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← Back to GamesDec 28, 2024Week 1

House Prediction

Model Margin

NC State by 4.6

Home Win Probability

NC State 63%

Market (Bovada)

NC State -7

Edge: East Carolina +7 (2.4 pts)

fitted_v1 · Dec 28, 2024

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
East CarolinaEast Carolina
767626
NC StateNC State
0701421

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014280-70-107-107-2014-2021-2021-26
NC StateEast Carolina

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20NSECNSECNSECNSECNSECNSECNSECNSECNSECNSECDOWNS1050ydTD1075ydMISS1072ydFG1474ydTD1178ydFG1151ydUncategorized00ydTD1275ydPUNT729ydMISS771ydTD972ydPUNT30ydTD360ydTO726ydDOWNS631ydTO20ydPUNT36ydTD386ydTO320ydEND25yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing East Carolina and NC State
StatisticEast CarolinaNC State
Passing18-2919-26
Pass Yards147230
Rush Yards326198
Total Yards473428
Turnovers21
3rd Down12-165-12
Penalties4-304-35
Possession26:3733:23

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

East Carolina
passing
Katin Houser
18/29, 147 YDS, 2 INT
rushing
Rahjai Harris
17 CAR, 220 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Yannick Smith
3 REC, 56 YDS
defense
NC State
passing
CJ Bailey
19/26, 230 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Daylan Smothers
15 CAR, 139 YDS
receiving
Noah Rogers
5 REC, 59 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.03

Hollywood Smothers run for 12 yds to the NCSU 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.16

CJ Bailey pass complete to Noah Rogers for 4 yds to the NCSU 41

2nd & 6Penalty-5 yds

NC State Penalty, False Start (Noah Rogers) to the NCSU 36

2nd & 11Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +2.68

CJ Bailey pass complete to Noah Rogers for 17 yds to the ECU 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.01

CJ Bailey pass complete to Keenan Jackson for 9 yds to the ECU 38

2nd & 1Sack-2 ydsPPA -1.51

CJ Bailey sacked by J.D. Lampley for a loss of 2 yards to the ECU 40

3rd & 3Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.21

Hollywood Smothers run for 7 yds to the ECU 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.97

Hollywood Smothers run for a loss of 2 yards to the ECU 35

2nd & 12Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.84

CJ Bailey pass complete to Keenan Jackson for 10 yds to the ECU 25

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.56

Kendrick Raphael run for 1 yd to the ECU 24

4th & 1Rush-1 ydsPPA -3.41

Hollywood Smothers run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECU 25

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

East Carolina Penalty, False Start (Yannick Smith) to the ECU 20

1st & 15Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +1.96

Katin Houser pass complete to Yannick Smith for 19 yds to the ECU 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.71

Katin Houser pass complete to Yannick Smith for 7 yds to the ECU 46

2nd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.31

Rahjai Harris run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +0.90

Katin Houser pass complete to Anthony Smith for 16 yds to the NCSU 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.83

Rahjai Harris run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSU 35

2nd & 11Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.23

Rahjai Harris run for 6 yds to the NCSU 29

3rd & 5Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.88

Rahjai Harris run for 6 yds to the NCSU 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.13

Katin Houser run for 3 yds to the NCSU 20

2nd & 7Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.35

Katin Houser pass complete to Casey Kelly for 1 yd to the NCSU 19

3rd & 6Rushing Touchdown+19 ydsPPA +3.14

Katin Houser 19 Yd Run (Noah Perez Kick)

3rd & 6Kickoff Return (Offense)+21 yds

Everett Scott kickoff for 64 yds , DK Kaufman return for 21 yds to the NCSU 22 NC State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Isaiah Crowell) to the NCSU 12

1st & 10Rush+18 ydsPPA +1.04

Jordan Waters run for 18 yds to the NCSU 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Jordan Waters run for 5 yds to the NCSU 35

2nd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.58

Jordan Waters run for 2 yds to the NCSU 37

3rd & 3Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.41

CJ Bailey run for 3 yds to the NCSU 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.02

CJ Bailey pass complete to Wesley Grimes for 8 yds to the NCSU 48

2nd & 2Penalty-10 yds

Bailey, CJ pass incomplete to Raphael, Kendrick, PENALTY NCSU holding (Erickson, Val) 10 yards to the NCSU38, NO PLAY.

