House Prediction
Model Margin
North Dakota State by 17.3
Home Win Probability
Air Force 14%
Market (Bovada)
Air Force +2
fitted_v1 · Sep 12, 2026
Line Movement
Line opened at North Dakota State -2.0 · O/U 47 · Bovada, Sep 12, 1:26 PM
North Dakota State Holds Off Air Force Rally in High-Scoring Week 2
North Dakota State defeated Air Force 38-32 in a competitive Week 2 matchup, with the Bison controlling much of the game before the Falcons mounted a fourth-quarter comeback. The away team covered the 2-point spread and pushed the game over the 48.5-point total.
The Bison dominated the first half, scoring 28 points through two quarters while holding Air Force to 13. North Dakota State's offense, led by quarterback N. Hayes, struck repeatedly through the air, with Hayes connecting on multiple long touchdown passes including a 44-yard score to M. Collins and a 51-yard completion to J. Williams in the second quarter.
Air Force responded with 19 fourth-quarter points to make it competitive, but couldn't complete the comeback. The Falcons' M. Hayes led a scoring drive with a 29-yard touchdown pass to A. Hrynciw in the second quarter.
North Dakota State's N. Hayes led receivers with 8 receptions, while Air Force's Evan Medders completed 47 passes. The game featured significant lead changes, with 14 total swings in win probability throughout the contest.
AI-generated recap · Sep 13, 2026
| Team | 1Q | 2Q | 3Q | 4Q | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 North Dakota State | 7 | 21 | 7 | 3 | 38 |
 Air Force | 0 | 13 | 0 | 19 | 32 |
Scoring Timeline
Drive Chart
Box Score
| Statistic | North Dakota State | Air Force |
|---|---|---|
| Passing | 15-23 | 9-15 |
| Pass Yards | 228 | 179 |
| Rush Yards | 146 | 207 |
| Total Yards | 374 | 386 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 1 |
| 3rd Down | 4-12 | 6-14 |
| Penalties | 5-45 | 6-55 |
| Possession | 29:05 | 30:55 |
Player Leaders
Player Leaders
Play-by-Play
(14:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 D.Scott rush middle for 6 yards gain to the NDSU31 (#8 D.Daley; #48 A.Menard)
(14:28) Shotgun #7 D.Scott rush middle for 6 yards gain to the NDSU37 (#6 B.Fletcher), 1ST DOWN
(13:50) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass incomplete deep left to #18 J.Williams thrown to AF35
(13:45) #7 D.Scott rush right for 1 yard gain to the NDSU38 (#9 M.Mustell)
(13:05) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass incomplete deep right to #15 M.Collins thrown to AF40 broken up by #23 C.Paterson QB hurried by #47 J.Kepler PENALTY AF Targeting (#23 C.Paterson) 15 yards from NDSU38 to AF47, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY
(12:59) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass complete short right to #18 J.Williams caught at AF41, for 2 yards to the AF45 (#8 D.Daley)
PENALTY NDSU False Start (#18 J.Williams) 5 yards from AF45 to AF50. NO PLAY
(12:05) Shotgun #5 M.Mitchell rush middle for 7 yards gain to the AF43 (#6 B.Fletcher)
(11:23) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass complete short right to #7 D.Scott caught at AF37, for 8 yards to the AF35 (#2 K.Johnson), 1ST DOWN
(10:39) Shotgun #5 M.Mitchell rush middle for 4 yards gain to the AF31 (#5 R.Jones; #8 D.Daley)
(10:00) Shotgun #5 M.Mitchell rush left for 31 yards gain to the AF00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:54, 1ST DOWN #37 D.Klein kick attempt good (H: #39 A.Bickerton, LS: #48 C.Anderson)
(09:46) #44 R.Conti rush right for 0 yards to the AF25 (#1 D.Woolen)
(09:11) Shotgun #4 K.Hodges rush middle for 3 yards gain to the AF28 (#3 G.Sell; #1 D.Woolen)
(08:32) Shotgun #9 L.Szarka rush left for 5 yards gain to the AF33 (#8 K.Wilson)
