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← Back to GamesSep 26, 2015Week 4

House Prediction

Model Margin

Louisville by 5

Home Win Probability

Louisville 65%

No market line posted for this game.

elo_v1 · Sep 26, 2015

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Samford
03003
LouisvilleLouisville
21107745

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014284214-021-021-324-331-338-345-3
LouisvilleSamford

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20SAMLOUSAMLOUSAMLOUSAMLOUSAMLOUSAMLOUSAMLOULOUSAMSAMLOUSAMLOUSAMLOUSAMLOUSAMLOUTO212ydTD217ydTO23ydTD780ydPUNT615ydTD475ydPUNT3-4ydTO629ydFG1032ydFG838ydPUNT38ydTD1069ydEND12ydTO865ydTD231ydTO10ydPUNT618ydPUNT34ydPUNT643ydTD1380ydPUNT418ydDOWNS739ydTO24ydPUNT3-12ydDOWNS1263ydEND211yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Samford and Louisville
StatisticSamfordLouisville
Passing17-3018-28
Pass Yards130274
Rush Yards71288
Total Yards201562
Turnovers42
3rd Down3-117-14
Penalties3-159-89
Possession25:5534:05

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Samford
passing
Devlin Hodges
10/21, 79 YDS, 2 INT
rushing
K'rondis Larry
8 CAR, 36 YDS
receiving
Karel Hamilton
5 REC, 51 YDS
Louisville
passing
Lamar Jackson
15/22, 212 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Lamar Jackson
18 CAR, 184 YDS, 2 TD
receiving
James Quick
3 REC, 69 YDS, 1 TD

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

K'rondis Larry run for 2 yds to the Samf 27

2nd & 8Penalty-5 yds

Michael Eubank curl pass complete to Kelvin McKnight for 6 yards to the SAM33 (Harvey-Clemons), PENALTY SAM illegal formation 5 yards to the SAM22, NO PLAY.

2nd & 13Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+20 ydsPPA +0.03

Michael Eubank pass complete to Emmanuel Obajimi for 15 yds Emmanuel Obajimi fumbled, forced by Trumaine Washington, recovered by Lvile Keith Kelsey , return for 20 yds to the Samf 17

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.11

Lamar Jackson run for 3 yds to the Samf 14

2nd & 7Rushing Touchdown+14 ydsPPA +2.69

Lamar Jackson run for 14 yds for a TD, (John Wallace KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Denzel Williams run for 3 yds to the Samf 41

2nd & 7Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -1.62

Michael Eubank pass intercepted Trumaine Washington return for no gain to the Lvile 20

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.29

Reggie Bonnafon run for 6 yds to the Lvile 26

2nd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.29

Reggie Bonnafon run for 3 yds to the Lvile 29

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.78

Jeremy Smith run for 2 yds to the Lvile 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+34 ydsPPA +2.63

Lamar Jackson pass complete to Ja'Quay Savage for 34 yds to the Samf 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +0.38

Lamar Jackson pass complete to Traveon Samuel for 17 yds to the Samf 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Jeremy Smith run for 5 yds to the Samf 13

2nd & 5Rushing Touchdown+13 ydsPPA +2.52

Lamar Jackson run for 13 yds for a TD, (John Wallace KICK)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

K'rondis Larry run for 2 yds to the Samf 27

2nd & 8Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.48

Michael Eubank pass complete to Karel Hamilton for no gain to the Samf 27

3rd & 8Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +2.06

Michael Eubank pass complete to Emmanuel Obajimi for 11 yds to the Samf 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Denzel Williams run for 4 yds to the Samf 42

2nd & 6Sack-6 ydsPPA -1.80

Michael Eubank sacked by Sheldon Rankins and Keith Brown for a loss of 6 yards to the Samf 36

3rd & 12Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Michael Eubank run for 4 yds to the Samf 40

4th & 8Punt+7 yds

Austin Barnard punt for 42 yds , Jaire Alexander returns for 7 yds to the Lvile 25

2nd & 10Rush+73 ydsPPA +5.57

Lamar Jackson run for 73 yds to the Samf 2 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to James Quick

1st & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -0.85

Jeremy Smith run for no gain to the Samf 2

2nd & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +2.07

Brandon Radcliff run for 2 yds for a TD, (John Wallace KICK)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.38

