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← Back to GamesNov 10, 2024Week 11
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Fresno State by 17.4

Home Win Probability

Air Force 14%

Market (Bovada)

Air Force +9.5

Edge: Fresno State -9.5 (7.9 pts)

fitted_v1 · Nov 10, 2024

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Fresno StateFresno State
7140728
Air ForceAir Force
71091036

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428427-714-714-1420-2126-2133-2136-2136-28
Air ForceFresno State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20FSAFFSAFFSAFFSAFAFFSAFFSAFFSAFFSAFTD759ydTD1975ydPUNT3-1ydTD1459ydTD375ydDOWNS49ydTD334ydFG1153ydFG956ydTO22ydTD1142ydDOWNS539ydTD1264ydDOWNS60ydFG86ydTD975ydEND1-1yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Fresno State and Air Force
StatisticFresno StateAir Force
Passing23-262-6
Pass Yards28914
Rush Yards-5344
Total Yards284358
Turnovers10
3rd Down1-410-19
Penalties5-424-26
Possession14:5245:08

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Fresno State
passing
Mikey Keene
23/26, 289 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Elijah Gilliam
4 CAR, 15 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Mac Dalena
4 REC, 89 YDS, 2 TD
defense
Air Force
passing
Quentin Hayes
2/6, 14 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Dylan Carson
33 CAR, 120 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Brandon Engel
1 REC, 11 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+41 yds

Reagan Tubbs kickoff for 65 yds , Jalen Moss return for 41 yds to the FRES 41

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

Air Force Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle on AIHIE, Osaro enforced (Osaro Aihie) to the AFA 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.20

Elijah Gilliam run for 12 yds to the AFA 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.45

Mikey Keene pass complete to Richie Anderson for 8 yds to the AFA 8

2nd & 2Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.43

Johnathan Arceneaux run for 4 yds to the AFA 4 for a 1ST down

1st & 4Rush0 ydsPPA -0.65

Elijah Gilliam run for no gain to the AFA 4

2nd & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.21

Johnathan Arceneaux run for 2 yds to the AFA 2

3rd & 2Penalty+1 yds

(11:30) KEENE, Mikey sacked for a loss of 0 yards at the AF2 (TUIOTI-MARINER, Lincoln), clock 11:24. PENALTY AF Holding on BELLAMY, Jamari enforced half the distance from the goal, 1 yards from the AF2 to the AF1 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +0.94

Elijah Gilliam run for 1 yd for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Dylan Carson run for 5 yds to the AFA 30

2nd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Dylan Carson run for 4 yds to the AFA 34

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.05

Quentin Hayes run for 3 yds to the AFA 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.42

Owen Allen run for 3 yds to the AFA 40

2nd & 7Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.38

Kade Frew run for 7 yds to the AFA 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Dylan Carson run for 5 yds to the FRES 48

2nd & 5Rush0 ydsPPA -1.18

Dylan Carson run for no gain to the FRES 48

3rd & 5Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.82

Kade Frew run for 5 yds to the FRES 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Quentin Hayes run for 5 yds to the FRES 38

2nd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.31

Dylan Carson run for 3 yds to the FRES 35

3rd & 2Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.78

Owen Allen run for 6 yds to the FRES 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Air Force Penalty, Illegal Substitution (-5 Yards) to the FRES 34

1st & 15Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Owen Allen run for 5 yds to the FRES 29

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Tylor Latham run for 5 yds to the FRES 24

3rd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.08

Quentin Hayes run for 4 yds to the FRES 20

4th & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.78

Quentin Hayes run for 3 yds to the FRES 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.11

Dylan Carson run for 3 yds to the FRES 14

2nd & 7Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Dylan Carson run for 5 yds to the FRES 9

3rd & 2Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.69

Dylan Carson run for 8 yds to the FRES 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +0.94

Dylan Carson run for 1 yd for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+21 yds

Reagan Tubbs kickoff for 65 yds , Jalen Moss return for 21 yds to the FRES 21

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.38

Bryson Donelson run for 2 yds to the FRES 23

2nd & 8Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.33

Mikey Keene pass complete to Jalen Moss for 1 yd to the FRES 24

3rd & 7Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.18

Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for 1 yd to the FRES 25

4th & 6Penalty-5 yds

Fresno State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the FRES 20

4th & 11Punt+3 yds

Clay Lawrence punt for 42 yds , Brandon Engel returns for 3 yds to the AFA 41

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.92

Quentin Hayes run for 1 yd to the AFA 42

2nd & 9Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.82

Quentin Hayes run for 9 yds to the FRES 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.62

