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← Back to GamesSep 28, 2024Week 5

House Prediction

Model Margin

Notre Dame by 10.1

Home Win Probability

Notre Dame 74%

Market (Bovada)

Notre Dame -6.5

Edge: Notre Dame -6.5 (3.6 pts)

fitted_v1 · Sep 28, 2024

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
LouisvilleLouisville
7701024
Notre DameNotre Dame
2130731

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014287-714-721-721-1424-1424-1731-24
Notre DameLouisville

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20LOUNDLOUNDLOUNDLOUNDLOUNDLOUNDLOUNDLOUNDLOUNDLOUNDLOUNDLOUNDLOUNDTD324ydTD1275ydTO146ydTD453ydDOWNS5-21ydTD14ydPUNT738ydTO12ydTD39ydPUNT524ydTO748ydFG46ydDOWNS1060ydEND10ydPUNT30ydPUNT4-8ydDOWNS632ydPUNT33ydPUNT745ydDOWNS1040ydFG717ydTD575ydTD1475ydPUNT3-1ydDOWNS44ydEND2-3yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Louisville and Notre Dame
StatisticLouisvilleNotre Dame
Passing24-4117-23
Pass Yards264163
Rush Yards173120
Total Yards437283
Turnovers22
3rd Down7-172-10
Penalties6-505-45
Possession32:0427:56

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Louisville
passing
Tyler Shough
24/41, 264 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Isaac Brown
13 CAR, 72 YDS
receiving
Caullin Lacy
5 REC, 71 YDS
defense
Notre Dame
passing
Riley Leonard
17/23, 163 YDS, 2 TD
rushing
Riley Leonard
13 CAR, 52 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Jaden Greathouse
4 REC, 61 YDS, 1 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+55 yds

Brock Travelstead kickoff for 55 yds , Devyn Ford return for 14 yds to the ND 24 Devyn Ford fumbled, recovered by LOU Tamarion McDonald T. McDonald return for 14 yds , return for no gain to the ND 24

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Isaac Brown run for 4 yds to the ND 20

2nd & 6Penalty-5 yds

Louisville Penalty, Illegal Substitution (Isaac Brown) to the ND 25

2nd & 11Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +0.71

Tyler Shough pass complete to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce for 15 yds to the ND 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+10 ydsPPA +2.51

Tyler Shough pass complete to Isaac Brown for 10 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Faison for 4 yds to the ND 29

2nd & 6Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.24

Riley Leonard run for 9 yds to the ND 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Jeremiyah Love run for 5 yds to the ND 43

2nd & 5Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +1.75

Riley Leonard pass complete to Jaden Greathouse for 19 yds to the LOU 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.80

Jeremiyah Love run for 9 yds to the LOU 29

2nd & 1Pass Reception-2 ydsPPA -1.15

Riley Leonard pass complete to Jeremiyah Love for a loss of 2 yards to the LOU 31

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.92

Riley Leonard pass incomplete

4th & 3Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +1.65

Riley Leonard pass complete to Jayden Thomas for 5 yds to the LOU 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Riley Leonard pass complete to Jaden Greathouse for 5 yds to the LOU 21

2nd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.16

Riley Leonard run for 3 yds to the LOU 18

3rd & 2Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.75

Riley Leonard run for 12 yds to the LOU 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Rushing Touchdown+6 ydsPPA +2.05

Jeremiyah Love run for 6 yds for a TD (Mitch Jeter KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+64 yds

Mitch Jeter kickoff for 64 yds , Isaac Brown return for 6 yds to the LOU 7 Isaac Brown fumbled, recovered by LOU return for 6 yds , return for a loss of 3 yards to the LOU 7

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+46 ydsPPA -0.13

Tyler Shough run for 46 yds to the ND 47 Tyler Shough fumbled, recovered by ND Jaiden Ausberry J. Ausberry return for 0 yds

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Riley Leonard run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 7Rush+16 ydsPPA +1.57

Jadarian Price run for 16 yds to the LOU 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.66

Jadarian Price run for no gain to the LOU 34

2nd & 10Passing Touchdown+34 ydsPPA +3.60

Riley Leonard pass complete to Jaden Greathouse for 34 yds for a TD (Mitch Jeter KICK)

1st & 10Rush+20 ydsPPA +1.80

Isaac Brown run for 20 yds to the LOU 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.93

