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← Back to GamesOct 5, 2024Week 6
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Butler by 18.4

Home Win Probability

Butler 87%

Market (ESPN Bet)

Butler -14.5

Edge: Butler -14.5 (3.9 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 5, 2024

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Morehead State
00066
Butler
71371340

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428427-014-027-033-033-6
ButlerMorehead State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20MSBUTMSBUTMSBUTMSBUTMSBUTMSBUTMSBUTMSMISS1160ydPUNT37ydPUNT45ydTD1070ydPUNT532ydTD497ydPUNT517ydTD1286ydEND1-7ydPUNT1029ydPUNT3-1ydTD663ydMISS1065ydTD795ydTD677yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Morehead State and Butler
StatisticMorehead StateButler
Passing13-1813-15
Pass Yards134190
Rush Yards114222
Total Yards248412
Turnovers00
3rd Down1-87-10
Penalties8-673-40
Possession25:5327:11

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Morehead State
passing
Carter Cravens
13/18, 134 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Isaac Stopke
12 CAR, 67 YDS
receiving
Nate Garnett
4 REC, 89 YDS
Butler
passing
Reagan Andrew
11/12, 172 YDS, 2 TD
rushing
Ershod Jasey II
11 CAR, 76 YDS
receiving
Ethan Loss
1 REC, 71 YDS

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.22

Isaac Stopke run for 14 yds to the MORE 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Isaac Stopke run for 5 yds to the MORE 44

2nd & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.94

Isaac Stopke run for 1 yd to the MORE 45

3rd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.35

James Louis run for 3 yds to the MORE 48

4th & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +2.19

Carter Cravens run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.39

Isaac Stopke run for 3 yds to the BUT 47

2nd & 7Pass Reception+30 ydsPPA +1.65

Carter Cravens pass complete to Nate Garnett for 30 yds to the BUT 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.19

James Louis run for 2 yds to the BUT 15

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.36

Carter Cravens pass incomplete

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.52

Carter Cravens pass incomplete

4th & 8Field Goal Missed+32 yds

Thomas Schwartz V 32 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.29

Joey Suchy run for 6 yds to the BUT 26

2nd & 4Sack-1 ydsPPA -0.81

Nick Howard sacked by Jackson Benjamin and Noah Benza for a loss of 1 yard to the BUT 25

3rd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.19

Reagan Andrew run for 2 yds to the BUT 27

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Ryan Short punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Ryan Upp at the MORE 32

1st & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +1.42

Isaac Stopke run for 15 yds to the MORE 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.91

Isaac Stopke run for 1 yd to the MORE 48

2nd & 9Sack-11 ydsPPA -2.15

Carter Cravens sacked by Jack Burch for a loss of 11 yards to the MORE 37

3rd & 20Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.14

Carter Cravens pass incomplete

4th & 20Punt0 yds

Kip Warren punt for 33 yds

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.94

Ershod Jasey II run for 10 yds to the BUT 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Reagan Andrew run for 3 yds to the BUT 43

2nd & 7Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.50

Reagan Andrew pass complete to Billy Dozier for 9 yds to the MORE 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +0.75

Ershod Jasey II run for 14 yds to the MORE 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Nick Howard run for 4 yds to the MORE 30

2nd & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Ershod Jasey II run for 5 yds to the MORE 25

3rd & 1Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.39

Nick Howard run for 13 yds to the MORE 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.30

Nick Howard run for 7 yds to the MORE 5

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.24

Nick Howard run for 2 yds to the MORE 3

3rd & 1Rushing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +2.47

Reagan Andrew run for 3 yds for a TD (Ryan Short KICK)

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.05

James Louis run for 4 yds to the MORE 14

2nd & 6Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +1.41

Carter Cravens pass complete to Nate Garnett for 19 yds to the MORE 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.23

James Louis run for a loss of 2 yards to the MORE 31

2nd & 12Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.18

James Louis run for 11 yds to the MORE 42

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.96

Isaac Stopke run for no gain to the MORE 42

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Kip Warren punt for 55 yds

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Billy Dozier run for 4 yds to the BUT 7

2nd & 6Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +0.84

Reagan Andrew pass complete to Luke Wooten for 17 yds to the BUT 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+71 ydsPPA +4.26

