Skip to main content
← Back to GamesSep 7, 2024Week 2

House Prediction

Model Margin

Missouri by 24.5

Home Win Probability

Missouri 95%

Market (Bovada)

Missouri -32

Edge: Buffalo +32 (7.5 pts)

fitted_v1 · Sep 7, 2024

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
BuffaloBuffalo
00000
MissouriMissouri
3217738

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428423-010-017-024-031-038-0
MissouriBuffalo

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20BUFMISBUFMISBUFMISBUFMISBUFMISBUFMISMISBUFMISBUFMISBUFMISBUFMISBUFPUNT30ydFG726ydTO515ydMISS619ydDOWNS932ydTD1064ydPUNT3-4ydTD969ydDOWNS630ydTD455ydMISS745ydMISS835ydTO832ydPUNT35ydPUNT730ydPUNT32ydTD847ydPUNT916ydPUNT923ydPUNT427ydTD1053ydEND11yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Buffalo and Missouri
StatisticBuffaloMissouri
Passing6-2034-42
Pass Yards55263
Rush Yards114255
Total Yards169518
Turnovers11
3rd Down1-129-15
Penalties2-3010-80
Possession21:3938:21

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Buffalo
passing
CJ Ogbonna
6/20, 55 YDS, 1 INT
rushing
Jacqez Barksdale
15 CAR, 67 YDS
receiving
Victor Snow
4 REC, 41 YDS
defense
Missouri
passing
Brady Cook
28/36, 228 YDS, 1 INT
rushing
Nate Noel
12 CAR, 73 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Theo Wease
13 REC, 149 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

C.J. Ogbonna run for no gain to the BUF 25

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

C.J. Ogbonna pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.16

C.J. Ogbonna pass incomplete

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Ethan Duane punt for 35 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.70

Brady Cook pass complete to Theo Wease Jr. for 7 yds to the MIZ 47

2nd & 3Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.21

Nate Noel run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.75

Nate Noel run for 12 yds to the BUF 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.42

Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for 2 yds to the BUF 36

2nd & 8Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.43

Brady Cook pass complete to Theo Wease Jr. for 7 yds to the BUF 29

3rd & 1Penalty-5 yds

Missouri Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the BUF 34

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.02

Brady Cook pass incomplete

4th & 6Field Goal Good+51 yds

Blake Craig 51 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Al-Jay Henderson run for no gain to the BUF 25

2nd & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +2.02

Al-Jay Henderson run for 15 yds to the BUF 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.12

C.J. Ogbonna pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.76

C.J. Ogbonna pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Interception Return+15 ydsPPA -0.36

C.J. Ogbonna pass intercepted Marvin Burks Jr. return for 15 yds to the MIZ 49

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Brady Cook pass complete to Theo Wease Jr. for 7 yds to the BUF 44

2nd & 3Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.35

Nate Noel run for 9 yds to the BUF 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.69

Brady Cook pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for 3 yds to the BUF 32

3rd & 7Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.99

Brady Cook pass complete to Nate Noel for no gain to the BUF 32

4th & 7Field Goal Missed+49 yds

Blake Craig 49 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

C.J. Ogbonna run for 4 yds to the BUF 36

2nd & 6Rush+15 ydsPPA +1.91

Jacqez Barksdale run for 15 yds to the MIZ 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.86

Jacqez Barksdale run for 1 yd to the MIZ 48

2nd & 9Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.64

C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Jacqez Barksdale for 2 yds to the MIZ 46

3rd & 7Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +2.12

C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Victor Snow for 7 yds to the MIZ 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.02

Jacqez Barksdale run for a loss of 1 yard to the MIZ 40

2nd & 11Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

C.J. Ogbonna run for 4 yds to the MIZ 36

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.05

C.J. Ogbonna pass incomplete

4th & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.65

C.J. Ogbonna pass incomplete

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Brady Cook pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.72

Brady Cook pass complete to Theo Wease Jr. for 8 yds to the MIZ 44

3rd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.37

Marcus Carroll run for 3 yds to the MIZ 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

(00:59) BURDEN, Luther rush to the right for a gain of 3 yards to the MIZ50 (BROWN, Solomon), out of bounds, clock 00:57. PENALTY MIZ Holding on STEPHENS, Tyler enforced 10 yards from the MIZ47 to the MIZ37 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 20Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.05

Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for 10 yds to the MIZ 47

2nd & 10Penalty-5 yds

(00:14) COOK, Brady pass up the middle complete for 13 yards to BURDEN, Luther caught at the MIZ47 and advanced to the BUF40, out of bounds, clock 00:00. PENALTY MIZ Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass enforced 5 yards from the MIZ47 to the MIZ42 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

2nd & 15Penalty+15 yds

(14:57) COOK, Brady pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for JOHNSON, Marquis broken up by PLEASANT III, Eddie at the BUF17, clock 14:54. PENALTY BUF Pass Interference on PLEASANT III, Eddie enforced 15 yards to the BUF43 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Rush+18 ydsPPA +0.65

Luther Burden III run for 18 yds to the BUF 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.48

Marcus Carroll run for 8 yds to the BUF 17

2nd & 2Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.34

Marcus Carroll run for 2 yds to the BUF 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.30

Brady Cook pass complete to Mookie Cooper for 7 yds to the BUF 8

2nd & 3Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.79

Marcus Carroll run for 5 yds to the BUF 3 for a 1ST down

1st & 3Rushing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +1.46

Luther Burden III run for 3 yds for a TD (Blake Craig KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+10 yds

Blake Craig kickoff for 53 yds , Terrance Shelton Jr. return for 10 yds to the BUF 22

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.26

Jacqez Barksdale run for 3 yds to the BUF 25

2nd & 7Rush-5 ydsPPA -0.72

Al-Jay Henderson run for a loss of 5 yards to the BUF 20

3rd & 12Sack-2 ydsPPA -0.11

C.J. Ogbonna sacked by Johnny Walker Jr. for a loss of 2 yards to the BUF 18

4th & 14Punt0 yds

Ethan Duane punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Luther Burden III at the MIZ 31

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.36

Brady Cook pass complete to Theo Wease Jr. for 9 yds to the MIZ 40

2nd & 1Rush-4 ydsPPA -2.21

Mekhi Miller run for a loss of 4 yards to the MIZ 36

3rd & 5Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +2.08

Brady Cook pass complete to Theo Wease Jr. for 8 yds to the MIZ 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.39

Nate Noel run for 6 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 4Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.74

Brady Cook pass complete to Jordon Harris for 9 yds to the BUF 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+39 ydsPPA +2.03

Brady Cook pass complete to Theo Wease Jr. for 39 yds to the BUF 2 for a 1ST down

1st & 2Penalty-5 yds

NOEL, Nate rush to the right for a gain of 1 yard to the BUF1 (PLEASANT III, Eddie), clock 07:03. PENALTY Before the snap, MIZ Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the BUF2 to the BUF7. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.01

Nate Noel run for 4 yds to the BUF 3

2nd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.41

Brady Cook pass incomplete

3rd & 3Rushing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +2.62

Brady Cook run for 3 yds for a TD (Blake Craig KICK)

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Jacqez Barksdale run for 7 yds to the BUF 32

2nd & 3Rush+17 ydsPPA +1.55

Jacqez Barksdale run for 17 yds to the BUF 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.40

Jacqez Barksdale run for 3 yds to the MIZ 48

2nd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Jacqez Barksdale run for 3 yds to the MIZ 45

3rd & 4Rush0 ydsPPA -1.08

Al-Jay Henderson run for no gain to the MIZ 45

4th & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.18

C.J. Ogbonna pass incomplete

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.38

Brady Cook pass complete to Theo Wease Jr. for 6 yds to the BUF 49

2nd & 4Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.65

Nate Noel run for 8 yds to the BUF 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.40

Brady Cook pass complete to Joshua Manning for 10 yds to the BUF 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+31 ydsPPA +2.84

Brady Cook run for 31 yds for a TD (Blake Craig KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.03

C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Messiah Burch for 12 yds to the BUF 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

C.J. Ogbonna pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+29 ydsPPA +3.18

C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Victor Snow for 29 yds to the MIZ 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.66

C.J. Ogbonna pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.68

Messiah Burch run for 1 yd to the MIZ 33

3rd & 9Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.37

Jacqez Barksdale run for 3 yds to the MIZ 30

4th & 6Field Goal Missed+48 yds

Nick Reed 48 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.37

Brady Cook pass complete to Theo Wease Jr. for 6 yds to the MIZ 36

2nd & 4Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.95

Brady Cook pass complete to Theo Wease Jr. for 8 yds to the MIZ 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.68