Tyler Shough pass complete to Isaac Brown for 1 yd to the LOU 46

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.98

Tyler Shough pass incomplete

3rd & 9Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.27

Donald Chaney run for 3 yds to the LOU 49

4th & 6Fumble Recovery (Opponent)-42 ydsPPA -0.54

run for a loss of 42 yards to the LOU 4 fumbled, recovered by ND Kennedy Urlacher K. Urlacher return for 3 yds

1st & 4Rushing Touchdown+4 ydsPPA +1.69

Riley Leonard run for 4 yds for a TD (Mitch Jeter KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+16 yds

Mitch Jeter kickoff for 64 yds , Isaac Brown return for 16 yds to the LOU 17

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.55

Keyjuan Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the LOU 16

2nd & 11Pass Reception+27 ydsPPA +2.62

Tyler Shough pass complete to Ja'Corey Brooks for 27 yds to the LOU 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Keyjuan Brown run for 4 yds to the LOU 47

2nd & 6Rush+6 ydsPPA +1.02

Isaac Brown run for 6 yds to the ND 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-1 ydsPPA -1.28

Tyler Shough sacked by Jaylen Sneed for a loss of 1 yard to the ND 48

2nd & 11Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.40

Duke Watson run for 3 yds to the ND 45

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.94

Tyler Shough pass incomplete

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Brady Hodges punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Max Hurleman at the ND 7

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+2 ydsPPA -0.13

Jadarian Price run for 2 yds to the ND 9 Jadarian Price fumbled, recovered by LOU Tamarion McDonald T. McDonald return for 0 yds

1st & 9Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.01

Tyler Shough pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 4 yds to the ND 5

2nd & 5Rush0 ydsPPA -0.32

Isaac Brown run for no gain to the ND 5

3rd & 5Passing Touchdown+5 ydsPPA +2.76

Tyler Shough pass complete to Ja'Corey Brooks for 5 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+25 yds

Brock Travelstead kickoff for 63 yds , Jayden Harrison return for 25 yds to the ND 27

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.49

Riley Leonard run for 2 yds to the ND 29

2nd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.35

Jeremiyah Love run for 2 yds to the ND 31

3rd & 6Penalty0 yds

(11:20) LEONARD, Riley pass deep to the left incomplete intended for HARRISON, Jayden thrown to the LVL35, clock 11:17. PENALTY LVL Pass Interference on WATTS, Antonio declined LVL Roughing the Passer on GILLOTTE, Ashton enforced 15 yards from the UND31 to the UND46 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.94

Riley Leonard pass incomplete

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Riley Leonard pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Riley Leonard pass complete to Mitchell Evans for 5 yds to the LOU 49

4th & 5Punt+1 yds

James Rendell punt for 45 yds , Ahmari Huggins-Bruce returns for 1 yd to the LOU 5

1st & 10Rush+27 ydsPPA +1.40

Donald Chaney run for 27 yds to the LOU 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.19

Donald Chaney run for a loss of 2 yards to the LOU 30

2nd & 12Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.49

Tyler Shough pass complete to Keyjuan Brown for 8 yds to the LOU 38

3rd & 4Rush+12 ydsPPA +2.38

Keyjuan Brown run for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Tyler Shough pass complete to Chris Bell for 4 yds to the ND 46

2nd & 6Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.37

Donald Chaney run for a loss of 1 yard to the ND 47

3rd & 7Pass Interception Return+34 ydsPPA -1.65

Tyler Shough pass intercepted Xavier Watts return for 34 yds to the LOU 36

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Riley Leonard pass complete to Jeremiyah Love for 5 yds to the LOU 31

2nd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Jeremiyah Love run for 4 yds to the LOU 27

3rd & 1Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.40

Jeremiyah Love run for a loss of 3 yards to the LOU 30

4th & 4Field Goal Good+48 yds

Mitch Jeter 48 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Tyler Shough pass complete to Isaac Brown for 3 yds to the LOU 28

2nd & 7Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.62

Isaac Brown run for 12 yds to the LOU 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +1.75

Tyler Shough pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 24 yds to the ND 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.58

Isaac Brown run for 8 yds to the ND 28

2nd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.56

Isaac Brown run for 1 yd to the ND 27

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.32

Isaac Brown run for 3 yds to the ND 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.43