Reagan Andrew pass complete to Ethan Loss for 71 yds to the MORE 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Rushing Touchdown+5 ydsPPA +1.88

Billy Dozier run for 5 yds for a TD (Ryan Short KICK)

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Isaac Stopke run for 5 yds to the MORE 32

2nd & 5Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.18

Isaac Stopke run for 9 yds to the MORE 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.92

Carter Cravens pass complete to Ryan Upp for 1 yd to the MORE 42

2nd & 9Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.36

Carter Cravens pass complete to James Louis for 3 yds to the MORE 45

3rd & 6Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -0.84

Carter Cravens pass complete to James Louis for a loss of 1 yard to the MORE 44

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Kip Warren punt for 42 yds

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Nick Howard run for 4 yds to the BUT 18

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.39

Reagan Andrew pass incomplete

3rd & 6Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.59

Reagan Andrew pass complete to Derek Allen Jr. for 14 yds to the BUT 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.58

Joey Suchy run for 2 yds to the BUT 34

2nd & 8Penalty+15 yds

(04:29) ANDREW, Reagan pass deep to the right incomplete intended for WOOTEN, Luke thrown to the MSU42, clock 04:25. PENALTY MSU Pass Interference on MCCALL, Jihad enforced 15 yards to the BU49 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Ershod Jasey II run for 5 yds to the MORE 46

2nd & 5Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.40

Ershod Jasey II run for a loss of 1 yard to the MORE 47

3rd & 6Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +1.98

Reagan Andrew pass complete to Joey Suchy for 6 yds to the MORE 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.65

Reagan Andrew pass complete to Luka Popovic for 8 yds to the MORE 33

2nd & 2Rush+6 ydsPPA -0.16

Reagan Andrew run for 6 yds to the MORE 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.04

Ershod Jasey II run for a loss of 4 yards to the MORE 31

2nd & 14Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.48

Nick Howard run for 2 yds to the MORE 29

3rd & 12Penalty+15 yds

(00:35) ANDREW, Reagan pass deep to the right incomplete intended for LOSS, Ethan thrown to the MSU0, clock 00:30. PENALTY MSU Personal Foul on SHAFFNER, Kenneth enforced 15 yards from the MSU29 to the MSU14 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+14 ydsPPA +2.55

Reagan Andrew pass complete to William Enneking for 14 yds for a TD Morehead State Penalty, Offsides (Richard Sweeney III) to the MORE 1 Timeout Butler, clock 00:24 (Two-Point Conversion failed)

0th & 3Penalty+2 yds

Morehead State Penalty, Offsides (Richard Sweeney III) to the MORE 1

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Morehead State Penalty, Delay Of Game (Carter Cravens) to the MORE 14

1st & 15Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.28

(00:19) Kneel down by CRAVENS, Carter at MSU12 (team loss of 2), clock 00:12.

0th & 15End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.15

Billy Dozier run for 3 yds to the BUT 13

2nd & 7Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.17

Nick Howard pass complete to Derek Allen Jr. for 6 yds to the BUT 19

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.50

Nick Howard run for 3 yds to the BUT 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.61

Nick Howard pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.13

Billy Dozier run for 3 yds to the BUT 25

3rd & 7Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.11

Reagan Andrew pass complete to Luke Wooten for 6 yds to the BUT 31

4th & 1Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.75

Reagan Andrew run for 5 yds to the BUT 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Joey Suchy run for 4 yds to the BUT 40

2nd & 6Pass Reception-2 ydsPPA -1.29

Reagan Andrew pass complete to Joey Audia for a loss of 2 yards to the BUT 38

3rd & 8Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.37

Reagan Andrew run for 1 yd to the BUT 39

4th & 7Punt+15 yds

Ryan Short punt for 39 yds , Ryan Upp returns for 15 yds to the MORE 37

1st & 10Penalty-15 yds

(09:28) CRAVENS, Carter pass short to the left complete for 7 yards to UPP, Ryan caught at the MSU41 and advanced to the MSU44 (MASON, Will), clock 09:22. PENALTY MSU Pass Interference on GREEN, Trevion enforced 15 yards to the MSU22 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 25Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.14

