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← Back to GamesDec 28, 2023Week 1
LouisvilleLouisville
28
-Final
42
USCUSC

House Prediction

Model Margin

Louisville by 6.3

Home Win Probability

USC 39%

Market (Bovada)

USC +4.5

Edge: Louisville -4.5 (1.8 pts)

fitted_v1 · Dec 28, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
LouisvilleLouisville
777728
USCUSC
7217742

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428420-77-714-721-1428-1435-2135-2842-28
USCLouisville

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20USCLOUUSCLOUUSCLOUUSCLOUUSCLOUUSCLOULOUUSCLOUUSCLOUUSCLOUUSCLOUUSCPUNT34ydTD1071ydMISS754ydTO1-2ydTD319ydPUNT1451ydTD580ydPUNT35ydTD218ydTD973ydTD575ydEND1-10ydPUNT36ydTO334ydTD639ydTD1153ydTD1272ydTD775ydDOWNS1057ydPUNT544ydTO111ydUncategorized2-4yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Louisville and USC
StatisticLouisvilleUSC
Passing21-2523-33
Pass Yards141372
Rush Yards22071
Total Yards361443
Turnovers21
3rd Down6-126-10
Penalties4-443-32
Possession36:3423:26

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Louisville
passing
Jack Plummer
21/25, 141 YDS
rushing
Isaac Guerendo
23 CAR, 161 YDS, 3 TD
receiving
Isaac Guerendo
5 REC, 42 YDS
defense
USC
passing
Miller Moss
23/33, 372 YDS, 6 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Austin Jones
11 CAR, 60 YDS
receiving
Tahj Washington
7 REC, 99 YDS, 2 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Zachariah Branch run for no gain to the USC 25

2nd & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Miller Moss pass complete to Tahj Washington for 4 yds to the USC 29

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

Miller Moss pass incomplete

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Eddie Czaplicki punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Kevin Coleman at the LOU 29

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.83

Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce

2nd & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.37

Isaac Guerendo run for 7 yds to the LOU 36

3rd & 3Rush+14 ydsPPA +2.39

Isaac Guerendo run for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.79

Jack Plummer pass complete to Kevin Coleman for 13 yds to the USC 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.41

Isaac Guerendo run for 7 yds to the USC 30

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.40

Isaac Guerendo run for 2 yds to the USC 28

3rd & 1Rush+14 ydsPPA +0.49

Jack Plummer run for 14 yds to the USC 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.86

Jack Plummer pass complete to Kevin Coleman for 10 yds to the USC 4 for a 1ST down

1st & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.38

Isaac Guerendo run for 2 yds to the USC 2

2nd & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +2.07

Isaac Guerendo run for 2 yds for a TD (Nick Lopez KICK)

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.93

Miller Moss run for 11 yds to the USC 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Miller Moss pass incomplete to Makai Lemon

2nd & 10Pass Reception+40 ydsPPA +3.51

Miller Moss pass complete to Makai Lemon for 40 yds to the LOU 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.19

Austin Jones run for 6 yds to the LOU 18

2nd & 4Pass Reception-3 ydsPPA -0.81

Miller Moss pass complete to Zachariah Branch for a loss of 3 yards to the LOU 21

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.68

Miller Moss pass incomplete to Duce Robinson

4th & 7Field Goal Missed+38 yds

Denis Lynch 38 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Sack-2 ydsPPA -0.73

Jack Plummer sacked by Max Williams for a loss of 2 yards to the LOU 19 Jack Plummer fumbled, recovered by USC Solomon Byrd , return for 0 yards

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.28

Austin Jones run for 1 yd to the LOU 18

2nd & 9Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.31

Miller Moss pass complete to Austin Jones for 1 yd to the LOU 17

3rd & 8Passing Touchdown+17 ydsPPA +3.20

Miller Moss pass complete to Tahj Washington for 17 yds for a TD (Denis Lynch KICK)

3rd & 8Kickoff Return (Offense)+5 yds

Denis Lynch kickoff for 57 yds , Jimmy Calloway return for 5 yds to the LOU 13

1st & 10Rush+17 ydsPPA +1.00

Maurice Turner run for 2 yds to the LOU 15 for a 1ST down USC Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the LOU 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Jack Plummer pass complete to Maurice Turner for 5 yds to the LOU 35

2nd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Maurice Turner run for 4 yds to the LOU 39

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.07

Maurice Turner run for 2 yds to the LOU 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Maurice Turner run for 3 yds to the LOU 44

2nd & 7Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Kevin Coleman run for 5 yds to the LOU 49

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.88

Maurice Turner run for 1 yd to the 50 yard line

4th & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +2.11

Maurice Turner run for 1 yd to the USC 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.38

Jack Plummer pass complete to Kevin Coleman for 3 yds to the USC 46

2nd & 7Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.34

Maurice Turner run for 6 yds to the USC 40

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.75

Maurice Turner run for 3 yds to the USC 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

Plummer, Jack pass complete to Thompson, Jadon for no gain to the USC37, PENALTY LOUISVILLE holding 10 yards to the USC47, NO PLAY.

