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← Back to GamesSep 30, 2017Week 5

House Prediction

Model Margin

Louisville by 18.6

Home Win Probability

Louisville 91%

No market line posted for this game.

elo_v1 · Sep 30, 2017

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Murray State
307010
LouisvilleLouisville
1421101055

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q40142842567-314-321-328-335-338-1045-1048-1055-10
LouisvilleMurray State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20MSLOUMSLOULOUMSLOUMSLOUMSLOUMSLOUMSLOULOUMSLOUMSLOUMSLOUMSLOUMSPUNT36ydTD677ydFG1263ydPUNT36ydTD221ydPUNT69ydTD963ydPUNT32ydTD783ydPUNT37ydTD979ydPUNT30ydTO573ydEND1-2ydTD10ydFG955ydPUNT36ydTD456ydPUNT34ydDOWNS641ydPUNT3-3ydFG1444ydPUNT35ydTD1898ydEND13yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Murray State and Louisville
StatisticMurray StateLouisville
Passing10-2132-45
Pass Yards61364
Rush Yards19312
Total Yards80676
Turnovers12
3rd Down2-127-13
Penalties4-597-69
Possession22:0937:51

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Murray State
passing
Corey Newble
9/17, 64 YDS
rushing
Corey Newble
4 CAR, 10 YDS
receiving
L.J. Gainey
1 REC, 16 YDS
defense
Louisville
passing
Lamar Jackson
18/26, 249 YDS, 3 TD
rushing
Lamar Jackson
7 CAR, 100 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Corey Reed
4 REC, 94 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Corey Newble pass complete to Jordon Gandy for 5 yds to the MurrS 26

2nd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.10

Jordon Gandy run for 4 yds to the MurrS 30

3rd & 1Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.79

Jordon Gandy run for a loss of 3 yards to the MurrS 27

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Landon Stratton punt for 50 yds, downed at the Lvile 23

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.20

Lamar Jackson pass complete to Reggie Bonnafon for 9 yds to the Lvile 32

2nd & 1Pass Reception+26 ydsPPA +1.72

Lamar Jackson pass complete to Seth Dawkins for 11 yds to the MurrS 43 for a 1ST down MURRAY ST Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the MurrS 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.91

Reggie Bonnafon run for no gain to the MurrS 42

2nd & 10Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +1.52

Lamar Jackson pass complete to Traveon Samuel for 18 yds to the MurrS 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+22 ydsPPA +1.47

Lamar Jackson run for 22 yds to the MurrS 2 for a 1ST down

1st & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +1.21

Lamar Jackson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.28

Corey Newble run for 6 yds to the MurrS 25

2nd & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.44

D.J. Penick run for 2 yds to the MurrS 27

3rd & 2Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +1.08

Corey Newble pass complete to Jensen Feggins for 5 yds to the MurrS 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.51

Corey Newble pass complete to L.J. Gainey for 16 yds to the MurrS 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.90

D.J. Penick run for 1 yd to the MurrS 49

2nd & 9Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.72

D.J. Penick run for a loss of 4 yards to the Lvile 45 for a 1ST down LOUISVILLE Penalty, personal foul (Jonathan Greenard) to the Lvile 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+5 yds

LOUISVILLE Penalty, offside defense (5 Yards) to the Lvile 35

1st & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.05

D.J. Penick run for 4 yds to the Lvile 31

2nd & 1Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA -0.26

Corey Newble pass complete to Jonathan Moss for 12 yds to the Lvile 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.36

Corey Newble pass incomplete to Jonathan Moss, broken up by Stacy Thomas

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.33

Rico McGraw run for 1 yd to the Lvile 18

3rd & 9Rush0 ydsPPA -0.64

Rico McGraw run for no gain to the Lvile 18

4th & 9Field Goal Good+36 ydsPPA -0.06

Gabriel Vicente 36 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.32

Lamar Jackson pass complete to Corey Reed for 9 yds to the Lvile 37

2nd & 1Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.93

Malik Williams run for a loss of 3 yards to the Lvile 34

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Seth Dawkins

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Mason King punt for 45 yds , L.J. Gainey returns for no gain to the MurrS 21 L.J. Gainey fumbled, recovered by Lvile Lamarques Thomas