Brady Cook run for 2 yds to the MIZ 46

2nd & 8Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Brady Cook pass complete to Nate Noel for 4 yds to the 50 yard line

3rd & 4Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.98

Brady Cook pass complete to Marquis Johnson for 9 yds to the BUF 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.48

Brady Cook pass complete to Marquis Johnson for 13 yds to the BUF 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception-7 ydsPPA -1.64

Brady Cook pass complete to Nate Noel for a loss of 7 yards to the BUF 35

2nd & 17Field Goal Missed+52 yds

Blake Craig 52 yd FG MISSED

0th & 17End of Half-30 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Brady Cook pass complete to Theo Wease Jr. for 5 yds to the MIZ 30

2nd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Nate Noel run for 4 yds to the MIZ 34

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.05

Marcus Carroll run for 3 yds to the MIZ 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+16 ydsPPA +1.44

Marcus Carroll run for 16 yds to the BUF 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.82

Marcus Carroll run for 1 yd to the BUF 46

2nd & 9Penalty-5 yds

(12:07) COOK, Brady pass short to the left complete for 20 yards to COOPER, Mookie caught at the BUF42 and advanced to the BUF26 (COOPER, Marquis;DOLAC, Shaun), clock 12:00. PENALTY MIZ Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass enforced 5 yards from the BUF46 to the MIZ49 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

2nd & 14Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.74

Brady Cook run for 8 yds to the BUF 43

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Brady Cook pass incomplete

4th & 6Penalty0 yds

Buffalo Penalty, Offensive Holding (Yards) declined for a 1ST down

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Jacqez Barksdale run for 5 yds to the BUF 37

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.54

C.J. Ogbonna pass incomplete

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Ethan Duane punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Daniel Blood at the MIZ 19

1st & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.93

C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Victor Snow for no gain to the BUF 32

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.53

Brady Cook pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+18 ydsPPA +1.92

Brady Cook run for 18 yds to the MIZ 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.71

Nate Noel run for 7 yds to the MIZ 44

2nd & 3Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.93

Nate Noel run for 12 yds to the BUF 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.97

Brady Cook pass complete to Nate Noel for no gain to the BUF 44

2nd & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.48

Nate Noel run for a loss of 2 yards to the BUF 46

3rd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.75

Brady Cook pass incomplete

4th & 12Penalty-5 yds

Missouri Penalty, False Start (TEAM) to the MIZ 49

4th & 17Punt0 yds

Luke Bauer punt for 47 yds

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.27

C.J. Ogbonna pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.07

Jacqez Barksdale run for 2 yds to the BUF 6

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.07

C.J. Ogbonna pass incomplete

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Ethan Duane punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Daniel Blood at the BUF 47

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.58

Brady Cook pass complete to Mookie Cooper for 2 yds to the BUF 45

2nd & 8Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.32

Nate Noel run for 6 yds to the BUF 39

3rd & 2Penalty-10 yds

(04:19) NOEL, Nate rush to the left for a gain of 3 yards to the BUF36 (MURDOCK, Red;FOLSOM, Daishon), clock 04:17. PENALTY MIZ Holding on GREEN, Cayden enforced 10 yards from the BUF39 to the BUF49 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

3rd & 12Pass Reception+27 ydsPPA +3.45

Brady Cook pass complete to Theo Wease Jr. for 27 yds to the BUF 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -0.50

Brady Cook pass complete to Mookie Cooper for a loss of 1 yard to the BUF 23

2nd & 11Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +1.26

Brady Cook pass complete to Joshua Manning for 18 yds to the BUF 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Penalty-15 yds

NOEL, Nate rush to the right for a gain of 5 yards to the BUF0, TOUCHDOWN MIZ, score nullified by penalty, clock 02:32 (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY MIZ Face mask on WALTERS, Mitchell enforced 15 yards from the BUF5 to the BUF20 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 20Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.45

Brady Cook pass complete to Theo Wease Jr. for 12 yds to the BUF 8

2nd & 8Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Mookie Cooper run for 4 yds to the BUF 4

3rd & 4Rushing Touchdown+4 ydsPPA +2.70

Nate Noel run for 4 yds for a TD (Blake Craig KICK)

