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← Back to GamesSep 8, 2024Week 2

House Prediction

Model Margin

Arizona State by 4.6

Home Win Probability

Arizona State 66%

Market (Bovada)

Arizona State -6.5

Edge: Mississippi State +6.5 (1.9 pts)

fitted_v1 · Sep 8, 2024

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Mississippi StateMississippi State
0371323
Arizona StateArizona State
10173030

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014287-010-010-313-320-327-330-330-1030-1630-23
Arizona StateMississippi State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20MSASMSASMSASMSMSASMSASMSASMSASMSASMSASPUNT38ydTD1079ydPUNT3-6ydFG1260ydFG1271ydFG945ydTD3-24ydDOWNS843ydTD1168ydEND1-8ydFG1446ydTD1275ydPUNT3-6ydTD850ydPUNT36ydPUNT55ydPUNT622ydTD180ydEND1250yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Mississippi State and Arizona State
StatisticMississippi StateArizona State
Passing18-2810-20
Pass Yards26869
Rush Yards30359
Total Yards298428
Turnovers10
3rd Down3-115-15
Penalties3-359-85
Possession19:4740:13

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Mississippi State
passing
Blake Shapen
18/28, 268 YDS, 2 TD
rushing
Keyvone Lee
9 CAR, 35 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Kevin Coleman Jr.
4 REC, 103 YDS, 1 TD
defense
Arizona State
passing
Sam Leavitt
10/20, 69 YDS
rushing
Cameron Skattebo
33 CAR, 262 YDS
receiving
Cameron Skattebo
3 REC, 35 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Keyvone Lee run for 7 yds to the MSST 32

2nd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.99

Blake Shapen pass incomplete

3rd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.43

Blake Shapen run for 1 yd to the MSST 33

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Nick Barr-Mira punt for 46 yds

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.14

Cam Skattebo run for 9 yds to the ASU 30

2nd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.24

Cam Skattebo run for 3 yds to the ASU 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.24

Sam Leavitt pass complete to Xavier Guillory for 13 yds to the ASU 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.92

Sam Leavitt pass complete to Cam Skattebo for 8 yds to the MSST 46

2nd & 2Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.15

Kyson Brown run for 2 yds to the MSST 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.97

Sam Leavitt pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.51

Cam Skattebo run for 12 yds to the MSST 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.61

Sam Leavitt pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +0.90

Sam Leavitt run for 15 yds to the MSST 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+17 ydsPPA +2.58

Sam Leavitt run for 17 yds for a TD (Ian Hershey KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Blake Shapen pass complete to Kevin Coleman Jr. for 6 yds to the MSST 31

2nd & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.55

Davon Booth run for 2 yds to the MSST 29

3rd & 6Penalty-10 yds

Mississippi State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Yards) declined

4th & 16Punt0 yds

Nick Barr-Mira punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Melquan Stovall at the ASU 30

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.32

Cam Skattebo run for 14 yds to the ASU 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.96

Cam Skattebo run for 8 yds to the MSST 48

2nd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.07

Cam Skattebo run for 3 yds to the MSST 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.77

DeCarlos Brooks run for 1 yd to the MSST 46

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Sam Leavitt pass incomplete

3rd & 11Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.19

Sam Leavitt run for 10 yds to the MSST 36

4th & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.66

Sam Leavitt run for 3 yds to the MSST 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +0.37

Sam Leavitt pass complete to Cam Skattebo for 21 yds to the MSST 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Sam Leavitt pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.16

DeCarlos Brooks run for 2 yds to the MSST 10

3rd & 8Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY ASU False Start (Iheanachor,Max) 5 yards from MSU10 to MSU15. NO PLAY.

3rd & 13Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.46

Cam Skattebo run for 10 yds to the MSST 5

4th & 3Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY ASU Delay Of Game 5 yards from MSU05 to MSU10. NO PLAY.

4th & 8Field Goal Good+27 yds

Ian Hershey 27 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Blake Shapen pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+27 ydsPPA +3.09

Blake Shapen pass complete to Jordan Mosley for 27 yds to the ASU 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.68

Blake Shapen pass complete to Seydou Traore for 12 yds to the ASU 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.40

Blake Shapen pass complete to Kevin Coleman Jr. for 7 yds to the ASU 29

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.39

Keyvone Lee run for 2 yds to the ASU 27

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.30

Keyvone Lee run for 2 yds to the ASU 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.45

Blake Shapen pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +0.73

Blake Shapen pass complete to Jordan Mosley for 16 yds to the ASU 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Keyvone Lee run for 3 yds to the ASU 6

2nd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.17

Keyvone Lee run for 2 yds to the ASU 4

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Blake Shapen pass incomplete

4th & 4Field Goal Good+32 yds

Kyle Ferrie 32 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.03

Cam Skattebo run for 12 yds to the ASU 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.42

Kyson Brown run for 3 yds to the ASU 40

2nd & 7Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.55

Sam Leavitt pass complete to Melquan Stovall for 9 yds to the ASU 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.12

