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← Back to GamesNov 5, 2020Week 10
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Buffalo by 9

Home Win Probability

Northern Illinois 25%

Market (consensus)

Northern Illinois +14.5

Edge: Northern Illinois +14.5 (5.5 pts)

fitted_v1 · Nov 5, 2020

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
BuffaloBuffalo
14721749
Northern IllinoisNorthern Illinois
31301430

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q40142842563-73-1410-1416-2116-2816-4216-4924-4930-49
Northern IllinoisBuffalo

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20NIBUFNIBUFNIBUFNIBUFNIBUFNIBUFNIBUFBUFNININIBUFNIBUFNINIBUFNIBUFNIBUFPUNT36ydTD355ydFG1450ydTD761ydPUNT32ydPUNT32ydTD437ydTO513ydPUNT30ydPUNT30ydPUNT3-1ydTD793ydTD560ydEND319ydPUNT626ydTD533ydTD221ydPUNT33ydTD467ydTO423ydPUNT425ydTD1159ydTD1565ydPUNT3-8ydTD457ydTO20ydTO2-16ydEND1-1yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Buffalo and Northern Illinois
StatisticBuffaloNorthern Illinois
Passing11-1719-33
Pass Yards175241
Rush Yards182156
Total Yards357397
Turnovers25
3rd Down3-95-14
Penalties8-637-65
Possession22:4037:20

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Buffalo
passing
Kyle Vantrease
11/17, 175 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Jaret Patterson
20 CAR, 137 YDS, 2 TD
receiving
Antonio Nunn
6 REC, 102 YDS, 1 TD
defense
Northern Illinois
passing
Ross Bowers
17/28, 202 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Harrison Waylee
13 CAR, 66 YDS
receiving
Tyrice Richie
9 REC, 106 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.15

Erin Collins run for 3 yds to the NoIll 13

2nd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.11

Erin Collins run for 3 yds to the NoIll 16

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.21

Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Cole Tucker

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Matt Ference punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Ron Cook Jr. at the Buff 45

1st & 10Rush+19 ydsPPA +1.27

Jaret Patterson run for 19 yds to the NoIll 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+31 ydsPPA +1.13

Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Zac Lefebvre for 31 yds to the NoIll 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Rushing Touchdown+5 ydsPPA +1.88

Jaret Patterson run for 5 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.25

Ross Bowers pass complete to Tyrice Richie for 9 yds to the NoIll 34

2nd & 1Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.17

Erin Collins run for 7 yds to the NoIll 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.70

Ross Bowers pass complete to Cole Tucker for 7 yds to the NoIll 48

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.75

Erin Collins run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line

3rd & 1Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.24

Erin Collins run for 5 yds to the Buff 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-7 ydsPPA -2.51

Ross Bowers sacked by Malcolm Koonce for a loss of 7 yards to the NoIll 48

2nd & 17Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.44

Ross Bowers pass complete to Daniel Crawford for 7 yds to the Buff 45

3rd & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.51

Ross Bowers run for 7 yds to the Buff 38

4th & 3Penalty+5 yds

BUFFALO Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Buff 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.34

Erin Collins run for 2 yds to the Buff 31

2nd & 8Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.58

Ross Bowers pass complete to Tyrice Richie for 8 yds to the Buff 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.32

Erin Collins run for 1 yd to the Buff 22

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Daniel Crawford

3rd & 9Sack-3 ydsPPA -1.38

Ross Bowers sacked by Max Michel and Ronald McGee for a loss of 3 yards to the Buff 25

4th & 12Field Goal Good+43 yds

John Richardson 43 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Jaret Patterson run for 3 yds to the Buff 42

2nd & 7Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.87

Jaret Patterson run for 14 yds to the NoIll 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.30

Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 6 yds to the NoIll 38

2nd & 4Rush+18 ydsPPA +0.39

Jaret Patterson run for 3 yds to the NoIll 35 for a 1ST down NORTHERNIL Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the NoIll 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.12

Jaret Patterson run for 3 yds to the NoIll 17

2nd & 7Rush0 ydsPPA -0.40

Jaret Patterson run for no gain to the NoIll 17

3rd & 7Passing Touchdown+17 ydsPPA +3.14

Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 17 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Erin Collins run for 3 yds to the NoIll 28

2nd & 7Penalty+5 yds

BUFFALO Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the NoIll 33

2nd & 2Rush-6 ydsPPA -1.84

Tyrice Richie run for a loss of 6 yards to the NoIll 27

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.22

Ross Bowers pass incomplete

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Matt Ference punt for 53 yds , Ron Cook Jr. returns for no gain to the Buff 20

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Zac Lefebvre

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.17

Kevin Marks Jr. run for 2 yds to the Buff 22

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.17

Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Evan Finegan punt for 15 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Buff 37

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.40

Erin Collins run for 2 yds to the Buff 35

2nd & 8Penalty-5 yds

NORTHERNIL Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Buff 40

2nd & 13Pass Reception+28 ydsPPA +1.86

Ross Bowers pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 28 yds to the Buff 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.18