Denzel Williams run for 2 yds to the Samf 23

2nd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.25

Denzel Williams run for 2 yds to the Samf 25

3rd & 6Sack-8 ydsPPA -0.40

Michael Eubank sacked by Sheldon Rankins for a loss of 8 yards to the Samf 17

4th & 14Punt+1 yds

Austin Barnard punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Lvile 36 , Jaire Alexander returns for 1 yd to the Lvile 36

1st & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.38

Lamar Jackson pass complete to Cole Hikutini for 15 yds to the Samf 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.38

Brandon Radcliff run for 3 yds to the Samf 46

2nd & 7Penalty-5 yds

Jackson, L. sideline pass complete to Quick, J. for 39 yards to the SAM7 (Trey Wesley), PENALTY LOU ineligible downfield on pass (Christian, G.) 5 yards to the LOU49, NO PLAY.

2nd & 12Rush+12 ydsPPA +2.18

Lamar Jackson run for 12 yds to the Samf 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.26

Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 3 yds to the Samf 36

2nd & 7Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.69

Brandon Radcliff run for 1 yd to the Samf 35

3rd & 6Pass Interception Return-23 ydsPPA -2.91

Lamar Jackson pass intercepted Shaheed Salmon return for 23 yds to the Lvile 46

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.64

Michael Eubank pass complete to Karel Hamilton for 13 yds to the Lvile 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.64

Michael Eubank pass incomplete to Karel Hamilton

2nd & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +0.93

K'rondis Larry run for 14 yds to the Lvile 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)-11 ydsPPA -1.78

Darius Harvey run for a loss of 11 yards to the Lvile 30 Darius Harvey fumbled,

2nd & 21Sack-2 ydsPPA -1.39

Michael Eubank sacked by DeAngelo Brown for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 32

3rd & 23Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +2.61

Michael Eubank pass complete to K'rondis Larry for 7 yds to the Lvile 25 for a 1ST down LOUISVILLE Penalty, personal foul (Shaq Wiggins) to the Lvile 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

K'rondis Larry rush up middle for no gain to the LOU12 (Reve, J.), PENALTY SAM illegal formation 5 yards to the LOU17, NO PLAY.

1st & 15Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.48

Denzel Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 19

2nd & 17Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.03

Michael Eubank pass complete to Tony Philpot for 5 yds to the Lvile 14

3rd & 12Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.60

Michael Eubank pass complete to Karel Hamilton for no gain to the Lvile 14

4th & 12Field Goal Good+32 ydsPPA -0.08

Anthony Pistelli 32 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.98

Reggie Bonnafon run for 8 yds to the Lvile 37

2nd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.25

Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Keith Towbridge

3rd & 2Rush+26 ydsPPA +2.99

Brandon Radcliff run for 26 yds to the Samf 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +0.46

Reggie Bonnafon pass complete to Keith Towbridge for 19 yds to the Samf 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.19

Brandon Radcliff run for 2 yds to the Samf 16

2nd & 8Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Lamar Jackson run for 5 yds to the Samf 11

3rd & 3Penalty-15 yds

Radcliff, B. rush up middle for 1 yard to the SAM10 (Ahmad Gooden;Jared Holloway), PENALTY LOU illegal block (Klusman, T.C.) 15 yards to the SAM26, NO PLAY.

3rd & 18Sack-7 ydsPPA -2.07

Lamar Jackson sacked by Ahmad Gooden for a loss of 7 yards to the Samf 33

4th & 25Field Goal Good+50 ydsPPA +2.72

John Wallace 50 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Devlin Hodges pass complete to Kelvin McKnight for 4 yds to the Samf 29

2nd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

K'rondis Larry run for 4 yds to the Samf 33

3rd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.60

Devlin Hodges pass incomplete, broken up by Jaire Alexander

4th & 2Punt+16 yds

Austin Barnard punt for 52 yds , Jaire Alexander returns for 16 yds to the Lvile 31

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.36

Corvin Lamb run for 9 yds to the Lvile 40

2nd & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.42

Corvin Lamb run for 1 yd to the Lvile 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.68

