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← Back to GamesNov 9, 2024Week 11
DukeDuke
29
-Final
19
NC StateNC State
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Duke by 2.6

Home Win Probability

NC State 43%

Market (Bovada)

NC State -3

Edge: Duke +3 (5.6 pts)

fitted_v1 · Nov 9, 2024

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
DukeDuke
12071029
NC StateNC State
093719

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014280-20-50-123-126-1212-1212-1919-2619-29
NC StateDuke

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20DUKNSDUKNSDUKNSDUKNSDUKNSDUKNSDUKNSDUKNSDUKNSDUKNSDUKNSDUKNSDUKNSDUKNSDUKPUNT38ydSAF2-4ydPUNT518ydTO212ydFG40ydPUNT30ydTD375ydPUNT38ydPUNT3-7ydFG1054ydPUNT32ydFG857ydPUNT416ydPUNT32ydTO647ydFG10ydEND1-1ydFG1258ydTD1075ydMISS952ydPUNT3-3ydTO30ydTD320ydTD1075ydPUNT39ydPUNT3-1ydFG737ydDOWNS41ydEND210yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Duke and NC State
StatisticDukeNC State
Passing22-3116-39
Pass Yards245184
Rush Yards3184
Total Yards276268
Turnovers12
3rd Down0-93-15
Penalties7-778-79
Possession29:3330:27

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Duke
passing
Maalik Murphy
22/31, 245 YDS, 2 TD
rushing
Star Thomas
17 CAR, 36 YDS
receiving
Que'Sean Brown
5 REC, 88 YDS
defense
Chandler Rivers
0.5 TFL, 1 PD
NC State
passing
CJ Bailey
16/39, 184 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
rushing
CJ Bailey
10 CAR, 36 YDS
receiving
Justin Joly
4 REC, 52 YDS
defense
Sean Brown
0.5 TFL

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Maalik Murphy pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 1 yd to the DUKE 26

2nd & 9Rush0 ydsPPA -0.41

Maalik Murphy run for no gain to the DUKE 26

3rd & 9Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.17

Maalik Murphy pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 7 yds to the DUKE 33

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Kade Reynoldson punt for 63 yds

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.17

Hollywood Smothers run for 2 yds to the NCSU 2

2nd & 12Safety-2 ydsPPA -1.73

CJ Bailey sacked for a loss of 2 yards for a SAFETY

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+11 yds

Collin Smith kickoff for 66 yds , Sahmir Hagans return for 11 yds to the DUKE 25

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Star Thomas run for 1 yd to the DUKE 26

2nd & 9Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +2.01

Maalik Murphy pass complete to Eli Pancol for 15 yds to the DUKE 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.92

Star Thomas run for 1 yd to the DUKE 42

2nd & 9Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.55

Star Thomas run for 2 yds to the DUKE 40

3rd & 11Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.17

Maalik Murphy pass complete to Star Thomas for 3 yds to the DUKE 43

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Kade Reynoldson punt for 57 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Jordan Waters run for 4 yds to the NCSU 24

2nd & 6Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+8 ydsPPA -0.53

CJ Bailey run for 8 yds to the NCSU 32 CJ Bailey fumbled, recovered by DUKE Cameron Bergeron

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.61

Maalik Murphy pass incomplete to Sahmir Hagans

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.63

Peyton Jones run for 1 yd to the NCSU 31

3rd & 9Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.78

Peyton Jones run for 1 yd to the NCSU 32

4th & 10Field Goal Good+50 yds

Todd Pelino 50 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Hollywood Smothers run for 2 yds to the NCSU 27

2nd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.31

Hollywood Smothers run for 2 yds to the NCSU 25

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.16

CJ Bailey pass incomplete to Kevin Concepcion

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Caden Noonkester punt for 50 yds

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Star Thomas run for 1 yd to the DUKE 24

2nd & 11Pass Reception+31 ydsPPA +3.40

Maalik Murphy pass complete to Que'Sean Brown for 31 yds to the NCSU 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+45 ydsPPA +3.48

Maalik Murphy pass complete to Jordan Moore for 45 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.91

