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← Back to GamesNov 19, 2016Week 12
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Western Michigan by 25.6

Home Win Probability

Western Michigan 96%

No market line posted for this game.

elo_v1 · Nov 19, 2016

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
BuffaloBuffalo
00000
Western MichiganWestern Michigan
014101438

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428427-014-017-024-031-038-0
Western MichiganBuffalo

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20WMBUFWMBUFWMBUFWMBUFWMBUFWMBUFWMBUFBUFWMBUFWMBUFWMBUFWMBUFWMBUFDOWNS752ydPUNT432ydPUNT410ydPUNT515ydPUNT522ydPUNT39ydTO549ydPUNT3-3ydTD969ydPUNT37ydPUNT411ydPUNT38ydTD461ydEND657ydPUNT414ydFG655ydPUNT537ydTD495ydPUNT3-9ydMISS754ydTO444ydTD763ydPUNT527ydTD1190ydEND425yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Buffalo and Western Michigan
StatisticBuffaloWestern Michigan
Passing12-2229-37
Pass Yards140445
Rush Yards128181
Total Yards268626
Turnovers11
3rd Down2-126-12
Penalties4-323-20
Possession25:2434:36

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Buffalo
passing
Grant Rohach
12/22, 140 YDS
rushing
Jordan Johnson
16 CAR, 95 YDS
receiving
Mason Schreck
5 REC, 57 YDS
defense
Western Michigan
passing
Zach Terrell
29/37, 445 YDS, 4 TD
rushing
Jarvion Franklin
17 CAR, 76 YDS
receiving
Corey Davis
13 REC, 173 YDS, 2 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +1.96

Zach Terrell pass complete to Carrington Thompson for 23 yds to the WMich 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Jarvion Franklin run for 4 yds to the WMich 48

2nd & 6Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.52

Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 16 yds to the Buff 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.40

Zach Terrell pass complete to Michael Henry for 7 yds to the Buff 29

2nd & 3Penalty-5 yds

WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Buff 34

2nd & 8Rush0 ydsPPA -0.85

Jarvion Franklin run for no gain to the Buff 34

3rd & 8Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.46

Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 7 yds to the Buff 27

4th & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -3.21

Jarvion Franklin run for no gain to the Buff 27

1st & 10Rush+28 ydsPPA +2.46

Jordan Johnson run for 28 yds to the WMich 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Jamarl Eiland run for 4 yds to the WMich 41

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Grant Rohach pass incomplete

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.06

Grant Rohach pass incomplete

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Kyle Deween punt for 41 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.87

Jarvion Franklin run for 12 yds to the WMich 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)0 ydsPPA -0.93

Zach Terrell pass complete to Michael Henry for no gain Michael Henry fumbled, recovered by WMich Michael Henry , return for no gain to the WMich 30

2nd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.38

Zach Terrell pass incomplete to Corey Davis

3rd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.18

Zach Terrell pass incomplete to Carrington Thompson

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Derrick Mitchell punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Buff 38

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Jordan Johnson run for 4 yds to the Buff 42

2nd & 6Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +2.02

Grant Rohach pass complete to Marcus McGill for 20 yds to the WMich 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

JOHNSON, Jordan rush for 15 yards to the WMU23 (FERGUSON, J;BEAL, Sam), PENALTY UB holding (O'HAGAN, James) 10 yards to the WMU48, NO PLAY.

1st & 20Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.98

Grant Rohach pass incomplete to Marcus McGill

2nd & 20Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Grant Rohach pass complete to Marcus McGill for 1 yd to the WMich 47

3rd & 19Penalty-5 yds

BUFFALO Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Buff 48

3rd & 24Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.01

Grant Rohach run for 5 yds to the WMich 47

4th & 19Punt0 yds

Kyle Deween punt for 47 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.29

Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 6 yds to the WMich 26

2nd & 4Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.85

Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 9 yds to the WMich 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.63

Jarvion Franklin run for 2 yds to the WMich 37

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.77

Zach Terrell pass incomplete to Carrington Thompson, broken up by Boise Ross

3rd & 8Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Zach Terrell pass complete to Michael Henry for 5 yds to the WMich 42

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Derrick Mitchell punt for 36 yds, downed at the Buff 22

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.61

Jordan Johnson run for no gain to the Buff 22

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Jordan Johnson run for 5 yds to the Buff 27

3rd & 5Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Grant Rohach pass complete to Marcus McGill for 4 yds to the Buff 31 BUFFALO Penalty, false start ( Yards) declined

4th & 1Punt+1 yds

Kyle Deween punt for 43 yds , Darius Phillips returns for 1 yd to the WMich 27

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.49

Jarvion Franklin run for 2 yds to the WMich 29

2nd & 8Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.45

Zach Terrell run for 1 yd to the WMich 30

3rd & 7Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +2.50

Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 14 yds to the WMich 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+27 ydsPPA +1.58

Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 27 yds to the Buff 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Opponent)0 ydsPPA -4.21

Fabian Johnson run for no gain to the Buff 24 Fabian Johnson fumbled, forced by Ishmael Hargrove, recovered by Buff Ryan Williamson

