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← Back to GamesJan 7, 2025Week 1

House Prediction

Model Margin

Montana State by 1.7

Home Win Probability

Montana State 55%

Market (Bovada)

Montana State -4

Edge: North Dakota State +4 (2.3 pts)

fitted_v1 · Jan 7, 2025

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
North Dakota StateNorth Dakota State
14701435
Montana State
03151432

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428420-73-1410-2118-2825-2825-3532-35
Montana StateNorth Dakota State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20NDSMSNDSMSNDSMSNDSMSMSNDSMSNDSMSNDSMSNDSMSNDSTD1275ydPUNT630ydTD592ydFG1761ydPUNT3-4ydDOWNS718ydTD1056ydEND1-1ydTD1175ydPUNT68ydTD258ydTD875ydTD575ydPUNT39ydPUNT36ydTD966ydTD1073ydUncategorized33yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing North Dakota State and Montana State
StatisticNorth Dakota StateMontana State
Passing19-2313-24
Pass Yards200195
Rush Yards202199
Total Yards402394
Turnovers00
3rd Down8-128-13
Penalties9-582-20
Possession28:4931:01

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

North Dakota State
passing
Cam Miller
19/22, 200 YDS, 2 TD
rushing
Cam Miller
18 CAR, 121 YDS, 2 TD
receiving
Bryce Lance
9 REC, 108 YDS, 1 TD
Montana State
passing
Tommy Mellott
13/24, 195 YDS, 2 TD
rushing
Tommy Mellott
14 CAR, 135 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Ryan Lonergan
1 REC, 53 YDS

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.33

CharMar Brown run for 6 yds to the NDSU 31

2nd & 4Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.89

Cam Miller pass complete to Braylon Henderson for 8 yds to the NDSU 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Cam Miller run for 4 yds to the NDSU 43

2nd & 6Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.67

Cam Miller pass complete to Bryce Lance for 14 yds to the MTST 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.72

Cam Miller run for 1 yd to the MTST 42

2nd & 9Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +1.46

Cam Miller pass complete to RaJa Nelson for 22 yds to the MTST 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

CharMar Brown run for 5 yds to the MTST 15

2nd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

CharMar Brown run for 4 yds to the MTST 11

3rd & 1Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.88

Cam Miller run for 7 yds to the MTST 4 for a 1ST down

1st & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.38

Cam Miller run for 2 yds to the MTST 2

2nd & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -0.48

CharMar Brown run for no gain to the MTST 2

3rd & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +2.54

Cam Miller run for 2 yds for a TD (Griffin Crosa KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Scottre Humphrey run for 3 yds to the MTST 28

2nd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.36

Scottre Humphrey run for 2 yds to the MTST 30

3rd & 5Rush+19 ydsPPA +2.81

Tommy Mellott run for 19 yds to the MTST 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.35

Adam Jones run for 6 yds to the NDSU 45

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Tommy Mellott pass incomplete to Ryan King

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.08

Tommy Mellott pass incomplete to Rohan Jones

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Brendan Hall punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jackson Williams at the NDSU 8

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.13

CharMar Brown run for 3 yds to the NDSU 11

2nd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Cam Miller run for 4 yds to the NDSU 15

3rd & 3Penalty+15 yds

Miller, Cam pass incomplete to Lance, Bryce, PENALTY MONTANAST pass interference (Powdrell, Andrew) 15 yards to the NODAKOTAST30, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NODAKOTAST.

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

North Dakota State Penalty, False Start (Griffin Empey) to the NDSU 25

1st & 15Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.08

CharMar Brown run for 4 yds to the NDSU 29

2nd & 11Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.33

Cam Miller pass complete to RaJa Nelson for 7 yds to the NDSU 36

3rd & 4Rushing Touchdown+64 ydsPPA +6.35

Cam Miller run for 64 yds for a TD (Griffin Crosa KICK)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Adam Jones run for 2 yds to the MTST 27

2nd & 8Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.23

Adam Jones run for 6 yds to the MTST 33

3rd & 2Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.05

Adam Jones run for 2 yds to the MTST 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Tommy Mellott run for 5 yds to the MTST 40

2nd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.42

Scottre Humphrey run for 3 yds to the MTST 43

3rd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.37

Tommy Mellott run for 3 yds to the MTST 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.92

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Rohan Jones for 8 yds to the NDSU 46

2nd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.09

Tommy Mellott run for 3 yds to the NDSU 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.29

Scottre Humphrey run for 6 yds to the NDSU 37

2nd & 4Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Ty McCullouch for 3 yds to the NDSU 34

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.49

Tommy Mellott run for 2 yds to the NDSU 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Adam Jones run for 5 yds to the NDSU 27