CJ Bailey pass complete to Terrell Anderson for 8 yds to the NCSU 33

2nd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.13

CJ Bailey pass incomplete to Jordan Waters

3rd & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -0.60

Jordan Waters run for no gain to the NCSU 33

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Caden Noonkester punt for 34 yds

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.79

Star Thomas run for 1 yd to the DUKE 34

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.62

Maalik Murphy pass incomplete to Jontavis Robertson

3rd & 9Sack-8 ydsPPA -0.51

Maalik Murphy sacked by Travali Price for a loss of 8 yards to the DUKE 26

4th & 17Punt+10 yds

Kade Reynoldson punt for 50 yds , Kevin Concepcion returns for 10 yds to the NCSU 34

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.99

CJ Bailey pass incomplete to Dacari Collins

2nd & 10Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +2.85

CJ Bailey pass complete to Justin Joly for 21 yds to the DUKE 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.12

CJ Bailey pass complete to Hollywood Smothers for 4 yds to the DUKE 41

2nd & 6Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.58

CJ Bailey pass complete to Justin Joly for 2 yds to the DUKE 39

3rd & 4Rush0 ydsPPA -1.09

Hollywood Smothers run for no gain to the DUKE 39

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.17

Jordan Waters run for 2 yds to the DUKE 10

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

CJ Bailey pass incomplete to Dacari Collins

3rd & 8Sack-2 ydsPPA -0.64

CJ Bailey sacked by Jaylen Stinson for a loss of 2 yards to the DUKE 12

4th & 10Field Goal Good+30 yds

Kanoah Vinesett 30 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Star Thomas run for 2 yds to the DUKE 23

2nd & 12Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.03

Star Thomas run for 5 yds to the DUKE 18

3rd & 17Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.10

Maalik Murphy pass complete to Que'Sean Brown for 9 yds to the DUKE 27

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Kade Reynoldson punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Kevin Concepcion at the NCSU 33

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.60

Kendrick Raphael run for 2 yds to the NCSU 35

2nd & 8Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.30

CJ Bailey run for 6 yds to the NCSU 41

3rd & 2Rush+15 ydsPPA +2.31

CJ Bailey run for 5 yds to the DUKE 46 for a 1ST down Duke Penalty, Defensive Holding (Eli Pancol) to the DUKE 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+26 ydsPPA +0.82

CJ Bailey pass complete to Noah Rogers for 26 yds to the DUKE 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+9 yds

(06:47) Shotgun Bailey,CJ pass incomplete short middle to Joly,Justin thrown to DUKE00 PENALTY DUKE Holding (Howard,Alex) 9 yards from DUKE18 to DUKE09, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

1st & 9Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -0.37

CJ Bailey pass complete to Keenan Jackson for a loss of 1 yard to the DUKE 10

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.28

CJ Bailey pass incomplete to Noah Rogers

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.44

CJ Bailey pass incomplete to Kevin Concepcion

4th & 10Field Goal Good+28 yds

Kanoah Vinesett 28 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+16 yds

Collin Smith kickoff for 62 yds , Sahmir Hagans return for 16 yds to the DUKE 19

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.75

Maalik Murphy pass complete to Eli Pancol for 11 yds to the DUKE 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.72

Que'Sean Brown run for 1 yd to the DUKE 31

2nd & 9Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.10

Maalik Murphy pass complete to Star Thomas for 4 yds to the DUKE 35

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.49

Maalik Murphy pass incomplete to Que'Sean Brown

4th & 5Punt+18 yds

Kade Reynoldson punt for 53 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCSU 7 , Kevin Concepcion returns for 18 yds to the NCSU 47 NC State Penalty, (8 Yards) to the NCSU 7

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.35

Jordan Waters run for 7 yds to the NCSU 14

2nd & 3Penalty-5 yds

(02:32) PENALTY NCSU False Start (Peak,Jacarrius) 5 yards from NCSU14 to NCSU09. NO PLAY.

