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← Back to GamesNov 30, 2024Week 14

House Prediction

Model Margin

Louisville by 13.1

Home Win Probability

Kentucky 22%

Market (Bovada)

Kentucky +4

Edge: Louisville -4 (9.1 pts)

fitted_v1 · Nov 30, 2024

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
LouisvilleLouisville
71314741
KentuckyKentucky
007714

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428420-70-100-207-207-3414-41
KentuckyLouisville

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20KENLOUKENLOUKENLOUKENLOUKENLOUKENLOUKENLOUKENLOULOUKENLOUKENKENLOUKENLOUKENLOUKENLOUKENTO328ydPUNT34ydPUNT33ydTD960ydPUNT510ydPUNT625ydTO520ydFG422ydPUNT30ydTD158ydPUNT30ydFG1072ydTO743ydTO415ydPUNT33ydEND10ydPUNT32ydTD773ydPUNT829ydTD16ydPUNT34ydTD660ydDOWNS614ydPUNT36ydTD395ydTD275ydTO323ydDOWNS1168ydEND221yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Louisville and Kentucky
StatisticLouisvilleKentucky
Passing9-1810-24
Pass Yards128173
Rush Yards358155
Total Yards486328
Turnovers15
3rd Down5-130-7
Penalties3-204-50
Possession35:0324:57

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Louisville
passing
Tyler Shough
9/18, 128 YDS
rushing
Isaac Brown
26 CAR, 178 YDS, 2 TD
receiving
Chris Bell
3 REC, 84 YDS
defense
Kentucky
passing
Gavin Wimsatt
4/9, 125 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Jamarion Wilcox
12 CAR, 66 YDS
receiving
Jay Maclin
3 REC, 121 YDS, 2 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+5 yds

Brock Travelstead kickoff for 43 yds , Willie Rodriguez return for 5 yds to the UK 27

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.88

Jamarion Wilcox run for a loss of 1 yard to the UK 26

2nd & 11Rush+14 ydsPPA +2.05

Jamarion Wilcox run for 14 yds to the UK 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+15 ydsPPA -2.24

Jamarion Wilcox run for 15 yds to the UK 47 Jamarion Wilcox fumbled, recovered by LOU Tamarion McDonald T. McDonald return for 8 yds

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.05

Isaac Brown run for no gain to the UK 47

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.06

Tyler Shough pass incomplete

3rd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Tyler Shough run for 4 yds to the UK 43

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Brady Hodges punt for 31 yds

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.38

Cutter Boley pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.07

Jamarion Wilcox run for 3 yds to the UK 15

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.13

Cutter Boley pass incomplete

4th & 7Punt+2 yds

Aidan Laros punt for 47 yds , Ja'Corey Brooks returns for 2 yds to the LOU 40

1st & 10Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +1.71

Tyler Shough pass complete to Chris Bell for 23 yds to the UK 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.59

Tyler Shough pass complete to Duke Watson for 8 yds to the UK 29

2nd & 2Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.24

Isaac Brown run for 4 yds to the UK 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.45

Tyler Shough pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +0.63

Isaac Brown run for 14 yds to the UK 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.45

Isaac Brown run for 8 yds to the UK 3

2nd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.39

Isaac Brown run for 1 yd to the UK 2

3rd & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +1.52

Isaac Brown run for 1 yd to the UK 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +0.94

Isaac Brown run for 1 yd for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+3 yds

Brock Travelstead kickoff for 51 yds , Demie Sumo-Karngbaye return for 3 yds to the UK 17

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.55

Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for a loss of 1 yard to the UK 16

2nd & 11Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.15

Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for 11 yds to the UK 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.77

Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for no gain to the UK 27

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.39

Cutter Boley pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.18

Cutter Boley pass incomplete

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Aidan Laros punt for 42 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.95

Tyler Shough pass complete to Chris Bell for 10 yds to the LOU 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Duke Watson run for 3 yds to the LOU 44

2nd & 7Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.48

Tyler Shough pass complete to Nate Kurisky for 9 yds to the UK 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.82

Duke Watson run for 1 yd to the UK 46

2nd & 9Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.63

Tyler Shough pass complete to Isaac Brown for 2 yds to the UK 44

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.99

Tyler Shough pass incomplete

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Brady Hodges punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Ja'Mori Maclin at the UK 15

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.96

Cutter Boley pass complete to Jamarion Wilcox for 9 yds to the UK 24

2nd & 1Rush+6 ydsPPA -0.04

Jamarion Wilcox run for 6 yds to the UK 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.36

Jamarion Wilcox run for 3 yds to the UK 33

2nd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.46

Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for 2 yds to the UK 35

3rd & 5Penalty-15 yds

Kentucky Penalty, Personal Foul (Jalen Farmer) to the UK 25

1st & 10Rush+16 ydsPPA +0.28

Isaac Brown run for 16 yds to the UK 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Isaac Brown run for 3 yds to the UK 6

