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← Back to GamesOct 3, 2015Week 5
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

NC State by 6.4

Home Win Probability

NC State 69%

No market line posted for this game.

elo_v1 · Oct 3, 2015

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
LouisvilleLouisville
7103020
NC StateNC State
076013

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014280-70-147-147-1713-1713-20
NC StateLouisville

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20LOUNSLOUNSLOUNSLOUNSLOUNSLOUNSNSLOUNSLOUNSLOUNSLOUNSLOUNSLOUNSLOUPUNT68ydPUNT39ydPUNT3-9ydTO349ydTD792ydPUNT642ydTD1393ydTD35ydPUNT38ydPUNT431ydFG1072ydDOWNS4-4ydPUNT3-6ydPUNT32ydTD1080ydPUNT415ydPUNT3-1ydPUNT30ydTO318ydFG736ydPUNT921ydPUNT3-10ydPUNT30ydPUNT1037ydDOWNS49ydEND2-3yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Louisville and NC State
StatisticLouisvilleNC State
Passing10-2716-28
Pass Yards103183
Rush Yards20345
Total Yards306228
Turnovers02
3rd Down8-185-16
Penalties6-504-50
Possession33:0426:56

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Louisville
passing
Lamar Jackson
10/27, 103 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Lamar Jackson
19 CAR, 121 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
James Quick
4 REC, 44 YDS
NC State
passing
Jacoby Brissett
16/28, 183 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Matthew Dayes
19 CAR, 68 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Jaylen Samuels
5 REC, 75 YDS, 1 TD

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.89

Lamar Jackson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 23

2nd & 12Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.16

Brandon Radcliff run for 2 yds to the Lvile 25

3rd & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +2.08

Lamar Jackson run for 12 yds to the Lvile 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.24

Lamar Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 36

2nd & 11Sack-3 ydsPPA -0.79

Lamar Jackson sacked by B.J. Hill for a loss of 3 yards to the Lvile 33

3rd & 14Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.18

Lamar Jackson pass incomplete

4th & 14Punt+4 yds

Joshua Appleby punt for 42 yds , Bra'Lon Cherry returns for 4 yds to the NCSt 29

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.53

Matthew Dayes run for 2 yds to the NCSt 31

2nd & 8Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.27

Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Jumichael Ramos for 6 yds to the NCSt 37

3rd & 2Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.60

Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 1 yd to the NCSt 38

4th & 1Punt0 yds

A.J. Cole III punt for 34 yds, downed at the Lvile 28

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.80

Lamar Jackson pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -0.59

Lamar Jackson run for a loss of 4 yards to the Lvile 24

3rd & 14Penalty-5 yds

LOUISVILLE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Lvile 19

3rd & 19Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.04

Lamar Jackson pass incomplete

4th & 19Punt0 yds

Joshua Appleby punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Bra'Lon Cherry at the NCSt 43

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Matthew Dayes run for 5 yds to the NCSt 48

3rd & 5Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+48 ydsPPA -1.45

Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Jumichael Ramos for 48 yds Jumichael Ramos fumbled, forced by Chucky Williams, recovered by Lvile Trumaine Washington

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.21

Brandon Radcliff run for 2 yds to the Lvile 10

2nd & 8Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.73

Lamar Jackson run for 11 yds to the Lvile 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.25

Lamar Jackson pass complete to Devonte Peete for 3 yds to the Lvile 24

2nd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.30

Lamar Jackson run for 2 yds to the Lvile 26

3rd & 5Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.73

Lamar Jackson pass complete to James Quick for 10 yds to the Lvile 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-4 ydsPPA -1.60

Lamar Jackson sacked by Dravious Wright for a loss of 4 yards to the Lvile 32

2nd & 14Rushing Touchdown+68 ydsPPA +6.75

Lamar Jackson run for 68 yds for a TD, (John Wallace KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Johnathan Alston for 6 yds to the NCSt 31

2nd & 4Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.50

Matthew Dayes run for 4 yds to the NCSt 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

LOUISVILLE Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Shaq Wiggins) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +0.94

Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Matthew Dayes for 17 yds to the Lvile 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-6 ydsPPA -1.75

Jacoby Brissett run for a loss of 6 yards to the Lvile 39

2nd & 16Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -1.21

Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Bra'Lon Cherry for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 40

3rd & 17Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.45

Jacoby Brissett pass complete to David J. Grinnage for 7 yds to the Lvile 33

4th & 10Punt0 yds

A.J. Cole III punt for 27 yds, downed at the Lvile 6

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.19

Jeremy Smith run for 6 yds to the Lvile 13

2nd & 4Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.24

Jeremy Smith run for 6 yds to the Lvile 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.08

Jeremy Smith run for 4 yds to the Lvile 23

2nd & 6Penalty-5 yds

LOUISVILLE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Lvile 18

2nd & 11Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.27

Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jamari Staples for 11 yds to the Lvile 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

