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← Back to GamesDec 31, 2024Week 1

House Prediction

Model Margin

Louisville by 4.7

Home Win Probability

Washington 38%

Market (Bovada)

Washington -1

Edge: Louisville +1 (5.7 pts)

fitted_v1 · Dec 31, 2024

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
LouisvilleLouisville
14714035
WashingtonWashington
71401334

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428420-77-77-1414-1421-2121-2821-3528-3534-35
WashingtonLouisville

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20LOUWASWASLOUWASLOUWASLOUWASLOUWASLOUWASLOUWASWASLOUWASLOUWASLOUWASLOUWASLOUPUNT39ydTD3-2ydPUNT37ydPUNT37ydTD357ydPUNT631ydPUNT35ydTD532ydPUNT622ydDOWNS721ydTD149ydTD779ydTD1075ydPUNT35ydEND1-2ydPUNT733ydTD1087ydPUNT38ydTD262ydPUNT429ydPUNT830ydTD1397ydPUNT35ydTD1162ydEND1-2yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Louisville and Washington
StatisticLouisvilleWashington
Passing16-2526-32
Pass Yards164374
Rush Yards20798
Total Yards371472
Turnovers01
3rd Down6-146-15
Penalties4-434-40
Possession28:2431:36

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Louisville
passing
Harrison Bailey
16/25, 164 YDS, 3 TD
rushing
Isaac Brown
18 CAR, 99 YDS
receiving
Chris Bell
6 REC, 60 YDS
defense
Washington
passing
Demond Williams Jr.
26/32, 374 YDS, 4 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Demond Williams Jr.
20 CAR, 48 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Giles Jackson
11 REC, 161 YDS, 4 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.80

Isaac Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the LOU 24

2nd & 11Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.14

Harrison Bailey pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 6 yds to the LOU 30

3rd & 5Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Harrison Bailey pass complete to Chris Bell for 4 yds to the LOU 34

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Carter Schwartz punt for 44 yds

1st & 15Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.12

Jonah Coleman run for 3 yds to the WASH 20

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Washington Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the WASH 17

2nd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.21

Demond Williams Jr. pass incomplete

3rd & 12Interception Return Touchdown+21 ydsPPA -6.75

Demond Williams Jr. pass intercepted Tahveon Nicholson return for 21 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Jonah Coleman run for 2 yds to the WASH 27

2nd & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.21

Jonah Coleman run for 3 yds to the WASH 30

3rd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.24

Demond Williams Jr. run for 2 yds to the WASH 32

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Jack McCallister punt for 53 yds , Caullin Lacy returns for no gain to the LOU 15

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.44

Harrison Bailey pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.20

Isaac Brown run for 7 yds to the LOU 22

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

Harrison Bailey pass incomplete

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Carter Schwartz punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Denzel Boston at the WASH 43

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Jordan Washington run for 5 yds to the WASH 48

2nd & 5Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.17

Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Keleki Latu for 12 yds to the LOU 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+40 ydsPPA +3.19

Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Giles Jackson for 40 yds for a TD (Grady Gross KICK)

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.12

Harrison Bailey run for 13 yds to the LOU 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.67

Harrison Bailey pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 2 yds to the LOU 40

2nd & 8Rush+14 ydsPPA +2.08

Duke Watson run for 14 yds to the WASH 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.57

Caullin Lacy run for 2 yds to the WASH 44

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.09

Harrison Bailey pass incomplete

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.96

Harrison Bailey pass incomplete

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Carter Schwartz punt for 41 yds, downed at the WASH 3

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Jonah Coleman run for 4 yds to the WASH 7

2nd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.16

Adam Mohammed run for 2 yds to the WASH 9

3rd & 4Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.17

Demond Williams Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the WASH 8

4th & 5Punt+25 yds

Jack McCallister punt for 49 yds , Caullin Lacy returns for 25 yds to the WASH 32

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.32

Isaac Brown run for 2 yds to the WASH 30

2nd & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.23

Isaac Brown run for 3 yds to the WASH 27

3rd & 5Rush+24 ydsPPA +1.96

Isaac Brown run for 24 yds to the WASH 3 for a 1ST down

1st & 3Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.87

Isaac Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the WASH 4

2nd & 4Penalty-5 yds

Louisville Penalty, False Start (Trevonte Sylvester) to the WASH 9

2nd & 9Passing Touchdown+9 ydsPPA +2.74

Harrison Bailey pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 9 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+26 yds

Brock Travelstead kickoff for 62 yds , Jonah Coleman return for 26 yds to the WASH 29

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.66

Demond Williams Jr. run for 7 yds to the WASH 36

2nd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.92

Adam Mohammed run for 1 yd to the WASH 37

3rd & 2Rush+11 ydsPPA +2.03

Demond Williams Jr. run for 11 yds to the WASH 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.14

