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← Back to GamesDec 23, 2023Week 1

House Prediction

Model Margin

Northern Illinois by 3

Home Win Probability

Northern Illinois 59%

Market (Bovada)

Northern Illinois +2.5

Edge: Northern Illinois +2.5 (5.5 pts)

fitted_v1 · Dec 23, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Arkansas StateArkansas State
760619
Northern IllinoisNorthern Illinois
1380021

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014286-013-721-721-1021-1321-19
Northern IllinoisArkansas State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20NIASNIASNIASNIASNIASNIASASNIASNIASNIASNIASNITD1075ydTO547ydTO36ydTD142ydTD975ydDOWNS630ydTD887ydFG1165ydMISS756ydPUNT512ydTO729ydEND531ydPUNT36ydPUNT838ydPUNT33ydPUNT32ydPUNT37ydMISS748ydPUNT937ydPUNT1033ydTD886ydEND210yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Arkansas State and Northern Illinois
StatisticArkansas StateNorthern Illinois
Passing16-3019-30
Pass Yards250232
Rush Yards101189
Total Yards351421
Turnovers12
3rd Down7-147-16
Penalties6-483-25
Possession19:3540:25

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Arkansas State
passing
Jaylen Raynor
16/30, 250 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Jaylen Raynor
13 CAR, 49 YDS
receiving
Corey Rucker
5 REC, 107 YDS, 2 TD
defense
Northern Illinois
passing
Rocky Lombardi
18/29, 200 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
rushing
Antario Brown
25 CAR, 132 YDS
receiving
Grayson Barnes
5 REC, 105 YDS, 1 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.96

Antario Brown run for a loss of 3 yards to the NIU 22

2nd & 13Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.14

Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 2 yds to the NIU 24

3rd & 11Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +2.51

Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Grayson Barnes for 17 yds to the NIU 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.14

Antario Brown run for no gain to the NIU 41

2nd & 10Penalty-5 yds

Northern Illinois Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NIU 36

2nd & 15Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.32

Antario Brown run for 7 yds to the NIU 43

3rd & 8Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +2.82

Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 12 yds to the ARST 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+30 ydsPPA +0.92

Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Grayson Barnes for 30 yds to the ARST 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.32

Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.69

Justin Lynch run for a loss of 3 yards to the ARST 18

3rd & 13Passing Touchdown+18 ydsPPA +3.57

Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Grayson Barnes for 18 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)

3rd & 13Kickoff Return (Offense)+36 yds

Jake Seibert kickoff for 64 yds , Ja'Quez Cross return for 36 yds to the ARST 37

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.24

Jaylen Raynor run for a loss of 1 yard to the ARST 36

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.58

Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete

3rd & 11Pass Reception+31 ydsPPA +3.97

Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 31 yds to the NIU 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +0.33

Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 17 yds to the NIU 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -4.43

Jaylen Raynor pass intercepted Javaughn Byrd return for no gain to the NIU 4

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.11

Antario Brown run for 3 yds to the NIU 7

2nd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.08

Antario Brown run for 3 yds to the NIU 10

3rd & 4Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA +0.13

Rocky Lombardi pass intercepted Trevian Thomas return for no gain to the NIU 42

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+42 ydsPPA +3.29

Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 42 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +1.61

Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Tristen Tewes for 18 yds to the NIU 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.98

Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 8 yds to the ARST 49

2nd & 2Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Jalen Johnson for 5 yds to the ARST 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.93

Antario Brown run for 9 yds to the ARST 35

2nd & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.95

Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete

3rd & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +0.49

Antario Brown run for 1 yd to the ARST 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+23 ydsPPA +0.41

Trayvon Rudolph run for 11 yds to the ARST 23 for a 1ST down Arkansas State Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (12 Yards) to the ARST 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Antario Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the ARST 12 for a 1ST down Arkansas State Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (6 Yards) to the ARST 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Rushing Touchdown+6 ydsPPA +2.05

Rocky Lombardi run for 6 yds for a TD (Kanon Woodill KICK)

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Jaylen Raynor run for 5 yds to the NIU 38

2nd & 5Penalty0 yds

Raynor, Jaylen rush for no gain to the NORTHERNIL38, PENALTY ARST unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, PENALTY NORTHERNIL Unsportsmanlike Conduct off-setting, NO PLAY.