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.21

Lamar Jackson pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 12 yds to the MurrS 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Passing Touchdown+9 ydsPPA +2.42

Lamar Jackson pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 9 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Corey Newble pass complete to Rajai Perkins for 4 yds to the MurrS 29

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.65

Corey Newble pass incomplete

3rd & 6Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.79

Corey Newble pass complete to Rodney Castille for 8 yds to the MurrS 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.40

Jordon Gandy run for a loss of 2 yards to the MurrS 35

2nd & 12Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.58

Corey Newble run for a loss of 1 yard to the MurrS 34

3rd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.21

Corey Newble pass incomplete to Rico McGraw

4th & 13Punt+21 yds

Landon Stratton punt for 50 yds , Russ Yeast returns for 21 yds to the Lvile 37

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.71

Lamar Jackson run for 7 yds to the Lvile 44

2nd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.28

Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Dez Fitzpatrick, broken up by Silas Owens

3rd & 3Rush+10 ydsPPA +2.08

Lamar Jackson run for 10 yds to the MurrS 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.57

Lamar Jackson pass complete to Seth Dawkins for 11 yds to the MurrS 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.32

Traveon Samuel run for 13 yds to the MurrS 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.40

Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Traveon Samuel

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.16

Malik Williams run for 3 yds to the MurrS 19

3rd & 7Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.79

Lamar Jackson pass complete to Reggie Bonnafon for 10 yds to the MurrS 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Passing Touchdown+9 ydsPPA +2.42

Lamar Jackson pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 9 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

D.J. Penick run for 2 yds to the MurrS 27

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

Corey Newble pass incomplete

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.22

Corey Newble pass incomplete to D.J. Penick

4th & 8Punt+1 yds

Landon Stratton punt for 57 yds , Russ Yeast returns for 1 yd to the Lvile 17

1st & 10Rush+30 ydsPPA +2.44

Lamar Jackson run for 30 yds to the Lvile 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Malik Williams run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.13

Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Corey Reed

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.84

Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Traveon Samuel, broken up by Bishop Woods

4th & 7Rush+24 ydsPPA +3.76

Lamar Jackson run for 24 yds to the MurrS 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +0.40

Lamar Jackson pass complete to Corey Reed for 18 yds to the MurrS 8 for a 1ST down

1st & 8Passing Touchdown+8 ydsPPA +2.32

Lamar Jackson pass complete to Charles Standberry for 8 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.59

Corey Newble pass incomplete to Jordon Gandy

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.28

D.J. Penick run for no gain to the MurrS 21

3rd & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.12

Corey Newble pass complete to Rodney Castille for 7 yds to the MurrS 28

4th & 3Punt-2 yds

Landon Stratton punt for 49 yds , Russ Yeast returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 21

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.54

Malik Williams run for 7 yds to the Lvile 28

2nd & 3Penalty-14 yds

Williams, Mal. rush right for 3 yards to the LOU31 (WADE, Zachary), PENALTY LOU illegal block (Christian, Ger.) 14 yards to the LOU14, NO PLAY.

2nd & 17Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +2.03

Lamar Jackson pass complete to Malik Williams for 6 yds to the Lvile 20 for a 1ST down MURRAY ST Penalty, roughing passer (Quincy Williams) to the Lvile 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.23

Reggie Bonnafon run for 13 yds to the Lvile 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +0.96

Lamar Jackson pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 15 yds to the MurrS 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.59

Lamar Jackson pass complete to Traveon Samuel for 8 yds to the MurrS 29

2nd & 2Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA -0.13

Lamar Jackson pass complete to Micky Crum for 11 yds to the MurrS 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.31

Reggie Bonnafon run for 7 yds to the MurrS 11

2nd & 3Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.23

Lamar Jackson run for 5 yds to the MurrS 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Rushing Touchdown+6 ydsPPA +2.05

Reggie Bonnafon run for 6 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.43