(07:58) #94 W.Duncan punt 67 yards to the NDSU00, Touchback
(07:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass complete short left to #4 N.Punni caught at NDSU22, for 6 yards to the NDSU26 (#6 B.Fletcher)
(07:16) #2 N.Hayes pass incomplete short middle to #84 L.Conklin thrown to NDSU40
(07:12) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass complete short right to #84 L.Conklin caught at NDSU30, for 16 yards to the NDSU42 (#9 M.Mustell; #22 E.Oyamendan), 1ST DOWN
(06:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 D.Scott rush middle for 4 yards gain to the NDSU46 (#95 N.Daniels; #48 A.Menard)
(06:10) Shotgun #7 D.Scott rush middle for 6 yards gain to the AF48 (#30 I.Hubert), 1ST DOWN
(05:32) Shotgun #5 M.Mitchell rush middle for 2 yards gain to the AF46 (#8 D.Daley)
(04:47) #2 N.Hayes pass incomplete short left to #44 L.Kokat thrown to AF45 QB hurried by #45 J.Reese
(04:41) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass complete short right to #5 M.Mitchell caught at NDSU48, for 6 yards to the AF40 (#26 A.Perez)
(04:04) #5 M.Mitchell rush middle for 2 yards gain to the AF38 (#48 A.Menard), 1ST DOWN
(03:27) Shotgun #4 N.Punni rush right for 4 yards gain to the AF34 (#6 B.Fletcher)
PENALTY NDSU False Start (#68 C.Okeson) 5 yards from AF34 to AF39. NO PLAY
(02:22) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass complete short right to #81 R.Kessel caught at AF33, for 12 yards to the AF27 (#5 R.Jones; #8 D.Daley), 1ST DOWN
(01:38) #7 D.Scott rush middle for 1 yard gain to the AF26 (#8 D.Daley)
(00:54) Shotgun #7 D.Scott rush right for 8 yards gain to the AF18 (#6 B.Fletcher; #8 D.Daley)
(00:13) Shotgun #7 D.Scott rush right for 0 yards to the AF18 (#33 B.Bujnoch; #6 B.Fletcher)
(14:58) #2 N.Hayes rush middle for 1 yard gain to the AF17 (#2 K.Johnson), 1ST DOWN
(14:13) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes rush middle for 17 yards gain to the AF00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:08, 1ST DOWN #37 D.Klein kick attempt good (H: #39 A.Bickerton, LS: #48 C.Anderson)
(14:03) #9 L.Szarka rush right for 4 yards gain to the AF29 (#11 M.Stenbroten)
(13:34) #9 L.Szarka rush right for 0 yards to the AF29 (#8 K.Wilson)
(12:58) Shotgun #9 L.Szarka rush right for 3 yards gain to the AF32 (#3 G.Sell)
(12:20) #94 W.Duncan punt 40 yards to the NDSU28 fair catch by #18 J.Williams at NDSU28
(12:14) Shotgun #5 M.Mitchell rush middle for 0 yards to the NDSU28 (#8 D.Daley; #6 B.Fletcher)
(11:29) Shotgun #5 M.Mitchell rush right for 3 yards gain to the NDSU31 (#45 J.Reese)
(10:50) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass incomplete short left to #81 R.Kessel thrown to NDSU42 QB hurried by #8 D.Daley
(10:48) #39 A.Bickerton punt 46 yards to the AF23 fair catch by #3 M.Long at AF23 PENALTY NDSU Illegal Formation 5 yards from AF23 to AF28
(10:44) #2 O.Allen rush middle for 4 yards gain to the AF32 (#3 G.Sell)
(10:11) #9 L.Szarka pass complete deep left to #3 M.Long caught at NDSU45, for 35 yards to the NDSU33 (#29 D.Givance), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN
(09:42) #2 O.Allen rush middle for 5 yards gain to the NDSU28 (#8 K.Wilson; #3 G.Sell)
(09:01) #2 O.Allen rush middle for 4 yards gain to the NDSU24 (#1 D.Woolen)
PENALTY AF False Start (#86 G.Stalfort) 5 yards from NDSU24 to NDSU29. NO PLAY
(08:18) #18 M.Hayes pass complete deep right to #10 A.Hrynciw caught at NDSU03, for 29 yards to the NDSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:14, 1ST DOWN #90 C.Cremascoli kick attempt good (H: #98 R.D'Angelo, LS: #46 J.Helms)
(08:10) No Huddle #2 N.Hayes pass complete short right to #81 R.Kessel caught at NDSU28, for 23 yards to the NDSU48 (#9 M.Mustell), 1ST DOWN