2nd & 5Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +0.61

Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 16 yds to the NIU 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.50

Zak Wallace run for a loss of 1 yard to the NIU 23

2nd & 11Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.24

Zak Wallace run for 7 yds to the NIU 16

3rd & 4Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.15

Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 3 yds to the NIU 13

4th & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -3.94

Jaylen Raynor run for no gain to the NIU 13

1st & 10Rush+27 ydsPPA +1.94

Antario Brown run for 27 yds to the NIU 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Antario Brown run for 6 yds to the NIU 46

2nd & 4Penalty+5 yds

Arkansas State Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the ARST 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.10

Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete

2nd & 10Penalty+5 yds

Arkansas State Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the ARST 44

2nd & 5Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.57

Antario Brown run for 6 yds to the ARST 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Kyle Thomas for 5 yds to the ARST 33

2nd & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.61

Antario Brown run for 1 yd to the ARST 32

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.96

Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete

4th & 4Passing Touchdown+32 ydsPPA +4.59

Tom Foley pass complete to Kanon Woodill for 32 yds for a TD (Rocky Lombardi pass to Trayvon Rudolph for Two-Point Conversion)

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.25

Jaylen Raynor run for 9 yds to the ARST 34

2nd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -1.28

Ja'Quez Cross run for no gain to the ARST 34

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.95

Jaylen Raynor run for 2 yds to the ARST 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.38

Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 9 yds to the ARST 45

2nd & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.44

Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Reagan Ealy

3rd & 1Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.36

Zak Wallace run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +1.03

Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 20 yds to the NIU 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

Northern Illinois Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the NIU 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.32

Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Cedric Hawkins run for 5 yds to the NIU 10

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete

4th & 5Field Goal Good+28 yds

Dominic Zvada 28 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+32 ydsPPA +2.73

Antario Brown run for 32 yds to the ARST 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.49

Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 7 yds to the ARST 36

2nd & 3Rush+18 ydsPPA +0.27

Gavin Williams run for 3 yds to the ARST 33 for a 1ST down Arkansas State Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (15 Yards) to the ARST 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-5 ydsPPA -0.81

Justin Lynch run for a loss of 5 yards to the ARST 23

2nd & 15Rush0 ydsPPA -0.68

Antario Brown run for no gain to the ARST 23

3rd & 15Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Gavin Williams for 4 yds to the ARST 19

4th & 11Field Goal Missed+36 yds

Kanon Woodill 36 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.24

Jaylen Raynor run for 3 yds to the ARST 23

2nd & 7Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.10

Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Ja'Quez Cross for 9 yds to the ARST 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.93

Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.25

Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Reagan Ealy

4th & 10Punt0 yds

William Przystup punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Dane Pardridge at the NIU 25

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Gavin Williams run for 2 yds to the NIU 27

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete

3rd & 8Rush+11 ydsPPA +2.06

Gavin Williams run for 11 yds to the NIU 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.03

Rocky Lombardi run for 11 yds to the NIU 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.13

Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Grayson Barnes for 5 yds to the ARST 46

3rd & 5Pass Interception Return+28 ydsPPA -2.02

Rocky Lombardi pass intercepted Samy Johnson return for 28 yds to the ARST 41

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.14

Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.30

Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Miller McCrumby for 6 yds to the ARST 47

3rd & 4Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +2.09

Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Miller McCrumby for 9 yds to the NIU 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +0.65

Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Reagan Ealy for 16 yds to the NIU 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Field Goal Good+45 yds

Dominic Zvada 45 yd FG GOOD

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Ja'Quez Cross run for 6 yds to the ARST 31

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.87

Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.44

Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Miller McCrumby

4th & 4Punt0 yds

William Przystup punt for 55 yds, downed at the NIU 14

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.24

Antario Brown run for 6 yds to the NIU 20

2nd & 4Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.41

Antario Brown run for 6 yds to the NIU 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.61

Antario Brown run for 1 yd to the NIU 27

2nd & 9Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.19

Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 3 yds to the NIU 30

3rd & 6Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +2.53

Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Dane Pardridge for 15 yds to the NIU 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Gavin Williams run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line

3rd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.58

Gavin Williams run for 2 yds to the ARST 48

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Tom Foley punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Courtney Jackson at the ARST 10

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Ja'Quez Cross run for 5 yds to the ARST 15

