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← Back to GamesDec 28, 2023Week 1

House Prediction

Model Margin

Kansas State by 2

Home Win Probability

Kansas State 58%

Market (Bovada)

Kansas State -3

Edge: NC State +3 (1.0 pts)

fitted_v1 · Dec 28, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
NC StateNC State
0109019
Kansas StateKansas State
7140728

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014287-014-014-721-1321-1928-19
Kansas StateNC State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20KSNSKSNSKSNSKSNSKSNSNSKSNSKSNSKSNSKSNSKSNSKSTD675ydPUNT415ydPUNT34ydTO416ydPUNT412ydDOWNS1364ydTD990ydTD976ydTD1075ydEND857ydFG644ydPUNT622ydMISS743ydPUNT3-1ydTD775ydPUNT427ydPUNT38ydPUNT512ydPUNT36ydTD1572ydTO10ydEND634yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing NC State and Kansas State
StatisticNC StateKansas State
Passing14-2914-31
Pass Yards164178
Rush Yards235257
Total Yards399435
Turnovers10
3rd Down7-154-14
Penalties3-176-55
Possession29:0630:54

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

NC State
passing
Brennan Armstrong
14/28, 164 YDS, 1 INT
rushing
Brennan Armstrong
17 CAR, 121 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Kevin Concepcion
7 REC, 72 YDS
defense
Kansas State
passing
Avery Johnson
14/31, 178 YDS, 2 TD
rushing
DJ Giddens
28 CAR, 151 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Jayce Brown
5 REC, 52 YDS, 1 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+20 ydsPPA +1.80

DJ Giddens run for 20 yds to the KSU 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.98

DJ Giddens run for 13 yds to the NCSU 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

DJ Giddens run for 5 yds to the NCSU 37

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.93

Avery Johnson pass incomplete

3rd & 5Rush0 ydsPPA -1.06

DJ Giddens run for no gain to the NCSU 37

4th & 5Passing Touchdown+37 ydsPPA +5.20

DJ Giddens 37 Yd pass from Avery Johnson (Chris Tennant Kick)

1st & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +0.64

Brennan Armstrong run for 15 yds to the NCSU 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.64

Kendrick Raphael run for no gain to the NCSU 23

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.26

Brennan Armstrong run for 1 yd to the NCSU 24

3rd & 9Penalty-5 yds

NC State Penalty, False Start (Dylan McMahon) to the NCSU 19

3rd & 14Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.01

Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 4 yds to the NCSU 23

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Caden Noonkester punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Sterling Lockett at the KSU 39

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.30

Keagan Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the KSU 38

2nd & 11Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Avery Johnson pass complete to Keagan Johnson for 5 yds to the KSU 43

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.67

Avery Johnson pass incomplete to Seth Porter

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Jack Blumer punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Jalen Coit at the NCSU 14

1st & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +0.88

Brennan Armstrong run for 15 yds to the NCSU 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.83

Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Keyon Lesane

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.37

Kendrick Raphael run for 1 yd to the NCSU 30

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.24

Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Caden Noonkester punt for 44 yds , Seth Porter returns for no gain to the KSU 16 Seth Porter fumbled, recovered by KSU Erik Pizarro Kansas State Penalty, Illegal Block (Jacob Parrish) to the KSU 16

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.57

DJ Giddens run for 10 yds to the KSU 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.73

Avery Johnson pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.24

DJ Giddens run for 2 yds to the KSU 28

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.24

Avery Johnson pass incomplete

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Jack Blumer punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Jalen Coit at the NCSU 26

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.31

Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Kendrick Raphael for 3 yds to the NCSU 29

2nd & 7Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.67

Kendrick Raphael run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSU 28

3rd & 8Rush+19 ydsPPA +2.89

Brennan Armstrong run for 19 yds to the NCSU 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.18

Kevin Concepcion run for 9 yds to the KSU 44

2nd & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.23

Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete

3rd & 1Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.13

Brennan Armstrong run for 8 yds to the KSU 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Delbert Mimms III run for 5 yds to the KSU 31

2nd & 5Sack-2 ydsPPA -1.12

Brennan Armstrong sacked by Jacob Parrish and Chiddi Obiazor for a loss of 2 yards to the KSU 33

3rd & 7Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.44

Brennan Armstrong run for 14 yds to the KSU 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Brennan Armstrong run for 5 yds to the KSU 14

