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← Back to GamesSep 7, 2024Week 2

House Prediction

Model Margin

NC State by 1.2

Home Win Probability

NC State 45%

Market (Bovada)

NC State +8.5

Edge: NC State +8.5 (9.7 pts)

fitted_v1 · Sep 7, 2024

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
TennesseeTennessee
713171451
NC StateNC State
037010

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q40142842560-73-73-173-273-3010-4410-51
NC StateTennessee

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20NSTENNSTENNSTENNSTENNSNSTENTENNSTENNSTENNSTENTENNSTENNSTENNSTENPUNT1229ydPUNT734ydPUNT3-1ydTD962ydPUNT3-7ydTO437ydFG640ydFG761ydTD559ydPUNT37ydEND618ydTD1075ydTO410ydFG45ydDOWNS49ydTD334ydTO1-1ydTD410ydTD560ydDOWNS49ydTD534ydPUNT3-9ydMISS45ydPUNT39ydEND35yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Tennessee and NC State
StatisticTennesseeNC State
Passing16-2315-22
Pass Yards211104
Rush Yards24939
Total Yards460143
Turnovers23
3rd Down7-143-12
Penalties7-706-52
Possession31:2828:32

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Tennessee
passing
Nico Iamaleava
16/23, 211 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
rushing
Dylan Sampson
20 CAR, 132 YDS, 2 TD
receiving
Squirrel White
2 REC, 67 YDS
defense
NC State
passing
Grayson McCall
15/22, 104 YDS, 1 INT
rushing
Daylan Smothers
6 CAR, 25 YDS
receiving
Kevin Concepcion
5 REC, 53 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Grayson McCall pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 7 yds to the NCSU 32

2nd & 3Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.37

Jordan Waters run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCSU 29

3rd & 6Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +1.70

Grayson McCall pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 7 yds to the NCSU 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Grayson McCall pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 6 yds to the NCSU 42

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.18

Grayson McCall pass incomplete

3rd & 4Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +1.92

Grayson McCall pass complete to Dacari Collins for 6 yds to the NCSU 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Grayson McCall pass complete to Hollywood Smothers for 4 yds to the TENN 48

2nd & 6Penalty+5 yds

Tennessee Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the TENN 43

2nd & 1Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.97

Jordan Waters run for a loss of 3 yards to the TENN 46

3rd & 4Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +1.69

Grayson McCall pass complete to Dacari Collins for 7 yds to the TENN 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.81

Grayson McCall pass incomplete

2nd & 10Sack-7 ydsPPA -2.37

Grayson McCall sacked by Omarr Norman-Lott for a loss of 7 yards to the TENN 46

3rd & 17Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.55

Grayson McCall pass incomplete

4th & 17Punt0 yds

Caden Noonkester punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TENN 15

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.19

Dylan Sampson run for 3 yds to the TENN 18

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.34

Nico Iamaleava pass incomplete

3rd & 7Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.45

Nico Iamaleava run for 12 yds to the TENN 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.13

Dylan Sampson run for 12 yds to the TENN 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Nico Iamaleava run for 3 yds to the TENN 45

2nd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Nico Iamaleava run for 4 yds to the TENN 49

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.02

Nico Iamaleava pass incomplete

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Jackson Ross punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Jalen Coit at the NCSU 8

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.27

Jordan Waters run for 1 yd to the NCSU 9

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.17

Grayson McCall pass incomplete

3rd & 9Penalty-4 yds

NC State Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-4 Yards) to the NCSU 5

3rd & 13Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.02

Grayson McCall run for 2 yds to the NCSU 7

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Caden Noonkester punt for 55 yds, fair catch by Squirrel White at the TENN 38

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.94

Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Bru McCoy for 10 yds to the TENN 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.36

Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Chris Brazzell II for 6 yds to the NCSU 46

2nd & 4Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.71

Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Chris Brazzell II for 12 yds to the NCSU 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.26

Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Ethan Davis for 10 yds to the NCSU 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.43

Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Chris Brazzell II for no gain to the NCSU 24

2nd & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.28

Dylan Sampson run for a loss of 4 yards to the NCSU 28

3rd & 14Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +1.87

Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Dylan Sampson for 17 yds to the NCSU 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.09

Dylan Sampson run for 3 yds to the NCSU 8

2nd & 7Rushing Touchdown+9 ydsPPA +2.62

Dylan Sampson 9 Yd Run (Max Gilbert Kick)