Corey Newble run for 2 yds to the MurrS 26

2nd & 8Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.57

Rico McGraw run for a loss of 2 yards to the MurrS 24

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.15

Corey Newble pass incomplete to Jordon Gandy

4th & 10Punt+1 yds

Landon Stratton punt for 49 yds , Russ Yeast returns for 1 yd to the Lvile 25 LOUISVILLE Penalty, Offensive holding (Colin Wilson) to the Lvile 18

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Reggie Bonnafon

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.23

Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Seth Dawkins

3rd & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.45

Lamar Jackson pass complete to Micky Crum for 11 yds to the Lvile 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.83

Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Dez Fitzpatrick

2nd & 10Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+57 ydsPPA -0.39

Lamar Jackson pass complete to Corey Reed for 57 yds Corey Reed fumbled, forced by Marquez Sanford, recovered by MurrS Zachary Wade

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.41

TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the MurrS 7

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+23 ydsPPA -0.79

TEAM run for no gain TEAM fumbled, recovered by MurrS Jason Johnson , return for 23 yds, (Gabriel Vicente KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +1.61

Jawon Pass pass complete to Charles Standberry for 18 yds to the Lvile 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Jawon Pass run for 5 yds to the Lvile 48

2nd & 5Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.17

Lamar Jackson pass complete to Seth Dawkins for 12 yds to the MurrS 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.27

Malik Williams run for 3 yds to the MurrS 37

2nd & 7Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +0.91

Jawon Pass pass complete to Charles Standberry for 9 yds to the MurrS 28 for a 1ST down MURRAY ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Derrick Shaw) to the MurrS 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

LOUISVILLE Penalty, false start (Geron Christian) to the MurrS 19

1st & 15Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.25

Jawon Pass pass complete to Micky Crum for 8 yds to the MurrS 11

2nd & 7Penalty-10 yds

Williams, Mal. rush right for 1 yard to the MUR10 (SANFORD, Marque;PAIGE, Marico), PENALTY LOU holding (Crum, Mic.) 10 yards to the MUR21, NO PLAY.

2nd & 17Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.31

Jawon Pass pass complete to Charles Standberry for 8 yds to the MurrS 13

3rd & 9Sack-7 ydsPPA -1.72

Jawon Pass sacked by Troy-Wayne Quinn for a loss of 7 yards to the MurrS 20

4th & 16Field Goal Good+37 ydsPPA +0.84

Blanton Creque 37 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Corey Newble pass complete to Jensen Feggins for 5 yds to the MurrS 27

2nd & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.55

Rico McGraw run for 1 yd to the MurrS 28

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

Corey Newble pass incomplete to Jensen Feggins, broken up by Tabarious Peterson

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Landon Stratton punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Lvile 44

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.83

Jawon Pass pass complete to Jordan Davis for 10 yds to the MurrS 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+34 ydsPPA +1.01

Jawon Pass run for 34 yds to the MurrS 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception-2 ydsPPA -0.42

Jawon Pass pass complete to Javonte Bagley for a loss of 2 yards to the MurrS 14

2nd & 12Passing Touchdown+14 ydsPPA +2.95

Jawon Pass pass complete to Javonte Bagley for 14 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.18

D.J. Penick run for a loss of 1 yard to the MurrS 34

2nd & 11Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.34

Corey Newble pass complete to Jonathan Moss for 2 yds to the MurrS 36

3rd & 9Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.16

Corey Newble run for 3 yds to the MurrS 39

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Landon Stratton punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Russ Yeast at the Lvile 16

1st & 10Rush+19 ydsPPA +1.34

Colin Wilson run for 19 yds to the Lvile 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.32

Colin Wilson run for 14 yds to the Lvile 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.13

Jawon Pass pass incomplete to Corey Reed, broken up by Marquez Sanford

2nd & 10Sack-6 ydsPPA -1.80

Jawon Pass sacked by Marico Paige for a loss of 6 yards to the Lvile 43

3rd & 16Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.23

Jawon Pass pass complete to Emonee Spence for 7 yds to the 50 yard line

4th & 9Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA -0.38

Jawon Pass pass complete to Colin Wilson for 7 yds to the MurrS 43

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Brendan Bognar pass incomplete, broken up by G.G. Robinson

