Skip to main content
← Back to GamesSep 28, 2024Week 5
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Morehead State by 8.2

Home Win Probability

Morehead State 67%

Market (ESPN Bet)

Morehead State -1

Edge: Morehead State -1 (7.2 pts)

fitted_v1 · Sep 28, 2024

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Valparaiso
23005
Morehead State
730717

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q40147-010-210-517-5
Morehead StateValparaiso

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20MSVALMSVALMSVALMSVALMSVALMSVALMSVALMSVALMSVALMSVALMSVALMSTD495ydPUNT513ydPUNT724ydPUNT35ydPUNT30ydTO533ydPUNT3-11ydPUNT33ydFG1560ydFG1260ydEND1-4ydPUNT930ydPUNT32ydDOWNS4-3ydPUNT617ydPUNT3-10ydTD333ydTO32ydPUNT3-14ydDOWNS830ydDOWNS621ydDOWNS4-17ydEND2-7yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Valparaiso and Morehead State
StatisticValparaisoMorehead State
Passing12-245-16
Pass Yards91132
Rush Yards3584
Total Yards126216
Turnovers20
3rd Down3-134-12
Penalties3-256-65
Possession30:4329:17

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Valparaiso
passing
Michael Appel Jr.
10/20, 60 YDS, 2 INT
rushing
Michael Mansaray
15 CAR, 54 YDS
receiving
Chris Gundy
5 REC, 43 YDS
Morehead State
passing
Carter Cravens
5/16, 132 YDS, 2 TD
rushing
James Louis
12 CAR, 60 YDS
receiving
Nate Garnett
2 REC, 75 YDS, 1 TD

Play-by-Play

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+10 yds

Ryan Hawk kickoff for 65 yds , Luciano Corpora-Ellis return for 10 yds to the MORE 5

1st & 10Pass Reception+50 ydsPPA +3.44

Carter Cravens pass complete to Nate Garnett for 50 yds to the VAL 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.77

Chance Harris run for 1 yd to the VAL 44

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.08

Carter Cravens pass incomplete

3rd & 9Passing Touchdown+44 ydsPPA +5.32

Carter Cravens pass complete to Bradley West for 44 yds for a TD (Thomas Schwartz V KICK)

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Michael Mansaray run for 7 yds to the VAL 32

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+19 yds

Thomas Schwartz V kickoff for 59 yds , Jeffery Vercher return for 19 yds to the VAL 25

2nd & 3Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.52

Michael Appel Jr. pass complete to Chris Gundy for 6 yds to the VAL 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Ryan Mann run for 3 yds to the VAL 41

2nd & 7Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.36

Michael Appel Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the VAL 38

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

Michael Appel Jr. pass incomplete

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Sam Johnson punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Ryan Upp at the MORE 20

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.53

Chance Harris run for 7 yds to the MORE 27

2nd & 3Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.62

Carter Cravens run for 8 yds to the MORE 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.38

Chance Harris run for 9 yds to the MORE 44

2nd & 1Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.02

Isaac Stopke run for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.11

Carter Cravens pass incomplete

2nd & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)-6 ydsPPA -1.86

Isaac Stopke run for a loss of 6 yards to the MORE 44 Isaac Stopke fumbled, recovered by MORE Carter Cravens C. Cravens return for 0 yds

3rd & 16Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.32

Carter Cravens pass incomplete

4th & 16Punt0 yds

Kip Warren punt for 36 yds

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.29

Michael Mansaray run for 6 yds to the VAL 26

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.71

Michael Appel Jr. pass incomplete

3rd & 4Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.38

Michael Mansaray run for a loss of 1 yard to the VAL 25

4th & 5Punt+11 yds

Sam Johnson punt for 51 yds , Ryan Upp returns for 11 yds to the MORE 35

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Carter Cravens pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.60

Carter Cravens pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Carter Cravens pass incomplete

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Kip Warren punt for 35 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.13

Michael Appel Jr. pass complete to Gary Givens III for 12 yds to the VAL 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.88

Ryan Mann run for 10 yds to the MORE 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.36

Michael Appel Jr. pass complete to Chris Gundy for 3 yds to the MORE 45

2nd & 7Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.00

Ryan Mann run for 8 yds to the MORE 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -3.95

Michael Appel Jr. pass intercepted Matthew McClelland return for no gain to the MORE 21

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Morehead State Penalty, Illegal Snap on SPEARS, Jaxsen enforced (Jaxsen Spears) to the MORE 16

1st & 15Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.11

Isaac Stopke run for 3 yds to the MORE 19

2nd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.20

Carter Cravens pass incomplete

3rd & 12Sack-9 ydsPPA -0.14

Carter Cravens sacked by Kevin Spelman for a loss of 9 yards to the MORE 10

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Michael Mansaray run for 3 yds to the VAL 38

