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← Back to GamesOct 26, 2024Week 9
BuffaloBuffalo
16
-Final
47
OhioOhio
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Ohio by 8.2

Home Win Probability

Ohio 69%

Market (Bovada)

Ohio -4

Edge: Ohio -4 (4.2 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 26, 2024

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
BuffaloBuffalo
0106016
OhioOhio
32191447

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q40142842563-03-710-717-724-1031-1640-16
OhioBuffalo

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20BUFOHIBUFOHIBUFOHIBUFOHIBUFOHIBUFOHIBUFOHIBUFOHIBUFOHIBUFBUFOHIBUFPUNT621ydTO521ydMISS1050ydFG1165ydTD875ydTD980ydPUNT37ydTD273ydFG753ydTD775ydEND4-14ydPUNT33ydTO750ydTD680ydTD1175ydPUNT3-3ydDOWNS47ydTD657ydTO20ydDOWNS829ydDOWNS933ydEND410yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Buffalo and Ohio
StatisticBuffaloOhio
Passing24-3914-19
Pass Yards257231
Rush Yards126258
Total Yards383489
Turnovers21
3rd Down9-167-12
Penalties2-201-5
Possession29:2930:31

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Buffalo
passing
CJ Ogbonna
24/39, 257 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Al-Jay Henderson
14 CAR, 81 YDS
receiving
Victor Snow
5 REC, 75 YDS, 1 TD
defense
Ohio
passing
Parker Navarro
14/19, 231 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Rickey Hunt
9 CAR, 89 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Coleman Owen
6 REC, 146 YDS, 2 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

C.J. Ogbonna pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

C.J. Ogbonna pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +2.47

C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Chance Morrow for 16 yds to the BUF 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.68

Al-Jay Henderson run for 2 yds to the BUF 43

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.96

C.J. Ogbonna pass incomplete

3rd & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.25

C.J. Ogbonna run for 3 yds to the BUF 46

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Ethan Duane punt for 19 yds

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Rickey Hunt Jr. run for 3 yds to the OHIO 38

2nd & 7Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +1.37

Parker Navarro pass complete to Chase Hendricks for 7 yds to the OHIO 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Parker Navarro pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +2.03

Rickey Hunt Jr. run for 11 yds to the BUF 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.25

Terrance Shelton Jr. run for 3 yds to the BUF 24

2nd & 7Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.97

Terrance Shelton Jr. run for 7 yds to the BUF 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.37

C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Messiah Burch for 3 yds to the BUF 34

2nd & 7Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +2.29

C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Al-Jay Henderson for 18 yds to the OHIO 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.04

Al-Jay Henderson run for 9 yds to the OHIO 39

2nd & 1Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.36

C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to JJ Jenkins for 3 yds to the OHIO 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.72

C.J. Ogbonna pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.24

C.J. Ogbonna run for 6 yds to the OHIO 30

3rd & 4Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.69

C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Jacqez Barksdale for 1 yd to the OHIO 29

4th & 3Field Goal Missed+47 yds

Upton Bellenfant 47 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.34

Parker Navarro run for 3 yds to the OHIO 32

2nd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.44

Parker Navarro run for 2 yds to the OHIO 34

3rd & 5Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +2.28

Parker Navarro pass complete to Coleman Owen for 11 yds to the OHIO 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +1.43

Parker Navarro pass complete to Coleman Owen for 24 yds to the BUF 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Rickey Hunt Jr. run for 5 yds to the BUF 26

2nd & 5Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Parker Navarro pass complete to Eamonn Dennis for 4 yds to the BUF 22

3rd & 1Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.28

Rickey Hunt Jr. run for 9 yds to the BUF 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Parker Navarro run for 3 yds to the BUF 10

2nd & 7Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Parker Navarro pass complete to Chase Hendricks for 4 yds to the BUF 6

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.32

Parker Navarro pass incomplete

4th & 3Field Goal Good+23 yds

Gianni Spetic 23 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.84

C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Tadd Barr for 10 yds to the BUF 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Al-Jay Henderson run for 5 yds to the BUF 40

2nd & 5Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.63

Al-Jay Henderson run for a loss of 4 yards to the BUF 36

3rd & 9Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +3.15

C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Qua Sanders for 17 yds to the OHIO 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.01

C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Tadd Barr for 9 yds to the OHIO 38

2nd & 1Fumble Recovery (Own)-1 ydsPPA -1.27

C.J. Ogbonna run for a loss of 1 yard to the OHIO 39 C.J. Ogbonna fumbled, recovered by BUF C.J. Ogbonna C. Ogbonna return for 0 yds

