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← Back to GamesAug 31, 2024Week 1

House Prediction

Model Margin

Michigan by 24.4

Home Win Probability

Michigan 91%

Market (Bovada)

Michigan -21

Edge: Michigan -21 (3.4 pts)

fitted_v1 · Aug 31, 2024

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Fresno StateFresno State
030710
MichiganMichigan
7331730

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014287-010-313-316-323-1030-10
MichiganFresno State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20FSMICFSMICFSMICFSMICFSMICFSMICFSMICFSMICFSMICFSMICFSFSMICTO34ydTD531ydPUNT618ydPUNT516ydPUNT34ydTO10ydPUNT512ydPUNT39ydPUNT412ydPUNT3-10ydFG838ydFG1147ydEND19ydFG1038ydPUNT724ydPUNT934ydPUNT32ydFG926ydTD775ydTD775ydTD565ydPUNT721ydEND1-3yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Fresno State and Michigan
StatisticFresno StateMichigan
Passing22-3616-27
Pass Yards235121
Rush Yards9148
Total Yards244269
Turnovers21
3rd Down2-114-11
Penalties3-195-70
Possession26:0034:00

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Fresno State
passing
Mikey Keene
22/36, 235 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
rushing
Malik Sherrod
14 CAR, 24 YDS
receiving
Jalen Moss
6 REC, 97 YDS
defense
Michigan
passing
Davis Warren
15/25, 118 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Kalel Mullings
15 CAR, 92 YDS
receiving
Colston Loveland
8 REC, 87 YDS, 1 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Elijah Gilliam run for 1 yd to the FRES 26

2nd & 9Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.18

Mikey Keene pass complete to Jalen Moss for 3 yds to the FRES 29

3rd & 6Pass Interception Return+5 ydsPPA -0.16

Mikey Keene pass intercepted Zeke Berry return for 5 yds to the FRES 31

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.31

Donovan Edwards run for 2 yds to the FRES 29

2nd & 8Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.58

Davis Warren pass complete to Colston Loveland for 13 yds to the FRES 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.62

Semaj Morgan run for 9 yds to the FRES 7

1st & 3Rush0 ydsPPA -0.75

Donovan Edwards run for no gain to the FRES 3

2nd & 3Passing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +2.21

Alex Orji pass complete to Donovan Edwards for 3 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Malik Sherrod run for 2 yds to the FRES 27

2nd & 8Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.08

Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for 4 yds to the FRES 31

3rd & 4Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +2.77

Mikey Keene pass complete to Jalen Moss for 19 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.11

Mikey Keene pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.83

Malik Sherrod run for 1 yd to the MICH 49

3rd & 9Sack-8 ydsPPA -1.39

Mikey Keene sacked by Josaiah Stewart for a loss of 8 yards to the FRES 43

4th & 17Punt+10 yds

Clay Lawrence punt for 40 yds , Semaj Morgan returns for 10 yds to the MICH 27

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.95

Kalel Mullings run for 8 yds to the MICH 35

2nd & 2Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.23

Kalel Mullings run for 5 yds to the MICH 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -1.12

Davis Warren pass complete to Semaj Morgan for no gain to the MICH 40

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.76

Kalel Mullings run for no gain to the MICH 40

3rd & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.18

Davis Warren pass complete to Tyler Morris for 3 yds to the MICH 43

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Tommy Doman punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jalen Moss at the FRES 20

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.53

Mikey Keene pass complete to Raylen Sharpe for 7 yds to the FRES 27

2nd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.83

Mikey Keene pass incomplete

3rd & 3Pass Reception-3 ydsPPA -0.53

Mikey Keene pass complete to Elijah Gilliam for a loss of 3 yards to the FRES 24

4th & 6Punt+22 yds

Clay Lawrence punt for 41 yds , Semaj Morgan returns for 22 yds to the FRES 43

1st & 10Pass Interception Return+33 ydsPPA -3.65

Davis Warren pass intercepted Cam Lockridge return for 33 yds to the FRES 35

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Malik Sherrod run for 3 yds to the FRES 38

2nd & 7Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.46

Malik Sherrod run for 8 yds to the FRES 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.92

Malik Sherrod run for 1 yd to the FRES 47

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Mikey Keene pass incomplete

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.65

Mikey Keene pass incomplete

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Clay Lawrence punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Semaj Morgan at the MICH 13

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Donovan Edwards run for 4 yds to the MICH 17

2nd & 6Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Davis Warren pass complete to Colston Loveland for 5 yds to the MICH 22

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.41

Kalel Mullings run for no gain to the MICH 22

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Tommy Doman punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jalen Moss at the FRES 39