2nd & 12Rush+44 ydsPPA +3.66

Hollywood Smothers run for 44 yds to the ECU 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.27

Hollywood Smothers run for 1 yd to the ECU 17

2nd & 9Rush-4 ydsPPA -0.89

CJ Bailey run for a loss of 4 yards to the ECU 21

3rd & 13Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.04

CJ Bailey pass complete to Terrell Anderson for 5 yds to the ECU 16

4th & 8Field Goal Missed+34 yds

Kanoah Vinesett 34 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.56

Katin Houser pass complete to Jhari Patterson for no gain to the ECU 20

2nd & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Katin Houser pass complete to Anthony Smith for 4 yds to the ECU 24

3rd & 6Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.94

Katin Houser run for 13 yds to the ECU 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.04

Rahjai Harris run for 8 yds to the ECU 45

2nd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -1.09

Rahjai Harris run for 1 yd to the ECU 46

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.18

Katin Houser run for 3 yds to the ECU 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.78

Katin Houser pass complete to Desirrio Riles for 12 yds to the NCSU 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +0.46

Katin Houser pass complete to Kelan Robinson for 15 yds to the NCSU 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.47

Rahjai Harris run for 8 yds to the NCSU 16

2nd & 2Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.32

Rahjai Harris run for 4 yds to the NCSU 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.30

London Montgomery run for no gain to the NCSU 12

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

Katin Houser pass incomplete to Casey Kelly

3rd & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.11

Katin Houser pass complete to Jhari Patterson for 6 yds to the NCSU 6

4th & 4Field Goal Good+24 yds

Noah Perez 24 Yd Field Goal

4th & 4Kickoff Return (Offense)+17 yds

Everett Scott kickoff for 60 yds , DK Kaufman return for 17 yds to the NCSU 22

1st & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.22

CJ Bailey pass complete to Noah Rogers for 15 yds to the NCSU 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.66

CJ Bailey run for 2 yds to the NCSU 39

2nd & 8Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.78

CJ Bailey pass complete to Wesley Grimes for 10 yds to the NCSU 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +0.91

CJ Bailey pass complete to Noah Rogers for 15 yds to the ECU 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+16 ydsPPA +0.39

Hollywood Smothers run for 16 yds to the ECU 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.62

Hollywood Smothers run for 9 yds to the ECU 11

2nd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.58

Hollywood Smothers run for no gain to the ECU 11

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.15

Hollywood Smothers run for 2 yds to the ECU 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.32

CJ Bailey pass incomplete to Dante Daniels

2nd & 9Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.21

Hollywood Smothers run for 1 yd to the ECU 8

3rd & 8Passing Touchdown+8 ydsPPA +2.95

Dacari Collins 8 Yd pass from CJ Bailey (Kanoah Vinesett Kick)

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.60

London Montgomery run for 7 yds to the ECU 32

2nd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.99

Katin Houser pass incomplete to Anthony Smith, broken up by Bishop Fitzgerald

3rd & 3Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +2.19

Katin Houser pass complete to Jhari Patterson for 13 yds to the ECU 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Katin Houser pass incomplete to Anthony Smith

2nd & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.75

Katin Houser pass complete to Kelan Robinson for 1 yd to the ECU 46

3rd & 9Rush+17 ydsPPA +3.13

Katin Houser run for 17 yds to the NCSU 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.94

London Montgomery run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSU 38

2nd & 11Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.43

Katin Houser pass complete to Jhari Patterson for 7 yds to the NCSU 31

3rd & 4Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.88

Katin Houser pass complete to Jhari Patterson for 7 yds to the NCSU 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.43