Carter Cravens pass incomplete

2nd & 25Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.06

Carter Cravens pass complete to Isaac Stopke for no gain to the MORE 22

3rd & 25Rush+14 ydsPPA +0.19

Isaac Stopke run for 14 yds to the MORE 36

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Kip Warren punt for 27 yds, downed at the BUT 37

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.04

Ershod Jasey II run for 11 yds to the BUT 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Ershod Jasey II run for 5 yds to the MORE 47

2nd & 5Rush0 ydsPPA -1.17

Nick Howard run for no gain to the MORE 47

3rd & 5Rush+14 ydsPPA +2.17

Ershod Jasey II run for 14 yds to the MORE 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.54

Billy Dozier run for 8 yds to the MORE 25

2nd & 2Passing Touchdown+25 ydsPPA +2.36

Reagan Andrew pass complete to Ershod Jasey II for 25 yds for a TD (Ryan Short KICK)

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.84

James Louis run for 10 yds to the MORE 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Carter Cravens pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Carter Cravens run for 4 yds to the MORE 39

3rd & 6Pass Reception+31 ydsPPA +3.55

Carter Cravens pass complete to Nate Garnett for 31 yds to the BUT 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.30

James Louis run for 2 yds to the BUT 28

2nd & 8Rush+20 ydsPPA +0.79

Carter Cravens run for 20 yds to the BUT 8 for a 1ST down

1st & 8Penalty-5 yds

Morehead State Penalty, Illegal Substitution (TEAM) to the BUT 13

1st & 13Rush0 ydsPPA -0.25

Isaac Stopke run for no gain to the BUT 13

2nd & 13Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.18

Carter Cravens pass complete to Ryan Upp for 2 yds to the BUT 11

3rd & 11Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.10

Carter Cravens pass complete to Trevon Kleint for 6 yds to the BUT 5

4th & 5Penalty-5 yds

(13:32) CRAVENS, Carter pass short to the right complete for 5 yards to GARNETT JR., Nathan caught at the BU0 and advanced to the BU0, TOUCHDOWN MSU, score nullified by penalty, clock 13:24 (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY MSU Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on SPEARS, Jaxsen enforced 5 yards from the BU5 to the BU10 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

4th & 10Blocked Field Goal+27 yds

Thomas Schwartz V 27 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.38

Ershod Jasey II run for 12 yds to the BUT 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Reagan Andrew run for 5 yds to the BUT 22

2nd & 5Rush+33 ydsPPA +2.98

Joey Suchy run for 33 yds to the MORE 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Reagan Andrew pass complete to Drew Cassens for 4 yds to the MORE 41

2nd & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Ershod Jasey II run for 5 yds to the MORE 36

3rd & 1Rush+19 ydsPPA +0.92

Nick Howard run for 19 yds to the MORE 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+5 yds

Morehead State Penalty, Offsides (TEAM) to the MORE 12

1st & 5Passing Touchdown+12 ydsPPA +1.94

Nick Howard pass complete to Trevon Brown for 12 yds for a TD (Ryan Short PAT MISSED)

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.87

Carter Cravens pass complete to Ryan Upp for 8 yds to the MORE 31

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.67

Carter Cravens pass complete to Ryan Upp for 2 yds to the MORE 48

2nd & 8Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.51

Carter Cravens pass complete to Nate Garnett for 9 yds to the BUT 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

Butler Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Frenchi Mack II) to the BUT 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.04

James Louis run for 4 yds to the BUT 24

2nd & 6Passing Touchdown+24 ydsPPA +2.81

Carter Cravens pass complete to Ryan Upp for 24 yds for a TD (Thomas Schwartz V PAT MISSED)

Situational Analysis

Morehead State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
38%
16 plays
0%
3 plays
2nd
75%
4 plays
43%
7 plays
33%
3 plays
3rd
0%
1 play
33%
3 plays
0%
1 play
67%
3 plays
4th
100%
1 play

Butler

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
2 plays
57%
23 plays
2nd
33%
3 plays
44%
9 plays
67%
3 plays
0%
1 play
3rd
100%
4 plays
75%
4 plays
50%
2 plays
4th
100%
1 play