Lamar Jackson run for 2 yds to the Lvile 43

2nd & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.39

Lamar Jackson run for 3 yds to the Lvile 46

3rd & 5Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +2.25

Lamar Jackson pass complete to James Quick for 9 yds to the Samf 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.96

Lamar Jackson run for 9 yds to the Samf 36

2nd & 1Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA -0.01

Lamar Jackson pass complete to James Quick for 24 yds to the Samf 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.30

Lamar Jackson run for 7 yds to the Samf 5

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.24

Corvin Lamb run for 2 yds to the Samf 3

3rd & 1Passing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +2.47

Reggie Bonnafon pass complete to Micky Crum for 3 yds for a TD, (John Wallace KICK)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Justin Cooper run for 2 yds to the Samf 27

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.03

Traveon Samuel run for 12 yds to the Lvile 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Lamar Jackson pass complete to Charles Standberry for 6 yds to the Lvile 43

2nd & 4Penalty-6 yds

Jackson, L. deep pass incomplete to Towbridge, K. (James Bradberry), PENALTY LOU ineligible downfield on pass (McNeil, L.) 6 yards to the LOU37, NO PLAY.

2nd & 10Rush+31 ydsPPA +3.24

Lamar Jackson run for 31 yds to the Samf 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.27

Lamar Jackson pass complete to Brandon Radcliff for 13 yds to the Samf 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

LOUISVILLE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Samf 24

1st & 15Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.37

Lamar Jackson pass complete to Ja'Quay Savage for 9 yds to the Samf 15

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.12

Lamar Jackson run for 3 yds to the Samf 12

3rd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.22

Brandon Radcliff run for 2 yds to the Samf 10

4th & 1Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -4.03

Reggie Bonnafon pass intercepted, touchback. Jamerson Blount return for no gain

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

LOUISVILLE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Samf 36

1st & 15Rush0 ydsPPA -0.80

Lamar Jackson run for no gain to the Samf 36

2nd & 15Passing Touchdown+36 ydsPPA +4.27

Lamar Jackson pass complete to James Quick for 36 yds for a TD, (John Wallace KICK)

1st & 10Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -0.61

Devlin Hodges pass intercepted Chucky Williams return for no gain to the Samf 31

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.49

Denzel Williams run for 1 yd to the Samf 22

2nd & 9Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Devlin Hodges pass complete to Devon Schmitt for 4 yds to the Samf 26

3rd & 5Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +1.36

Devlin Hodges pass complete to Karel Hamilton for 6 yds to the Samf 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

K'rondis Larry run for 5 yds to the Samf 37

2nd & 5Penalty-5 yds

SAMFORD Penalty, false start (Darius Harvey) to the Samf 32

2nd & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.42

Devlin Hodges pass complete to Darius Harvey for 7 yds to the Samf 39

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.72

Devlin Hodges pass incomplete to Denzel Williams, broken up by Trumaine Washington

4th & 3Punt+21 yds

Austin Barnard punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Lvile 24 , Jaire Alexander returns for 21 yds to the LOUISVILLE 40 LOUISVILLE Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the Lvile 24

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.67

Lamar Jackson pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.06

L.J. Scott run for 4 yds to the Lvile 28

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Keith Towbridge

4th & 6Punt+52 yds

Joshua Appleby punt for 52 yds , Kelvin McKnight returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Samf 19

1st & 10Pass Reception+32 ydsPPA +2.68

Devlin Hodges pass complete to Karel Hamilton for 32 yds to the Lvile 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.34

Devlin Hodges run for 6 yds to the Lvile 43

2nd & 4Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.37

K'rondis Larry run for 6 yds to the Lvile 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.94

K'rondis Larry run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 38

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.00

Devlin Hodges pass incomplete to Karel Hamilton

3rd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.98

Devlin Hodges pass incomplete to Kelvin McKnight

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Austin Barnard punt for 38 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush+16 ydsPPA +1.24

Reggie Bonnafon run for 16 yds to the Lvile 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.22

Lamar Jackson pass complete to Reggie Bonnafon for 13 yds to the Lvile 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.68

Lamar Jackson pass complete to Cole Hikutini for 10 yds to the Samf 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Lamar Jackson pass complete to Devonte Peete for 5 yds to the Samf 36

2nd & 5Pass Reception-3 ydsPPA -1.56

Lamar Jackson pass complete to Javonte Bagley for a loss of 3 yards to the Samf 39