NC STATE Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Dravious Wright) to the Lvile 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.68

Jeremy Smith run for 2 yds to the Lvile 46

2nd & 8Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Lamar Jackson run for 5 yds to the NCSt 49

3rd & 3Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.87

Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jamari Staples for 11 yds to the NCSt 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.25

Lamar Jackson run for 3 yds to the NCSt 35

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.87

Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Devonte Peete, broken up by Juston Burris

3rd & 7Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.57

Lamar Jackson pass complete to James Quick for 13 yds to the NCSt 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.50

Jeremy Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 23

2nd & 11Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.18

L.J. Scott run for 3 yds to the NCSt 20

3rd & 8Passing Touchdown+20 ydsPPA +3.32

Lamar Jackson pass complete to Devonte Peete for 20 yds for a TD, (John Wallace KICK)

1st & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.55

Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Matthew Dayes, broken up by Trumaine Washington

2nd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.19

Jacoby Brissett run for 2 yds to the Lvile 3

3rd & 3Rushing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +2.62

Matthew Dayes run for 3 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.73

Lamar Jackson pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.71

Lamar Jackson pass complete to James Quick for 9 yds to the Lvile 35

3rd & 1Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.83

Lamar Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 34

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Joshua Appleby punt for 66 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Pass Reception+39 ydsPPA +3.15

Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 39 yds to the Lvile 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.88

Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Matthew Dayes, broken up by Josh Harvey-Clemons

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.82

Matthew Dayes run for 1 yd to the Lvile 40

3rd & 9Pass Reception-4 ydsPPA -1.63

Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Matthew Dayes for a loss of 4 yards to the Lvile 44

4th & 13Penalty-5 yds

NC STATE Penalty, false start (Dravious Wright) to the Lvile 49

4th & 18Punt0 yds

A.J. Cole III punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Lvile 9

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Brandon Radcliff run for 4 yds to the Lvile 13

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

Lamar Jackson pass incomplete

3rd & 6Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.17

Lamar Jackson pass complete to Cole Hikutini for 13 yds to the Lvile 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+16 ydsPPA +1.45

Lamar Jackson run for 16 yds to the Lvile 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

NC STATE Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Mike Rose) to the NCSt 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.69

Brandon Radcliff run for 8 yds to the NCSt 35

2nd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.70

Brandon Radcliff run for 1 yd to the NCSt 34

3rd & 1Penalty+15 yds

NC STATE Penalty, roughing passer (Bradley Chubb) to the NCSt 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.36

Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Traveon Samuel

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.45

Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Cole Hikutini

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Lamar Jackson pass incomplete

4th & 10Field Goal Good+36 ydsPPA +0.11

John Wallace 36 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.53

Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Jaylen Samuels

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.16

Matthew Dayes run for 2 yds to the NCSt 21

3rd & 8Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.19

Matthew Dayes run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSt 19

4th & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA +0.33

Jacoby Brissett run for a loss of 4 yards to the NCSt 15

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.43

Jacoby Brissett run for 2 yds to the NCSt 26

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.45

Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Nyheim Hines

3rd & 8Sack-8 ydsPPA -0.34

Jacoby Brissett sacked by Sheldon Rankins for a loss of 8 yards to the NCSt 18

4th & 16Punt0 yds

A.J. Cole III punt for 43 yds , Jaire Alexander returns for no gain to the Lvile 39

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.11

Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Ja'Quay Savage, broken up by Mike Stevens

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.47

Jeremy Smith run for 2 yds to the Lvile 41

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.52

Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Devonte Peete, broken up by Juston Burris

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Joshua Appleby punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Bra'Lon Cherry at the NCSt 20

1st & 10Rush+28 ydsPPA +2.38

Matthew Dayes run for 28 yds to the NCSt 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 4 yds to the Lvile 48

2nd & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.92

Matthew Dayes run for 1 yd to the Lvile 47

3rd & 5Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +1.84

Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Bra'Lon Cherry for 6 yds to the Lvile 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.46

Matthew Dayes run for 7 yds to the Lvile 34

2nd & 3Rush0 ydsPPA -0.86

Matthew Dayes run for no gain to the Lvile 34

3rd & 3Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.96

Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 10 yds to the Lvile 24 for a 1ST down LOUISVILLE Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.14

Matthew Dayes run for 3 yds to the Lvile 21

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Matthew Dayes

3rd & 7Passing Touchdown+21 ydsPPA +3.29

Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 21 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard PAT MISSED)

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.03

Lamar Jackson pass complete to James Quick for 12 yds to the Lvile 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.87

Lamar Jackson run for 1 yd to the Lvile 38

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.75

Lamar Jackson pass incomplete

3rd & 9Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.26

Lamar Jackson run for 2 yds to the Lvile 40

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Joshua Appleby punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Bra'Lon Cherry at the NCSt 17

