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← Back to GamesAug 29, 2024Week 1

House Prediction

Model Margin

Lafayette by 8.6

Home Win Probability

Buffalo 25%

Market (ESPN Bet)

Buffalo -3.5

Edge: Lafayette +3.5 (12.1 pts)

fitted_v1 · Aug 29, 2024

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Lafayette
006713
BuffaloBuffalo
1337730

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q40142813-016-016-623-630-13
BuffaloLafayette

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20BUFLAFBUFLAFBUFLAFBUFLAFBUFLAFBUFLAFLAFBUFBUFLAFBUFLAFBUFBUFLAFLAFBUFLAFLAFBUFPUNT37ydTO518ydTD1060ydPUNT615ydTD548ydPUNT39ydPUNT33ydPUNT3-10ydFG849ydDOWNS1168ydPUNT831ydTD218ydPUNT610ydPUNT3-3ydPUNT31ydPUNT3-1ydTD875ydDOWNS948ydMISS939ydTD119ydTD1166ydMISS44ydPUNT615ydTO210ydPUNT35ydUncategorized729yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Lafayette and Buffalo
StatisticLafayetteBuffalo
Passing24-3514-24
Pass Yards180195
Rush Yards43208
Total Yards223403
Turnovers21
3rd Down5-165-13
Penalties3-257-70
Possession28:4731:13

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Lafayette
passing
Dean DeNobile
23/33, 162 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
rushing
Troy Bruce
4 CAR, 29 YDS
receiving
Chris Carasia
8 REC, 83 YDS, 1 TD
defense
Buffalo
passing
CJ Ogbonna
14/24, 195 YDS, 2 TD
rushing
Jacqez Barksdale
14 CAR, 99 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Nik McMillan
5 REC, 76 YDS, 1 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.60

C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Nik McMillan for 7 yds to the BUF 32

2nd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.99

C.J. Ogbonna pass incomplete, broken up by Tyree Morris

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

pass incomplete to Nik McMillan

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Ethan Duane punt for 28 yds

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.91

Jamar Curtis run for 1 yd to the LAF 41

2nd & 9Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +2.06

Dean DeNobile pass complete to Chris Carasia for 12 yds to the BUF 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.82

Jamar Curtis run for 1 yd to the BUF 46

2nd & 9Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Dean DeNobile pass complete to Dallas Holmes for 4 yds to the BUF 42

3rd & 5Interception0 ydsPPA -2.41

Dean DeNobile pass intercepted

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.65

Al-Jay Henderson run for a loss of 3 yards to the BUF 37

2nd & 13Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +2.93

C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Nik McMillan for 18 yds to the LAF 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Al-Jay Henderson run for 5 yds to the LAF 40

2nd & 5Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.41

Al-Jay Henderson run for 5 yds to the LAF 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.39

C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Taji Johnson for 7 yds to the LAF 28

2nd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.10

Al-Jay Henderson run for 4 yds to the LAF 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.43

pass incomplete to Nik McMillan

2nd & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.59

C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to JJ Jenkins for 13 yds to the LAF 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+11 ydsPPA +2.52

Al-Jay Henderson 11 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)

1st & 10Rush-62 yds

Orlando,Jake rush (Thomas,Reggie).

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Jamar Curtis run for 2 yds to the LAF 27

2nd & 8Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.23

Dean DeNobile pass complete to Jamar Curtis for 6 yds to the LAF 33

3rd & 2Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA +1.15

Dean DeNobile pass complete to Carson Persing for 3 yds to the LAF 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception-3 ydsPPA -1.49

Dean DeNobile pass complete to Carson Persing for a loss of 3 yards to the LAF 33

2nd & 13Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.52

Jamar Curtis run for a loss of 2 yards to the LAF 31

3rd & 15Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +0.91

Dean DeNobile pass complete to Carson Persing for 14 yds to the LAF 45

4th & 1Penalty-5 yds

Lafayette Penalty, delay of game (Jakob Trestik) to the LAF 40

4th & 6Punt+22 yds

Jakob Trestik punt for 45 yds for a 1ST down , Victor Snow returns for 22 yds to the BUF 38 for a 1ST down Lafayette Penalty, personal foul (Ethan Hosak) to the LAF 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.33

