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← Back to GamesDec 23, 2023Week 1
TroyTroy
10
-Final
17
DukeDuke

House Prediction

Model Margin

Troy by 13.4

Home Win Probability

Duke 24%

Market (Bovada)

Duke +7

Edge: Troy -7 (6.4 pts)

fitted_v1 · Dec 23, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
TroyTroy
003710
DukeDuke
860317

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q40148-011-014-014-317-317-10
DukeTroy

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20TRODUKTRODUKTRODUKTRODUKTRODUKTRODUKDUKTRODUKTRODUKTRODUKTRODUKTRODUKPUNT516ydTO27ydMISS57ydPUNT3-2ydPUNT513ydTD764ydPUNT425ydDOWNS533ydDOWNS520ydFG1150ydPUNT30ydEND1754ydPUNT424ydDOWNS1254ydPUNT37ydFG1053ydFG647ydDOWNS523ydTO310ydTD1087ydPUNT732ydTO215ydEND2-3yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Troy and Duke
StatisticTroyDuke
Passing22-3819-29
Pass Yards241183
Rush Yards89147
Total Yards330330
Turnovers12
3rd Down3-125-12
Penalties5-586-53
Possession27:5632:04

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Troy
passing
Gunnar Watson
21/36, 230 YDS, 1 INT
rushing
Kimani Vidal
17 CAR, 79 YDS
receiving
Jabre Barber
10 REC, 107 YDS
defense
Duke
passing
Grayson Loftis
19/29, 183 YDS, 1 INT
rushing
Jaquez Moore
14 CAR, 73 YDS
receiving
Sahmir Hagans
5 REC, 55 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+16 yds

Charlie Ham kickoff for 64 yds , Devonte Ross return for 16 yds to the TROY 17

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.02

Kimani Vidal run for 9 yds to the TROY 26

2nd & 6Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.94

Kimani Vidal run for 7 yds to the TROY 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.96

Gunnar Watson pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception-3 ydsPPA -0.73

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for a loss of 3 yards to the TROY 30

3rd & 13Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.07

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kimani Vidal for 3 yds to the TROY 33

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Robert Cole punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jalon Calhoun at the DUKE 30

1st & 10Penalty+8 yds

Loftis, Grayson pass incomplete to Bolyard, Vance, PENALTY TROY pass interference 8 yards to the DUKE38, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN DUKE.

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.89

Jordan Waters run for 1 yd to the DUKE 39

2nd & 9Sack-2 ydsPPA -1.00

Grayson Loftis sacked by T.J. Jackson for a loss of 2 yards to the DUKE 37 Grayson Loftis fumbled, forced by T.J. Jackson, recovered by TROY Dell Pettus , return for 0 yards

1st & 10Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +0.48

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 21 yds to the DUKE 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.33

Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Chris Lewis

2nd & 10Penalty-10 yds

Vidal, Kimani rush for 16 yards to the DUKE0, PENALTY TROY holding 10 yards to the DUKE26, NO PLAY.

2nd & 20Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.31

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 3 yds to the DUKE 23

3rd & 17Sack-7 ydsPPA -2.22

Gunnar Watson sacked by Aeneas Peebles for a loss of 7 yards to the DUKE 30

4th & 24Field Goal Missed+47 yds

Scott Taylor Renfroe 47 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.36

Jordan Waters run for 3 yds to the DUKE 33

2nd & 7Penalty-5 yds

Duke Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the DUKE 28

2nd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.34

Grayson Loftis pass incomplete to Jordan Waters

3rd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.16

Grayson Loftis pass incomplete to Nicky Dalmolin

4th & 12Punt+61 yds

Porter Wilson punt for 51 yds, downed at the TROY 21 Troy Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the TROY 11

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.15

Kimani Vidal run for 3 yds to the TROY 14

2nd & 7Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.06

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Peyton Higgins for 14 yds to the TROY 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.66

Kimani Vidal run for 1 yd to the TROY 29

2nd & 9Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.21

Damien Taylor run for 3 yds to the TROY 32

3rd & 6Sack-8 ydsPPA -0.61

Gunnar Watson sacked by Wesley Williams and Vincent Anthony Jr. for a loss of 8 yards to the TROY 24

4th & 14Punt0 yds

Robert Cole punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jalon Calhoun at the DUKE 36

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.64

Jaquez Moore run for 2 yds to the DUKE 38

2nd & 8Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.70

Jaquez Moore run for 9 yds to the DUKE 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.90

Grayson Loftis pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 8 yds to the TROY 45

2nd & 2Rush+18 ydsPPA +0.45

Jaquez Moore run for 18 yds to the TROY 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.49

Jaylen Coleman run for no gain to the TROY 27

2nd & 10Pass Reception+26 ydsPPA +2.29

Grayson Loftis pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 26 yds to the TROY 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +0.94

Jaylen Coleman run for 1 yd for a TD (N. Dalmolin Run For Two-point Conversion)

1st & 10Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +1.98

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 37 yds to the DUKE 38 for a 1ST down Troy Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the TROY 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.15