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Nyheim Hines

2nd & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -0.33

Matthew Dayes run for a loss of 4 yards to the NCSt 14

3rd & 14Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.02

Reggie Gallaspy II run for 3 yds to the NCSt 17

4th & 11Punt-5 yds

A.J. Cole III punt for 44 yds , Jaire Alexander returns for a loss of 5 yards to the Lvile 34 Jaire Alexander fumbled, forced by Josh Jones, recovered by Lvile Shaq Wiggins

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.99

Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to James Quick

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.57

Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Micky Crum

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.28

Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to James Quick

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Joshua Appleby punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Bra'Lon Cherry at the NCSt 26

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.63

Matthew Dayes run for 7 yds to the NCSt 34

2nd & 3Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.83

Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Matthew Dayes for 9 yds to the NCSt 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+3 ydsPPA -2.53

Matthew Dayes run for 3 yds to the NCSt 45 Matthew Dayes fumbled, recovered by Lvile Chucky Williams

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.00

Jeremy Smith run for no gain to the NCSt 45

2nd & 10Rush+24 ydsPPA +1.84

Lamar Jackson run for 24 yds to the NCSt 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.12

Jeremy Smith run for 11 yds to the NCSt 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.23

Jeremy Smith run for 1 yd to the NCSt 9

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.27

Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Devonte Peete

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.39

Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to James Quick LOUISVILLE Penalty, Offensive pass interference ( Yards) declined

4th & 9Field Goal Good+26 ydsPPA -0.60

John Wallace 26 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.73

Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Johnathan Alston

2nd & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.71

Matthew Dayes run for 9 yds to the NCSt 35

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.08

Jacoby Brissett run for 3 yds to the NCSt 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-6 ydsPPA -1.91

Jacoby Brissett sacked by DeAngelo Brown and Drew Bailey for a loss of 6 yards to the NCSt 32

2nd & 16Rush0 ydsPPA -0.30

Matthew Dayes run for no gain to the NCSt 32

3rd & 16Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +3.75

Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Johnathan Alston for 9 yds to the Lvile 41 for a 1ST down LOUISVILLE Penalty, personal foul (Chucky Williams) to the Lvile 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.42

Jacoby Brissett run for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 46

2nd & 12Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.21

Jacoby Brissett run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 47

3rd & 13Sack-6 ydsPPA -1.10

Jacoby Brissett sacked by James Hearns for a loss of 6 yards to the NCSt 47

4th & 19Punt0 yds

A.J. Cole III punt for 53 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)-5 ydsPPA -0.83

Lamar Jackson run for a loss of 5 yards to the Lvile 15 Lamar Jackson fumbled, recovered by Lvile Lamar Jackson

2nd & 15Sack-6 ydsPPA -0.16

Lamar Jackson sacked by Bradley Chubb for a loss of 6 yards to the Lvile 9

3rd & 21Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.01

Lamar Jackson pass complete to Traveon Samuel for 1 yd to the Lvile 10

4th & 20Punt+13 yds

Joshua Appleby punt for 51 yds , Bra'Lon Cherry returns for 13 yds to the Lvile 48

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.07

Matthew Dayes run for no gain to the Lvile 48

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.05

Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to David J. Grinnage, broken up by Keith Kelsey

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.77

Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Johnathan Alston

4th & 10Punt0 yds

A.J. Cole III punt for 48 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.24

Brandon Radcliff run for 3 yds to the Lvile 23

2nd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.19

Lamar Jackson run for 3 yds to the Lvile 26

3rd & 4Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.20

Brandon Radcliff run for 5 yds to the Lvile 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.05

Brandon Radcliff run for 11 yds to the Lvile 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.36

Brandon Radcliff run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 41

2nd & 11Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.47

Jeremy Smith run for 2 yds to the Lvile 43

3rd & 9Rush+12 ydsPPA +2.91

Reggie Bonnafon run for 12 yds to the NCSt 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Brandon Radcliff run for 5 yds to the NCSt 40

2nd & 5Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.72

Brandon Radcliff run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCSt 43

3rd & 8Rush0 ydsPPA -0.98

Brandon Radcliff run for no gain to the NCSt 43

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Joshua Appleby punt for 39 yds, downed at the NCSt 4

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.28

Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Nyheim Hines

2nd & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.31

Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Nyheim Hines for 9 yds to the NCSt 14

3rd & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Jumichael Ramos

4th & 1Rush0 ydsPPA +0.19

Matthew Dayes run for no gain to the NCSt 14

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.45

TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSt 16

2nd & 12Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.52

TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 17

Situational Analysis

Louisville

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
24%
29 plays
2nd
0%
1 play
33%
3 plays
31%
13 plays
25%
8 plays
3rd
50%
2 plays
100%
3 plays
40%
10 plays
0%
3 plays
4th
50%
2 plays

NC State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
29%
21 plays
2nd
50%
2 plays
33%
3 plays
40%
10 plays
0%
3 plays
3rd
60%
5 plays
50%
2 plays
20%
5 plays
50%
4 plays
4th
100%
1 play
100%
1 play