1st & 20Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Jack Plummer pass complete to Isaac Guerendo for 5 yds to the USC 42

2nd & 15Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.60

Ahmari Huggins-Bruce run for 2 yds to the USC 40

3rd & 13Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Jack Plummer pass complete to Maurice Turner for 4 yds to the USC 36

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Brady Hodges punt for 36 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Pass Reception+35 ydsPPA +2.91

Miller Moss pass complete to Makai Lemon for 35 yds to the LOU 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.33

Quinten Joyner run for 3 yds to the LOU 42

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.06

Miller Moss pass incomplete to Zachariah Branch

3rd & 7Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +2.08

Miller Moss pass complete to Dorian Singer for 13 yds to the LOU 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+29 ydsPPA +2.79

Miller Moss pass complete to Tahj Washington for 29 yds for a TD (Denis Lynch KICK)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+19 yds

Denis Lynch kickoff for 58 yds , Isaac Guerendo return for 19 yds to the LOU 26

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Jack Plummer pass complete to Jadon Thompson for 5 yds to the LOU 31

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.79

Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Chris Bell

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.39

Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Jadon Thompson

4th & 5Blocked Punt0 yds

Hodges,Brady punt 0 yards to the LOU31 blocked by Hudson,Kyron, out of bounds at LOU18.

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Miller Moss pass incomplete to Zachariah Branch

2nd & 10Penalty+9 yds

Moss, Miller pass incomplete to Branch, Zachariah, PENALTY LOUISVILLE holding 9 yards to the LOUISVILLE9, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN USC.

1st & 9Passing Touchdown+9 ydsPPA +2.42

Miller Moss pass complete to Kyron Hudson for 9 yds for a TD (Denis Lynch KICK)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+19 yds

Denis Lynch kickoff for 57 yds , Isaac Guerendo return for 19 yds to the LOU 27

1st & 10Rush+32 ydsPPA +2.69

Isaac Guerendo run for 32 yds to the USC 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.65

Jack Plummer pass complete to Jimmy Calloway for 8 yds to the USC 33

2nd & 2Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.26

Isaac Guerendo run for 2 yds to the USC 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.36

Jack Plummer pass complete to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce for 7 yds to the USC 24

2nd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Isaac Guerendo run for 4 yds to the USC 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.31

Isaac Guerendo run for 7 yds to the USC 13

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.26

Isaac Guerendo run for 2 yds to the USC 11

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.15

Isaac Guerendo run for 2 yds to the USC 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Rushing Touchdown+9 ydsPPA +2.42

Evan Conley run for 9 yds for a TD (Nick Lopez KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.03

Miller Moss pass complete to Zachariah Branch for 12 yds to the USC 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Miller Moss pass complete to Austin Jones for 6 yds to the USC 43

2nd & 4Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +1.75

Miller Moss pass complete to Tahj Washington for 24 yds to the LOU 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.34

Miller Moss run for 2 yds to the LOU 31

2nd & 8Passing Touchdown+31 ydsPPA +3.24

Miller Moss pass complete to Ja'Kobi Lane for 31 yds for a TD (Denis Lynch KICK)

2nd & 8Kickoff Return (Offense)+29 yds

Denis Lynch kickoff for 54 yds , Kevin Coleman return for 29 yds to the LOU 40

1st & 10Sack-10 ydsPPA -2.32

Jack Plummer sacked by Jamil Muhammad and Tyrone Taleni for a loss of 10 yards to the LOU 30

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+21 yds

Tyler Robles kickoff for 65 yds , Kevin Coleman return for 21 yds to the LOU 21

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.25

Jack Plummer pass complete to Chris Bell for 3 yds to the LOU 24

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.46

Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce

3rd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.09

Jack Plummer run for 3 yds to the LOU 27

4th & 4Punt+23 yds

Brady Hodges punt for 38 yds , Zachariah Branch returns for 23 yds to the LOU 42

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.49

Austin Jones run for 2 yds to the LOU 40

2nd & 8Pass Reception+32 ydsPPA +1.47

Miller Moss pass complete to Carson Tabaracci for 32 yds to the LOU 8 for a 1ST down

1st & 8Pass Interception Return+61 ydsPPA -4.68

Miller Moss pass intercepted Quincy Riley return for 61 yds to the USC 39

1st & 10Rush+19 ydsPPA +0.52

Isaac Guerendo run for 19 yds to the USC 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.12

Isaac Guerendo run for 3 yds to the USC 17

2nd & 7Rush-5 ydsPPA -1.00

Jack Plummer run for 5 yds to the USC 12 Louisville Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the USC 22

2nd & 12Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +1.96

Jack Plummer pass complete to Isaac Guerendo for 20 yds to the USC 2 for a 1ST down

1st & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.69

Isaac Guerendo run for 1 yd to the USC 1

2nd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +1.90

Isaac Guerendo run for 1 yd for a TD (Nick Lopez KICK)

2nd & 9Kickoff Return (Offense)+10 yds

Brock Travelstead kickoff for 43 yds , Justin Dedich return for 10 yds to the USC 45 Louisville Penalty, Illegal Block (-15 Yards) to the USC 47