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Al-Jay Henderson run for 5 yds to the BUF 30

2nd & 5Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.03

Al-Jay Henderson run for 8 yds to the BUF 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Al-Jay Henderson run for 3 yds to the BUF 41

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.96

C.J. Ogbonna pass incomplete

3rd & 7Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.05

C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Victor Snow for 5 yds to the BUF 46

4th & 2Rush+2 ydsPPA +2.28

Jacqez Barksdale run for 2 yds to the BUF 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.90

Jacqez Barksdale run for 1 yd to the BUF 49

2nd & 9Sack-6 ydsPPA -1.89

C.J. Ogbonna sacked by Jahkai Lang for a loss of 6 yards to the BUF 43

3rd & 15Sack-2 ydsPPA -0.41

C.J. Ogbonna sacked by Chris McClellan and Triston Newson for a loss of 2 yards to the BUF 41

4th & 17Punt0 yds

Ethan Duane punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Daniel Blood at the MIZ 24

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.28

Marcus Carroll run for 3 yds to the MIZ 27

2nd & 7Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.28

Marcus Carroll run for 9 yds to the MIZ 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -1.21

Drew Pyne pass complete to Marcus Carroll for a loss of 1 yard to the MIZ 35

2nd & 11Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.15

Marcus Carroll run for 10 yds to the MIZ 45

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -1.04

Marcus Carroll run for no gain to the MIZ 45

4th & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +2.15

Marcus Carroll run for 2 yds to the MIZ 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

PYNE, Drew pass up the middle complete for 14 yards to BLOOD, Daniel caught at the BUF39 and advanced to the BUF39 (FUQUA, Marcus), clock 08:24. PENALTY MIZ Holding on MEMBOU, Armand enforced 10 yards from the MIZ47 to the MIZ37 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 20Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Drew Pyne pass complete to Marquis Johnson for 4 yds to the MIZ 41

2nd & 16Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.44

Drew Pyne pass complete to Daniel Blood for 1 yd to the MIZ 42

3rd & 15Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.02

Drew Pyne pass complete to Tyler Stephens for 5 yds to the MIZ 47

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Luke Bauer punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Victor Snow at the BUF 13

1st & 10Rush+19 ydsPPA +1.18

C.J. Ogbonna run for 19 yds to the BUF 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.58

C.J. Ogbonna run for 2 yds to the BUF 34

2nd & 8Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.29

Jacqez Barksdale run for 6 yds to the BUF 40

3rd & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -0.82

Jacqez Barksdale run for no gain to the BUF 40

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Ethan Duane punt for 13 yds

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.63

Kewan Lacy run for 7 yds to the BUF 46

2nd & 3Rush-4 ydsPPA -2.17

Kewan Lacy run for 6 yds to the MIZ 40 Missouri Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jordon Harris) to the 50 yard line

2nd & 7Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.36

Drew Pyne pass complete to Marquis Johnson for 6 yds to the BUF 44

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.90

Kewan Lacy run for 3 yds to the BUF 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.10

Kewan Lacy run for 4 yds to the BUF 37

2nd & 6Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +0.76

Drew Pyne pass complete to Marquis Johnson for 20 yds to the BUF 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.45

Kewan Lacy run for 8 yds to the BUF 9

2nd & 2Fumble Recovery (Own)-1 ydsPPA -0.59

Kewan Lacy run for a loss of 1 yard to the BUF 10 Kewan Lacy fumbled, recovered by MIZ

3rd & 3Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.25

Jamal Roberts run for 7 yds to the BUF 3 for a 1ST down

1st & 3Rushing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +1.46

Jamal Roberts run for 3 yds for a TD (Blake Craig KICK)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Messiah Burch run for 1 yd to the BUF 26

Situational Analysis

Buffalo

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
20%
20 plays
2nd
100%
1 play
100%
2 plays
31%
13 plays
0%
1 play
3rd
0%
1 play
0%
2 plays
29%
7 plays
0%
2 plays
4th
100%
1 play
0%
1 play
0%
1 play

Missouri

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
2 plays
58%
33 plays
67%
3 plays
2nd
44%
9 plays
80%
5 plays
60%
10 plays
75%
4 plays
3rd
83%
6 plays
60%
5 plays
0%
1 play
67%
3 plays
4th
100%
1 play