Erin Collins run for 6 yds to the Buff 6

2nd & 4Rushing Touchdown+6 ydsPPA +2.35

Erin Collins run for 6 yds for a TD (John Richardson KICK)

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.91

Kevin Marks Jr. run for 8 yds to the Buff 33

2nd & 2Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.08

Kevin Marks Jr. run for 2 yds to the Buff 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Trevor Wilson run for 3 yds to the Buff 38

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.87

Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Zac Lefebvre

3rd & 7Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -0.48

Kyle Vantrease pass intercepted Jordan Hansen return for no gain to the NoIll 38

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Erin Collins run for 5 yds to the NoIll 43

2nd & 5Rush0 ydsPPA -1.13

Harrison Waylee run for no gain to the NoIll 43

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.73

Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Cole Tucker

4th & 5Penalty-5 yds

NORTHERNIL Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NoIll 38

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Matt Ference punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Ron Cook Jr. at the Buff 20

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Jaret Patterson run for 4 yds to the Buff 24

2nd & 6Penalty-10 yds

BUFFALO Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Buff 14

2nd & 16Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.05

Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 6 yds to the Buff 20

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.12

Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Evan Finegan punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Buff 48

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Cole Tucker

2nd & 10Penalty-5 yds

NORTHERNIL Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NoIll 47

2nd & 15Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Ross Bowers pass complete to Erin Collins for 4 yds to the Buff 49

3rd & 11Rush0 ydsPPA -0.69

Erin Collins run for no gain to the Buff 49

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Matt Ference punt for 42 yds, downed at the Buff 7

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)-2 ydsPPA -0.38

Jaret Patterson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 5 Jaret Patterson fumbled, recovered by Buff Jaret Patterson

2nd & 12Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +1.04

Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 18 yds to the Buff 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.42

Jaret Patterson run for 2 yds to the Buff 25

2nd & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.19

Jaret Patterson run for 3 yds to the Buff 28

3rd & 5Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +1.57

Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Dominic Johnson for 7 yds to the Buff 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.38

Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Dominic Johnson for 9 yds to the Buff 44

2nd & 1Rushing Touchdown+56 ydsPPA +3.86

Jaret Patterson run for 56 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Ross Bowers pass complete to Cole Tucker for 6 yds to the NoIll 46

2nd & 4Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.94

Ross Bowers pass complete to Tyrice Richie for 10 yds to the Buff 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

BUFFALO Penalty, Roughing Passer (15 Yards) to the Buff 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Rondarius Gregory run for 4 yds to the Buff 25

2nd & 6Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.27

Ross Bowers pass complete to Tyrice Richie for 9 yds to the Buff 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+16 ydsPPA +2.57

Ross Bowers pass complete to Cole Tucker for 16 yds for a TD Timeout BUFFALO, clock 00:35 (Two-Point Conversion failed )

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.25

Jaret Patterson run for 9 yds to the Buff 34

2nd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.32

Jaret Patterson run for 2 yds to the Buff 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.04

Jaret Patterson run for 8 yds to the Buff 44

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.79

Jaret Patterson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Buff 18

2nd & 13Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.35

Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 9 yds to the Buff 27

3rd & 4Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +2.21

Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Jovany Ruiz for 15 yds to the Buff 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Jaret Patterson run for 5 yds to the Buff 47

2nd & 5Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.41

Jaret Patterson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 46

3rd & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.64

Jaret Patterson run for 1 yd to the Buff 47

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Evan Finegan punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Cole Tucker at the NoIll 13

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.34

Erin Collins run for 1 yd to the NoIll 14

2nd & 9Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.34

Ross Bowers pass complete to Tyrice Richie for 16 yds to the NoIll 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.72

Erin Collins run for 1 yd to the NoIll 31

2nd & 9Pass Reception+28 ydsPPA +3.17

Ross Bowers pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 28 yds to the Buff 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+46 ydsPPA -3.76

Ross Bowers run for a loss of 13 yards Ross Bowers fumbled, recovered by Buff Tim Terry Jr. , return for 46 yds (Alex McNulty KICK)

1st & 10Rush+19 ydsPPA +1.57

Tyrice Richie run for 19 yds to the NoIll 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+42 ydsPPA -2.24

Erin Collins run for 2 yds Erin Collins fumbled, recovered by Buff Isaiah King , return for 42 yds (Alex McNulty KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Rondarius Gregory run for 3 yds to the NoIll 28

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Cole Tucker

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.27

Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Cole Tucker

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Matt Ference punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Ron Cook Jr. at the Buff 33

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.06

Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Zac Lefebvre for 11 yds to the Buff 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+46 ydsPPA +1.86

Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 46 yds to the NoIll 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.18

Jaret Patterson run for 6 yds to the NoIll 4

2nd & 4Rushing Touchdown+4 ydsPPA +2.33

Kyle Vantrease run for 4 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Rondarius Gregory run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 7Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.27

Rondarius Gregory run for 9 yds to the Buff 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.40

Ross Bowers pass complete to Tyrice Richie for 10 yds to the Buff 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+1 ydsPPA -4.16