2nd & 5Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.48

Jaylen Raynor run for a loss of 2 yards to the ARST 13

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.12

Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete

4th & 7Punt+7 yds

William Przystup punt for 46 yds , Dane Pardridge returns for 7 yds to the NIU 48

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.60

Antario Brown run for a loss of 2 yards to the NIU 46

2nd & 12Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.53

Antario Brown run for 2 yds to the NIU 48

3rd & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.41

Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Gavin Williams for 2 yds to the 50 yard line

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Tom Foley punt for 47 yds, downed at the ARST 3

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Jaylen Raynor run for 4 yds to the ARST 7

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Zak Wallace run for 3 yds to the ARST 10

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.19

Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete

4th & 3Punt0 yds

William Przystup punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Dane Pardridge at the NIU 46

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Antario Brown run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Antario Brown run for 3 yds to the ARST 47

3rd & 3Pass Reception+35 ydsPPA +2.24

Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Grayson Barnes for 35 yds to the ARST 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.11

Antario Brown run for 6 yds to the ARST 6

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete

4th & 4Field Goal Missed+23 yds

Kanon Woodill 23 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.14

Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Ja'Quez Cross for 15 yds to the ARST 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Ja'Quez Cross for 5 yds to the ARST 40

2nd & 5Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.86

Jaylen Raynor run for 5 yds to the ARST 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Ja'Quez Cross run for 4 yds to the ARST 49

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Jaylen Raynor run for 3 yds to the NIU 48

3rd & 3Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.52

Zak Wallace run for 5 yds to the NIU 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.94

Ja'Quez Cross run for no gain to the NIU 43

2nd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.29

Ja'Quez Cross run for 6 yds to the NIU 37

3rd & 4Sack-6 ydsPPA -2.26

Jaylen Raynor sacked by Raishein Thomas and Jalonnie Williams for a loss of 6 yards to the NIU 43

4th & 10Punt0 yds

William Przystup punt for 43 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.69

Gavin Williams run for 10 yds to the NIU 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.55

Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Billy Dozier for 2 yds to the NIU 32

2nd & 8Rush-5 ydsPPA -0.93

Trayvon Rudolph run for a loss of 5 yards to the NIU 27

3rd & 13Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.58

Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Kyle Thomas for 12 yds to the NIU 39

4th & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA +2.13

Rocky Lombardi run for 4 yds to the NIU 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.39

Gavin Williams run for 6 yds to the NIU 49

2nd & 4Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.72

Antario Brown run for 8 yds to the ARST 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-5 ydsPPA -2.05

Antario Brown run for a loss of 5 yards to the ARST 48

2nd & 15Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.29

Gavin Williams run for a loss of 3 yards to the NIU 49

3rd & 18Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.08

Gavin Williams run for 4 yds to the ARST 47

4th & 14Punt0 yds

Tom Foley punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Courtney Jackson at the ARST 14

1st & 10Pass Reception+32 ydsPPA +2.48

Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 32 yds to the ARST 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+23 ydsPPA +1.34

Jaylen Raynor run for 23 yds to the NIU 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.58

Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.34

Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 7 yds to the NIU 24

3rd & 3Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.52

Ja'Quez Cross run for 8 yds to the NIU 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.40

Ja'Quez Cross run for a loss of 1 yard to the NIU 17

2nd & 11Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Jaylen Raynor run for 4 yds to the NIU 13

3rd & 7Passing Touchdown+13 ydsPPA +3.01

Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 13 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)

3rd & 7Penalty-5 yds

Arkansas State Penalty, Offensive Offside (-5 Yards) to the ARST 30

3rd & 12Kickoff Return (Offense)+28 yds

Dominic Zvada kickoff for 30 yds , Grayson Barnes return for 28 yds to the ARST 32

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.25

Antario Brown run for 12 yds to the ARST 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.55

TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the ARST 22

Situational Analysis

Arkansas State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
52%
25 plays
2nd
0%
2 plays
33%
6 plays
83%
6 plays
33%
3 plays
3rd
80%
5 plays
20%
5 plays
33%
3 plays
100%
1 play
4th
0%
1 play

Northern Illinois

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
50%
32 plays
2nd
67%
3 plays
60%
5 plays
38%
8 plays
20%
5 plays
3rd
100%
2 plays
33%
6 plays
67%
3 plays
60%
5 plays
4th
100%
1 play
100%
1 play