1st & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.02

Jordan Waters run for a loss of 4 yards to the NCSU 21

2nd & 14Penalty-5 yds

NC State Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the NCSU 16

2nd & 19Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.07

Grayson McCall pass complete to Noah Rogers for 7 yds to the NCSU 23

3rd & 12Sack-5 ydsPPA -0.16

Grayson McCall sacked by Jakobe Thomas for a loss of 5 yards to the NCSU 18

4th & 17Punt+11 yds

Caden Noonkester punt for 58 yds , Squirrel White returns for 11 yds to the TENN 29 Tennessee Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the TENN 20

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.53

Dylan Sampson run for 7 yds to the TENN 27

2nd & 3Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.40

Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Miles Kitselman for 16 yds to the TENN 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.11

Dylan Sampson run for 14 yds to the NCSU 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Interception Return+29 ydsPPA -3.65

Nico Iamaleava pass intercepted Bishop Fitzgerald return for 29 yds to the TENN 47

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

Tennessee Penalty, Personal Foul (Rickey Gibson III) to the TENN 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Jordan Waters run for 4 yds to the TENN 28

2nd & 6Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +0.38

Grayson McCall pass complete to Justin Joly for 14 yds to the TENN 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Grayson McCall pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 5 yds to the TENN 9

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Grayson McCall pass incomplete

3rd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.19

Grayson McCall run for 2 yds to the TENN 7

4th & 3Field Goal Good+24 yds

Kanoah Vinesett 24 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Tennessee Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the TENN 20

1st & 15Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.27

DeSean Bishop run for 1 yd to the TENN 21

2nd & 14Pass Reception+45 ydsPPA +4.16

Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Squirrel White for 45 yds to the NCSU 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +0.33

DeSean Bishop run for 15 yds to the NCSU 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.36

DeSean Bishop run for no gain to the NCSU 19

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.04

DeSean Bishop run for 5 yds to the NCSU 14

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.45

Nico Iamaleava pass incomplete

4th & 5Field Goal Good+32 yds

Max Gilbert 32 Yd Field Goal

1st & 10Pass Reception+28 ydsPPA +2.46

Grayson McCall pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 28 yds to the TENN 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +0.74

Hollywood Smothers run for 15 yds to the TENN 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.25

Hollywood Smothers run for 12 yds to the TENN 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Hollywood Smothers run for 4 yds to the TENN 16

2nd & 6Interception Return Touchdown+85 ydsPPA -11.36

Grayson McCall pass intercepted Will Brooks return for 85 yds for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK)

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.32

Kendrick Raphael run for no gain to the NCSU 8

2nd & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.24

Kendrick Raphael run for 8 yds to the NCSU 16

3rd & 2Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -0.31

Grayson McCall pass complete to Hollywood Smothers for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSU 15

4th & 3Punt+16 yds

Caden Noonkester punt for 45 yds , Squirrel White returns for 16 yds to the NCSU 44

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.50

Dylan Sampson run for 7 yds to the NCSU 37

2nd & 3Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.12

Dylan Sampson run for 8 yds to the NCSU 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

Tennessee Penalty, Offensive Holding (Holden Staes) to the NCSU 39

1st & 20Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -1.19

Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Dylan Sampson for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSU 40

2nd & 21Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.69

Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Kaleb Webb for 8 yds to the NCSU 32

3rd & 13Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.26

Dylan Sampson run for 6 yds to the NCSU 26

4th & 7Field Goal Good+45 yds

Max Gilbert 45 yd FG GOOD

0th & 7End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Ethan Davis for 4 yds to the TENN 29

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.27

Dylan Sampson run for 3 yds to the TENN 32

3rd & 3Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +2.92

Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Squirrel White for 22 yds to the NCSU 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.64

Dylan Sampson run for 13 yds to the NCSU 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Dylan Sampson run for 5 yds to the NCSU 28

2nd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.21

Dylan Sampson run for 3 yds to the NCSU 25

3rd & 2Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.92

Dylan Sampson run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSU 26

4th & 3Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.34

Nico Iamaleava run for 7 yds to the NCSU 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Nico Iamaleava run for 4 yds to the NCSU 15

2nd & 6Passing Touchdown+15 ydsPPA +2.63

Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Miles Kitselman for 15 yds for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK)

1st & 10Rush-5 ydsPPA -0.56

Jordan Waters run for a loss of 5 yards to the NCSU 7

2nd & 15Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +1.15

Grayson McCall pass complete to Justin Joly for 2 yds to the NCSU 9 for a 1ST down Tennessee Penalty, Personal Foul (Keenan Pili) to the NCSU 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.19

Grayson McCall pass complete to Justin Joly for 14 yds to the NCSU 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

NC State Penalty, False Start (Zeke Correll) to the NCSU 33

1st & 15Penalty-10 yds

NC State Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the NCSU 23

1st & 25Sack-1 ydsPPA -0.17

Grayson McCall sacked by Dominic Bailey for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSU 22 Grayson McCall fumbled, forced by Dominic Bailey, recovered by TENN Dominic Bailey , return for 0 yards