Dylan Carson run for 2 yds to the FRES 47

2nd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.65

Owen Allen run for 2 yds to the FRES 45

3rd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.62

Quentin Hayes run for 2 yds to the FRES 43

4th & 4Penalty+15 yds

HAYES, Quentin pass short to the right incomplete intended for FREW, Kade thrown to the FS38, clock 09:45. PENALTY FS Personal Foul on NEAL, Julian enforced 15 yards from the FS43 to the FS28 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.16

Dylan Carson run for 3 yds to the FRES 25

2nd & 7Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.33

Quentin Hayes run for 7 yds to the FRES 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.11

Owen Allen run for 3 yds to the FRES 15

2nd & 7Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Owen Allen run for 5 yds to the FRES 10

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.30

Dylan Carson run for 1 yd to the FRES 9

4th & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.75

Quentin Hayes run for 2 yds to the FRES 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.14

Cade Harris run for 3 yds to the FRES 4

2nd & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.29

Dylan Carson run for 1 yd to the FRES 3

3rd & 3Passing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +2.62

Quentin Hayes pass complete to Cade Harris for 3 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)

1st & 10Rush-8 ydsPPA -1.18

Mikey Keene run for a loss of 8 yards to the FRES 17

2nd & 18Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.24

Mikey Keene pass complete to Jordan Brown for 10 yds to the FRES 27

3rd & 8Passing Touchdown+73 ydsPPA +7.01

Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for 73 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)

0th & 0Penalty-5 yds

Fresno State Penalty, Delay Of Game (Devo Bridges) to the AFA 8

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Cade Harris run for 5 yds to the AFA 30

2nd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.31

Quentin Hayes run for 3 yds to the AFA 33

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.50

Dylan Carson run for 1 yd to the AFA 34

4th & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.20

Quentin Hayes run for no gain to the AFA 34

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.20

Joshua Wood run for a loss of 3 yards to the AFA 37

2nd & 13Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +1.53

Mikey Keene pass complete to Richie Anderson for 18 yds to the AFA 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+19 ydsPPA +2.60

Mikey Keene pass complete to Jalen Moss for 19 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Quentin Hayes run for 4 yds to the AFA 34

2nd & 6Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.37

Quentin Hayes run for 9 yds to the AFA 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Quentin Hayes pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.85

Quentin Hayes pass incomplete

3rd & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +3.12

Quentin Hayes run for 14 yds to the FRES 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.94

Quentin Hayes pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.42

Quentin Hayes pass complete to Brandon Engel for 11 yds to the FRES 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.61

Quentin Hayes pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.63

Quentin Hayes run for 1 yd to the FRES 31

3rd & 9Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.53

Owen Allen run for 14 yds to the FRES 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Field Goal Good+35 yds

Matthew Dapore 35 yd FG GOOD

0th & 0End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.25

Kade Frew run for 9 yds to the AFA 34

2nd & 1Rush+5 ydsPPA -0.03

Dylan Carson run for 5 yds to the AFA 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Dylan Carson run for 3 yds to the AFA 42

2nd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.40

Dylan Carson run for 3 yds to the AFA 45

3rd & 4Rush+30 ydsPPA +2.98

Cade Harris run for 30 yds to the FRES 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Quentin Hayes run for 5 yds to the FRES 20

2nd & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.37

Owen Allen run for 1 yd to the FRES 19

3rd & 4Rush0 ydsPPA -0.57

Owen Allen run for no gain to the FRES 19

4th & 4Field Goal Good+37 yds

Matthew Dapore 37 yd FG GOOD

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+17 yds

Reagan Tubbs kickoff for 65 yds , Jalen Moss return for 17 yds to the FRES 17

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.31

Elijah Gilliam run for 2 yds to the FRES 19

2nd & 8Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -0.15

Mikey Keene pass intercepted Blake Fletcher return for no gain to the FRES 42

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.29

Dylan Carson run for 3 yds to the FRES 39

2nd & 7Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.77

Quentin Hayes run for 9 yds to the FRES 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.21

Dylan Carson run for 6 yds to the FRES 24

2nd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.18

Dylan Carson run for 3 yds to the FRES 21

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.62

Quentin Hayes run for no gain to the FRES 21

4th & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.80

Quentin Hayes run for 2 yds to the FRES 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.41

Dylan Carson run for 12 yds to the FRES 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.33

Quentin Hayes run for 1 yd to the FRES 6

2nd & 6Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.36

Dylan Carson run for a loss of 1 yard to the FRES 7

3rd & 7Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.03

Quentin Hayes run for 5 yds to the FRES 2

4th & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +2.85

Quentin Hayes run for 2 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)