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+5 yds

Thomas Schwartz V kickoff for 50 yds , Brian Thomas return for 5 yds to the VAL 35

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.87

Michael Appel Jr. pass incomplete

3rd & 7Rush0 ydsPPA -0.48

Michael Appel Jr. run for no gain to the VAL 38

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Sam Johnson punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Ryan Upp at the MORE 22

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.40

James Louis run for 2 yds to the MORE 24

2nd & 8Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.21

Carter Cravens pass complete to Ryan Upp for 6 yds to the MORE 30

3rd & 2Penalty-10 yds

Morehead State Penalty, Illegal Block (-10 Yards) to the MORE 29

3rd & 3Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +1.46

Carter Cravens pass complete to Trevion Green for 7 yds to the MORE 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Carter Cravens run for 3 yds to the MORE 39

2nd & 7Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Isaac Stopke run for 5 yds to the MORE 44

3rd & 2Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.28

Isaac Stopke run for 2 yds to the MORE 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.00

James Louis run for 14 yds to the VAL 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.40

James Louis run for 11 yds to the VAL 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.68

Isaac Stopke run for 9 yds to the VAL 20

2nd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.48

Isaac Stopke run for 2 yds to the VAL 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Carter Cravens pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.42

James Louis run for no gain to the VAL 18

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.67

Carter Cravens pass incomplete

4th & 10Field Goal Good+35 yds

Thomas Schwartz V 35 Yd Field Goal

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+5 yds

Thomas Schwartz V kickoff for 59 yds , Jeffery Vercher return for 5 yds to the VAL 11

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.37

Michael Mansaray run for no gain to the VAL 11

2nd & 10Penalty+15 yds

APPEL, Mikey pass to the right incomplete intended for GIVENS III, Gary thrown to the VALPO25. PENALTY MOR Pass Interference on NYANGWESO, Drew enforced 15 yards to the VALPO26 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.47

Michael Appel Jr. pass complete to Gary Givens III for 2 yds to the VAL 28

2nd & 8Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.22

Michael Appel Jr. pass complete to Chris Gundy for 3 yds to the VAL 31

3rd & 5Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +1.74

Michael Appel Jr. pass complete to Michael Mansaray for 7 yds to the VAL 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Michael Appel Jr. pass complete to Jack Coulson for 5 yds to the VAL 43

2nd & 5Penalty+15 yds

Morehead State Penalty, Personal Foul (Luke Bauer) to the MORE 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Michael Mansaray run for 4 yds to the MORE 30

2nd & 6Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.37

Michael Appel Jr. pass complete to Jake Vickers for 9 yds to the MORE 21 for a 1ST down

2nd & 18Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.93

Michael Appel Jr. pass incomplete

1st & 10Sack-8 ydsPPA -1.37

Michael Appel Jr. sacked by Gabe Whittington and Noah Benza for a loss of 8 yards to the MORE 29

3rd & 18Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.97

Michael Appel Jr. pass incomplete

4th & 18Field Goal Good+46 yds

Ryan Hawk 46 Yd Field Goal

1st & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.02

[NHSG] Kneel down by MOR at MOR21 (team loss of 4), clock 00:00.

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.25

Michael Mansaray run for 9 yds to the VAL 34

2nd & 1Rush+5 ydsPPA -0.03

Michael Mansaray run for 5 yds to the VAL 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.24

Michael Mansaray run for 14 yds to the MORE 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.13

Michael Mansaray run for 4 yds to the MORE 43

2nd & 6Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.55

Michael Appel Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the MORE 45

3rd & 8Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +2.28

Michael Appel Jr. pass complete to Michael Mansaray for 9 yds to the MORE 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.55

Michael Mansaray run for 1 yd to the MORE 35

2nd & 9Penalty-5 yds

Valparaiso Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MORE 40

2nd & 14Penalty-5 yds

Valparaiso Penalty, False Start (Tyler Eberhart) to the MORE 45

2nd & 19Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.83

Michael Appel Jr. pass incomplete

3rd & 19Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

Michael Appel Jr. pass incomplete

4th & 19Punt0 yds

Sam Johnson punt for 44 yds, downed at the MORE 1

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.15

Carter Cravens run for 2 yds to the MORE 3

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.15

Carter Cravens pass incomplete

3rd & 8Rush0 ydsPPA -0.06

Carter Cravens run for no gain to the MORE 3

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Kip Warren punt for 32 yds

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.22

Michael Mansaray run for 3 yds to the MORE 32

2nd & 7Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.08

Michael Appel Jr. pass complete to Gary Givens III for 4 yds to the MORE 28

3rd & 3Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.25

Michael Mansaray run for a loss of 2 yards to the MORE 30

4th & 5Sack-8 ydsPPA -2.48

Michael Appel Jr. sacked by Jackson Benjamin for a loss of 8 yards to the MORE 38