2nd & 5Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.16

Adam Jones run for 6 yds to the NDSU 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.19

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Rohan Jones for 6 yds to the NDSU 15

2nd & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.34

Scottre Humphrey run for 1 yd to the NDSU 14

3rd & 3Rush0 ydsPPA -0.45

Tommy Mellott run for no gain to the NDSU 14

4th & 3Field Goal Good+32 yds

Myles Sansted 32 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Barika Kpeenu run for 4 yds to the NDSU 28

2nd & 6Rush-4 ydsPPA -0.89

Cam Miller run for a loss of 4 yards to the NDSU 24

3rd & 10Penalty-12 yds

North Dakota State Penalty, Personal Foul (Grey Zabel) to the NDSU 12

3rd & 22Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.03

Cam Miller pass complete to Joe Stoffel for 8 yds to the NDSU 20

4th & 14Punt0 yds

Kaedin Steindorf punt for 42 yds, downed at the MTST 38

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.03

Tommy Mellott run for 8 yds to the MTST 46

2nd & 2Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.85

Adam Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the MTST 44

3rd & 4Rush+7 ydsPPA +2.00

Tommy Mellott run for 7 yds to the NDSU 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.10

Adam Jones run for no gain to the NDSU 49

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Tommy Mellott pass incomplete to Adam Jones

3rd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Tommy Mellott run for 5 yds to the NDSU 44

4th & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.15

Tommy Mellott pass incomplete to Taco Dowler

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Cam Miller pass incomplete to CharMar Brown

2nd & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.83

Cam Miller run for 8 yds to the MTST 48

3rd & 2Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +1.40

Cam Miller pass complete to Bryce Lance for 6 yds to the MTST 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.47

Cam Miller pass complete to Bryce Lance for 7 yds to the MTST 35

2nd & 3Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.12

Cam Miller pass complete to RaJa Nelson for 10 yds to the MTST 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.14

Cam Miller run for 3 yds to the MTST 22

2nd & 7Penalty-5 yds

North Dakota State Penalty, False Start (Mason Miller) to the MTST 27

2nd & 12Rush+17 ydsPPA +0.87

Cam Miller run for 17 yds to the MTST 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

TEAM pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.35

Cam Miller pass complete to Bryce Lance for 9 yds to the MTST 1

3rd & 1Passing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +2.45

Cam Miller pass complete to Bryce Lance for 1 yd for a TD (Griffin Crosa KICK)

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.99

TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the MTST 29

0th & 10End of Half-1 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.91

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Ty McCullouch for 8 yds to the MTST 33

2nd & 2Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.12

Scottre Humphrey run for 4 yds to the MTST 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Tommy Mellott pass incomplete to Rohan Jones

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.43

Scottre Humphrey run for 2 yds to the MTST 39

3rd & 8Pass Reception+26 ydsPPA +3.57

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Taco Dowler for 26 yds to the NDSU 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Montana State Penalty, False Start (Conner Moore) to the NDSU 40

1st & 15Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.22

Adam Jones run for 6 yds to the NDSU 34

2nd & 9Penalty+5 yds

North Dakota State Penalty, Defensive Offside (Eli Mostaert) to the NDSU 29

2nd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.22

Adam Jones run for 3 yds to the NDSU 26

3rd & 1Pass Reception+25 ydsPPA +2.02

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Ryan King for 25 yds to the NDSU 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.13

Scottre Humphrey run for a loss of 1 yard to the NDSU 2

2nd & 2Penalty+1 yds

Mellott, Tommy pass incomplete to King, Ryan, PENALTY NODAKOTAST holding (Gulley, Marcus) 1 yards to the NODAKOTAST1, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MONTANAST.

1st & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.96

Tommy Mellott pass incomplete to Rohan Jones

2nd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +1.90

Scottre Humphrey run for 1 yd for a TD (Myles Sansted KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

CharMar Brown run for 3 yds to the NDSU 28

2nd & 7Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.24

Cam Miller pass complete to CharMar Brown for 3 yds to the NDSU 31

3rd & 4Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.66

Cam Miller run for 7 yds to the NDSU 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.09

Cam Miller run for no gain to the NDSU 38

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.69

Cam Miller pass incomplete to Bryce Lance

3rd & 10Penalty-5 yds

North Dakota State Penalty, False Start (Mason Miller) to the NDSU 33

3rd & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.16

Cam Miller pass incomplete to RaJa Nelson

4th & 15Punt+12 yds

Kaedin Steindorf punt for 37 yds , Taco Dowler returns for 12 yds to the MTST 42

1st & 10Pass Reception+53 ydsPPA +2.68

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Ryan Lonergan for 53 yds to the NDSU 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Passing Touchdown+5 ydsPPA +1.88