C.J. Ogbonna run for 6 yds to the LAF 42

2nd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.36

Al-Jay Henderson run for 3 yds to the LAF 39

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.67

Al-Jay Henderson run for 2 yds to the LAF 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.25

C.J. Ogbonna run for 6 yds to the LAF 31

2nd & 4Passing Touchdown+31 ydsPPA +2.81

C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Nik McMillan for 31 yds for a TD (Nick Reed KICK)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+27 yds

Upton Bellenfant kickoff for 59 yds , Gianlucca Tiberia return for 27 yds to the LAF 33

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Lafayette Penalty, delay of game (Dean DeNobile) to the LAF 28

1st & 15Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.22

Dean DeNobile pass complete to Chris Carasia for 6 yds to the LAF 34

2nd & 9Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.49

Dean DeNobile pass complete to Dallas Holmes for 7 yds to the LAF 41

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.70

Jamar Curtis run for 1 yd to the LAF 42

4th & 1Punt+1 yds

Jakob Trestik punt for 47 yds , Victor Snow returns for 1 yd to the BUF 12

2nd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Lamar Sperling run for 4 yds to the BUF 19

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.16

Lamar Sperling run for 3 yds to the BUF 15

3rd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.23

C.J. Ogbonna run for 1 yd to the BUF 20

4th & 2Penalty-5 yds

Buffalo Penalty, false start (Clevester Hines III) to the BUF 15

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Ethan Duane punt for 58 yds

1st & 10Sack-1 ydsPPA -0.88

Dean DeNobile sacked for a loss of 1 yard to the LAF 26

2nd & 11Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.28

Jamar Curtis run for 1 yd to the LAF 27

3rd & 10Sack-10 ydsPPA -0.30

Dean DeNobile sacked for a loss of 10 yards to the LAF 17

4th & 20Punt0 yds

Jakob Trestik punt for 36 yds

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.67

Lamar Sperling run for 2 yds to the BUF 49

2nd & 8Pass Reception+34 ydsPPA +2.18

C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Jake Orlando for 34 yds to the LAF 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Lamar Sperling run for 4 yds to the LAF 13

2nd & 6Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.72

C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Nik McMillan for 8 yds to the LAF 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.55

pass incomplete to Chance Morrow

2nd & 5Fumble Recovery (Own)+1 ydsPPA -0.26

C.J. Ogbonna run for 1 yd to the LAF 4 C.J. Ogbonna fumbled, recovered by BUF

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

pass incomplete

4th & 4Field Goal Good+22 yds

Nick Reed 22 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +1.32

Troy Bruce run for 15 yds to the LAF 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.12

pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.53

Dean DeNobile pass complete to Troy Bruce for 7 yds to the LAF 47

3rd & 3Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +1.66

Dean DeNobile pass complete to Troy Bruce for 5 yds to the BUF 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.13

Dean DeNobile pass complete to Chris Carasia for 4 yds to the BUF 44

2nd & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.87

Troy Bruce run for 1 yd to the BUF 43

3rd & 5Pass Reception+29 ydsPPA +2.14

Dean DeNobile pass complete to Chris Carasia for 29 yds to the BUF 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.38

Troy Bruce run for a loss of 1 yard to the BUF 15

2nd & 11Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.26

Dean DeNobile run for 8 yds to the BUF 7

3rd & 3Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.50

Jamar Curtis run for a loss of 2 yards to the BUF 9

4th & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -3.83

Dean DeNobile run for 2 yds to the BUF 7

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.26

Al-Jay Henderson run for 1 yd to the BUF 8

2nd & 9Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.10

Al-Jay Henderson run for 6 yds to the BUF 14

3rd & 3Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA +0.54

C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Victor Snow for 4 yds to the BUF 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.08

Al-Jay Henderson run for 4 yds to the BUF 22

2nd & 6Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.42

C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Victor Snow for 14 yds to the BUF 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.64

Al-Jay Henderson run for 2 yds to the BUF 38

2nd & 8Rush-5 ydsPPA -1.26

Henderson,Al-Jay rush (Thomas,Reggie;Roundtree,Tristen), PENALTY BUF false start (Johnson,Taji) 5 yards to the BUF43. Buffalo Penalty, false start (Taji Johnson) to the BUF 33