Demond Williams Jr. run for no gain to the WASH 48

2nd & 10Sack-6 ydsPPA -1.74

Demond Williams Jr. sacked by Ramon Puryear for a loss of 6 yards to the WASH 42

3rd & 16Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.48

Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Keleki Latu for 9 yds to the LOU 49

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Jack McCallister punt for 21 yds

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.80

Harrison Bailey pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Duke Watson run for 5 yds to the LOU 33

3rd & 5Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +1.85

Harrison Bailey pass complete to Chris Bell for 7 yds to the LOU 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Harrison Bailey pass complete to Chris Bell for 5 yds to the LOU 45

2nd & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.95

Isaac Brown run for 1 yd to the LOU 46

3rd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.36

Duke Watson run for 3 yds to the LOU 49

4th & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -1.05

Duke Watson run for no gain to the LOU 49

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+49 ydsPPA +3.76

Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Giles Jackson for 49 yds for a TD (Grady Gross KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+21 yds

Grady Gross kickoff for 65 yds , Chris Bell return for 21 yds to the LOU 21

1st & 10Rush+26 ydsPPA +2.24

Isaac Brown run for 26 yds to the LOU 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.67

Isaac Brown run for 2 yds to the LOU 49

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.08

Harrison Bailey pass incomplete

3rd & 8Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +2.91

Harrison Bailey pass complete to Mark Redman for 17 yds to the WASH 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.21

Duke Watson run for 3 yds to the WASH 31

2nd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.24

Isaac Brown run for 3 yds to the WASH 28

3rd & 4Passing Touchdown+28 ydsPPA +3.38

Harrison Bailey pass complete to Antonio Meeks for 28 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Giles Jackson for 7 yds to the WASH 32

2nd & 3Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.29

Jonah Coleman run for 14 yds to the WASH 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-15 yds

Washington Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (Jeremiah Hunter) to the WASH 31

1st & 25Pass Reception+34 ydsPPA +3.95

Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Decker DeGraaf for 34 yds to the LOU 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.29

Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Giles Jackson for 11 yds to the LOU 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.65

Adam Mohammed run for a loss of 2 yards to the LOU 26

2nd & 12Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.58

Demond Williams Jr. run for 10 yds to the LOU 16

3rd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.21

Jonah Coleman run for 3 yds to the LOU 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Demond Williams Jr. pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.11

Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Denzel Boston for 6 yds to the LOU 7

3rd & 4Rushing Touchdown+7 ydsPPA +2.73

Demond Williams Jr. run for 7 yds for a TD (Grady Gross KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+11 yds

Grady Gross kickoff for 40 yds , Duane Martin return for 11 yds to the LOU 36

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Harrison Bailey pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Duke Watson run for 4 yds to the LOU 40

3rd & 6Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.49

Harrison Bailey pass complete to Duke Watson for 1 yd to the LOU 41

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Carter Schwartz punt for 43 yds , Denzel Boston returns for no gain to the WASH 16

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.57

Jordan Washington run for a loss of 2 yards to the WASH 14

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.03

Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Denzel Boston for 12 yds to the WASH 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.40

Demond Williams Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the WASH 35

2nd & 12Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.82

Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Denzel Boston for 9 yds to the WASH 44

3rd & 3Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +2.15

Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Giles Jackson for 11 yds to the LOU 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.77

Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Giles Jackson for 1 yd to the LOU 44

2nd & 9Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Adam Mohammed run for 4 yds to the LOU 40

3rd & 5Penalty-5 yds

Washington Penalty, False Start (Drew Azzopardi) to the LOU 45

3rd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.35

Demond Williams Jr. run for 3 yds to the LOU 42

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Jack McCallister punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Caullin Lacy at the LOU 13

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.69

Harrison Bailey pass complete to Chris Bell for 13 yds to the LOU 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +1.35

Isaac Brown run for 15 yds to the LOU 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +1.47

Harrison Bailey pass complete to Chris Bell for 19 yds to the WASH 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Isaac Brown run for 5 yds to the WASH 35

2nd & 5Rush0 ydsPPA -0.87

Duke Watson run for no gain to the WASH 35

3rd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Harrison Bailey run for 4 yds to the WASH 31

4th & 1Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.49

Harrison Bailey pass complete to Duane Martin for 11 yds to the WASH 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.29

Duke Watson run for 1 yd to the WASH 19

2nd & 9Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.69

Isaac Brown run for a loss of 2 yards to the WASH 21

3rd & 11Passing Touchdown+21 ydsPPA +3.59

Harrison Bailey pass complete to Nate Kurisky for 21 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK)

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Jonah Coleman run for no gain to the WASH 25