Tyler Shough pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.58

Tyler Shough pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.56

Tyler Shough pass complete to Chris Bell for 9 yds to the ND 15

4th & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -3.87

Donald Chaney run for no gain to the ND 15

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.44

Jeremiyah Love run for no gain to the ND 15

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Isaac Brown run for no gain to the LOU 25

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Tyler Shough pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.16

Tyler Shough pass incomplete

4th & 10Punt+7 yds

Brady Hodges punt for 38 yds , Max Hurleman returns for 7 yds to the ND 44

1st & 10Pass Reception-5 ydsPPA -2.08

Riley Leonard pass complete to Beaux Collins for 5 yds to the ND 49 Notre Dame Penalty, Offensive Holding (Mitchell Evans) to the ND 39

1st & 15Penalty-10 yds

(13:47) QB Keeper LEONARD, Riley rush to the right for no gain to the UND39 (GILLOTTE, Ashton), clock 13:43. PENALTY UND Illegal Block in the Back on MITCHELL, Kris enforced 10 yards from the UND39 to the UND29 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 25Pass Reception-5 ydsPPA -0.34

Riley Leonard pass complete to Jeremiyah Love for a loss of 5 yards to the ND 24

2nd & 30Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.20

Aneyas Williams run for 12 yds to the ND 36

3rd & 18Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.15

Riley Leonard pass incomplete

4th & 18Punt0 yds

James Rendell punt for 48 yds, downed at the LOU 16

1st & 10Pass Reception-3 ydsPPA -0.62

Tyler Shough pass complete to Caullin Lacy for a loss of 3 yards to the LOU 13

2nd & 13Pass Reception+27 ydsPPA +2.44

Tyler Shough pass complete to Jamari Johnson for 27 yds to the LOU 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Keyjuan Brown run for 5 yds to the LOU 45

2nd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.44

Keyjuan Brown run for 3 yds to the LOU 48

3rd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.06

Tyler Shough pass incomplete

4th & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.85

Tyler Shough pass incomplete

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Riley Leonard pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.40

Jeremiyah Love run for 3 yds to the LOU 45

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.97

Riley Leonard pass incomplete

4th & 7Punt0 yds

James Rendell punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Ahmari Huggins-Bruce at the LOU 8

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

Notre Dame Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the LOU 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Caullin Lacy run for 1 yd to the LOU 26

2nd & 9Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.27

Tyler Shough pass complete to Donald Chaney for 2 yds to the LOU 28

3rd & 7Pass Reception+34 ydsPPA +3.84

Tyler Shough pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 34 yds to the ND 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.42

Donald Chaney run for 2 yds to the ND 36

2nd & 8Penalty0 yds

(06:04) SHOUGH, Tyler pass deep to the left incomplete intended for LACY, Caullin thrown to the UND5, clock 06:01. PENALTY UND Pass Interference on HEARD II, Rod LVL Pass Interference on LACY, Caullin , Offsetting penalties [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

2nd & 8Sack-6 ydsPPA -2.21

Tyler Shough sacked by Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa for a loss of 6 yards to the ND 42

3rd & 14Penalty-5 yds

Louisville Penalty, False Start (Monroe Mills) to the ND 47

3rd & 19Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.45

Tyler Shough pass incomplete

4th & 19Punt0 yds

Brady Hodges punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Max Hurleman at the ND 16

1st & 10Penalty+5 yds

(04:45) LOVE, Jeremiyah rush to the right for no gain to the UND16 (MCDONALD, Tamarion), clock 04:41. PENALTY Before the snap, LVL Illegal Substitution enforced 5 yards from the UND16 to the UND21. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 5Rush0 ydsPPA -1.04

Jeremiyah Love run for no gain to the ND 21

2nd & 5Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.16

Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Faison for 13 yds to the ND 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.40

Jeremiyah Love run for 3 yds to the ND 37

2nd & 7Penalty-5 yds

Notre Dame Penalty, False Start (Rocco Spindler) to the ND 32

2nd & 12Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.53

Riley Leonard run for 8 yds to the ND 40

3rd & 4Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.29

Riley Leonard pass complete to Jaden Greathouse for 3 yds to the ND 43

4th & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA +2.28

Riley Leonard run for 4 yds to the ND 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception-3 ydsPPA -1.80

