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← Back to GamesOct 26, 2024Week 9
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Dayton by 13.9

Home Win Probability

Dayton 79%

Market (ESPN Bet)

Dayton -14.5

Edge: Morehead State +14.5 (0.7 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 26, 2024

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Morehead State
077014
Dayton
00606

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q40140-76-76-14
DaytonMorehead State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20DAYMSDAYMSDAYMSDAYMSMSDAYMSDAYMSDAYMSDAYMSDAYMSDAYMSDAYMSPUNT929ydPUNT3-3ydTO942ydTD866ydPUNT34ydPUNT1238ydPUNT1117ydPUNT35ydPUNT34ydMISS613ydTO1-4ydFG44ydPUNT30ydFG1155ydTD188ydPUNT3-7ydMISS948ydTO32ydPUNT3-21ydDOWNS728ydMISS747ydDOWNS56ydEND415yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Morehead State and Dayton
StatisticMorehead StateDayton
Passing16-2512-27
Pass Yards28491
Rush Yards9107
Total Yards293198
Turnovers12
3rd Down5-146-16
Penalties3-304-25
Possession27:2332:37

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Morehead State
passing
Carter Cravens
16/25, 284 YDS, 2 TD
rushing
Isaac Stopke
10 CAR, 38 YDS
receiving
Nate Garnett
9 REC, 212 YDS, 1 TD
Dayton
passing
Drew VanVleet
12/27, 91 YDS, 1 INT
rushing
Mason Hackett
21 CAR, 82 YDS
receiving
Gavin Lochow
6 REC, 45 YDS

Play-by-Play

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+20 yds

Thomas Schwartz V kickoff for 65 yds , Gavin Lochow return for 20 yds to the DAY 20

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Mason Hackett run for 4 yds to the DAY 24

2nd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.33

Mason Hackett run for 2 yds to the DAY 26

3rd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.14

Mason Hackett run for 3 yds to the DAY 29

4th & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +1.26

Mason Hackett run for 1 yd to the DAY 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.35

Gavin Lochow run for 9 yds to the DAY 39

2nd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.32

Mason Hackett run for 2 yds to the DAY 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Drew VanVleet pass complete to Gavin Lochow for 6 yds to the DAY 47

2nd & 4Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.50

Dillon Fitzpatrick run for 4 yds to the MORE 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.56

Dillon Fitzpatrick run for a loss of 2 yards to the DAY 49

2nd & 12Punt0 yds

Logan Forcum punt for 35 yds, downed at the MORE 16

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.46

Carter Cravens pass complete to Nate Garnett for 7 yds to the MORE 23

2nd & 3Fumble Recovery (Own)-10 ydsPPA -1.20

Carter Cravens run for a loss of 10 yards to the MORE 13 Carter Cravens fumbled, recovered by MORE Carter Cravens C. Cravens return for 0 yds

3rd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.05

Carter Cravens pass incomplete

4th & 13Punt+20 yds

Kip Warren punt for 52 yds , Paul Kelly returns for 20 yds to the DAY 24

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.59

Drew VanVleet pass complete to Gavin Lochow for 7 yds to the DAY 31

2nd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.80

Mason Hackett run for 1 yd to the DAY 32

3rd & 2Rush+6 ydsPPA +1.40

Drew VanVleet run for 6 yds to the DAY 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.67

Mason Hackett run for 2 yds to the DAY 40

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.87

Drew VanVleet pass incomplete

3rd & 8Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +2.72

Drew VanVleet pass complete to Gavin Lochow for 11 yds to the MORE 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+28 ydsPPA +1.13

Mason Hackett run for 28 yds to the MORE 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Dayton Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MORE 26

1st & 15Sack-7 ydsPPA -1.71

Drew VanVleet sacked by Dillon Schobourgh for a loss of 7 yards to the MORE 33

2nd & 22Fumble Recovery (Opponent)-1 ydsPPA -2.23

Drew VanVleet run for a loss of 1 yard to the MORE 34 Drew VanVleet fumbled, recovered by MORE Dillon Schobourgh D. Schobourgh return for 0 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.97

Carter Cravens pass complete to Nate Garnett for 10 yds to the MORE 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +1.47

Carter Cravens pass complete to Ryan Upp for 23 yds to the DAY 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +0.31

Isaac Stopke run for 15 yds to the DAY 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.18

Carter Cravens run for 6 yds to the DAY 12

2nd & 4Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.47

Isaac Stopke run for 11 yds to the DAY 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.13

Isaac Stopke run for a loss of 1 yard to the DAY 2

2nd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

Carter Cravens pass incomplete

3rd & 2Passing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +2.54

Carter Cravens pass complete to Christian Pedersen for 2 yds for a TD (Thomas Schwartz V KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)0 yds

Thomas Schwartz V kickoff for 42 yds , Cade Beam return for no gain to the DAY 23

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.27

Mason Hackett run for 3 yds to the DAY 26

2nd & 7Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.43

Mason Hackett run for 1 yd to the DAY 27

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.28

Drew VanVleet pass incomplete

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Logan Forcum punt for 45 yds