(07:33) Shotgun #7 D.Scott rush right for 1 yard gain to the NDSU49 (#99 J.Oquendo; #6 B.Fletcher)
(06:55) Shotgun #7 D.Scott rush right for 2 yards gain to the AF49 (#95 N.Daniels)
(06:11) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass complete short left to #17 I.St. Romain caught at AF45, for 5 yards to the AF44 (#26 A.Perez)
(05:26) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass complete short middle to #15 M.Collins caught at AF40, for 44 yards to the AF00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:20, 1ST DOWN Timeout North Dakota State, clock 05:28 #37 D.Klein kick attempt good (H: #39 A.Bickerton, LS: #48 C.Anderson)
(05:18) #2 O.Allen rush middle for 4 yards gain to the AF29 (#94 L.Larson)
(04:46) #2 O.Allen rush middle for 7 yards gain to the AF36 (#1 D.Woolen), 1ST DOWN
(04:09) Shotgun #2 O.Allen rush middle for 1 yard gain to the AF37 (#94 L.Larson)
(03:33) Shotgun #9 L.Szarka pass incomplete short right to #44 R.Conti thrown to AF41 QB hurried by #11 M.Stenbroten
(03:31) Shotgun #9 L.Szarka pass intercepted by #3 G.Sell at AF50 #3 G.Sell return 25 yards to the AF25 (#28 G.LaDue)
(03:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #18 J.Williams rush left for 10 yards gain to the AF15 (#6 B.Fletcher), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN
(02:37) Shotgun #5 M.Mitchell rush middle for 7 yards gain to the AF13 (#26 A.Perez; #6 B.Fletcher)
(02:04) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass complete short left to #4 N.Punni caught at AF11, for 2 yards to the AF11 (#6 B.Fletcher), out of bounds
(01:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass intercepted by #6 B.Fletcher at AF05 #6 B.Fletcher return 95 yards to the NDSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:48 Timeout North Dakota State, clock 02:00 #90 C.Cremascoli kick attempt failed ( blocked by #11 M.Stenbroten) (H: #98 R.D'Angelo, LS: #46 J.Helms) recovered by NDSU North Dakota St. at NDSU15, End Of Play
(01:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass complete short right to #5 M.Mitchell caught at NDSU28, for 5 yards to the NDSU40 (#6 B.Fletcher)
(01:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass complete short middle to #81 R.Kessel caught at NDSU47, for 7 yards to the NDSU47 (#8 D.Daley), 1ST DOWN
(01:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 M.Mitchell rush right for 1 yard gain to the NDSU48 (#5 R.Jones)
(00:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass incomplete deep right to #15 M.Collins thrown to AF18
(00:40) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass complete deep left to #18 J.Williams caught at AF07, for 51 yards to the AF01 (#22 E.Oyamendan; #26 A.Perez), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY AF Pass Interference declined
(00:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 M.Mitchell rush middle for 1 yard gain to the AF00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:29 #37 D.Klein kick attempt good (H: #39 A.Bickerton, LS: #48 C.Anderson)
(00:25) Shotgun #2 O.Allen rush middle for 1 yard gain to the AF26 (#94 L.Larson)
(14:58) #2 O.Allen rush right for 2 yards gain to the AF27 (#1 D.Woolen)
(14:25) #9 L.Szarka rush for 5 yards gain to the AF32 (#29 D.Givance; #14 T.Eady)
(13:54) #2 O.Allen rush middle for 5 yards gain to the AF37 (#54 A.Wayne; #94 L.Larson) PENALTY AF Chop Block (#58 T.Tarascio) 15 yards from AF32 to AF17. NO PLAY
(13:32) Shotgun #9 L.Szarka rush right for 2 yards gain to the AF19, out of bounds at AF19
(13:00) #94 W.Duncan punt 60 yards to the NDSU21 #18 J.Williams return 40 yards to the AF39 (#2 K.Johnson; #51 V.Canosa)
(12:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 D.Scott rush middle for 2 yards loss to the AF41 (#30 I.Hubert; #59 C.Barnett)