1st & 10Pass Reception+32 ydsPPA +2.73

Mikey Keene pass complete to Jalen Moss for 32 yds to the AFA 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.94

Mikey Keene pass complete to Jalen Moss for no gain to the AFA 43

2nd & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Mikey Keene pass complete to Bryson Donelson for 5 yds to the AFA 38

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Mikey Keene pass incomplete

4th & 5Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -1.70

Mikey Keene pass complete to Elijah Gilliam for 2 yds to the AFA 36

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Dylan Carson run for 4 yds to the AFA 40

2nd & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Dylan Carson run for 5 yds to the AFA 45

3rd & 1Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.79

Dylan Carson run for 11 yds to the FRES 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.30

Owen Allen run for 6 yds to the FRES 38

2nd & 4Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.28

Cameron Breier run for 7 yds to the FRES 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.70

Cade Harris run for 9 yds to the FRES 22

2nd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.47

Dylan Carson run for 2 yds to the FRES 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.46

Kade Frew run for 8 yds to the FRES 12

2nd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.26

Dylan Carson run for 3 yds to the FRES 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Dylan Carson run for 3 yds to the FRES 6

2nd & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Dylan Carson run for 5 yds to the FRES 1

3rd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +2.45

Quentin Hayes run for 1 yd for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)

1st & 10Penalty-12 yds

(08:50) KEENE, Mikey pass deep to the left complete for 21 yards to MOSS, Jalen caught at the FS43 and advanced to the FS46 (GOFF, Camby), out of bounds, clock 08:45. PENALTY FS Personal Foul on NELSON, Braylen enforced half the distance from the goal, 12 yards from the FS25 to the FS13 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 22Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +1.49

Mikey Keene pass complete to Tim Grear Jr. for 18 yds to the FRES 31

2nd & 4Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.89

Mikey Keene pass complete to Tim Grear Jr. for 8 yds to the FRES 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-4 ydsPPA -1.75

Mikey Keene sacked by James Tomasi for a loss of 4 yards to the FRES 35

2nd & 14Rush0 ydsPPA -0.43

Mikey Keene run for no gain to the FRES 35

3rd & 14Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Mikey Keene pass complete to Jake Tarwater for 3 yds to the FRES 38

4th & 11Sack-13 ydsPPA +0.13

Mikey Keene sacked by David Santiago for a loss of 13 yards to the FRES 25

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.24

Dylan Carson run for 2 yds to the FRES 23

2nd & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.16

Dylan Carson run for 3 yds to the FRES 20

3rd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Dylan Carson run for 4 yds to the FRES 16

4th & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.62

Dylan Carson run for 2 yds to the FRES 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Air Force Penalty, False Start (Tylor Latham) to the FRES 19

1st & 15Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.25

Kade Frew run for 1 yd to the FRES 18

2nd & 14Rush0 ydsPPA -0.50

Quentin Hayes run for no gain to the FRES 18

3rd & 14Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.99

Quentin Hayes run for a loss of 1 yard to the FRES 19

4th & 15Field Goal Good+36 yds

Matthew Dapore 36 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Mikey Keene pass complete to Jalen Moss for 7 yds to the FRES 32

2nd & 3Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.52

Mikey Keene pass complete to Richie Anderson for 6 yds to the FRES 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.41

Mikey Keene pass complete to Jalen Moss for 16 yds to the AFA 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +0.73

Mikey Keene pass complete to Johnathan Arceneaux for 16 yds to the AFA 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.69

Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for 9 yds to the AFA 21

2nd & 1Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.47

Mikey Keene pass complete to Johnathan Arceneaux for 3 yds to the AFA 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Mikey Keene pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.89

Mikey Keene pass complete to Richie Anderson for 12 yds to the AFA 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Passing Touchdown+6 ydsPPA +2.05

Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for 6 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)0 yds

Dylan Lynch kickoff for 14 yds , Tuasivi Nomura return for no gain to the FRES 49

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.33

(00:36) Kneel down by TEAM at FS50 (team loss of 1), clock 00:28.

Situational Analysis

Fresno State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
50%
2 plays
53%
15 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
67%
3 plays
50%
2 plays
50%
4 plays
67%
3 plays
3rd
0%
1 play
50%
2 plays
0%
1 play
4th
0%
1 play
100%
1 play

Air Force

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
38%
29 plays
50%
2 plays
2nd
0%
3 plays
33%
12 plays
62%
13 plays
0%
1 play
3rd
67%
9 plays
33%
6 plays
100%
3 plays
0%
1 play
4th
83%
6 plays