Rondarius Gregory run for 1 yd to the Buff 30 Rondarius Gregory fumbled, recovered by Buff Eddie Zinn-Turner

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Kevin Marks Jr. run for 5 yds to the Buff 35

2nd & 5Penalty+15 yds

NORTHERNIL Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.84

Kevin Marks Jr. run for 8 yds to the NoIll 42

2nd & 2Penalty-10 yds

BUFFALO Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Buff 48

2nd & 12Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.54

Kevin Marks Jr. run for 7 yds to the NoIll 45

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.05

Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Dominic Johnson

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Evan Finegan punt for 37 yds, downed at the NoIll 8

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.13

Rondarius Gregory run for 3 yds to the NoIll 11

2nd & 7Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Ross Bowers pass complete to Tyrice Richie for 4 yds to the NoIll 15

3rd & 3Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +1.68

Ross Bowers pass complete to Tyrice Richie for 19 yds to the NoIll 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +1.86

Ross Bowers pass complete to Tyrice Richie for 21 yds to the Buff 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.51

Rondarius Gregory run for 7 yds to the Buff 38

2nd & 3Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.98

Ross Bowers pass complete to Rondarius Gregory for no gain to the Buff 38

3rd & 3Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.04

Rondarius Gregory run for 5 yds to the Buff 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.64

Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Trayvon Rudolph

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.86

Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Dennis Robinson

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.02

Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Dennis Robinson

4th & 10Interception Return Touchdown+65 ydsPPA -8.59

Ross Bowers pass intercepted for a TD Kadofi Wright return for 65 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK)

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.18

Harrison Waylee run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 34

2nd & 11Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.12

Harrison Waylee run for 10 yds to the NoIll 44

3rd & 1Rush+14 ydsPPA +2.00

Harrison Waylee run for 14 yds to the Buff 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.47

Harrison Waylee run for 7 yds to the Buff 35

2nd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.68

Rondarius Gregory run for 1 yd to the Buff 34

3rd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Andrew Haidet pass incomplete

4th & 2Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +1.72

Andrew Haidet pass complete to Messiah Travis for 5 yds to the Buff 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Harrison Waylee run for 4 yds to the Buff 25

2nd & 6Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.24

Harrison Waylee run for 7 yds to the Buff 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Andrew Haidet pass incomplete to Mohamed Toure

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.22

Harrison Waylee run for 2 yds to the Buff 16

3rd & 8Rush+15 ydsPPA +2.22

Harrison Waylee run for 15 yds to the Buff 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.40

Harrison Waylee run for a loss of 3 yards to the Buff 4

2nd & 4Penalty+2 yds

BUFFALO Penalty, Roughing Passer (2 Yards) to the Buff 2 for a 1ST down

1st & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.69

Harrison Waylee run for 1 yd to the Buff 1

2nd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +1.90

Andrew Haidet run for 1 yd for a TD Timeout NORTHERNIL, clock 04:56 BUFFALO Penalty, Defensive Offside (1 Yards) to the Buff 2 (R. Gregory Run For Two-point Conversion)

2nd & 3Penalty+1 yds

BUFFALO Penalty, Defensive Offside (1 Yards) to the Buff 2

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.32

Matt Myers run for 3 yds to the Buff 30

2nd & 7Rush-10 ydsPPA -1.38

Ron Cook Jr. run for 5 yds to the Buff 35 BUFFALO Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the Buff 20

3rd & 17Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.06

Ron Cook Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 19

4th & 18Punt0 yds

Evan Finegan punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Cole Tucker at the NoIll 43

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Harrison Waylee run for 4 yds to the NoIll 47

2nd & 6Rush+6 ydsPPA +1.02

Harrison Waylee run for 6 yds to the Buff 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+34 ydsPPA +1.07

Rodney Thompson pass complete to Fabian McCray for 34 yds to the Buff 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+13 ydsPPA +2.54

Rodney Thompson run for 13 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Ron Cook Jr. run for 4 yds to the Buff 29

2nd & 6Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+3 ydsPPA -0.81

Matt Myers run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 22 Matt Myers fumbled, recovered by NoIll Michael Kennedy , return for 3 yds to the Buff 22

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

NORTHERNIL Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Buff 32

1st & 20Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.81

Rodney Thompson pass incomplete

2nd & 20Sack-8 ydsPPA -2.27

Rodney Thompson sacked by Eric Black for a loss of 8 yards to the Buff 38 Rodney Thompson fumbled, recovered by Buff Dom Polizzi , return for 0 yards

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.27

TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 37

Situational Analysis

Buffalo

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
54%
24 plays
2nd
33%
3 plays
50%
4 plays
17%
6 plays
100%
4 plays
3rd
50%
4 plays
25%
4 plays
0%
1 play
4th

Northern Illinois

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
2 plays
38%
34 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
33%
6 plays
83%
6 plays
40%
10 plays
60%
5 plays
3rd
80%
5 plays
0%
2 plays
33%
6 plays
0%
1 play
4th
100%
1 play
0%
1 play