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.80

Carter Cravens pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.41

Carter Cravens pass incomplete

3rd & 10Penalty+5 yds

Dayton Penalty, Offsides (5 Yards) to the MORE 33

3rd & 5Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +2.14

Carter Cravens pass complete to Nate Garnett for 10 yds to the MORE 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.39

Chance Harris run for 6 yds to the MORE 49

2nd & 4Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.90

Chance Harris run for a loss of 3 yards to the MORE 46

3rd & 7Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +2.73

Carter Cravens pass complete to Nate Garnett for 13 yds to the DAY 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.88

Carter Cravens pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.37

Carter Cravens pass complete to Nate Garnett for 3 yds to the DAY 38

3rd & 7Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +1.64

Carter Cravens pass complete to Bradley West for 7 yds to the DAY 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.44

Chance Harris run for 1 yd to the DAY 30

2nd & 9Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.24

Chance Harris run for 3 yds to the DAY 27

3rd & 6Sack-7 ydsPPA -2.31

Carter Cravens sacked by Jack Wardzala for a loss of 7 yards to the DAY 34

4th & 13Punt0 yds

Kip Warren punt for 33 yds, downed at the DAY 1

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Mason Hackett run for 3 yds to the DAY 4

2nd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.07

Mason Hackett run for 3 yds to the DAY 7

3rd & 4Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.54

Gavin Lochow run for 8 yds to the DAY 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.44

Drew VanVleet pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.17

Mason Hackett run for 1 yd to the DAY 16

3rd & 9Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.15

Drew VanVleet pass complete to Gavin Lochow for 9 yds to the DAY 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Drew VanVleet pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.83

Gavin Lochow run for 13 yds to the DAY 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.09

Drew VanVleet pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.79

Mason Hackett run for a loss of 1 yard to the DAY 37

3rd & 11Sack-19 ydsPPA -0.57

Drew VanVleet sacked by Luke Bauer and Branden Stearman for a loss of 19 yards to the DAY 18

4th & 30Punt-9 yds

Logan Forcum punt for 54 yds , Ryan Upp returns for a loss of 9 yards to the MORE 9 Morehead State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Chance Harris) to the MORE 19

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.51

Chance Harris run for no gain to the MORE 18

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Chance Harris run for 4 yds to the MORE 22

3rd & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.18

Chance Harris run for 1 yd to the MORE 23

4th & 5Blocked Punt0 yds

null punt blocked by Vincent Firenze blocked by Vincent Firenze

0th & 10End of Half+6 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+11 yds

David Maurer kickoff for 65 yds , Monterris Engram return for 11 yds to the MORE 11

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

Carter Cravens pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Isaac Stopke run for 4 yds to the MORE 15

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.15

Carter Cravens pass incomplete

4th & 6Punt+27 yds

Kip Warren punt for 45 yds , Paul Kelly returns for 27 yds to the MORE 33

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Mason Hackett run for 4 yds to the MORE 29

2nd & 6Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.38

Mason Hackett run for 12 yds to the MORE 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.34

Drew VanVleet pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.21

Mason Hackett run for 2 yds to the MORE 15

3rd & 8Sack-5 ydsPPA -1.38

Drew VanVleet sacked by Josh Bowling for a loss of 5 yards to the MORE 20

4th & 13Field Goal Missed+37 yds

Danny Baker 37 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Opponent)-4 ydsPPA -0.61

Drew Nyangweso run for a loss of 4 yards to the MORE 16 Carter Cravens fumbled, recovered by DAY Chase Brown C. Brown return for 0 yds

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.18

Mason Hackett run for 2 yds to the MORE 14

2nd & 8Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Mason Hackett run for 4 yds to the MORE 10

3rd & 4Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.57

Drew VanVleet run for a loss of 2 yards to the MORE 12

4th & 6Field Goal Good+29 yds

Danny Baker 29 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Carter Cravens pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.35

Chance Harris run for no gain to the MORE 25

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.16

Carter Cravens pass incomplete

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+1 yds

David Maurer kickoff for 41 yds , Kylyn Macklin return for 1 yd to the MORE 25

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Kip Warren punt for 38 yds , Paul Kelly returns for no gain to the DAY 37

1st & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -1.07

Drew VanVleet pass complete to Ty Stylski for no gain to the DAY 37

2nd & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.74

Drew VanVleet pass complete to Gavin Lochow for 8 yds to the DAY 45

3rd & 2Penalty+5 yds

VANVLEET, Drew pass short up the middle incomplete intended for LOCHOW, Gavin thrown to the DAY50. PENALTY MSU Pass Interference enforced at the spot of the foul for 5 yards to the MSU50 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.11

Drew VanVleet pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+24 ydsPPA +2.24

Ty Stylski run for 24 yds to the MORE 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.15

Ty Stylski run for 3 yds to the MORE 23

2nd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.16

Ty Stylski run for 3 yds to the MORE 20

3rd & 4Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.47

Drew VanVleet run for 5 yds to the MORE 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.32

Drew VanVleet pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.19

Ty Stylski run for 7 yds to the MORE 8

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Drew VanVleet pass incomplete