Riley Leonard pass complete to Jeremiyah Love for a loss of 3 yards to the ND 44

2nd & 13Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.26

Riley Leonard pass complete to Mitchell Evans for 6 yds to the 50 yard line

3rd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Aneyas Williams run for 4 yds to the LOU 46

4th & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -1.22

Riley Leonard run for 2 yds to the LOU 44

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Isaac Brown run for 5 yds to the LOU 49

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.20

Tyler Shough pass incomplete

3rd & 5Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +2.17

Tyler Shough pass complete to Mark Redman for 9 yds to the ND 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.29

Tyler Shough pass complete to Ja'Corey Brooks for 3 yds to the ND 39

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.99

Tyler Shough pass incomplete

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.05

Tyler Shough pass incomplete

4th & 7Field Goal Good+56 yds

Brock Travelstead 56 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Notre Dame Penalty, False Start (Rocco Spindler) to the ND 20

1st & 15Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.15

Riley Leonard run for 6 yds to the ND 26

2nd & 9Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.18

Riley Leonard pass complete to Mitchell Evans for 3 yds to the ND 29

3rd & 6Pass Reception+34 ydsPPA +3.79

Riley Leonard pass complete to Jayden Harrison for 34 yds to the LOU 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Jeremiyah Love run for 5 yds to the LOU 32

2nd & 5Passing Touchdown+32 ydsPPA +2.97

Riley Leonard pass complete to Jeremiyah Love for 32 yds for a TD (Mitch Jeter KICK)

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Isaac Brown run for 5 yds to the LOU 30

2nd & 5Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.84

Tyler Shough pass complete to Jamari Johnson for 6 yds to the LOU 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.14

Tyler Shough pass complete to Ja'Corey Brooks for 12 yds to the LOU 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.14

Tyler Shough pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.32

Donald Chaney run for 6 yds to the ND 46

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Tyler Shough pass incomplete

4th & 4Rush+6 ydsPPA +2.71

Tyler Shough run for 6 yds to the ND 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception-6 ydsPPA -2.15

Tyler Shough pass complete to Isaac Brown for 9 yds to the ND 31 Louisville Penalty, Personal Foul (Jamari Johnson) to the ND 46

1st & 16Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.03

Tyler Shough pass incomplete

2nd & 16Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.37

Tyler Shough pass complete to Keyjuan Brown for 11 yds to the ND 35

3rd & 5Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.23

Tyler Shough pass complete to Chris Bell for 8 yds to the ND 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-9 ydsPPA -1.98

Tyler Shough sacked by Rylie Mills and Junior Tuihalamaka for a loss of 9 yards to the ND 36

2nd & 19Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.28

Tyler Shough pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 12 yds to the ND 24

3rd & 7Passing Touchdown+24 ydsPPA +3.44

Tyler Shough pass complete to Ja'Corey Brooks for 24 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Riley Leonard run for 3 yds to the ND 28

2nd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.36

Riley Leonard run for 2 yds to the ND 30

3rd & 5Sack-6 ydsPPA -0.57

Riley Leonard sacked by TJ Quinn for a loss of 6 yards to the ND 24

4th & 11Punt+5 yds

James Rendell punt for 36 yds , Ahmari Huggins-Bruce returns for 5 yds to the LOU 45

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Isaac Brown run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Isaac Brown run for 3 yds to the ND 47

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.92

Donald Chaney run for 1 yd to the ND 46

4th & 1Penalty-5 yds

Louisville Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the LOU 49

4th & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.54

Tyler Shough pass incomplete

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.33

(00:45) [NH] Kneel down by LEONARD, Riley at LVL50 (team loss of 1), clock 00:37.

2nd & 11Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.31

(00:23) [NH] Kneel down by LEONARD, Riley at UND48 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.

Situational Analysis

Louisville

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
34%
29 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
0%
1 play
29%
7 plays
25%
8 plays
86%
7 plays
3rd
33%
3 plays
80%
5 plays
38%
8 plays
0%
1 play
4th
0%
2 plays
33%
3 plays

Notre Dame

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
67%
3 plays
28%
18 plays
50%
2 plays
2nd
0%
1 play
67%
6 plays
29%
7 plays
75%
4 plays
3rd
33%
3 plays
33%
3 plays
33%
3 plays
0%
1 play
4th
67%
3 plays