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.19

Dylan Sampson run for 6 yds to the NCSU 16

2nd & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.25

Dylan Sampson run for 2 yds to the NCSU 14

3rd & 2Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.82

Nico Iamaleava run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCSU 17

4th & 5Field Goal Good+36 yds

Max Gilbert 36 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception-2 ydsPPA -0.89

Grayson McCall pass complete to Hollywood Smothers for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSU 23

2nd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.25

Grayson McCall pass incomplete

3rd & 12Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.41

Grayson McCall run for 11 yds to the NCSU 34

4th & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.20

Grayson McCall run for no gain to the NCSU 34

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.21

DeSean Bishop run for 3 yds to the NCSU 31

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.75

Nico Iamaleava pass incomplete

3rd & 7Rushing Touchdown+31 ydsPPA +3.89

Nico Iamaleava run for 31 yds for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK)

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Opponent)-1 ydsPPA -0.92

Grayson McCall run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSU 24 Grayson McCall fumbled, recovered by TENN Jeremiah Telander

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.23

DeSean Bishop run for 2 yds to the NCSU 22

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.50

Nico Iamaleava pass incomplete

3rd & 8Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.87

Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Miles Kitselman for 8 yds to the NCSU 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Interception Return Touchdown+87 ydsPPA -11.45

Nico Iamaleava pass intercepted Aydan White return for 87 yds for a TD (Kanoah Vinesett KICK)

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.32

Dylan Sampson run for a loss of 1 yard to the TENN 39

2nd & 11Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.13

Dylan Sampson run for 4 yds to the TENN 43

3rd & 7Penalty-5 yds

Tennessee Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-5 Yards) to the TENN 38

3rd & 12Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +3.61

Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Dylan Sampson for 21 yds to the NCSU 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.46

Nico Iamaleava run for 7 yds to the NCSU 34

2nd & 3Rushing Touchdown+34 ydsPPA +2.78

Dylan Sampson run for 34 yds for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK)

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Jordan Waters run for 6 yds to the NCSU 31

2nd & 4Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.10

Kendrick Raphael run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSU 29

3rd & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Grayson McCall run for 5 yds to the NCSU 34

4th & 1Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.20

Grayson McCall pass complete to Justin Joly for no gain to the NCSU 34

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.35

DeSean Bishop run for 2 yds to the NCSU 32

2nd & 8Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.61

DeSean Bishop run for 8 yds to the NCSU 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.19

DeSean Bishop run for 6 yds to the NCSU 18

2nd & 4Rush0 ydsPPA -0.48

DeSean Bishop run for no gain to the NCSU 18

3rd & 4Passing Touchdown+18 ydsPPA +2.96

Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Holden Staes for 18 yds for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK)

1st & 10Rush-5 ydsPPA -1.07

Hollywood Smothers run for a loss of 5 yards to the NCSU 20

2nd & 15Rush0 ydsPPA -0.15

Hollywood Smothers run for no gain to the NCSU 20

3rd & 15Fumble Recovery (Own)-4 ydsPPA -0.09

CJ Bailey run for a loss of 4 yards to the NCSU 16 CJ Bailey fumbled, recovered by NCSU CJ Bailey

4th & 19Punt+31 yds

Caden Noonkester punt for 55 yds , Squirrel White returns for 31 yds to the NCSU 40

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Peyton Lewis run for 2 yds to the NCSU 38

2nd & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.32

Peyton Lewis run for 3 yds to the NCSU 35

3rd & 5Rush0 ydsPPA -1.04

Peyton Lewis run for no gain to the NCSU 35

4th & 5Field Goal Missed+53 yds

Max Gilbert 53 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.18

Hollywood Smothers run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSU 34

2nd & 11Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.60

Kendrick Raphael run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSU 33

3rd & 12Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.70

CJ Bailey run for 11 yds to the NCSU 44

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Caden Noonkester punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Squirrel White at the TENN 24

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.43

Khalifa Keith run for 2 yds to the TENN 26

2nd & 8Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.38

Khalifa Keith run for 1 yd to the TENN 27

3rd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.17

Khalifa Keith run for 2 yds to the TENN 29

Situational Analysis

Tennessee

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
46%
28 plays
0%
2 plays
2nd
100%
3 plays
33%
6 plays
30%
10 plays
67%
3 plays
3rd
25%
4 plays
33%
3 plays
75%
4 plays
100%
3 plays
4th
100%
1 play

NC State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
40%
20 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
0%
2 plays
20%
5 plays
33%
3 plays
40%
5 plays
3rd
0%
1 play
80%
5 plays
33%
6 plays
4th
0%
2 plays