(12:08) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass complete deep left to #84 L.Conklin caught at AF08, for 41 yards to the AF00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:02, 1ST DOWN #37 D.Klein kick attempt good (H: #39 A.Bickerton, LS: #48 C.Anderson)
(11:55) Shotgun #9 L.Szarka pass complete short middle to #44 J.Bowman caught at AF40, for 21 yards to the AF46 (#52 K.Williams; #54 A.Wayne), 1ST DOWN
(11:23) Shotgun #9 L.Szarka rush middle for 2 yards gain to the AF48 (#8 K.Wilson; #42 A.Elliott)
(10:46) Shotgun #3 M.Long rush right for 2 yards gain to the AF50 (#54 A.Wayne)
(10:10) Shotgun #44 R.Conti rush right for 0 yards to the AF50 (#41 P.Haugo; #6 J.Crumby)
(09:35) Shotgun #9 L.Szarka rush middle for 11 yards gain to the NDSU39 (#14 T.Eady; #41 P.Haugo), 1ST DOWN
(08:52) #2 O.Allen rush middle for 11 yards gain to the NDSU28 (#4 N.Nelson), 1ST DOWN
(08:19) #9 L.Szarka rush middle for 9 yards gain to the NDSU19 (#29 D.Givance)
(07:31) #9 L.Szarka pass complete short right to #29 S.Maiava-Alaimalo caught at NDSU17, for 8 yards to the NDSU11 (#1 D.Woolen; #11 M.Stenbroten), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN
(06:58) #9 L.Szarka rush left for 5 yards gain to the NDSU06 (#1 D.Woolen; #22 H.Artz)
(06:22) #9 L.Szarka sacked for loss of 7 yards to the NDSU13 (#41 P.Haugo)
(05:36) #44 R.Conti rush left for 2 yards gain to the NDSU11, out of bounds at NDSU11
(05:00) #90 C.Cremascoli field goal attempt from 28 yards NO GOOD (H: #98 R.D'Angelo, LS: #46 J.Helms), clock 05:00
(04:56) Shotgun #5 M.Mitchell rush left for 1 yard gain to the NDSU21 (#48 A.Menard)
(04:21) Shotgun #5 M.Mitchell rush left for 3 yards gain to the NDSU24 (#6 B.Fletcher)
(03:32) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass incomplete short right to #3 J.Patterson thrown to NDSU38 broken up by #24 J.Elie-Stuart
(03:25) #39 A.Bickerton punt 49 yards to the AF27
(03:15) #9 L.Szarka pass complete deep middle to #29 S.Maiava-Alaimalo caught at NDSU47, for 26 yards to the NDSU47 (#4 N.Nelson), 1ST DOWN
(02:39) Shotgun #44 R.Conti rush left for 7 yards gain to the NDSU40 (#3 G.Sell)
(01:59) #2 O.Allen rush right for 2 yards gain to the NDSU38 (#41 P.Haugo)
(01:31) #9 L.Szarka rush right for 1 yard gain to the NDSU37 (#1 D.Woolen), 1ST DOWN
(00:56) #9 L.Szarka rush left for 9 yards gain to the NDSU28 (#48 B.Schiltz; #1 D.Woolen)
(00:22) #2 O.Allen rush right for 3 yards gain to the NDSU25 (#1 D.Woolen), 1ST DOWN
(14:57) #2 O.Allen rush middle for 4 yards gain to the NDSU21 (#14 T.Eady)
(14:21) #9 L.Szarka rush right for 5 yards gain to the NDSU16 (#29 D.Givance)
(14:00) #4 K.Hodges rush middle for 3 yards gain to the NDSU13 (#94 L.Larson), 1ST DOWN
(13:36) #9 L.Szarka rush middle for 1 yard gain to the NDSU12 (#41 P.Haugo; #16 M.Moore)
(13:03) #9 L.Szarka rush right for 4 yards gain to the NDSU08 (#14 T.Eady; #94 L.Larson)
(12:23) #4 K.Hodges rush left for 3 yards gain to the NDSU05 (#93 A.Okes; #29 D.Givance)
(11:39) #44 R.Conti rush right for 5 yards gain to the NDSU00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 11:39 PENALTY AF Holding (#3 M.Long) 10 yards from NDSU05 to NDSU15. NO PLAY
(11:32) Shotgun #9 L.Szarka pass complete short left to #80 S.Kibbee caught at NDSU05, for 13 yards to the NDSU02 (#30 J.Archibald), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN
(11:01) #9 L.Szarka rush right for 2 yards gain to the NDSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:59 #9 L.Szarka pass attempt failed
(10:55) Shotgun #4 N.Punni rush middle for 15 yards gain to the NDSU40 (#24 J.Elie-Stuart), 1ST DOWN
(10:14) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes rush right for 1 yard loss to the NDSU39 (#9 M.Mustell)