3rd & 2Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.13

C.J. Ogbonna run for 12 yds to the OHIO 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+27 ydsPPA +2.74

Messiah Burch run for 27 yds for a TD (Upton Bellenfant KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+20 yds

Upton Bellenfant kickoff for 65 yds , Eamonn Dennis return for 20 yds to the OHIO 20

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.29

Nolan McCormick run for 6 yds to the OHIO 26

2nd & 4Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.46

Parker Navarro pass complete to Nolan McCormick for 2 yds to the OHIO 28

3rd & 2Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.13

Nolan McCormick run for 5 yds to the OHIO 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.70

Parker Navarro run for 7 yds to the OHIO 40

2nd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -1.00

Nolan McCormick run for 1 yd to the OHIO 41

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.70

Nolan McCormick run for 1 yd to the OHIO 42

4th & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +1.97

Rickey Hunt Jr. run for 1 yd to the OHIO 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.92

Parker Navarro pass complete to Chase Hendricks for 11 yds to the BUF 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+46 ydsPPA +3.54

Rickey Hunt Jr. run for 46 yds for a TD (Gianni Spetic KICK)

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Lamar Sperling run for no gain to the BUF 25

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

C.J. Ogbonna pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.15

C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Taji Johnson for 7 yds to the BUF 32

4th & 3Punt+5 yds

Ethan Duane punt for 46 yds , Coleman Owen returns for 5 yds to the OHIO 27

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.95

Parker Navarro run for 8 yds to the OHIO 35

2nd & 2Passing Touchdown+65 ydsPPA +4.98

Parker Navarro pass complete to Coleman Owen for 65 yds for a TD (Gianni Spetic KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +1.52

C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Victor Snow for 17 yds to the BUF 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.87

C.J. Ogbonna run for a loss of 4 yards to the BUF 38

2nd & 14Pass Reception+33 ydsPPA +3.64

C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to JJ Jenkins for 33 yds to the OHIO 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.53

C.J. Ogbonna pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Al-Jay Henderson run for 5 yds to the OHIO 24

3rd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.39

C.J. Ogbonna run for 2 yds to the OHIO 22

4th & 3Field Goal Good+40 yds

Upton Bellenfant 40 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Nolan McCormick run for 3 yds to the OHIO 28

2nd & 7Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.47

Parker Navarro run for 1 yd to the OHIO 29

3rd & 6Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +3.08

Parker Navarro pass complete to Coleman Owen for 22 yds to the BUF 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Rickey Hunt Jr. run for 4 yds to the BUF 45

2nd & 6Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.93

Parker Navarro run for 10 yds to the BUF 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+22 ydsPPA +0.43

Parker Navarro run for 22 yds to the BUF 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+13 ydsPPA +2.54

Parker Navarro pass complete to Coleman Owen for 13 yds for a TD (Gianni Spetic KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+14 yds

Gianni Spetic kickoff for 48 yds , Terrance Shelton Jr. return for 14 yds to the BUF 31

1st & 10Sack-7 ydsPPA -1.52

C.J. Ogbonna sacked by Bradley Weaver for a loss of 7 yards to the BUF 24

2nd & 17Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.16

C.J. Ogbonna pass incomplete

3rd & 17Penalty-15 yds

Buffalo Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (-15 Yards) to the BUF 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-9 ydsPPA -1.26

C.J. Ogbonna sacked by Marcel Walker-Burgess for a loss of 9 yards to the BUF 17

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Parker Navarro run for 1 yd to the OHIO 26

2nd & 9Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.34

Rickey Hunt Jr. run for 1 yd to the OHIO 27

3rd & 8Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.19

Parker Navarro pass complete to Chase Hendricks for 1 yd to the OHIO 28

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Jack Wilson punt for 42 yds, downed at the BUF 30

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.10

Al-Jay Henderson run for a loss of 2 yards to the BUF 28

2nd & 12Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.06

Al-Jay Henderson run for 11 yds to the BUF 39

3rd & 1Penalty-5 yds

Buffalo Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the BUF 34

3rd & 6Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +2.17

C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Victor Snow for 9 yds to the BUF 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+25 ydsPPA +1.59

C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Victor Snow for 25 yds to the OHIO 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.22

C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Al-Jay Henderson for 6 yds to the OHIO 26

2nd & 4Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.09

Al-Jay Henderson run for 11 yds to the OHIO 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-5 ydsPPA -0.71

C.J. Ogbonna sacked for a loss of 5 yards to the OHIO 20 C.J. Ogbonna fumbled, recovered by OHIO Bralen Henderson , return for 0 yards

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.78

Parker Navarro pass complete to Coleman Owen for 11 yds to the OHIO 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.38