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)-13 ydsPPA -2.29

Carter Cravens sacked for a loss of 13 yards to the MORE 25 Carter Cravens fumbled, recovered by MORE Carter Cravens , return for 0 yards

2nd & 23Penalty+15 yds

CRAVENS, Carter pass deep to the right incomplete intended for GARNETT JR., Nathan thrown to the VALPO45. PENALTY VALPO Pass Interference on LENDINO, Nicholas enforced 15 yards to the MOR40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.68

James Louis run for 2 yds to the MORE 42

2nd & 8Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.67

James Louis run for 9 yds to the VAL 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.62

James Louis run for 2 yds to the VAL 47

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.11

Carter Cravens pass incomplete

3rd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.55

Chance Harris run for 2 yds to the VAL 45

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Kip Warren punt for 33 yds

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.48

Chris Gundy run for a loss of 2 yards to the VAL 10

2nd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.12

Michael Appel Jr. pass incomplete

3rd & 12Sack-8 ydsPPA -0.08

Michael Appel Jr. sacked by Kylyn Macklin and Noah Benza for a loss of 8 yards to the VAL 2

4th & 20Punt+11 yds

Sam Johnson punt for 42 yds , Ryan Upp returns for 11 yds to the VAL 33

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.72

James Louis run for 9 yds to the VAL 24

2nd & 1Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.85

James Louis run for a loss of 1 yard to the VAL 25

3rd & 2Passing Touchdown+25 ydsPPA +3.03

Nate Garnett 25 Yd pass from Carter Cravens (Thomas Schwartz V Kick)

1st & 10Sack-8 ydsPPA -1.85

Michael Appel Jr. sacked by Kylyn Macklin for a loss of 8 yards to the VAL 27

2nd & 18Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.44

Ryan Mann run for 10 yds to the VAL 37

3rd & 8Pass Interception Return+17 ydsPPA -0.35

Michael Appel Jr. pass intercepted Branden Stearman return for 17 yds to the VAL 29

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)-17 ydsPPA -3.63

Antony Morris run for a loss of 17 yards to the VAL 46 fumbled, recovered by MORE Carter Cravens C. Cravens return for 0 yds

2nd & 27Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.33

James Louis run for 2 yds to the VAL 44

3rd & 25Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.30

James Louis run for 1 yd to the VAL 43

4th & 24Punt0 yds

Kip Warren punt for 43 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.87

Rowan Keefe pass complete to Chris Gundy for 12 yds to the VAL 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.37

Rowan Keefe run for 9 yds to the VAL 41

2nd & 1Sack-2 ydsPPA -1.88

Rowan Keefe sacked by Luciano Corpora-Ellis and Kylyn Macklin for a loss of 2 yards to the VAL 39

3rd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA +1.56

Michael Mansaray run for 4 yds to the VAL 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.74

Michael Mansaray run for a loss of 3 yards to the VAL 40

2nd & 13Sack-2 ydsPPA -0.78

Rowan Keefe sacked by Luciano Corpora-Ellis and Noah Benza for a loss of 2 yards to the VAL 38

3rd & 15Sack-7 ydsPPA -0.37

Rowan Keefe sacked by Luke Bauer and Gabe Whittington for a loss of 7 yards to the VAL 31

4th & 22Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +0.35

Rowan Keefe pass complete to Chris Gundy for 19 yds to the 50 yard line

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.84

Isaac Stopke run for 8 yds to the VAL 42

2nd & 2Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Isaac Stopke run for 4 yds to the VAL 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.60

Isaac Stopke run for 1 yd to the VAL 37

2nd & 9Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.60

Isaac Stopke run for 8 yds to the VAL 29

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.86

Isaac Stopke run for no gain to the VAL 29

4th & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -3.06

Carter Cravens run for no gain to the VAL 29

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.83

Rowan Keefe pass incomplete

2nd & 10Sack-10 ydsPPA -0.74

Rowan Keefe sacked by Noah Benza for a loss of 10 yards to the VAL 19

3rd & 20Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.04

Rowan Keefe pass incomplete

4th & 20Sack-7 ydsPPA +0.38

Rowan Keefe sacked by Noah Benza for a loss of 7 yards to the VAL 12

1st & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -0.56

[NHSG] Kneel down by MOR at VALPO16 (team loss of 4).

2nd & 14Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.87

[NHSG] Kneel down by MOR at VALPO19 (team loss of 3), clock 00:00.

Situational Analysis

Valparaiso

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
38%
24 plays
2nd
33%
3 plays
33%
3 plays
17%
6 plays
20%
5 plays
3rd
50%
2 plays
50%
2 plays
25%
4 plays
0%
5 plays
4th
0%
1 play
100%
2 plays

Morehead State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
36%
22 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
40%
5 plays
40%
10 plays
0%
3 plays
3rd
75%
4 plays
20%
5 plays
0%
3 plays
4th
0%
1 play