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.09

Mikey Keene pass complete to Jalen Moss for 12 yds to the MICH 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.10

Elijah Gilliam run for no gain to the MICH 49

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Mikey Keene pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.74

Mikey Keene pass incomplete

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Clay Lawrence punt for 49 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Davis Warren pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.29

Donovan Edwards run for a loss of 1 yard to the MICH 19

3rd & 11Sack-9 ydsPPA -0.16

Davis Warren sacked by Ezra Christensen for a loss of 9 yards to the MICH 10

4th & 20Punt0 yds

Tommy Doman punt for 44 yds , Jalen Moss returns for no gain to the FRES 39

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.67

Malik Sherrod run for 2 yds to the FRES 41

2nd & 8Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +2.52

Mikey Keene pass complete to Jalen Moss for 23 yds to the MICH 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.40

Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for 7 yds to the MICH 29

2nd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Malik Sherrod run for 4 yds to the MICH 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.24

Malik Sherrod run for 2 yds to the MICH 23

2nd & 8Rush0 ydsPPA -0.53

Malik Sherrod run for no gain to the MICH 23

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.77

Mikey Keene pass incomplete

4th & 8Field Goal Good+41 yds

Dylan Lynch 41 yd FG GOOD

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+26 yds

Dylan Lynch kickoff for 65 yds , Kalel Mullings return for 26 yds to the MICH 26

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.61

Kalel Mullings run for 1 yd to the MICH 27

2nd & 9Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.67

Davis Warren pass complete to Kendrick Bell for 11 yds to the MICH 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Kalel Mullings run for 5 yds to the MICH 43

2nd & 5Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.83

Kalel Mullings run for 5 yds to the MICH 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Kalel Mullings run for 5 yds to the FRES 47

2nd & 5Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.85

Davis Warren pass complete to Colston Loveland for 10 yds to the FRES 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.35

Davis Warren pass complete to Colston Loveland for 12 yds to the FRES 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.68

Donovan Edwards run for a loss of 2 yards to the FRES 27

2nd & 12Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.23

Kalel Mullings run for 3 yds to the FRES 24

3rd & 9Pass Reception-3 ydsPPA -1.46

Davis Warren pass complete to Donovan Edwards for a loss of 3 yards to the FRES 27

4th & 12Field Goal Good+45 yds

Dominic Zvada 45 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.25

Elijah Gilliam run for 9 yds to the FRES 34

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+27 yds

Dylan Lynch kickoff for 65 yds , Kalel Mullings return for 27 yds to the MICH 27

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.32

Davis Warren pass complete to Colston Loveland for 3 yds to the MICH 30

2nd & 7Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.52

Alex Orji run for 1 yd to the MICH 31

3rd & 6Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +3.01

Davis Warren pass complete to Colston Loveland for 20 yds to the FRES 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.10

Davis Warren pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.32

Davis Warren pass complete to Colston Loveland for 6 yds to the FRES 43

3rd & 4Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.60

Davis Warren pass complete to Tyler Morris for 9 yds to the FRES 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.21

Donovan Edwards run for 3 yds to the FRES 31

2nd & 7Penalty-10 yds

EDWARDS, Donovan rush to the left for a gain of 10 yards to the FS21 (FOREMAN, Korey), out of bounds. PENALTY UOM Holding on PRIEBE, Josh enforced 10 yards from the FS31 to the FS41 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

2nd & 17Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.98

Davis Warren pass incomplete

3rd & 17Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.23

Kalel Mullings run for 6 yds to the FRES 35

4th & 11Field Goal Good+53 yds

Dominic Zvada 53 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Sack-8 ydsPPA -1.18

Mikey Keene sacked by Rayshaun Benny for a loss of 8 yards to the FRES 17

2nd & 18Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +2.11

Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for 19 yds to the FRES 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.04

Malik Sherrod run for no gain to the FRES 36

2nd & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +2.18

Mikey Keene pass complete to Jalen Moss for 12 yds to the FRES 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.14

Malik Sherrod run for no gain to the FRES 48

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.60

Malik Sherrod run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line

3rd & 8Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -0.92

Mikey Keene pass complete to Malik Sherrod for a loss of 1 yard to the FRES 49

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Clay Lawrence punt for 42 yds

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.28

Donovan Edwards run for 1 yd to the MICH 10

2nd & 9Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.77

Alex Orji run for 11 yds to the MICH 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.54

Donovan Edwards run for 7 yds to the MICH 28

2nd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.27

Donovan Edwards run for 4 yds to the MICH 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.93

Davis Warren pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.98

Alex Orji run for 11 yds to the MICH 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Davis Warren pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.85