Nolan McCormick run for 6 yds to the OHIO 37

2nd & 4Pass Reception+52 ydsPPA +2.71

Parker Navarro pass complete to Rodney Harris II for 52 yds to the BUF 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.30

Nolan McCormick run for 7 yds to the BUF 4

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.24

Nolan McCormick run for 2 yds to the BUF 2

3rd & 1Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +2.46

Nolan McCormick run for 2 yds for a TD (Gianni Spetic KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.42

C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to JJ Jenkins for 16 yds to the BUF 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.14

C.J. Ogbonna pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Al-Jay Henderson run for 5 yds to the BUF 46

3rd & 5Rush+10 ydsPPA +2.32

Al-Jay Henderson run for 10 yds to the OHIO 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.97

C.J. Ogbonna pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.39

C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Victor Snow for 3 yds to the OHIO 41

3rd & 7Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.87

C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Chance Morrow for 8 yds to the OHIO 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.08

C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to JJ Jenkins for 5 yds to the OHIO 28

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.66

C.J. Ogbonna pass incomplete

3rd & 5Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.85

C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Jake Orlando for 7 yds to the OHIO 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+21 ydsPPA +2.63

Victor Snow 21 Yd pass from C.J. Ogbonna (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Parker Navarro pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.43

Parker Navarro run for a loss of 2 yards to the OHIO 23

3rd & 12Penalty-5 yds

Ohio Penalty, Delay Of Game (-5 Yards) to the OHIO 18

3rd & 17Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.01

Parker Navarro pass complete to Eian Pugh for 4 yds to the OHIO 22

4th & 13Punt0 yds

Jack Wilson punt for 28 yds, downed at the 50 yard line

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.11

C.J. Ogbonna pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.62

Al-Jay Henderson run for 2 yds to the OHIO 48

3rd & 8Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.06

C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Javien Cuff for 5 yds to the OHIO 43

4th & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.49

C.J. Ogbonna pass incomplete

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.16

Parker Navarro run for no gain to the OHIO 43

2nd & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.10

Rickey Hunt Jr. run for 9 yds to the BUF 48

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.98

Parker Navarro run for 2 yds to the BUF 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.03

Parker Navarro pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+24 ydsPPA +1.92

Parker Navarro run for 24 yds to the BUF 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+22 ydsPPA +2.65

Coleman Owen 22 Yd Run (Gianni Spetic Kick)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

C.J. Ogbonna pass incomplete

1st & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.70

C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Al-Jay Henderson for no gain to the BUF 25

2nd & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.48

Al-Jay Henderson run for 8 yds to the BUF 33

3rd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.15

C.J. Ogbonna run for 3 yds to the BUF 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+16 ydsPPA +1.46

Al-Jay Henderson run for 16 yds to the OHIO 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-2 ydsPPA -1.54

C.J. Ogbonna sacked by Shay Taylor for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard line

2nd & 12Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.38

Al-Jay Henderson run for 3 yds to the OHIO 47

3rd & 9Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.69

C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Lamar Sperling for 1 yd to the OHIO 46

4th & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

C.J. Ogbonna pass incomplete

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.42

Nolan McCormick run for 3 yds to the OHIO 49

2nd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.67

Nolan McCormick run for 2 yds to the BUF 49

3rd & 5Rush+10 ydsPPA +2.13

Nick Poulos run for 10 yds to the BUF 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.44

Duncan Brune run for 2 yds to the BUF 37

2nd & 8Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.81

Nick Poulos run for 9 yds to the BUF 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.51

Duncan Brune run for no gain to the BUF 28

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Duncan Brune run for no gain to the BUF 28

3rd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Duncan Brune run for 5 yds to the BUF 23

4th & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -3.07

Nick Poulos run for 2 yds to the BUF 21

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.38

Lamar Sperling run for 2 yds to the BUF 23

2nd & 8Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.20

Lamar Sperling run for 6 yds to the BUF 29

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.42

Mark-Anthony Scott Jr. run for 1 yd to the BUF 30

4th & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +1.32

Mark-Anthony Scott Jr. run for 1 yd to the BUF 31 for a 1ST down

Situational Analysis

Buffalo

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
39%
31 plays
2nd
0%
2 plays
33%
3 plays
58%
12 plays
50%
4 plays
3rd
67%
3 plays
60%
5 plays
71%
7 plays
4th
50%
2 plays
0%
1 play

Ohio

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
50%
26 plays
2nd
33%
3 plays
50%
4 plays
42%
12 plays
3rd
67%
6 plays
100%
3 plays
50%
2 plays
0%
1 play
4th
100%
1 play
0%
1 play