Katin Houser pass incomplete to Jhari Patterson

2nd & 10Field Goal Good+42 yds

Noah Perez 42 Yd Field Goal

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

2nd & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+14 yds

Everett Scott kickoff for 48 yds , Coleson Fields return for 14 yds to the NCSU 31

1st & 10Pass Reception-5 ydsPPA -1.07

Katin Houser pass complete to Jhari Patterson for a loss of 5 yards to the ECU 20

2nd & 15Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.07

London Montgomery run for 3 yds to the ECU 23

3rd & 12Pass Reception+30 ydsPPA +3.60

Katin Houser pass complete to Yannick Smith for 30 yds to the NCSU 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.54

Yannick Smith run for 7 yds to the NCSU 40

2nd & 3Fumble Recovery (Own)-3 ydsPPA -1.76

Katin Houser run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCSU 43 Katin Houser fumbled, recovered by ECU Katin Houser

3rd & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Katin Houser run for 5 yds to the NCSU 38

4th & 1Rush+21 ydsPPA +2.17

Rahjai Harris run for 21 yds to the NCSU 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.34

Katin Houser pass incomplete to Anthony Smith

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.30

Katin Houser run for 1 yd to the NCSU 16

3rd & 9Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.53

Katin Houser pass complete to Anthony Smith for 12 yds to the NCSU 4 for a 1ST down

1st & 4Rush0 ydsPPA -0.65

London Montgomery run for no gain to the NCSU 4

2nd & 4Rushing Touchdown+4 ydsPPA +2.33

Katin Houser 4 Yd Run (Noah Perez Kick)

2nd & 0Penalty-5 yds

East Carolina Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the NCSU 8

2nd & 15Kickoff Return (Offense)+29 yds

Everett Scott kickoff for 60 yds , DK Kaufman return for 29 yds to the NCSU 34

1st & 10Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +1.79

CJ Bailey pass complete to Wesley Grimes for 20 yds to the ECU 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.75

CJ Bailey pass complete to Noah Rogers for 8 yds to the ECU 38

2nd & 2Penalty-10 yds

Bailey, CJ rush for 13 yards to the EASTCRLINA25, PENALTY NCSU holding (Smith, Kamen) 10 yards to the EASTCRLINA48, NO PLAY.

2nd & 12Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.54

CJ Bailey run for 7 yds to the ECU 41

3rd & 5Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.59

CJ Bailey run for 8 yds to the ECU 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.80

CJ Bailey run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECU 34

2nd & 11Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.30

CJ Bailey pass complete to Justin Joly for 3 yds to the ECU 31

3rd & 8Sack-6 ydsPPA -2.18

CJ Bailey sacked by Julien Davis for a loss of 6 yards to the ECU 37

4th & 14Punt0 yds

Caden Noonkester punt for 36 yds, downed at the ECU 1

1st & 10Rush+40 ydsPPA +2.33

Rahjai Harris run for 40 yds to the ECU 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+16 ydsPPA +1.31

Katin Houser run for 16 yds to the NCSU 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.54

Rahjai Harris run for 13 yds to the NCSU 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.56

Katin Houser run for no gain to the NCSU 30

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.41

Katin Houser run for 2 yds to the NCSU 28

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.92

Katin Houser pass incomplete to Jhari Patterson

4th & 8Field Goal Missed+46 yds

Noah Perez 46 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.80

CJ Bailey pass incomplete to Jordan Waters

2nd & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.36

CJ Bailey pass complete to Jordan Waters for 7 yds to the NCSU 35

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.60

CJ Bailey pass incomplete to Dacari Collins, broken up by Dameon Wilson

4th & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA +2.04

Sean Brown run for 4 yds to the NCSU 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+38 ydsPPA +2.19

CJ Bailey pass complete to Justin Joly for 23 yds to the ECU 38 for a 1ST down East Carolina Penalty, Roughing Passer (D'Anta Johnson) to the ECU 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.42

Jordan Waters run for no gain to the ECU 23

2nd & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.35

CJ Bailey run for 8 yds to the ECU 15

3rd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

CJ Bailey pass incomplete to Justin Joly

4th & 2Passing Touchdown+15 ydsPPA +3.21

Justin Joly 15 Yd pass from CJ Bailey (Kanoah Vinesett Kick)