(09:38) Shotgun #4 N.Punni rush right for 0 yards to the NDSU39 (#6 B.Fletcher; #8 D.Daley)
(08:58) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass incomplete deep middle to #18 J.Williams thrown to AF15 broken up by #26 A.Perez
(08:51) #39 A.Bickerton punt 61 yards to the AF00, Touchback
(08:44) #9 L.Szarka rush middle for 12 yards gain to the AF32 (#14 T.Eady), 1ST DOWN
(08:19) Shotgun #9 L.Szarka pass incomplete short middle to #8 J.Dawson thrown to AF50 QB hurried by #1 D.Woolen
(08:15) Shotgun #9 L.Szarka rush middle for 9 yards gain to the AF41 (#29 D.Givance)
(07:52) Shotgun #2 O.Allen rush right for 8 yards gain to the AF49 (#30 J.Archibald), 1ST DOWN
(07:30) #2 O.Allen rush right for 1 yard gain to the AF50 (#41 P.Haugo)
(07:01) Shotgun #9 L.Szarka pass incomplete deep middle to #10 A.Hrynciw thrown to NDSU17 broken up by #16 M.Moore QB hurried by #94 L.Larson
(06:57) Shotgun #9 L.Szarka pass incomplete deep middle to #29 S.Maiava-Alaimalo thrown to NDSU25
(06:53) Shotgun #9 L.Szarka pass incomplete deep right to #44 J.Bowman thrown to NDSU20 QB hurried by #3 G.Sell PENALTY NDSU Roughing The Passer (#3 G.Sell) 15 yards from AF50 to NDSU35, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY
(06:46) Shotgun #5 E.Medders rush middle for 11 yards gain to the NDSU24 (#14 T.Eady), 1ST DOWN
(06:24) Shotgun #5 E.Medders rush middle for 7 yards gain to the NDSU17 (#29 D.Givance)
(06:02) Shotgun #4 K.Hodges rush right for 9 yards gain to the NDSU08 (#52 K.Williams), 1ST DOWN
(05:26) Shotgun #9 L.Szarka rush left for 4 yards gain to the NDSU04 (#4 N.Nelson)
(04:50) #9 L.Szarka rush left for 2 yards gain to the NDSU02 (#3 G.Sell; #21 N.Taylor)
(04:26) Shotgun #4 K.Hodges rush middle for 2 yards gain to the NDSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:26
(04:02) Shotgun #7 D.Scott rush middle for 1 yard gain to the NDSU50 (#59 C.Barnett; #99 J.Oquendo)
(03:40) Shotgun #5 M.Mitchell rush middle for 3 yards gain to the AF47 (#9 M.Mustell; #99 J.Oquendo)
(02:56) Shotgun #18 J.Williams rush right for 8 yards gain to the AF39 (#5 R.Jones), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN
(02:43) #5 M.Mitchell rush left for 2 yards gain to the AF37 (#22 E.Oyamendan)
(02:39) #5 M.Mitchell rush middle for 1 yard loss to the AF38 (#8 D.Daley)
(02:37) #2 N.Hayes pass complete short right to #81 R.Kessel caught at AF38, for 0 yards to the AF38, out of bounds at AF38
(01:58) #37 D.Klein field goal attempt from 56 yards GOOD (H: #39 A.Bickerton, LS: #48 C.Anderson), clock 01:58
(01:52) Shotgun #5 E.Medders rush left for 0 yards to the AF25 (#8 K.Wilson), out of bounds
(01:48) Shotgun #5 E.Medders pass incomplete short right to #3 M.Long thrown to AF31 broken up by #16 M.Moore
(01:44) Shotgun #5 E.Medders pass complete short left to #10 A.Hrynciw caught at AF38, for 13 yards to the AF38 (#12 D.Voltz), 1ST DOWN
(01:31) Shotgun #5 E.Medders rush right for 5 yards gain to the AF43, out of bounds at AF43
(01:24) Shotgun #5 E.Medders rush right for 4 yards gain to the AF47 (#1 D.Woolen) PENALTY NDSU Targeting (#29 D.Givance) 15 yards from AF47 to NDSU38, 1ST DOWN
(01:14) Shotgun #5 E.Medders rush right for 4 yards gain to the NDSU34, out of bounds at NDSU34
(01:11) Shotgun #5 E.Medders pass complete short middle to #80 S.Kibbee caught at NDSU20, for 14 yards to the NDSU20 (#14 T.Eady), 1ST DOWN
(00:49) Shotgun #5 E.Medders pass complete deep middle to #3 M.Long caught at NDSU00, for 20 yards to the NDSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:50, 1ST DOWN #90 C.Cremascoli kick attempt good (H: #98 R.D'Angelo, LS: #46 J.Helms)
(00:36) Kneel down at NDSU39 for loss of 2 yards
(00:23) Kneel down by North Dakota St. at NDSU38 for loss of 1 yard