2nd & 13Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.04

C.J. Ogbonna run for 5 yds to the BUF 38

3rd & 8Punt0 yds

Ethan Duane punt for 38 yds

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+18 ydsPPA +2.59

Dallas Holmes 18 Yd pass from Carson Persing (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion-62 yds

Dean DeNobile pass incomplete, broken up by Jalen McNair

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Dean DeNobile pass complete to Elijah Steward for 2 yds to the LAF 27

2nd & 8Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.43

Dean DeNobile pass complete to Chris Carasia for 7 yds to the LAF 34

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.05

Jamar Curtis run for 3 yds to the LAF 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.24

Jamar Curtis run for a loss of 1 yard to the LAF 36

2nd & 11Sack-9 ydsPPA -1.00

Dean DeNobile sacked for a loss of 9 yards to the LAF 27

3rd & 20Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.09

Jamar Curtis run for 8 yds to the LAF 35

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Jakob Trestik punt for 40 yds

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Henderson,Al-Jay rush middle (Thomas,Reggie).

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

pass incomplete to Nik McMillan

3rd & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.21

Al-Jay Henderson run for a loss of 3 yards to the BUF 22

4th & 13Punt0 yds

punt for no gain

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+18 yds

Jakob Trestik kickoff for 62 yds , Mark-Anthony Scott Jr. return for 18 yds to the BUF 21

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.59

C.J. Ogbonna pass incomplete to Nik McMillan, broken up by Tyree Morris

2nd & 10Penalty-5 yds

Buffalo Penalty, false start (Shey Williams) to the BUF 16

2nd & 15Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.06

Lamar Sperling run for 6 yds to the BUF 22

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.15

C.J. Ogbonna pass incomplete to Taji Johnson, broken up by Gabe DuBois

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Ethan Duane punt for 38 yds

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.12

Dean DeNobile pass incomplete to Elijah Steward, broken up by Eddie Pleasant III

2nd & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.87

Jamar Curtis run for a loss of 1 yard to the LAF 39

3rd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.36

pass incomplete to Chris Carasia

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Jakob Trestik punt for 36 yds , Victor Snow returns for no gain to the BUF 25

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

C.J. Ogbonna pass incomplete to Taji Johnson, broken up by Jaylon Joseph

2nd & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.31

Jacqez Barksdale run for 7 yds to the BUF 32

3rd & 3Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.42

Jacqez Barksdale run for 5 yds to the BUF 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.66

Jacqez Barksdale run for 2 yds to the BUF 39

2nd & 8Rush+16 ydsPPA +2.23

Jacqez Barksdale run for 16 yds to the LAF 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.50

Jacqez Barksdale run for 10 yds to the LAF 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.22

Jacqez Barksdale run for 3 yds to the LAF 32

2nd & 7Passing Touchdown+32 ydsPPA +3.19

C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Taji Johnson for 32 yds for a TD (Nick Reed KICK)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Jamar Curtis run for 2 yds to the LAF 27

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion+15 ydsPPA +1.97

Dean DeNobile pass incomplete to Carson Persing for a 1ST down Buffalo Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Jonathan Capo) to the LAF 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Dean DeNobile pass complete to Jamar Curtis for 5 yds to the LAF 47

2nd & 5Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.71

Dean DeNobile pass complete to Chris Carasia for 2 yds to the LAF 49

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion+15 ydsPPA +2.15

Dean DeNobile pass incomplete to Jamar Curtis for a 1ST down Buffalo Penalty, roughing passer (C.J. Bazile) to the BUF 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.72

pass incomplete to Chris Carasia

2nd & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Dean DeNobile pass complete to Carson Persing for 5 yds to the BUF 31

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.95

pass incomplete to Elijah Steward

4th & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -2.38

Dean DeNobile run for 4 yds to the BUF 27

2nd & 7Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -1.22

C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Mark-Anthony Scott Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the LAF 40

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.49

Jacqez Barksdale run for 2 yds to the BUF 29

2nd & 8Rush0 ydsPPA -0.53

Burch,Messiah rush right (Cross,Semaj).