2nd & 10Pass Reception-3 ydsPPA -1.20

Brendan Bognar pass complete to Sylvaughn Turner for a loss of 3 yards to the MurrS 40

3rd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.32

Brendan Bognar pass incomplete to Sylvaughn Turner

4th & 13Punt+3 yds

Landon Stratton punt for 34 yds , Russ Yeast returns for 3 yds to the Lvile 29

1st & 10Rush-7 ydsPPA -1.39

Colin Wilson run for 3 yds to the Lvile 32 LOUISVILLE Penalty, Offensive holding (Jordan Davis) to the Lvile 22

1st & 17Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.40

Trey Smith run for 8 yds to the Lvile 30

2nd & 9Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Jawon Pass pass complete to Corey Reed for 5 yds to the Lvile 35

3rd & 4Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA +1.55

Jawon Pass pass complete to Trey Smith for 4 yds to the Lvile 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.67

Trey Smith run for 2 yds to the Lvile 41

2nd & 8Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Trey Smith run for 5 yds to the Lvile 46

3rd & 3Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA +1.60

Jawon Pass pass complete to Dee Smith for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.39

Trey Smith run for 3 yds to the MurrS 47

2nd & 7Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.13

Jawon Pass pass complete to Dee Smith for 9 yds to the MurrS 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.39

Harry Trotter run for 13 yds to the MurrS 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.68

Harry Trotter run for a loss of 2 yards to the MurrS 27

2nd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.72

Jawon Pass pass incomplete, broken up by Tyler Stepney

3rd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.97

Jawon Pass pass incomplete to Emonee Spence

4th & 12Field Goal Good+44 ydsPPA +1.07

Blanton Creque 44 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.14

D.J. Penick run for a loss of 1 yard to the MurrS 33

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.50

Brendan Bognar pass incomplete to Jordon Gandy

3rd & 11Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.11

D.J. Penick run for 6 yds to the MurrS 39

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Landon Stratton punt for 59 yds, downed at the Lvile 2

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.28

Tobias Little run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 1

2nd & 11Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +0.64

Jawon Pass pass complete to Emonee Spence for 14 yds to the Lvile 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Trey Smith run for 5 yds to the Lvile 20

2nd & 5Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.85

Tobias Little run for 10 yds to the Lvile 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+16 ydsPPA +1.51

Tobias Little run for 1 yd to the Lvile 31 for a 1ST down MURRAY ST Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Austin Daulton) to the Lvile 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-6 ydsPPA -2.28

Jawon Pass sacked by Chris Stahl for a loss of 6 yards to the Lvile 40

2nd & 16Rush+15 ydsPPA +2.23

Trey Smith run for 15 yds to the MurrS 45

3rd & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.99

Trey Smith run for 4 yds to the MurrS 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.88

Jawon Pass pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.82

Trey Smith run for 1 yd to the MurrS 40

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.00

Jawon Pass pass incomplete to Corey Reed

4th & 9Rush+10 ydsPPA +3.12

Jawon Pass run for 10 yds to the MurrS 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.22

Trey Smith run for 12 yds to the MurrS 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.35

Jawon Pass run for no gain to the MurrS 18

2nd & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.30

Trey Smith run for 8 yds to the MurrS 10

3rd & 2Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.59

Jawon Pass run for 4 yds to the MurrS 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Trey Smith run for 4 yds to the MurrS 2

2nd & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +2.07

Jawon Pass run for 2 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Nolan Nichols run for 3 yds to the MurrS 28

Situational Analysis

Murray State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
25%
16 plays
2nd
0%
1 play
0%
4 plays
17%
6 plays
0%
3 plays
3rd
50%
2 plays
50%
2 plays
20%
5 plays
33%
3 plays
4th
0%
1 play

Louisville

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
50%
2 plays
61%
44 plays
100%
2 plays
2nd
50%
6 plays
100%
2 plays
50%
12 plays
83%
6 plays
3rd
100%
4 plays
50%
2 plays
40%
5 plays
50%
2 plays
4th
67%
3 plays
100%
2 plays