4th & 3Field Goal Good+25 yds

Danny Baker 25 yd FG GOOD

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+4 yds

David Maurer kickoff for 57 yds , Chance Harris return for 4 yds to the MORE 12

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+88 ydsPPA +6.73

Carter Cravens pass complete to Nate Garnett for 88 yds for a TD (Thomas Schwartz V KICK)

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Dayton Penalty, False Start (TEAM) to the DAY 30

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+5 yds

Thomas Schwartz V kickoff for 35 yds , Gavin Lochow return for 5 yds to the DAY 35

1st & 15Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Drew VanVleet pass complete to Gavin Lochow for 4 yds to the DAY 34

2nd & 11Sack-9 ydsPPA -0.89

Drew VanVleet sacked by Luciano Corpora-Ellis for a loss of 9 yards to the DAY 25

3rd & 20Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.03

Drew VanVleet pass complete to Alec Keathley for 3 yds to the DAY 28

4th & 17Punt0 yds

Logan Forcum punt for 32 yds

1st & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.79

Chance Harris run for a loss of 4 yards to the MORE 36

2nd & 14Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +3.31

Carter Cravens pass complete to Trevion Green for 23 yds to the DAY 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.43

Carter Cravens pass complete to Ryan Upp for 11 yds to the DAY 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Carter Cravens pass complete to Nate Garnett for 5 yds to the DAY 25

2nd & 5Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.13

Isaac Stopke run for 6 yds to the DAY 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.36

Isaac Stopke run for no gain to the DAY 19

2nd & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Carter Cravens pass complete to Ryan Upp for 5 yds to the DAY 14

3rd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.24

Carter Cravens run for 2 yds to the DAY 12

4th & 3Field Goal Missed+29 yds

Thomas Schwartz V 29 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.36

Ty Stylski run for 2 yds to the DAY 22

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

Drew VanVleet pass incomplete

3rd & 8Penalty+15 yds

Morehead State Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (TEAM) to the DAY 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-15 yds

Morehead State Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (TEAM) to the DAY 45

1st & 25Rush0 ydsPPA -0.92

Chance Harris run for no gain to the DAY 45

2nd & 25Sack-7 ydsPPA -1.03

Carter Cravens sacked by Gideon Lampron for a loss of 7 yards to the MORE 48

3rd & 32Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.09

Carter Cravens pass complete to Chance Harris for 1 yd to the MORE 49

4th & 31Punt0 yds

Kip Warren punt for 22 yds, downed at the DAY 29

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.34

Mason Hackett run for 3 yds to the DAY 32

2nd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.44

Mason Hackett run for 2 yds to the DAY 34

3rd & 5Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +2.79

Drew VanVleet pass complete to Alec Keathley for 17 yds to the MORE 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-7 ydsPPA -2.53

Drew VanVleet sacked by Gabe Whittington for a loss of 7 yards to the DAY 44

2nd & 17Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.57

Drew VanVleet pass incomplete

3rd & 17Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.22

Drew VanVleet pass complete to Dominic Vrbancic for 13 yds to the MORE 43

4th & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.36

Drew VanVleet pass incomplete

1st & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.90

Isaac Stopke run for a loss of 4 yards to the MORE 39

2nd & 14Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.35

Isaac Stopke run for 2 yds to the MORE 41

3rd & 12Pass Reception+43 ydsPPA +4.15

Carter Cravens pass complete to Nate Garnett for 43 yds to the DAY 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.45

Isaac Stopke run for 8 yds to the DAY 8

2nd & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -0.49

Chance Harris run for no gain to the DAY 8

3rd & 2Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.54

Chance Harris run for a loss of 2 yards to the DAY 10

4th & 4Field Goal Missed+27 yds

Thomas Schwartz V 27 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.69

Drew VanVleet pass complete to Dominic Vrbancic for 10 yds to the DAY 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.86

Drew VanVleet pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.20

Drew VanVleet pass complete to Dominic Vrbancic for 3 yds to the DAY 33

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.36

Drew VanVleet pass incomplete

4th & 7Sack-7 ydsPPA +0.11

Drew VanVleet sacked by Kenneth Shaffner for a loss of 7 yards to the DAY 26

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.85

Isaac Stopke run for a loss of 3 yards to the DAY 29

2nd & 13Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.22

Chance Harris run for a loss of 2 yards to the DAY 31

3rd & 15Rush-13 ydsPPA -2.39

Carter Cravens run for a loss of 13 yards to the DAY 44

4th & 28Pass Reception+33 ydsPPA +4.65

Carter Cravens pass complete to Nate Garnett for 33 yds to the DAY 11 for a 1ST down

Situational Analysis

Morehead State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
48%
21 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
0%
3 plays
67%
3 plays
14%
7 plays
25%
4 plays
3rd
50%
2 plays
20%
5 plays
67%
3 plays
25%
4 plays
4th
100%
1 play

Dayton

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
21%
24 plays
0%
2 plays
2nd
0%
2 plays
67%
3 plays
27%
15 plays
0%
3 plays
3rd
50%
2 plays
50%
6 plays
50%
4 plays
33%
3 plays
4th
100%
1 play
0%
1 play
100%
1 play