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.67

Grant Rohach pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.14

Grant Rohach run for 3 yds to the Buff 27

3rd & 7Sack-6 ydsPPA -0.38

Grant Rohach sacked by Obbie Jackson for a loss of 6 yards to the Buff 21

4th & 13Punt+6 yds

Kyle Deween punt for 50 yds , Darius Phillips returns for 6 yds to the WMich 31 Darius Phillips fumbled, forced by Brandon Williams,

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.38

Jarvion Franklin run for 6 yds to the WMich 37

2nd & 4Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.04

Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 9 yds to the WMich 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.92

Jarvion Franklin run for 1 yd to the WMich 47

2nd & 9Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.34

Zach Terrell pass complete to Michael Henry for 6 yds to the Buff 47

3rd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA +1.42

Zach Terrell run for 4 yds to the Buff 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.39

Jarvion Franklin run for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 45

2nd & 12Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +2.04

Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 20 yds to the Buff 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.14

Jarvion Franklin run for 3 yds to the Buff 22

2nd & 7Passing Touchdown+22 ydsPPA +2.84

Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 22 yds for a TD, (Butch Hampton KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Grant Rohach pass complete to Mason Schreck for 3 yds to the Buff 28

2nd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Jordan Johnson run for 4 yds to the Buff 32

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

Grant Rohach pass incomplete

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Kyle Deween punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Darius Phillips at the WMich 25

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.84

Zach Terrell pass complete to Donnie Ernsberger for 10 yds to the WMich 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.83

Jarvion Franklin run for 1 yd to the WMich 36

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.68

Zach Terrell pass incomplete to Corey Davis Timeout BUFFALO, clock 05:44

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Zach Terrell pass incomplete to Carrington Thompson

4th & 9Punt0 yds

James Coleman punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jamarl Eiland at the Buff 27

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.32

Jordan Johnson run for 3 yds to the Buff 30

2nd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.26

Jordan Johnson run for 3 yds to the Buff 33

3rd & 4Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.32

Grant Rohach pass complete to Kamathi Holsey for 2 yds to the Buff 35

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Kyle Deween punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WMich 39

1st & 10Pass Reception+40 ydsPPA +2.22

Zach Terrell pass complete to Michael Henry for 40 yds to the Buff 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.30

Zach Terrell pass complete to Carrington Thompson for 1 yd to the Buff 20

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.46

Zach Terrell pass incomplete to Corey Davis

3rd & 9Passing Touchdown+20 ydsPPA +3.39

Jarvion Franklin 20 Yd pass from Zach Terrell (Butch Hampton Kick)

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Jordan Johnson run for 5 yds to the Buff 30

2nd & 5Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.86

Grant Rohach run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 29

3rd & 6Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.70

Grant Rohach run for 7 yds to the Buff 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Jordan Johnson run for 5 yds to the Buff 41

2nd & 5Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.28

Johnathan Hawkins run for 10 yds to the WMich 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+31 ydsPPA +1.17

Grant Rohach pass complete to Mason Schreck for 31 yds to the WMich 18 for a 1ST down

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.87

Grant Rohach pass complete to Mason Schreck for 11 yds to the Buff 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.14

Jordan Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 33

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.50

Grant Rohach pass incomplete to Kamathi Holsey

3rd & 11Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Grant Rohach run for 4 yds to the Buff 37

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Kyle Deween punt for 31 yds, downed at the WMich 32

1st & 10Pass Reception+26 ydsPPA +2.22

Zach Terrell pass complete to N/A for 26 yds to the Buff 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+25 ydsPPA +0.72

Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 25 yds to the Buff 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.18

Jarvion Franklin run for 6 yds to the Buff 11

2nd & 4Fumble Recovery (Own)0 ydsPPA -0.40

Zach Terrell run for a loss of 4 yards to the Buff 13 Zach Terrell fumbled, recovered by WMich Zach Terrell , return for no gain to the Buff 13

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.44

Zach Terrell pass incomplete to Corey Davis

4th & 6Field Goal Good+30 ydsPPA -0.60

Butch Hampton 30 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.22

Grant Rohach pass complete to Mason Schreck for 14 yds to the Buff 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+26 ydsPPA +1.88

Grant Rohach pass complete to Jamarl Eiland for 26 yds to the WMich 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)-6 ydsPPA -1.88

Grant Rohach run for a loss of 6 yards to the WMich 41 Grant Rohach fumbled, recovered by Buff Grant Rohach

2nd & 16Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.00

Grant Rohach pass incomplete to Kamathi Holsey

3rd & 16Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.32

Grant Rohach pass complete to Jordan Johnson for 3 yds to the WMich 38 BUFFALO Penalty, illegal block ( Yards) declined

4th & 13Punt0 yds

Kyle Deween punt for 33 yds, downed at the WMich 5

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.12

Jarvion Franklin run for 3 yds to the WMich 8

2nd & 7Penalty+15 yds

TERRELL, Zach pass incomplete to DAVIS, Corey (LEWIS, Cameron), PENALTY UB pass interference (LEWIS, Cameron) 15 yards to the WMU23, 1ST DOWN WMU, NO PLAY.