Davis Warren pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.49

Davis Warren pass incomplete

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Tommy Doman punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Jalen Moss at the FRES 14

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.27

Elijah Gilliam run for 2 yds to the FRES 16

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.27

Mikey Keene pass incomplete

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.12

Mikey Keene pass incomplete

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Clay Lawrence punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Semaj Morgan at the MICH 37

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.04

Kalel Mullings run for 8 yds to the MICH 45

2nd & 2Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA +0.01

Davis Warren pass complete to Tyler Morris for 3 yds to the MICH 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Kalel Mullings run for 4 yds to the FRES 48

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Davis Warren pass incomplete

3rd & 6Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +2.13

Davis Warren pass complete to Semaj Morgan for 8 yds to the FRES 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.27

Alex Orji run for 3 yds to the FRES 37

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.93

Alex Orji pass incomplete

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.05

Davis Warren pass incomplete

4th & 7Field Goal Good+55 yds

Dominic Zvada 55 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.96

Malik Sherrod run for a loss of 3 yards to the FRES 22

2nd & 13Pass Reception+28 ydsPPA +3.19

Mikey Keene pass complete to Jalen Moss for 28 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +0.90

Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for 16 yds to the MICH 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +0.33

Mikey Keene pass complete to Nathan Acevedo for 15 yds to the MICH 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.11

Joshua Wood run for 3 yds to the MICH 16

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.38

Mikey Keene pass incomplete

3rd & 10Passing Touchdown+16 ydsPPA +3.41

Raylen Sharpe 16 Yd pass from Mikey Keene (Dylan Lynch Kick)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+21 yds

Dylan Lynch kickoff for 61 yds , Kalel Mullings return for 21 yds to the MICH 25

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Donovan Edwards run for 3 yds to the MICH 28

2nd & 7Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.27

Donovan Edwards run for 6 yds to the MICH 34

3rd & 1Rush+6 ydsPPA +1.34

Alex Orji run for 6 yds to the MICH 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+21 ydsPPA +1.62

Kalel Mullings run for 21 yds to the FRES 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +0.46

Kalel Mullings run for 15 yds to the FRES 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.19

Kalel Mullings run for 6 yds to the FRES 18

2nd & 4Passing Touchdown+18 ydsPPA +2.49

Davis Warren pass complete to Colston Loveland for 18 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Mikey Keene pass incomplete

2nd & 4Penalty+15 yds

Michigan Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (TJ Guy) to the MICH 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.10

Mikey Keene pass complete to Kamron Beachem for 10 yds to the MICH 10 for a 1ST down

2nd & 10Penalty+15 yds

KEENE, Mikey pass up the middle intercepted by PAIGE, Makari at the FS39 intended for MOSS, Jalen. Paige return for 27 yards to the FS12 (VELEZ, Osmar). PENALTY UOM Roughing the Passer on GUY, T.J. enforced 15 yards from the FS25 to the FS40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Fresno State Penalty, False Start (Braylen Nelson) to the 50 yard line

1st & 15Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.37

Mikey Keene pass complete to Malik Sherrod for 11 yds to the MICH 39

1st & 10Interception Return Touchdown+86 ydsPPA -11.49

Mikey Keene pass intercepted Will Johnson return for 86 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)

0th & 0Penalty-15 yds

Michigan Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Will Johnson) to the FRES 18

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

Michigan Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Jaishawn Barham) to the MICH 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.25

Mikey Keene pass complete to Kamron Beachem for 9 yds to the FRES 34

2nd & 1Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.23

Mikey Keene pass complete to Chedon James for 3 yds to the FRES 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Mikey Keene pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +2.43

Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for 15 yds to the MICH 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-14 ydsPPA -3.31

Mikey Keene sacked by Josaiah Stewart for a loss of 14 yards to the FRES 38

2nd & 24Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.09

Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for 6 yds to the FRES 44

3rd & 18Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.18

Malik Sherrod run for 2 yds to the FRES 46

4th & 16Punt0 yds

Clay Lawrence punt for 36 yds, downed at the MICH 18

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.68

Kneel down by WARREN, Davis at UOM15 (team loss of 3), clock 00:00.

Situational Analysis

Fresno State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
31%
26 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
0%
3 plays
31%
13 plays
100%
3 plays
3rd
0%
1 play
50%
2 plays
14%
7 plays
0%
1 play
4th

Michigan

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
37%
27 plays
2nd
100%
4 plays
80%
5 plays
55%
11 plays
0%
2 plays
3rd
50%
2 plays
100%
3 plays
0%
4 plays
50%
2 plays
4th