2nd & 6Penalty0 yds

(13:52) SHOUGH, Tyler pass to the left complete for 6 yards to BELL, Chris caught at the UK0 and advanced to the UK0, TOUCHDOWN UL, score nullified by penalty, clock 13:43 (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY UL Illegal Touch-Pass on BELL, Chris enforced 0 yards from the UK6 to the UK6, penalty results in a loss of down [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

3rd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.09

Isaac Brown run for 3 yds to the UK 3

4th & 3Field Goal Good+20 yds

Brock Travelstead 20 yd FG GOOD

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+17 yds

Brock Travelstead kickoff for 61 yds , Demie Sumo-Karngbaye return for 17 yds to the UK 21

1st & 10Sack-7 ydsPPA -0.94

Cutter Boley sacked by Rene Konga and Dezmond Tell for a loss of 7 yards to the UK 14

2nd & 17Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.08

Cutter Boley pass incomplete

3rd & 17Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.03

Cutter Boley pass complete to Barion Brown for 7 yds to the UK 21

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Aidan Laros punt for 42 yds, downed at the LOU 42

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+58 ydsPPA +4.56

Duke Watson run for 58 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+22 yds

Brock Travelstead kickoff for 58 yds , Demie Sumo-Karngbaye return for 22 yds to the UK 29

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Cutter Boley pass complete to Jamarion Wilcox for 4 yds to the UK 33

2nd & 6Pass Reception-4 ydsPPA -1.13

Cutter Boley pass complete to Jamarion Wilcox for a loss of 4 yards to the UK 29

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.21

Cutter Boley pass incomplete

4th & 10Punt+12 yds

Aidan Laros punt for 59 yds , Ja'Corey Brooks returns for 12 yds to the LOU 24

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Tyler Shough pass complete to Isaac Brown for 4 yds to the LOU 28

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.26

Isaac Brown run for 3 yds to the LOU 31

3rd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA +1.27

Tyler Shough run for 4 yds to the LOU 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Isaac Brown run for 6 yds to the LOU 41

2nd & 4Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.66

Isaac Brown run for 5 yds to the LOU 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+51 ydsPPA +2.72

Tyler Shough pass complete to Chris Bell for 51 yds to the UK 3 for a 1ST down

1st & 3Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.87

Isaac Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the UK 4

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.36

Tyler Shough pass incomplete

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Tyler Shough pass incomplete

4th & 4Field Goal Good+21 yds

Brock Travelstead 21 yd FG GOOD

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+14 yds

Nick Keller kickoff for 39 yds , Noah Matthews return for 14 yds to the UK 40

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for 5 yds to the UK 45

2nd & 5Pass Reception+29 ydsPPA +1.93

Cutter Boley pass complete to Hardley Gilmore IV for 29 yds to the LOU 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.65

Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for 9 yds to the LOU 17

2nd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.48

Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for 3 yds to the LOU 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

Cutter Boley pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.65

Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for a loss of 3 yards to the LOU 17

3rd & 13Penalty-15 yds

Kentucky Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Cutter Boley) to the LOU 41

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.00

Duke Watson run for 8 yds to the LOU 49

2nd & 2Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.41

Duke Watson run for 10 yds to the UK 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.67

Tyler Shough run for 1 yd to the UK 40

2nd & 9Fumble Recovery (Opponent)-4 ydsPPA -3.09

Chris Bell run for a loss of 4 yards to the UK 44 Chris Bell fumbled, recovered by UK Jamon Dumas-Johnson J. Dumas-Johnson return for 0 yds

1st & 10Sack-5 ydsPPA -2.08

Cutter Boley sacked by TJ Quinn and Ramon Puryear for a loss of 5 yards to the UK 39

2nd & 15Fumble Recovery (Own)+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Cutter Boley run for 5 yds to the UK 44 Cutter Boley fumbled, recovered by UK

3rd & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.23

Cutter Boley pass complete to Demie Sumo-Karngbaye for 3 yds to the UK 47

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Aidan Laros punt for 52 yds, downed at the LOU 1

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.24

Tyler Shough pass incomplete

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+26 yds

Aidan Laros kickoff for 60 yds , Duke Watson return for 26 yds to the LOU 31

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.89

Tyler Shough pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -0.70

Isaac Brown run for a loss of 4 yards to the LOU 27

3rd & 14Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.05

Tyler Shough pass complete to Isaac Brown for 6 yds to the LOU 33

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Brady Hodges punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Ja'Mori Maclin at the UK 27

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.64

Jamarion Wilcox run for 1 yd to the UK 28

2nd & 9Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.20

Jamarion Wilcox run for 3 yds to the UK 31

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.94

Jamarion Wilcox run for 13 yds to the LOU 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.67

Jamarion Wilcox run for 1 yd to the LOU 40

2nd & 9Pass Reception+34 ydsPPA +1.86

Gavin Wimsatt pass complete to Ja'Mori Maclin for 34 yds to the LOU 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.28