4th & 2Kickoff Return (Offense)+21 yds

Collin Smith kickoff for 62 yds , Jhari Patterson return for 21 yds to the ECU 24

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

London Montgomery run for 4 yds to the ECU 28

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.26

London Montgomery run for 3 yds to the ECU 31

3rd & 3Pass Reception-2 ydsPPA -0.61

Katin Houser pass complete to Jhari Patterson for a loss of 2 yards to the ECU 29

4th & 5Penalty-5 yds

East Carolina Penalty, False Start (Kingston McKinstry) to the ECU 24

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Luke Larsen punt for 36 yds, fair catch by DK Kaufman at the NCSU 40

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Hollywood Smothers run for 4 yds to the NCSU 44

2nd & 6Rush+23 ydsPPA +2.02

Hollywood Smothers run for 23 yds to the ECU 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+33 ydsPPA +2.90

Hollywood Smothers 33 Yd pass from CJ Bailey (Kanoah Vinesett Kick)

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Rahjai Harris run for 4 yds to the ECU 29

2nd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Katin Houser run for 4 yds to the ECU 33

3rd & 2Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA +1.25

Katin Houser pass complete to Jhari Patterson for 4 yds to the ECU 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.87

Rahjai Harris run for 1 yd to the ECU 38

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.75

Katin Houser pass incomplete to Yannick Smith

3rd & 9Rush+13 ydsPPA +2.91

Rahjai Harris run for 13 yds to the NCSU 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -3.24

Katin Houser pass intercepted Tamarcus Cooley return for no gain to the NCSU 15

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.37

Hollywood Smothers run for 1 yd to the NCSU 16

2nd & 9Rush+22 ydsPPA +2.04

Hollywood Smothers run for 22 yds to the NCSU 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.67

Kendrick Raphael run for 2 yds to the NCSU 40

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.87

CJ Bailey pass incomplete to Wesley Grimes

3rd & 8Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.20

CJ Bailey run for 6 yds to the NCSU 46 CJ Bailey fumbled, forced by J.D. Lampley, recovered by NCSU

4th & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.72

CJ Bailey pass incomplete to Dante Daniels

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.03

Rahjai Harris run for no gain to the NCSU 46

2nd & 10Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -2.43

Katin Houser pass intercepted Tamarcus Cooley return for no gain to the NCSU 42

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.15

Kendrick Raphael run for no gain to the NCSU 42

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.34

Kendrick Raphael run for 3 yds to the NCSU 45

3rd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.29

CJ Bailey run for 3 yds to the NCSU 48

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Caden Noonkester punt for 38 yds, downed at the ECU 14

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.42

Katin Houser pass incomplete to Anthony Smith

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.19

Katin Houser pass incomplete to Kelan Robinson

3rd & 10Rushing Touchdown+86 ydsPPA +7.27

Rahjai Harris 86 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)

3rd & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+22 yds

Everett Scott kickoff for 45 yds , Coleson Fields return for 22 yds to the NCSU 42

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.95

CJ Bailey pass complete to Dacari Collins for 11 yds to the ECU 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.01

CJ Bailey pass complete to Hollywood Smothers for 9 yds to the ECU 38

2nd & 1Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -4.40

CJ Bailey pass intercepted Dontavius Nash return for no gain to the ECU 29

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.37

Rahjai Harris run for 6 yds to the ECU 35

2nd & 4Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.15

TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECU 34

Situational Analysis

East Carolina

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
43%
28 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
20%
5 plays
25%
4 plays
0%
9 plays
67%
3 plays
3rd
75%
4 plays
100%
5 plays
83%
6 plays
100%
1 play
4th
100%
1 play

NC State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
56%
27 plays
2nd
0%
3 plays
50%
2 plays
50%
8 plays
80%
5 plays
3rd
50%
6 plays
100%
1 play
50%
4 plays
100%
1 play
4th
50%
4 plays