3rd & 8Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +2.30

C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Nik McMillan for 12 yds to the BUF 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Jacqez Barksdale run for 4 yds to the BUF 45

2nd & 6Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.53

Jacqez Barksdale run for 13 yds to the LAF 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.29

Jacqez Barksdale run for 3 yds to the LAF 39

3rd & 8Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.29

C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Victor Snow for 6 yds to the LAF 34

4th & 2Field Goal Missed+52 yds

Nick Reed 52 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+19 ydsPPA +2.60

Jacqez Barksdale run for 19 yds for a TD (Nick Reed KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.99

pass incomplete to Mason Kuehner

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.37

Jamar Curtis run for 2 yds to the LAF 36

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion+15 ydsPPA +2.93

Dean DeNobile pass incomplete to Chris Carasia for a 1ST down Buffalo Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Charles McCartherens) to the BUF 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.82

Troy Bruce run for 8 yds to the BUF 41

2nd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.10

pass incomplete to Devin Paige

3rd & 2Rush+6 ydsPPA +1.07

Dean DeNobile run for 6 yds to the BUF 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +0.35

Dean DeNobile pass complete to Elijah Steward for 15 yds to the BUF 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception-2 ydsPPA -0.55

Dean DeNobile pass complete to Ethan Hosak for a loss of 2 yards to the BUF 22

2nd & 12Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.13

Jamar Curtis run for a loss of 3 yards to the BUF 19 Troy Bruce run for 6 yds to the BUF 19

3rd & 9Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.15

Dean DeNobile pass complete to Elijah Steward for 6 yds to the BUF 13

4th & 3Passing Touchdown+13 ydsPPA +3.20

Dean DeNobile pass complete to Chris Carasia for 13 yds for a TD (Jack Simonetta KICK)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+13 yds

Jakob Trestik kickoff for 60 yds , Mark-Anthony Scott Jr. return for 13 yds to the BUF 18

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Dean DeNobile pass complete to Elijah Steward for 5 yds to the BUF 13

2nd & 5Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.47

Dean DeNobile run for a loss of 1 yard to the BUF 14

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.46

pass incomplete to Elijah Steward

4th & 6Field Goal Missed+31 yds

Jack Simonetta 31 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.29

Jacqez Barksdale run for 6 yds to the BUF 26

2nd & 4Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.40

Jacqez Barksdale run for 4 yds to the BUF 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-10 ydsPPA -1.56

Barksdale,Jacqez rush (O'Hearn,Tim), PENALTY BUF holding (Polizzi,Dom) 10 yards to the BUF40. Buffalo Penalty, Offensive holding (Dom Polizzi) to the BUF 20

1st & 20Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.02

Jacqez Barksdale run for 5 yds to the BUF 25

2nd & 15Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.53

C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Victor Snow for 10 yds to the BUF 35

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.49

pass incomplete to Nik McMillan

4th & 5Punt+9 yds

Ethan Duane punt for 51 yds , Semaj Cross returns for 9 yds to the LAF 23

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.78

Dean DeNobile pass complete to Chris Carasia for 10 yds to the LAF 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -1.57

Dean DeNobile pass intercepted

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Nahjee Adams run for 3 yds to the LAF 28

2nd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.36

Tray Mauney run for 2 yds to the LAF 30

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

pass incomplete to Gabe Decker

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Jakob Trestik punt for 43 yds

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.32

Terrance Shelton Jr. run for 3 yds to the BUF 30

2nd & 7Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.20

Terrance Shelton Jr. run for 7 yds to the BUF 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.04

Terrance Shelton Jr. run for 8 yds to the BUF 45

2nd & 2Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.08

Terrance Shelton Jr. run for 2 yds to the BUF 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.37

Terrance Shelton Jr. run for 6 yds to the LAF 47

2nd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.42

Terrance Shelton Jr. run for 3 yds to the LAF 44

3rd & 1Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.00

Terrance Shelton Jr. run for 5 yds to the LAF 44 for a 1ST down

Situational Analysis

Lafayette

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
29%
24 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
0%
1 play
0%
3 plays
64%
11 plays
40%
5 plays
3rd
71%
7 plays
20%
5 plays
67%
3 plays
67%
3 plays
4th
100%
1 play
0%
2 plays

Buffalo

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
38%
29 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
0%
3 plays
67%
9 plays
58%
12 plays
100%
4 plays
3rd
67%
6 plays
0%
2 plays
50%
4 plays
4th