2nd & 8Rush0 ydsPPA -0.19

Jordan Waters run for no gain to the NCSU 9

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.08

CJ Bailey pass incomplete to Kevin Concepcion

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Caden Noonkester punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Sahmir Hagans at the DUKE 43

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.92

Star Thomas run for 11 yds to the NCSU 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.03

Maalik Murphy pass incomplete to Sahmir Hagans

2nd & 10Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +1.85

Maalik Murphy pass complete to Que'Sean Brown for 20 yds to the NCSU 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.48

Star Thomas run for 8 yds to the NCSU 18

2nd & 2Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.32

Maalik Murphy pass complete to Star Thomas for 3 yds to the NCSU 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Maalik Murphy pass complete to Eli Pancol for 5 yds Eli Pancol fumbled, recovered by DUKE Tamarcus Cooley

1st & 10Field Goal Good+37 yds

Kanoah Vinesett 37 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.80

M. Murphy takes a knee

0th & 10End of Half-1 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

CJ Bailey pass incomplete to Justin Joly

2nd & 10Penalty-10 yds

(14:54) Shotgun Concepcion,KC rush middle for 18 yards gain to the DUKE47 (Robinson,Kimari; Moore,Terry) PENALTY NCSU Holding (Peak,Jacarrius) 10 yards from NCSU35 to NCSU25. NO PLAY.

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.70

Jordan Waters run for 7 yds to the NCSU 47

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.76

Jordan Waters run for 2 yds to the NCSU 49

3rd & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +0.97

Jordan Waters run for 1 yd to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+5 yds

(12:18) Shotgun Bailey,CJ pass incomplete deep left to Rogers,Noah thrown to DUKE06 PENALTY DUKE Offside (Charles,Kendy) 5 yards from DUKE50 to DUKE45. NO PLAY.

1st & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.34

CJ Bailey run for 3 yds to the DUKE 42

2nd & 2Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Kendrick Raphael run for 4 yds to the DUKE 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.78

CJ Bailey pass incomplete to Hollywood Smothers

2nd & 10Penalty+15 yds

Duke Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the DUKE 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.32

CJ Bailey pass incomplete to Dacari Collins

2nd & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.28

CJ Bailey run for 8 yds to the DUKE 7

3rd & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -0.35

Jordan Waters run for no gain to the DUKE 7

4th & 2Field Goal Good+25 yds

Kanoah Vinesett 25 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -0.80

Maalik Murphy pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for a loss of 1 yard to the DUKE 24

2nd & 11Penalty+15 yds

NC State Penalty, (15 Yards) to the DUKE 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

(08:03) No Huddle-Shotgun Thomas,Star rush middle for 1 yard loss to the DUKE45 (Fitzgerald,Bishop; Bonner,Kamal) PENALTY DUKE Holding (Parker II,Brian) 10 yards from DUKE46 to DUKE36. NO PLAY.

1st & 20Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.54

Maalik Murphy pass incomplete to Jordan Moore

2nd & 20Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +3.49

Maalik Murphy pass complete to Jordan Moore for 20 yds to the NCSU 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.75

Star Thomas run for 1 yd to the NCSU 43

2nd & 9Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +1.53

Maalik Murphy pass complete to Que'Sean Brown for 22 yds to the NCSU 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.19

Maalik Murphy pass complete to Que'Sean Brown for 6 yds to the NCSU 15

2nd & 4Rush+5 ydsPPA -0.07

Grayson Loftis run for 5 yds to the NCSU 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.30

Star Thomas run for 7 yds to the NCSU 3

2nd & 3Rushing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +2.21

Maalik Murphy run for 3 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+26 yds

Cosme Salas kickoff for 61 yds , DK Kaufman return for 26 yds to the NCSU 30

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.86

CJ Bailey pass incomplete to Kevin Concepcion

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.46

CJ Bailey pass incomplete to Keenan Jackson

3rd & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +2.74

CJ Bailey pass complete to Noah Rogers for 15 yds to the NCSU 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +1.30

CJ Bailey pass complete to Wesley Grimes for 20 yds to the DUKE 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +0.35

CJ Bailey pass complete to Justin Joly for 15 yds to the DUKE 20 for a 1ST down Duke Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Chandler Rivers) declined for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.12

Jordan Waters run for 3 yds to the DUKE 17

2nd & 7Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.31

Jordan Waters run for 1 yd to the DUKE 18

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.61

CJ Bailey pass incomplete to Hollywood Smothers

4th & 8Field Goal Missed+36 yds

Kanoah Vinesett 36 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Maalik Murphy pass incomplete to Sahmir Hagans