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.57

Jarvion Franklin run for 7 yds to the WMich 30

2nd & 3Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.39

Davon Tucker run for 5 yds to the WMich 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+65 ydsPPA +5.24

Zach Terrell pass complete to Michael Henry for 65 yds for a TD, (Butch Hampton KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception-2 ydsPPA -0.81

Grant Rohach pass complete to Mason Schreck for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 21

2nd & 12Sack-7 ydsPPA -0.34

Grant Rohach sacked by Robert Spillane for a loss of 7 yards to the Buff 14

3rd & 19Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.03

Grant Rohach pass incomplete

4th & 19Punt0 yds

Kyle Deween punt for 48 yds, downed at the WMich 38

1st & 10Pass Reception+38 ydsPPA +2.27

Zach Terrell pass complete to Donnie Ernsberger for 38 yds to the Buff 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.47

Zach Terrell pass complete to Donnie Ernsberger for 8 yds to the Buff 16

2nd & 2Rush+5 ydsPPA -0.31

Davon Tucker run for 5 yds to the Buff 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)0 ydsPPA -0.29

Zach Terrell run for a loss of 5 yards to the Buff 16 Zach Terrell fumbled, recovered by WMich Zach Terrell , return for no gain to the Buff 16

2nd & 15Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.35

Jarvion Franklin run for 1 yd to the Buff 15

3rd & 14Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.23

Zach Terrell pass complete to N/A for 7 yds to the Buff 8

4th & 7Field Goal Missed+24 yds

Butch Hampton 24 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Jordan Johnson run for 4 yds to the Buff 24

2nd & 6Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.14

Jordan Johnson run for 10 yds to the Buff 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+19 ydsPPA +1.72

Grant Rohach run for 19 yds to the WMich 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+10 yds

ROHACH, Grant pass incomplete to MCGILL, Marcus, PENALTY WMU holding (BEAL, Sam) 10 yards to the WMU37, 1ST DOWN UB, NO PLAY.

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+1 ydsPPA -3.95

Grant Rohach run for no gain to the WMich 37 Grant Rohach fumbled, forced by Keion Adams, recovered by WMich Caleb Bailey , return for 1 yd to the WMich 37

1st & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.44

Zach Terrell pass complete to N/A for 16 yds to the Buff 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+24 ydsPPA +0.95

Jarvion Franklin run for 24 yds to the Buff 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.13

Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 3 yds to the Buff 20

2nd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.14

Davon Tucker run for 3 yds to the Buff 17

3rd & 4Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.41

Jarvion Franklin run for 6 yds to the Buff 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.61

Zach Terrell run for 9 yds to the Buff 2

2nd & 1Penalty-5 yds

WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, false start (Luke Juriga) to the Buff 7

2nd & 6Passing Touchdown+7 ydsPPA +2.54

Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 7 yds for a TD BUFFALO Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined, (Butch Hampton KICK)

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.73

Jordan Johnson run for no gain to the Buff 26

2nd & 10Pass Reception+27 ydsPPA +3.13

Grant Rohach pass complete to Marcus McGill for 27 yds to the WMich 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.28

Grant Rohach run for a loss of 1 yard to the WMich 48

2nd & 11Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.83

Grant Rohach run for 1 yd to the WMich 47

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.80

Grant Rohach pass incomplete

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Kyle Deween punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Darius Phillips at the WMich 10

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.23

Zach Terrell pass complete to N/A for 2 yds to the WMich 12

2nd & 8Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Zach Terrell run for 4 yds to the WMich 16

3rd & 4Rush+27 ydsPPA +2.59

Davon Tucker run for 27 yds to the WMich 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Zach Terrell pass incomplete to Carrington Thompson, broken up by Ryan Williamson

2nd & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.82

Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 8 yds to the Buff 49

3rd & 2Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.38

Davon Tucker run for 5 yds to the Buff 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.71

Fabian Johnson run for 8 yds to the Buff 36

2nd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.20

Fabian Johnson run for 3 yds to the Buff 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.26

Fabian Johnson run for 11 yds to the Buff 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.22

Zach Terrell run for 13 yds to the Buff 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Rushing Touchdown+9 ydsPPA +2.42

F. Johnson run for 9 yds for a TD, (B. Hampton KICK),D. Mitchell kick for 57 yds,J. Hawkins return for 26 yds

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.40

Jordan Johnson run for 3 yds to the Buff 37

2nd & 7Rush0 ydsPPA -0.84

Jordan Johnson run for no gain to the Buff 37

3rd & 7Rush+22 ydsPPA +3.33

Jordan Johnson run for 22 yds to the WMich 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.88

Grant Rohach pass incomplete to Kamathi Holsey

Situational Analysis

Buffalo

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
35%
23 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
60%
5 plays
33%
6 plays
0%
5 plays
3rd
0%
1 play
25%
4 plays
33%
3 plays
25%
4 plays
4th

Western Michigan

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
59%
37 plays
2nd
33%
3 plays
80%
5 plays
30%
10 plays
33%
3 plays
3rd
100%
2 plays
67%
3 plays
80%
5 plays
50%
2 plays
4th
0%
1 play
0%
1 play