Sam Leavitt run for 9 yds to the MSST 42

2nd & 1Rush+9 ydsPPA -0.10

Cam Skattebo run for 9 yds to the MSST 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.64

Sam Leavitt pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.28

Sam Leavitt pass complete to Markeston Douglas for 3 yds to the MSST 30

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.95

Sam Leavitt pass incomplete

4th & 7Field Goal Good+47 yds

Ian Hershey 47 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Blake Shapen pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.29

Davon Booth run for 1 yd to the MSST 26

3rd & 9Penalty-13 yds

No Huddle-Shotgun Shapen,Blake pass complete deep right to Craver,Mario caught at ASU36, for 61 yards to the ASU13 (Robinson,Javan) PENALTY MSU Pass Interference (Craver,Mario) 13 yards from MSU26 to MSU13. NO PLAY.

3rd & 22Fumble Return Touchdown+1 ydsPPA -6.62

C.J. Fite 1 Yd Fumble Return (Ian Hershey Kick)

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.84

Blake Shapen pass complete to Kevin Coleman Jr. for 10 yds to the MSST 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Blake Shapen pass incomplete

2nd & 10Penalty+15 yds

No Huddle-Shotgun Shapen,Blake pass incomplete deep middle to Akharaiyi,Kelly thrown to ASU40 PENALTY ASU Pass Interference (Abney II,Keith) 15 yards from MSU35 to MSU50, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.87

Johnnie Daniels run for 1 yd to the ASU 49

2nd & 9Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.53

Blake Shapen pass complete to Jordan Mosley for 9 yds to the ASU 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.65

Johnnie Daniels run for 1 yd to the ASU 41

2nd & 11Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.86

Blake Shapen pass complete to Seydou Traore for 9 yds to the ASU 32

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.73

Davon Booth run for 1 yd to the ASU 31

4th & 1Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -2.89

Blake Shapen pass complete to Keyvone Lee for a loss of 1 yard to the ASU 32 Mississippi State Penalty, Illegal Formation (Yards) declined

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.93

Cam Skattebo run for no gain to the ASU 32

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

Sam Leavitt pass incomplete

3rd & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +2.68

Cam Skattebo run for 13 yds to the ASU 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.80

Cam Skattebo run for 10 yds to the MSST 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

DeCarlos Brooks run for 5 yds to the MSST 40

2nd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

DeCarlos Brooks run for 4 yds to the MSST 36

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.56

Cam Skattebo run for 2 yds to the MSST 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+16 ydsPPA +0.34

Cam Skattebo run for 16 yds to the MSST 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+16 ydsPPA +1.38

Cam Skattebo run for 16 yds to the MSST 2 for a 1ST down

1st & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.69

Sam Leavitt run for 1 yd to the MSST 1

2nd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +1.90

Sam Leavitt run for 1 yd for a TD (Ian Hershey KICK)

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)+6 ydsPPA +0.23

run for 6 yds to the MSST 5 fumbled, recovered by MSST Blake Shapen , return for 2 yds to the MSST 5

0th & 10End of Half-8 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.25

Cam Skattebo run for 9 yds to the ASU 34

2nd & 1Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.17

Cam Skattebo run for 7 yds to the ASU 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.70

Sam Leavitt pass complete to Jordyn Tyson for 7 yds to the ASU 48

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.75

Sam Leavitt run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line

3rd & 1Rush+6 ydsPPA +1.30

Cam Skattebo run for 6 yds to the MSST 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

DeCarlos Brooks run for 5 yds to the MSST 39

2nd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.32

DeCarlos Brooks run for 3 yds to the MSST 36

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.82

Cam Skattebo run for 1 yd to the MSST 35

4th & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +1.53

Cam Skattebo run for 1 yd to the MSST 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.21

DeCarlos Brooks run for 3 yds to the MSST 31

2nd & 7Pass Reception-9 ydsPPA -2.61

Sam Leavitt pass complete to Chamon Metayer for 1 yd to the MSST 30 Arizona State Penalty, Illegal Block (-10 Yards) to the MSST 40

2nd & 16Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.27

Sam Leavitt run for 6 yds to the MSST 34

3rd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Cam Skattebo run for 5 yds to the MSST 29

4th & 5Field Goal Good+46 yds

Ian Hershey 46 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.03

Blake Shapen pass complete to Keyvone Lee for 12 yds to the MSST 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.42

Keyvone Lee run for 3 yds to the MSST 40

2nd & 7Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.36

Keyvone Lee run for 6 yds to the MSST 46

3rd & 1Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +1.42

Blake Shapen pass complete to Jordan Mosley for 6 yds to the ASU 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Blake Shapen pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +1.95

Blake Shapen pass complete to Kelly Akharaiyi for 18 yds to the ASU 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.51

Blake Shapen pass complete to Davon Booth for 8 yds to the ASU 22

2nd & 2Rush+9 ydsPPA -0.24

Kevin Coleman Jr. run for 9 yds to the ASU 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Davon Booth run for 5 yds to the ASU 8

2nd & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.27

Davon Booth run for 1 yd to the ASU 7

3rd & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.25

Davon Booth run for 1 yd to the ASU 6

4th & 3Rushing Touchdown+6 ydsPPA +2.98

Keyvone Lee run for 6 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Cam Skattebo run for 3 yds to the ASU 28

2nd & 7Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.56

Sam Leavitt pass complete to Jordyn Tyson for no gain to the ASU 28

3rd & 7Sack-4 ydsPPA -0.37

Sam Leavitt sacked by Branden Jennings for a loss of 4 yards to the ASU 24

4th & 11Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY ASU Delay Of Game 5 yards from ASU24 to ASU19. NO PLAY.