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.26

Maalik Murphy pass incomplete to Que'Sean Brown

3rd & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.05

Maalik Murphy pass complete to Star Thomas for 3 yds to the DUKE 17

4th & 13Punt0 yds

Kade Reynoldson punt for 53 yds

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.86

CJ Bailey pass incomplete to Kevin Concepcion

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.46

CJ Bailey pass incomplete to Kevin Concepcion

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.19

Maalik Murphy pass complete to Jordan Moore for 11 yds to the NCSU 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.32

Maalik Murphy pass incomplete to Eli Pancol

2nd & 9Passing Touchdown+9 ydsPPA +2.74

Maalik Murphy pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 9 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +1.80

CJ Bailey pass complete to Dacari Collins for 20 yds to the NCSU 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +1.09

Hollywood Smothers run for 15 yds to the DUKE 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.85

CJ Bailey pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.27

CJ Bailey pass complete to Jordan Waters for 12 yds to the DUKE 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.08

CJ Bailey pass complete to Jordan Waters for 5 yds to the DUKE 23

2nd & 5Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

CJ Bailey run for 5 yds to the DUKE 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Kevin Concepcion run for 4 yds to the DUKE 14

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

CJ Bailey pass incomplete to Keenan Jackson

3rd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.24

CJ Bailey run for 2 yds to the DUKE 16

4th & 8Passing Touchdown+16 ydsPPA +3.72

CJ Bailey pass complete to Wesley Grimes for 16 yds for a TD (Kanoah Vinesett KICK)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Star Thomas run for 1 yd to the DUKE 24

2nd & 11Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.41

Star Thomas run for 8 yds to the DUKE 32

3rd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.33

Star Thomas run for 2 yds to the DUKE 34

4th & 1Punt+9 yds

Kade Reynoldson punt for 49 yds , Kevin Concepcion returns for 9 yds to the NCSU 26

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.73

CJ Bailey pass incomplete to Wesley Grimes

2nd & 10Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -0.42

CJ Bailey pass complete to Kendrick Raphael for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSU 25

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Caden Noonkester punt for 44 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +1.60

Maalik Murphy pass complete to Eli Pancol for 17 yds to the DUKE 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.40

Maalik Murphy pass complete to Eli Pancol for 3 yds to the NCSU 49

2nd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Star Thomas run for 4 yds to the NCSU 45

3rd & 3Penalty+10 yds

(03:53) Shotgun Murphy,Maalik pass incomplete deep left to Pancol,Eli thrown to NCSU15 PENALTY NCSU Holding (White,Aydan) 10 yards from NCSU45 to NCSU35, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.69

Star Thomas run for no gain to the NCSU 35

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Star Thomas run for 3 yds to the NCSU 32

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.99

Maalik Murphy pass incomplete to Jordan Moore

4th & 7Field Goal Good+49 yds

Todd Pelino 49 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+42 yds

Cosme Salas kickoff for 62 yds , DK Kaufman return for 42 yds to the NCSU 23 NC State Penalty, (10 Yards) to the NCSU 30

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.67

CJ Bailey run for 7 yds to the NCSU 37

2nd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.15

CJ Bailey pass incomplete to Noah Rogers

3rd & 3Penalty-6 yds

PENALTY NCSU False Start 6 yards from NCSU37 to NCSU31. NO PLAY.

3rd & 9Penalty0 yds

NC State Penalty, (Yards) declined

4th & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA +0.20

CJ Bailey pass incomplete to Justin Joly

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.06

M. Murphy takes a knee

2nd & 13Penalty+15 yds

NC State Penalty, (15 Yards) to the NCSU 21 for a 1ST down

Situational Analysis

Duke

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
33%
27 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
50%
2 plays
0%
1 play
33%
12 plays
100%
4 plays
3rd
0%
1 play
0%
1 play
20%
5 plays
50%
2 plays
4th

NC State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
37%
27 plays
2nd
0%
4 plays
25%
4 plays
33%
12 plays
0%
1 play
3rd
50%
4 plays
0%
2 plays
17%
6 plays
4th
100%
2 plays