Kimani Vidal run for no gain to the TROY 47

2nd & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.39

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Peyton Higgins for 3 yds to the 50 yard line

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.84

Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Jabre Barber

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Robert Cole punt for 50 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +2.02

Grayson Loftis pass complete to Jordan Moore for 24 yds to the DUKE 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.26

Grayson Loftis pass complete to Jordan Moore for 9 yds to the TROY 47

2nd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -1.31

Jaylen Coleman run for no gain to the TROY 47

3rd & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.19

Grayson Loftis pass incomplete to Jontavis Robertson

4th & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -1.38

Jaylen Coleman run for no gain to the TROY 47

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.80

Chris Lewis pass complete to Asa Martin for 11 yds to the DUKE 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.10

Kimani Vidal run for 4 yds to the DUKE 38

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.96

Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Jabre Barber

3rd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.39

Kimani Vidal run for 3 yds to the DUKE 35

4th & 3Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -2.26

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 2 yds to the DUKE 33

1st & 10Pass Reception-9 ydsPPA -1.75

Grayson Loftis pass complete to Jordan Waters for 1 yd to the DUKE 34 Duke Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the DUKE 24

1st & 19Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.12

Jordan Waters run for 6 yds to the DUKE 30

2nd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Grayson Loftis pass incomplete to Jordan Waters

3rd & 13Penalty+15 yds

Loftis, Grayson pass incomplete to Moore, Jordan, PENALTY TROY pass interference 15 yards to the DUKE45, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN DUKE.

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.68

Jordan Waters run for 2 yds to the DUKE 47

2nd & 8Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -1.05

Grayson Loftis pass complete to Nicky Dalmolin for no gain to the DUKE 47

3rd & 8Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +2.77

Grayson Loftis pass complete to Sean Brown for 12 yds to the TROY 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +0.65

Grayson Loftis pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 23 yds to the TROY 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.27

Jaquez Moore run for 1 yd to the TROY 17

2nd & 9Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.21

Jaquez Moore run for 2 yds to the TROY 15

3rd & 7Pass Reception-2 ydsPPA -0.80

Grayson Loftis pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for a loss of 2 yards to the TROY 17

4th & 9Field Goal Good+34 yds

Todd Pelino 34 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Ethan Conner

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Jabre Barber

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.16

Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Jabre Barber

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Robert Cole punt for 48 yds, downed at the DUKE 27

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.77

Grayson Loftis pass incomplete to Jordan Moore

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Jaquez Moore run for 4 yds to the DUKE 31

3rd & 6Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +1.72

Grayson Loftis pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 6 yds to the DUKE 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Grayson Loftis pass complete to Jeremiah Hasley for 6 yds to the DUKE 43

2nd & 4Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.72

Jaquez Moore run for 6 yds to the DUKE 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Jaquez Moore run for 5 yds to the TROY 46

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Grayson Loftis pass incomplete to Jaquez Moore

3rd & 5Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +1.84

Grayson Loftis pass complete to Sean Brown for 7 yds to the TROY 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.81

Grayson Loftis pass incomplete to Sahmir Hagans

2nd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.26

Jaylen Coleman run for 6 yds to the TROY 33

3rd & 4Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.93

Jaylen Coleman run for 5 yds to the TROY 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

Grayson Loftis pass incomplete to Jordan Moore

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.22

Jordan Waters run for 3 yds to the TROY 25

3rd & 7Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.92

Grayson Loftis pass complete to Jordan Waters for 8 yds to the TROY 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.11

Jordan Waters run for 3 yds to the TROY 14

2nd & 7Penalty-10 yds

Waters, Jordan rush for 5 yards to the TROY9, PENALTY DUKE holding 10 yards to the TROY24, NO PLAY.

2nd & 17Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.03

Jaquez Moore run for 5 yds to the TROY 19

3rd & 12Field Goal Good+37 yds

Todd Pelino 37 yd FG GOOD

0th & 12End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+22 ydsPPA +1.98

Jordan Waters run for 22 yds to the DUKE 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-5 ydsPPA -2.16

Grayson Loftis sacked by Richard Jibunor for a loss of 5 yards to the DUKE 42

2nd & 15Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.41

Grayson Loftis pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 7 yds to the DUKE 49

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.76

Grayson Loftis pass incomplete to Jordan Moore

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Porter Wilson punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Jabre Barber at the TROY 3

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.31

Kimani Vidal run for 7 yds to the TROY 10

2nd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.01

Kimani Vidal run for 4 yds to the TROY 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.42

Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Jabre Barber

2nd & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.30

Kimani Vidal run for 8 yds to the TROY 22

3rd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.70

Kimani Vidal run for 3 yds to the TROY 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Ethan Conner for 4 yds to the TROY 29

2nd & 6Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.82

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Devonte Ross for 15 yds to the TROY 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.02

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 13 yds to the DUKE 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.94

Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Chris Lewis

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.06

Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Asa Martin

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.91

Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Devonte Ross

4th & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.74

Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Chris Lewis

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.69

Jaquez Moore run for 2 yds to the DUKE 45

2nd & 8Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.35

Jaquez Moore run for 6 yds to the TROY 49

3rd & 2Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.31

Jaquez Moore run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard line

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Porter Wilson punt for 50 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.53

Kimani Vidal run for 7 yds to the TROY 27

2nd & 3Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.20

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Clayton Ollendieck for 14 yds to the TROY 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.14

Kimani Vidal run for no gain to the TROY 41

2nd & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +2.45

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Peyton Higgins for 16 yds to the DUKE 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.31

Kimani Vidal run for 3 yds to the DUKE 40

2nd & 7Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.92

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Ethan Conner for 13 yds to the DUKE 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.49

Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Chris Lewis

2nd & 10Pass Reception-4 ydsPPA -1.44

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Devonte Ross for a loss of 4 yards to the DUKE 31

3rd & 14Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Kimani Vidal run for 4 yds to the DUKE 27

4th & 10Field Goal Good+44 yds

Scott Taylor Renfroe 44 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.93

Grayson Loftis pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 11 yds to the DUKE 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+28 ydsPPA +2.14

Grayson Loftis pass complete to Jaylen Coleman for 28 yds to the TROY 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.38

Grayson Loftis pass complete to Jaylen Coleman for 2 yds to the TROY 34

2nd & 8Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.40

Jordan Waters run for 7 yds to the TROY 27

3rd & 1Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -0.99

Grayson Loftis pass complete to Nicky Dalmolin for a loss of 1 yard to the TROY 28

4th & 2Field Goal Good+45 yds

Todd Pelino 45 yd FG GOOD

4th & 2Kickoff Return (Offense)+22 yds

Charlie Ham kickoff for 63 yds , Jabre Barber return for 22 yds to the TROY 24

1st & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +1.29

Asa Martin run for 15 yds to the TROY 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)-1 ydsPPA -1.30

Gunnar Watson run for a loss of 1 yard to the TROY 38 Gunnar Watson fumbled, recovered by TROY Clayton Ollendieck

2nd & 11Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.54

Asa Martin run for 1 yd to the TROY 39

3rd & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.47

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 8 yds to the TROY 47

4th & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -0.78

Gunnar Watson run for no gain to the TROY 47

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.77

Grayson Loftis pass complete to Jordan Moore for 8 yds to the TROY 39

2nd & 2Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.21

Jaylen Coleman run for 2 yds to the TROY 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -3.95

Grayson Loftis pass intercepted Damaje Yancey return for no gain to the TROY 13

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.42

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 7 yds to the TROY 20

2nd & 3Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.58

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 10 yds to the TROY 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.35

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 9 yds to the TROY 39

2nd & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.39

Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Jabre Barber

3rd & 1Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.97

Kimani Vidal run for 12 yds to the DUKE 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Kimani Vidal run for 4 yds to the DUKE 45

2nd & 6Pass Reception+38 ydsPPA +1.70

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Peyton Higgins for 30 yds to the DUKE 15 for a 1ST down Duke Penalty, Roughing Passer (8 Yards) to the DUKE 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.13

Gunnar Watson run for 5 yds to the DUKE 2

2nd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

Jabre Barber pass incomplete to Chris Lewis

3rd & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +2.54

Derrick Graham run for 2 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)

3rd & 5Penalty+15 yds

Duke Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the 50 yard line

3rd & -10Kickoff Return (Offense)0 yds

Scott Taylor Renfroe kickoff for 32 yds , Jontavis Robertson return for no gain to the DUKE 18

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.27

Jaquez Moore run for 6 yds to the DUKE 24

2nd & 4Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.70

Jaquez Moore run for 8 yds to the DUKE 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.19

Jordan Waters run for a loss of 2 yards to the DUKE 30

2nd & 12Rush+21 ydsPPA +2.95

Jordan Waters run for 21 yds to the TROY 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.10

Jordan Waters run for no gain to the TROY 49

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.63

Jaylen Coleman run for 2 yds to the TROY 47

3rd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.55

Jaylen Coleman run for 2 yds to the TROY 45

4th & 6Penalty-5 yds

Duke Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the 50 yard line

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Porter Wilson punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TROY 11

1st & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +0.76

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Ethan Conner for 15 yds to the TROY 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -0.99

Gunnar Watson pass intercepted Jeremiah Lewis return for no gain to the 50 yard line

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.35

TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the DUKE 49

2nd & 11Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.28

TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the DUKE 47

Situational Analysis

Troy

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
43%
28 plays
2nd
40%
5 plays
75%
4 plays
40%
10 plays
0%
2 plays
3rd
100%
3 plays
0%
2 plays
25%
4 plays
0%
3 plays
4th
0%
2 plays
0%
1 play

Duke

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
38%
29 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
33%
3 plays
67%
3 plays
45%
11 plays
50%
6 plays
3rd
0%
3 plays
100%
3 plays
40%
5 plays
0%
1 play
4th
0%
1 play