Jamarion Wilcox run for 2 yds to the LOU 4

2nd & 4Passing Touchdown+4 ydsPPA +2.33

Gavin Wimsatt pass complete to Ja'Mori Maclin for 4 yds for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+22 yds

Aidan Laros kickoff for 65 yds , Duke Watson return for 22 yds to the LOU 22

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.40

Tyler Shough run for 2 yds to the LOU 24

2nd & 8Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.34

Isaac Brown run for 1 yd to the LOU 25

3rd & 7Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +2.26

Tyler Shough pass complete to Kris Hughes for 15 yds to the LOU 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Keyjuan Brown run for 5 yds to the LOU 45

2nd & 5Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.10

Keyjuan Brown run for 9 yds to the UK 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.57

Keyjuan Brown run for 2 yds to the UK 44

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.09

Tyler Shough pass incomplete

3rd & 8Penalty-5 yds

Louisville Penalty, False Start (Mark Redman) to the UK 49

3rd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.61

Tyler Shough pass incomplete

4th & 13Punt+5 yds

Brady Hodges punt for 40 yds , Ja'Mori Maclin returns for 5 yds to the UK 14

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Opponent)0 ydsPPA -0.34

Jamarion Wilcox run for 6 yds Jamarion Wilcox fumbled, recovered by LOU Ramon Puryear R. Puryear return for 20 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.86

Gavin Wimsatt pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.08

Gavin Wimsatt pass complete to Barion Brown for 4 yds to the UK 34

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.42

Gavin Wimsatt pass incomplete

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Aidan Laros punt for 26 yds, downed at the LOU 40

1st & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +1.28

Isaac Brown run for 15 yds to the UK 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Isaac Brown run for 4 yds to the UK 41

2nd & 6Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.72

Isaac Brown run for 9 yds to the UK 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Isaac Brown run for 4 yds to the UK 28

2nd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Isaac Brown run for 4 yds to the UK 24

3rd & 2Rushing Touchdown+24 ydsPPA +2.99

Duke Watson run for 24 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+30 yds

Brock Travelstead kickoff for 45 yds , Barion Brown return for 30 yds to the 50 yard line

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.59

Chip Trayanum run for 7 yds to the LOU 43

2nd & 3Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.06

Chip Trayanum run for 3 yds to the LOU 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.85

Gavin Wimsatt pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.03

Gavin Wimsatt run for no gain to the LOU 40

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.98

Gavin Wimsatt pass incomplete

4th & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.96

Gavin Wimsatt run for 4 yds to the LOU 36

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Isaac Brown run for 3 yds to the LOU 39

2nd & 7Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.04

Isaac Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the LOU 38

3rd & 8Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.08

Isaac Brown run for 4 yds to the LOU 42

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Brady Hodges punt for 53 yds, downed at the UK 5

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for 4 yds to the UK 9

2nd & 6Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.42

Gavin Wimsatt run for 8 yds to the UK 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+83 ydsPPA +6.54

Gavin Wimsatt pass complete to Ja'Mori Maclin for 83 yds for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK)

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.91

Isaac Brown run for 8 yds to the LOU 33

2nd & 2Rushing Touchdown+67 ydsPPA +5.17

Isaac Brown run for 67 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK)

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Chip Trayanum run for 6 yds to the UK 31

2nd & 4Rush+17 ydsPPA +1.74

Chip Trayanum run for 17 yds to the UK 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Interception Return-3 ydsPPA -2.99

Gavin Wimsatt pass intercepted Quincy Riley return for a loss of 3 yards to the LOU 22

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.84

Maurice Turner run for 8 yds to the LOU 30

2nd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.86

Maurice Turner run for 1 yd to the LOU 31

3rd & 1Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.14

Pierce Clarkson run for 5 yds to the LOU 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.64

Travis Egan run for 2 yds to the LOU 38

2nd & 8Penalty+15 yds

Kentucky Penalty, Personal Foul (Zion Childress) to the UK 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.27

Keyjuan Brown run for 3 yds to the UK 37

2nd & 7Rush+18 ydsPPA +0.85

Maurice Turner run for 18 yds to the UK 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.45

Maurice Turner run for a loss of 1 yard to the UK 20

2nd & 11Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.36

Maurice Turner run for 1 yd to the UK 19

3rd & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.44

Pierce Clarkson run for 9 yds to the UK 10

4th & 1Penalty0 yds

Kentucky Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Yards) to the UK 10

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +0.65

Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for 14 yds to the UK 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.59

Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for 7 yds to the UK 31

Situational Analysis

Louisville

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
50%
2 plays
43%
30 plays
2nd
40%
5 plays
50%
6 plays
30%
10 plays
0%
1 play
3rd
100%
4 plays
0%
2 plays
40%
5 plays
50%
2 plays
4th

Kentucky

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
35%
26 plays
2nd
33%
3 plays
80%
5 plays
13%
8 plays
75%
4 plays
3rd
0%
1 play
0%
5 plays
100%
1 play
4th
0%
1 play