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Rohan Jones for 5 yds for a TD (Tommy Mellott pass to Ryan Lonergan for Two-Point Conversion)

1st & 10Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +1.80

Cam Miller pass complete to Joe Stoffel for 20 yds to the NDSU 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.93

Cam Miller run for 1 yd to the NDSU 46

2nd & 9Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.73

Cam Miller pass complete to Bryce Lance for 9 yds to the MTST 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.51

CharMar Brown run for 7 yds to the MTST 38

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.53

CharMar Brown run for 2 yds to the MTST 36

3rd & 1Penalty-5 yds

North Dakota State Penalty, False Start (Carson Williams) to the MTST 41

3rd & 6Pass Reception+39 ydsPPA +3.42

Cam Miller pass complete to Bryce Lance for 39 yds to the MTST 2 for a 1ST down

1st & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.69

CharMar Brown run for 1 yd to the MTST 1

2nd & 1Passing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +1.90

Cam Miller pass complete to Joe Stoffel for 1 yd for a TD (Griffin Crosa KICK)

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Scottre Humphrey run for 4 yds to the MTST 29

2nd & 6Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.42

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Ty McCullouch for 2 yds to the MTST 31

3rd & 4Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +1.56

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Taco Dowler for 6 yds to the MTST 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +1.64

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Ty McCullouch for 19 yds to the NDSU 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+44 ydsPPA +3.41

Tommy Mellott run for 44 yds for a TD (Myles Sansted KICK)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.63

CharMar Brown run for 2 yds to the NDSU 37

2nd & 8Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.32

Cam Miller pass complete to RaJa Nelson for 6 yds to the NDSU 43

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.76

Cam Miller run for 1 yd to the NDSU 44

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Kaedin Steindorf punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MTST 17

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.31

Scottre Humphrey run for 2 yds to the MTST 19

2nd & 8Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Adam Jones run for 4 yds to the MTST 23

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Tommy Mellott pass incomplete to Rohan Jones

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Brendan Hall punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Jackson Williams at the NDSU 34

1st & 10Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +1.65

Cam Miller pass complete to Bryce Lance for 18 yds to the MTST 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.56

CharMar Brown run for 7 yds to the MTST 41

2nd & 3Rush+16 ydsPPA +0.43

CharMar Brown run for 16 yds to the MTST 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Cam Miller pass complete to Bryce Lance for 5 yds to the MTST 20

2nd & 5Sack-1 ydsPPA -0.60

Cam Miller sacked by Kenneth Eiden IV for a loss of 1 yard to the MTST 21

3rd & 6Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.67

Cam Miller pass complete to RaJa Nelson for 7 yds to the MTST 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.61

CharMar Brown run for 9 yds to the MTST 5

2nd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.47

CharMar Brown run for 2 yds to the MTST 3 for a 1ST down

1st & 3Rushing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +1.46

CharMar Brown run for 3 yds for a TD (Griffin Crosa KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.77

Tommy Mellott pass incomplete to Lonyatta Alexander Jr.

2nd & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +2.14

Tommy Mellott run for 15 yds to the MTST 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.69

Tommy Mellott run for 7 yds to the MTST 49

2nd & 3Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.58

Tommy Mellott run for 9 yds to the NDSU 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.91

Tommy Mellott pass incomplete to Taco Dowler

2nd & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.46

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Adam Jones for 15 yds to the NDSU 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.49

Tommy Mellott pass incomplete to Ty McCullouch

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.67

Tommy Mellott pass incomplete

3rd & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.51

Tommy Mellott run for 8 yds to the NDSU 19

4th & 2Passing Touchdown+19 ydsPPA +3.39

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Taco Dowler for 19 yds for a TD (Myles Sansted KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.42

Cam Miller run for 3 yds to the NDSU 40

2nd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.58

Cam Miller run for 2 yds to the NDSU 42

3rd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

CharMar Brown run for 3 yds to the NDSU 45

4th & 2Penalty-5 yds

North Dakota State Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the NDSU 40

Situational Analysis

North Dakota State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
50%
2 plays
0%
1 play
43%
21 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
67%
6 plays
40%
5 plays
56%
9 plays
100%
2 plays
3rd
80%
5 plays
80%
5 plays
50%
2 plays
4th

Montana State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
2 plays
100%
1 play
55%
22 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
60%
5 plays
14%
7 plays
38%
8 plays
3rd
80%
5 plays
60%
5 plays
100%
3 plays
4th
100%
1 play
0%
1 play