2nd & 5Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.22

Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 2 yds to the KSU 12

3rd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.22

Brennan Armstrong run for 2 yds to the KSU 10

4th & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -4.03

Brennan Armstrong run for no gain to the KSU 10

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.05

DJ Giddens run for 4 yds to the KSU 14

2nd & 6Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.70

Avery Johnson pass complete to Keagan Johnson for 10 yds to the KSU 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.67

Avery Johnson run for no gain to the KSU 24

2nd & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Avery Johnson pass complete to Jayce Brown for 5 yds to the KSU 29

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Avery Johnson pass incomplete

4th & 5Rush+30 ydsPPA +3.89

Jack Blumer run for 30 yds to the NCSU 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.86

DJ Giddens run for 9 yds to the NCSU 32

1st & 4Rushing Touchdown+4 ydsPPA +1.69

DJ Giddens 4 Yd Run (Chris Tennant Kick)

2nd & 1Pass Reception+28 ydsPPA +0.69

Avery Johnson pass complete to Garrett Oakley for 28 yds to the NCSU 4 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.28

Brennan Armstrong run for 3 yds to the NCSU 27

2nd & 7Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.26

Brennan Armstrong run for 6 yds to the NCSU 33

3rd & 1Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.21

Delbert Mimms III run for 5 yds to the NCSU 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.03

Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Trent Pennix for 11 yds to the NCSU 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.13

Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +2.92

Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Kendrick Raphael for 12 yds to the KSU 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.62

Kevin Concepcion run for 8 yds to the KSU 31

2nd & 2Rushing Touchdown+31 ydsPPA +2.52

Brennan Armstrong 31 Yd Run (Brayden Narveson Kick)

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Avery Johnson pass complete to Garrett Oakley for 7 yds to the KSU 32

2nd & 3Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.62

DJ Giddens run for 7 yds to the KSU 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

DJ Giddens run for 5 yds to the KSU 44

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.15

Avery Johnson pass incomplete

3rd & 5Rush+12 ydsPPA +2.48

Avery Johnson run for 12 yds to the NCSU 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.48

Avery Johnson pass complete to Jayce Brown for 10 yds to the NCSU 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Avery Johnson pass complete to Jayce Brown for 4 yds to the NCSU 30

2nd & 6Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.40

DJ Giddens run for 11 yds to the NCSU 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.36

Avery Johnson pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rushing Touchdown+19 ydsPPA +2.97

Avery Johnson 19 Yd Run (Chris Tennant Kick)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete

2nd & 10Penalty+15 yds

Kansas State Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Jacob Parrish) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

NC State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NCSU 45

1st & 15Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.84

Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Kendrick Raphael for 15 yds to the KSU 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.27

Kendrick Raphael run for 6 yds to the KSU 34

2nd & 4Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.16

Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Dacari Collins for 6 yds to the KSU 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 4 yds to the KSU 24

2nd & 6Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +0.49

Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 16 yds to the KSU 8 for a 1ST down

1st & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.36

Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete

2nd & 8Field Goal Good+26 yds

Brayden Narveson 26 Yd Field Goal

0th & 0End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Kevin Concepcion pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+38 ydsPPA +3.73

Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Dacari Collins for 38 yds to the KSU 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.24

Kendrick Raphael run for 3 yds to the KSU 34

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.84

Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete

3rd & 7Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.36

Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 3 yds to the KSU 31

4th & 4Field Goal Good+49 yds

Brayden Narveson 49 Yd Field Goal

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.80

DJ Giddens run for a loss of 1 yard to the KSU 24

2nd & 11Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.05

DJ Giddens run for 4 yds to the KSU 28

3rd & 7Rush+12 ydsPPA +2.18

Avery Johnson run for 12 yds to the KSU 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.79

DJ Giddens run for a loss of 4 yards to the KSU 36

2nd & 14Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.46

Avery Johnson pass incomplete

3rd & 14Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.69

DJ Giddens run for 11 yds to the KSU 47

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Jack Blumer punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Jalen Coit at the NCSU 23

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)0 ydsPPA -0.64

TEAM run for no gain to the NCSU 21 TEAM fumbled, recovered by NCSU Demarcus Jones II Demarcus Jones II run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSU 21

2nd & 12Rush0 ydsPPA -0.22

Brennan Armstrong run for no gain to the NCSU 21

3rd & 12Pass Reception+40 ydsPPA +4.10

Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 40 yds to the KSU 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.81

Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Kendrick Raphael run for 5 yds to the KSU 34

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.02

Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete

4th & 5Field Goal Missed+52 yds

Brayden Narveson 52 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.14

DJ Giddens run for a loss of 1 yard to the KSU 33

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.50

Avery Johnson pass incomplete

3rd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.24

Avery Johnson pass incomplete

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Jack Blumer punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jalen Coit at the NCSU 25