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.15

Miller Moss pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.26

Quinten Joyner run for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 45

3rd & 12Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +3.42

Miller Moss pass complete to Ja'Kobi Lane for 17 yds to the LOU 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.42

Miller Moss pass complete to Tahj Washington for 2 yds to the LOU 36

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.91

Miller Moss pass incomplete to Zachariah Branch

3rd & 8Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.78

Miller Moss pass complete to Austin Jones for 14 yds to the LOU 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.19

Miller Moss pass complete to Tahj Washington for 6 yds to the LOU 16

2nd & 4Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.14

Miller Moss pass complete to Austin Jones for 3 yds to the LOU 13

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.46

Austin Jones run for no gain to the LOU 13

4th & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +0.53

Jake Jensen run for 1 yd to the LOU 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+12 ydsPPA +2.53

Miller Moss pass complete to Ja'Kobi Lane for 12 yds for a TD (Denis Lynch KICK)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+21 yds

Tyler Robles kickoff for 58 yds , Kevin Coleman return for 21 yds to the LOU 28

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.97

Isaac Guerendo run for 8 yds to the LOU 36

2nd & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -1.22

Isaac Guerendo run for no gain to the LOU 36

3rd & 2Rush+27 ydsPPA +3.06

Isaac Guerendo run for 27 yds to the USC 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-5 ydsPPA -1.77

Jack Plummer sacked by Bryson Shaw and Elijah Hughes for a loss of 5 yards to the USC 42

2nd & 15Rush+22 ydsPPA +2.21

Isaac Guerendo run for 7 yds to the USC 35 for a 1ST down USC Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Mason Cobb) to the USC 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.19

Jack Plummer pass complete to Chris Bell for 6 yds to the USC 14

2nd & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.24

Isaac Guerendo run for 2 yds to the USC 12

3rd & 2Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.33

Jack Plummer pass complete to Nate Kurisky for 1 yd to the USC 11

4th & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +0.48

Jack Plummer run for 1 yd to the USC 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.01

Evan Conley run for 4 yds to the USC 6

2nd & 6Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.17

Jack Plummer pass complete to Nate Kurisky for 2 yds to the USC 4

3rd & 0Penalty+2 yds

Plummer, Jack pass incomplete, PENALTY USC holding (Brown, Prophet) 2 yards to the USC2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LOUISVILLE.

1st & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +1.21

Isaac Guerendo run for 2 yds for a TD (Nick Lopez KICK)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Austin Jones run for 1 yd to the USC 26

2nd & 9Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.20

Austin Jones run for 6 yds to the USC 32

3rd & 3Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +1.61

Miller Moss pass complete to Kyron Hudson for 7 yds to the USC 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.11

Miller Moss pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.73

Miller Moss pass incomplete to Dorian Singer

3rd & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +3.28

Miller Moss pass complete to Tahj Washington for 17 yds to the LOU 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+44 ydsPPA +3.41

Miller Moss pass complete to Duce Robinson for 44 yds for a TD (Denis Lynch KICK)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+17 yds

Tyler Robles kickoff for 51 yds , Kevin Coleman return for 17 yds to the LOU 31

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.68

Jack Plummer pass complete to Isaac Guerendo for 7 yds to the LOU 38

2nd & 3Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.74

Isaac Guerendo run for 8 yds to the LOU 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.21

Jack Plummer pass complete to Isaac Guerendo for 9 yds to the USC 45

2nd & 1Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.01

Maurice Turner run for 10 yds to the USC 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.22

Maurice Turner run for 3 yds to the USC 32

2nd & 7Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.57

Jack Plummer pass complete to Chris Bell for 12 yds to the USC 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Jack Plummer pass complete to Maurice Turner for 5 yds to the USC 15

2nd & 5Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.59

Maurice Turner run for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 17

3rd & 7Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.42

Jack Plummer pass complete to Isaac Guerendo for 1 yd to the USC 16

4th & 6Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -3.44

Jack Plummer pass complete to Jadon Thompson for 4 yds to the USC 12

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.32

Austin Jones run for 1 yd to the USC 13

2nd & 9Rush+35 ydsPPA +3.05

Austin Jones run for 35 yds to the USC 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.14

Austin Jones run for no gain to the USC 48

2nd & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.15

Austin Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 47

3rd & 11Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.83

Austin Jones run for 9 yds to the LOU 44

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Eddie Czaplicki punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Kevin Coleman at the LOU 13

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Jack Plummer pass complete to Jadon Thompson for 11 yds Jadon Thompson fumbled, recovered by USC Mason Cobb , return for 3 yds to the LOU 21

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.58

TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the LOU 23

2nd & 12Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.93

TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the LOU 25

Situational Analysis

Louisville

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
50%
2 plays
0%
1 play
61%
28 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
44%
9 plays
0%
5 plays
67%
6 plays
67%
3 plays
3rd
75%
8 plays
0%
1 play
0%
2 plays
0%
1 play
4th
100%
2 plays
0%
1 play

USC

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
40%
25 plays
2nd
33%
3 plays
42%
12 plays
0%
1 play
3rd
50%
2 plays
0%
1 play
80%
5 plays
100%
2 plays
4th
100%
1 play