3rd & 8Fumble Recovery (Own)-1 ydsPPA -1.23

Lamar Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Samf 40 Lamar Jackson fumbled, recovered by Lvile

4th & 9Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +3.33

Lamar Jackson pass complete to Devonte Peete for 21 yds to the Samf 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.36

Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Micky Crum

2nd & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.31

Lamar Jackson run for 8 yds to the Samf 11

3rd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.34

Lamar Jackson run for 3 yds to the Samf 8 for a 1ST down

1st & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.36

Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Charles Standberry

2nd & 8Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.13

Lamar Jackson run for 6 yds to the Samf 2

3rd & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +2.54

L.J. Scott run for 2 yds for a TD, (John Wallace KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +1.52

Devlin Hodges pass complete to Denzel Williams for 2 yds to the Samf 27 for a 1ST down LOUISVILLE Penalty, personal foul (James Hearns) to the Samf 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.93

Devlin Hodges run for 1 yd to the Samf 43

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.90

Devlin Hodges pass incomplete to Karel Hamilton

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.53

Devlin Hodges pass incomplete

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Austin Barnard punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Lvile 9

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.33

Reggie Bonnafon pass incomplete to Javonte Bagley, broken up by Jamerson Blount

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.15

L.J. Scott run for no gain to the Lvile 9

3rd & 10Pass Reception+40 ydsPPA +3.38

Reggie Bonnafon pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 40 yds to the Lvile 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.13

Reggie Bonnafon pass incomplete to Corvin Lamb

2nd & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.60

Corvin Lamb run for a loss of 4 yards to the Lvile 45

3rd & 14Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.46

Reggie Bonnafon run for 8 yds to the Samf 47

4th & 6Rush-5 ydsPPA -0.81

L.J. Scott run for a loss of 5 yards to the Lvile 48

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.13

K'rondis Larry run for 4 yds to the Lvile 44

2nd & 6Pass Interception Return-5 ydsPPA -3.18

Devlin Hodges pass intercepted Jaire Alexander return for 5 yds to the Lvile 47

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.91

L.J. Scott run for 1 yd to the Lvile 48

2nd & 9Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.63

L.J. Scott run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line

3rd & 7Sack-15 ydsPPA -1.70

Reggie Bonnafon sacked by Shaheed Salmon for a loss of 15 yards to the Lvile 35

4th & 22Punt0 yds

Joshua Appleby punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Kelvin McKnight at the Samf 17

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.20

Devlin Hodges run for 3 yds to the Samf 20

2nd & 7Rush+19 ydsPPA +1.89

Denzel Williams run for 19 yds to the Samf 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Devlin Hodges pass complete to Kevin Marion for 6 yds to the Samf 45

2nd & 4Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.91

Devlin Hodges run for 9 yds to the Lvile 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.79

Devlin Hodges pass complete to Kevin Marion for 1 yd to the Lvile 45

2nd & 9Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Devlin Hodges pass complete to Darius Harvey for 5 yds to the Lvile 40

3rd & 4Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.29

Roland Adams run for 5 yds to the Lvile 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.31

Devlin Hodges pass complete to Darius Harvey for 12 yds to the Lvile 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.42

Devlin Hodges pass incomplete to Vaquan Small

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.55

Devlin Hodges pass incomplete to Darius Harvey

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.82

Devlin Hodges pass incomplete to Kevin Marion

4th & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -2.54

Devlin Hodges run for 3 yds to the Lvile 20

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Corvin Lamb run for 4 yds to the Lvile 25

2nd & 6Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.90

Corvin Lamb run for 7 yds to the Lvile 32 for a 1ST down

Situational Analysis

Samford

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
29%
24 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
40%
5 plays
40%
10 plays
50%
4 plays
3rd
0%
2 plays
67%
3 plays
33%
3 plays
25%
4 plays
4th
0%
1 play
0%
1 play

Louisville

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
57%
30 plays
50%
2 plays
2nd
20%
5 plays
40%
5 plays
50%
12 plays
100%
2 plays
3rd
83%
6 plays
33%
3 plays
33%
3 plays
50%
2 plays
4th
0%
1 play
0%
1 play
100%
1 play
100%
1 play