4th & 16Punt0 yds

Kanyon Floyd punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Kevin Coleman Jr. at the 50 yard line

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.75

Blake Shapen pass complete to Seydou Traore for 12 yds to the ASU 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.60

Blake Shapen run for 1 yd to the ASU 37

2nd & 9Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.43

Blake Shapen run for 7 yds to the ASU 30

3rd & 2Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.54

Keyvone Lee run for 4 yds to the ASU 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.47

Blake Shapen pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.48

Johnnie Daniels run for 1 yd to the ASU 25

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.86

Blake Shapen pass incomplete

4th & 9Penalty+10 yds

No Huddle-Shotgun Shapen,Blake pass incomplete short right to Craver,Mario thrown to ASU18 PENALTY ASU Holding (Elliott,Keyshaun) 10 yards from ASU25 to ASU15, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+15 ydsPPA +2.56

Blake Shapen pass complete to Davon Booth for 15 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie PAT MISSED)

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Cam Skattebo run for no gain to the ASU 25

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Sam Leavitt pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.08

Sam Leavitt pass complete to Cam Skattebo for 6 yds to the ASU 31 Arizona State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Yards) declined

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Kanyon Floyd punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Kevin Coleman Jr. at the MSST 34

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

No Huddle-Shotgun Shapen,Blake pass complete short right to Craver,Mario caught at MSU48, for 14 yards to the MSU48 (Robinson,Javan) PENALTY MSU Holding (Pounders,Makylan) 10 yards from MSU34 to MSU24. NO PLAY.

1st & 20Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.62

Blake Shapen pass complete to Mario Craver for 10 yds to the MSST 34

2nd & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +2.14

Blake Shapen pass complete to Mario Craver for 12 yds to the MSST 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-2 ydsPPA -1.60

Blake Shapen sacked by Elijah O'Neal for a loss of 2 yards to the MSST 44

2nd & 12Sack-5 ydsPPA -1.25

Blake Shapen sacked by Keyshaun Elliott for a loss of 5 yards to the MSST 39

3rd & 17Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.21

Blake Shapen pass incomplete

4th & 17Punt0 yds

Nick Barr-Mira punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ASU 20

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.24

Cam Skattebo run for 3 yds to the ASU 23

2nd & 7Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.23

Cam Skattebo run for 6 yds to the ASU 29

3rd & 1Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.93

Cam Skattebo run for 14 yds to the ASU 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

DeCarlos Brooks run for 3 yds to the ASU 46

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.08

Sam Leavitt pass incomplete

3rd & 7Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.60

Sam Leavitt pass complete to Xavier Guillory for 1 yd to the ASU 47

4th & 6Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY ASU Delay Of Game 5 yards from ASU47 to ASU42. NO PLAY.

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Kanyon Floyd punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Kevin Coleman Jr. at the MSST 20

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+80 ydsPPA +6.39

Kevin Coleman 80 Yd pass from Blake Shapen (Kyle Ferrie Kick)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Sam Leavitt pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.48

Sam Leavitt run for 8 yds to the ASU 33

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.50

Cam Skattebo run for 1 yd to the ASU 34

4th & 1Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.95

Cam Skattebo run for 5 yds to the ASU 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-5 ydsPPA -1.86

Cam Skattebo run for 10 yds to the ASU 49 for a 1ST down Arizona State Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Leif Fautanu) to the ASU 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.99

Cam Skattebo run for no gain to the ASU 34

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Cam Skattebo run for 5 yds to the ASU 39

3rd & 5Rush+10 ydsPPA +2.34

Cam Skattebo run for 10 yds to the ASU 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+39 ydsPPA +1.39

Cam Skattebo run for 39 yds to the MSST 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.42

Kneel down by Arizona St. at MSU14 for loss of 2 yards.

2nd & 12Rush-4 ydsPPA -0.85

Kneel down by Arizona St. at MSU18 for loss of 4 yards.

3rd & 16Rush-7 ydsPPA -2.26

Kneel down by Arizona St. at MSU25 for loss of 7 yards.

Situational Analysis

Mississippi State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
50%
24 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
0%
3 plays
0%
3 plays
78%
9 plays
50%
2 plays
3rd
60%
5 plays
0%
2 plays
0%
1 play
0%
2 plays
4th
50%
2 plays

Arizona State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
52%
33 plays
2nd
29%
7 plays
0%
2 plays
46%
13 plays
33%
3 plays
3rd
60%
5 plays
100%
1 play
50%
6 plays
67%
3 plays
4th
100%
3 plays