2nd & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.68

Demond Williams Jr. run for 9 yds to the WASH 34

3rd & 1Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.80

Jonah Coleman run for a loss of 1 yard to the WASH 33

4th & 2Punt+7 yds

Jack McCallister punt for 36 yds , Caullin Lacy returns for 7 yds to the LOU 38

1st & 10Rush+54 ydsPPA +2.63

Duke Watson run for 54 yds to the WASH 8 for a 1ST down

1st & 8Rushing Touchdown+8 ydsPPA +2.32

Caullin Lacy run for 8 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+42 ydsPPA +3.17

Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 42 yds to the LOU 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-3 ydsPPA -1.15

Demond Williams Jr. sacked by Thor Griffith for a loss of 3 yards to the LOU 36

2nd & 13Sack-6 ydsPPA -2.16

Demond Williams Jr. sacked by Jordan Guerad for a loss of 6 yards to the LOU 42

3rd & 19Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.23

Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Adam Mohammed for 11 yds to the LOU 31

4th & 8Penalty-15 yds

Washington Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Giles Jackson) to the LOU 46

4th & 23Punt0 yds

Jack McCallister punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Caullin Lacy at the LOU 13

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.42

Isaac Brown run for 7 yds to the LOU 20

2nd & 3Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.07

Isaac Brown run for 3 yds to the LOU 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.27

Isaac Brown run for 3 yds to the LOU 26

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

Harrison Bailey pass incomplete

3rd & 7Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +2.04

Harrison Bailey pass complete to Chris Bell for 12 yds to the LOU 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Harrison Bailey pass complete to Nate Kurisky for 3 yds to the LOU 41

2nd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Isaac Brown run for 4 yds to the LOU 45

3rd & 3Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.17

Isaac Brown run for a loss of 2 yards to the LOU 43

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Carter Schwartz punt for 54 yds, downed at the WASH 3

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.48

Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Audric Harris for 8 yds to the WASH 11

2nd & 2Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Demond Williams Jr. run for 4 yds to the WASH 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.19

Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Giles Jackson for 3 yds to the WASH 18

2nd & 7Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.73

Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Jonah Coleman for 7 yds to the WASH 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Demond Williams Jr. pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.15

Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 3 yds to the WASH 28

3rd & 7Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.79

Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Keleki Latu for 8 yds to the WASH 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Demond Williams Jr. run for 4 yds to the WASH 40

2nd & 6Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.40

Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Giles Jackson for 3 yds to the WASH 43

3rd & 3Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.87

Demond Williams Jr. run for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.11

Adam Mohammed run for no gain to the 50 yard line

2nd & 10Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +2.11

Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Rashid Williams for 19 yds to the LOU 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+31 ydsPPA +2.84

Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Giles Jackson for 31 yds for a TD (Grady Gross KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Harrison Bailey pass complete to Nate Kurisky for 6 yds to the LOU 31

2nd & 4Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.99

Duke Watson run for a loss of 1 yard to the LOU 30

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

Harrison Bailey pass incomplete

4th & 5Punt+13 yds

Carter Schwartz punt for 45 yds , Jeremiah Hunter returns for 13 yds to the WASH 38

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.71

Demond Williams Jr. run for 7 yds to the WASH 45

2nd & 3Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.00

Jonah Coleman run for 14 yds to the LOU 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.88

Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Keleki Latu for no gain to the LOU 41

2nd & 10Pass Reception+33 ydsPPA +1.80

Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 33 yds to the LOU 8 for a 1ST down

1st & 8Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.01

Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Giles Jackson for 4 yds to the LOU 4

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.36

Demond Williams Jr. pass incomplete

3rd & 4Sack-6 ydsPPA -0.82

Demond Williams Jr. sacked by Rene Konga for a loss of 6 yards to the LOU 10

4th & 10Penalty+8 yds

(00:54) WILLIAMS JR., Demond pass to the right incomplete intended for HUNTER, Jeremiah thrown to the LOU0, clock 00:48. PENALTY LOU Pass Interference on MOSBY, Rae'Mon enforced 8 yards to the LOU2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 2Sack-2 ydsPPA -1.12

Demond Williams Jr. sacked by Stanquan Clark and M.J. Griffin for a loss of 2 yards to the LOU 4

2nd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.12

Demond Williams Jr. run for 3 yds to the LOU 1

3rd & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.33

Demond Williams Jr. pass incomplete

4th & 1Passing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +2.79

Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Giles Jackson for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.77

(00:02) [SG] Kneel down by BAILEY, Harrison at LOU20 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.

Situational Analysis

Louisville

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
46%
24 plays
2nd
100%
1 play
0%
3 plays
33%
12 plays
100%
1 play
3rd
0%
2 plays
38%
8 plays
67%
3 plays
100%
1 play
4th
50%
2 plays

Washington

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
41%
27 plays
50%
2 plays
2nd
50%
4 plays
20%
5 plays
56%
9 plays
50%
4 plays
3rd
67%
6 plays
25%
4 plays
50%
2 plays
67%
3 plays
4th
100%
1 play