 11Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.05

Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 9 yds to the BwGrn 41

3rd & 2Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.90

Jaret Patterson run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.81

Jaret Patterson run for no gain to the BwGrn 39

2nd & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.25

Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 14 yds to the BwGrn 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.16

Kevin Marks Jr. run for 12 yds to the BwGrn 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

BUFFALO Penalty, false start (Jack Klenk) to the BwGrn 18

1st & 15Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.03

Kevin Marks Jr. run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 13

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Kevin Marks Jr. run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 8

3rd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Kevin Marks Jr. run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 4

4th & 1Rushing Touchdown+4 ydsPPA +2.83

Jaret Patterson run for 4 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK)

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Matt McDonald run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 30

2nd & 5Pass Reception+33 ydsPPA +2.93

Matt McDonald pass complete to Noah Massey for 33 yds to the Buff 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.08

Matt McDonald pass complete to Julian Ortega-Jones for 4 yds to the Buff 33

2nd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.08

Matt McDonald run for 4 yds to the Buff 29

3rd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.86

Matt McDonald pass incomplete to Julian Ortega-Jones

4th & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -2.93

Matt McDonald pass incomplete to Tyrone Broden Jr.

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.95

TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 28

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Sack-6 ydsPPA -1.11

Matt McDonald sacked by Malcolm Koonce for a loss of 6 yards to the BwGrn 19

2nd & 16Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.08

Andrew Clair run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 21

3rd & 14Sack-9 ydsPPA -0.13

Matt McDonald sacked by George Wolo for a loss of 9 yards to the BwGrn 12

4th & 23Punt+27 yds

Matt Naranjo punt for 34 yds , Ron Cook Jr. returns for 27 yds to the BwGrn 19

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.20

Jaret Patterson run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 17

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.39

Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete

3rd & 8Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.13

Jaret Patterson run for 6 yds to the BwGrn 11

4th & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -3.94

Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Kevin Marks Jr.

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.22

Terion Stewart run for 6 yds to the BwGrn 17

2nd & 4Pass Reception+25 ydsPPA +1.98

Matt McDonald pass complete to Quintin Morris for 25 yds to the BwGrn 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.02

Matt McDonald pass complete to Quintin Morris for 12 yds to the Buff 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.03

Matt McDonald pass incomplete to Quintin Morris, broken up by Malcolm Koonce

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.85

Matt McDonald run for 1 yd to the Buff 45

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.90

Matt McDonald pass incomplete to Noah Massey, broken up by Kadofi Wright

4th & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.68

Matt McDonald pass incomplete to Noah Massey, broken up by James Patterson

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.94

Jaret Patterson run for 8 yds to the BwGrn 47

2nd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.99

Jaret Patterson run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 46

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.98

Jaret Patterson run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+18 ydsPPA +0.65

Jaret Patterson run for 18 yds to the BwGrn 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Jaret Patterson run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 21

2nd & 6Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.18

Jaret Patterson run for 6 yds to the BwGrn 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.32

Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rushing Touchdown+15 ydsPPA +2.88

Jaret Patterson run for 15 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK)

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.28

Andrew Clair run for 9 yds to the BwGrn 35

2nd & 1Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.07

Andrew Clair run for 6 yds to the BwGrn 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+27 ydsPPA +1.79

Matt McDonald pass complete to Julian Ortega-Jones for 27 yds to the Buff 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.53

Jhaylin Embry run for 8 yds to the Buff 24

2nd & 2Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA -0.21

Matt McDonald pass complete to Noah Massey for 10 yds to the Buff 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.31

Bryson Denley run for no gain to the Buff 14

2nd & 10Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -4.14

Matt McDonald pass intercepted, touchback. Marcus Fuqua return for no gain

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Trevor Wilson for 4 yds to the Buff 24

2nd & 6Rush+67 ydsPPA +4.05

Jaret Patterson run for 67 yds to the BwGrn 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Kevin Marks Jr. run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 6

2nd & 6Rushing Touchdown+6 ydsPPA +2.53

Kyle Vantrease run for 6 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK)

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.32

Andrew Clair run for 6 yds to the BwGrn 30

2nd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.34

Andrew Clair run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 33

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.02

Andrew Clair run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Matt McDonald pass incomplete to Tyrone Broden Jr.

2nd & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +2.09

Andrew Clair run for 11 yds to the BwGrn 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.18

Bryson Denley run for 9 yds to the Buff 44

2nd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.38

Bryson Denley run for 2 yds to the Buff 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.29

Matt McDonald pass complete to Julian Ortega-Jones for 3 yds to the Buff 39

2nd & 7Penalty+15 yds

MCDONALD, Matt pass incomplete to KINSEY, Javonte, PENALTY UB pass interference (BROWN, E.J.) 15 yards to the UB24, 1ST DOWN BGSU, NO PLAY.

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.43

Matt McDonald pass incomplete to Quintin Morris

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Terion Stewart run for 5 yds to the Buff 19

3rd & 5Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.02

Terion Stewart run for 13 yds to the Buff 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.39

Terion Stewart run for 1 yd to the Buff 5

2nd & 5Rushing Touchdown+5 ydsPPA +2.44

Terion Stewart run for 5 yds for a TD (Nate Needham KICK)

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Kevin Marks Jr. run for 5 yds to the Buff 30

2nd & 5Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.03

Kevin Marks Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the Buff 27

3rd & 8Rush0 ydsPPA -0.22

Kevin Marks Jr. run for no gain to the Buff 27

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Evan Finegan punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BwGrn 45

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.80

Jhaylin Embry run for 10 yds to the Buff 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-8 ydsPPA -2.68

Matt McDonald sacked by Kyler Laing for a loss of 8 yards to the BwGrn 47

2nd & 18Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.41

Matt McDonald pass complete to Andrew Clair for 7 yds to the Buff 46

3rd & 11Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.65

Matt McDonald run for 1 yd to the Buff 45

4th & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +3.53

Matt McDonald pass complete to Presley Motes for 13 yds to the Buff 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.22

Bryson Denley run for 6 yds to the Buff 26

2nd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.19

Bryson Denley run for 3 yds to the Buff 23

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.21

Terion Stewart run for 2 yds to the Buff 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +1.69

Matt McDonald pass complete to Quintin Morris for 20 yds to the Buff 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +0.94

Terion Stewart run for 1 yd for a TD (Nate Needham KICK)

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.91

Jaret Patterson run for 8 yds to the Buff 33

2nd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.02

Jaret Patterson run for 3 yds to the Buff 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.71

Jaret Patterson run for 7 yds to the Buff 43

2nd & 3Rushing Touchdown+57 ydsPPA +4.44

Jaret Patterson run for 57 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.27

Bryson Denley run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 26

2nd & 7Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.53

Bryson Denley run for 12 yds to the BwGrn 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.71

Terion Stewart run for 7 yds to the BwGrn 45

Situational Analysis

Buffalo

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
50%
26 plays
100%
2 plays
2nd
50%
6 plays
71%
7 plays
86%
7 plays
50%
2 plays
3rd
100%
4 plays
0%
1 play
50%
2 plays
100%
1 play
4th
50%
2 plays

Bowling Green

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
0%
1 play
52%
29 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
50%
4 plays
50%
6 plays
56%
9 plays
50%
4 plays
3rd
60%
5 plays
33%
3 plays
0%
1 play
0%
3 plays
4th
0%
1 play
100%
1 play
50%
2 plays