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Kevin Concepcion run for 6 yds to the NCSU 31

2nd & 4Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.10

Brennan Armstrong run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSU 29

3rd & 6Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +1.70

Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Julian Gray for 7 yds to the NCSU 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 3 yds to the NCSU 39

2nd & 7Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.04

Delbert Mimms III run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSU 38

3rd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.29

Brennan Armstrong run for 2 yds to the NCSU 40

4th & 6Rushing Touchdown+60 ydsPPA +6.88

Trent Pennix 60 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)

1st & 10Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +1.98

Avery Johnson pass complete to Jayce Brown for 22 yds to the KSU 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Avery Johnson pass complete to Jadon Jackson for 5 yds to the NCSU 48

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.18

Avery Johnson pass incomplete to Jadon Jackson

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.99

Avery Johnson pass incomplete

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Jack Blumer punt for 27 yds, fair catch by Jalen Coit at the NCSU 21

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Delbert Mimms III run for 4 yds to the NCSU 25

2nd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Brennan Armstrong run for 4 yds to the NCSU 29

3rd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.50

Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Caden Noonkester punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Seth Porter at the KSU 31

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.03

DJ Giddens run for a loss of 1 yard to the KSU 30

2nd & 11Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +2.36

Avery Johnson pass complete to Seth Porter for 15 yds to the KSU 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Kansas State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the KSU 40

1st & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.88

Avery Johnson pass incomplete

2nd & 15Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.23

DJ Giddens run for 3 yds to the KSU 43

3rd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.42

Avery Johnson pass incomplete

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Jack Blumer punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jalen Coit at the NCSU 15

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.44

Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.11

Kendrick Raphael run for 6 yds to the NCSU 21

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.26

Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Caden Noonkester punt for 41 yds , Seth Porter returns for no gain to the KSU 21 Kansas State Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the KSU 28

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.51

DJ Giddens run for 2 yds to the KSU 30

2nd & 8Penalty-5 yds

Kansas State Penalty, False Start (KT Leveston) to the KSU 25

2nd & 13Rush0 ydsPPA -0.25

La'James White run for no gain to the KSU 25

3rd & 13Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +2.55

Avery Johnson pass complete to Keagan Johnson for 16 yds to the KSU 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.70

Jadon Jackson run for 7 yds to the KSU 48

2nd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.29

Avery Johnson pass incomplete

3rd & 3Pass Reception-7 ydsPPA -1.77

Avery Johnson pass complete to Jadon Jackson for 3 yds to the NCSU 49 Kansas State Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the KSU 41

3rd & 10Rush+18 ydsPPA +3.35

Avery Johnson run for 18 yds to the NCSU 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.10

DJ Giddens run for 4 yds to the NCSU 37

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.93

Avery Johnson pass incomplete

3rd & 6Penalty+7 yds

NC State Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (7 Yards) to the NCSU 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.51

DJ Giddens run for 8 yds to the NCSU 22

2nd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.48

DJ Giddens run for 1 yd to the NCSU 21

3rd & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.62

Avery Johnson pass incomplete

4th & 1Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.87

DJ Giddens run for 8 yds to the NCSU 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.17

DJ Giddens run for 2 yds to the NCSU 11

2nd & 8Passing Touchdown+11 ydsPPA +2.71

Jayce Brown 11 Yd pass from Avery Johnson (Chris Tennant Kick)

1st & 10Pass Interception Return+3 ydsPPA -1.66

Brennan Armstrong pass intercepted Jacob Parrish return for 3 yds to the NCSU 41

1st & 10Rush+20 ydsPPA +0.61

DJ Giddens run for 20 yds to the NCSU 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.21

DJ Giddens run for 2 yds to the NCSU 19

2nd & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.13

DJ Giddens run for 3 yds to the NCSU 16

3rd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.26

Avery Johnson run for 2 yds to the NCSU 14

4th & 3Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.19

Avery Johnson run for 8 yds to the NCSU 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.55

TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSU 7

Situational Analysis

NC State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
36%
25 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
50%
2 plays
33%
6 plays
40%
10 plays
0%
1 play
3rd
50%
4 plays
33%
3 plays
50%
6 plays
50%
2 plays
4th
0%
1 play
100%
1 play

Kansas State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
50%
2 plays
48%
27 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
50%
4 plays
33%
6 plays
60%
5 plays
29%
7 plays
3rd
0%
2 plays
17%
6 plays
67%
3 plays
50%
4 plays
4th
100%
2 plays
100%
2 plays