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← Back to GamesOct 28, 2023Week 9
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Samford by 30.4

Home Win Probability

Samford 95%

Market (Caesars Sportsbook (Colorado))

Samford -24

Edge: Samford -24 (6.4 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 28, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
The Citadel
00707
Samford
14160737

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428427-014-020-027-030-030-737-7
SamfordThe Citadel

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20TCSAMTCSAMSAMTCSAMTCSAMTCSAMSAMTCSAMTCSAMTCSAMTCSAMTCSAMDOWNS1137ydTD860ydPUNT38ydPUNT515ydTD427ydPUNT620ydTD784ydPUNT517ydTD691ydPUNT38ydFG1459ydMISS956ydPUNT632ydPUNT3-5ydTD665ydPUNT430ydDOWNS1153ydTD574ydDOWNS1059ydPUNT516ydDOWNS40ydEND1-3yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing The Citadel and Samford
StatisticThe CitadelSamford
Passing11-2226-36
Pass Yards122353
Rush Yards186151
Total Yards308504
Turnovers20
3rd Down4-155-11
Penalties4-305-50
Possession34:4625:14

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

The Citadel
passing
Graeson Underwood
11/22, 122 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Johnny Crawford III
12 CAR, 62 YDS
receiving
Jay Graves-Billips
2 REC, 42 YDS, 1 TD
Samford
passing
Michael Hiers
26/36, 353 YDS, 3 TD
rushing
Jay Stanton
13 CAR, 96 YDS, 2 TD
receiving
Chandler Smith
7 REC, 167 YDS

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.78

Cooper Wallace run for 10 yds to the CIT 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.96

Hi'keem Elmore run for no gain to the CIT 33

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.54

Graeson Underwood pass incomplete

3rd & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +2.56

Johnny Crawford III run for 11 yds to the CIT 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Johnny Crawford III run for 3 yds to the CIT 47

2nd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.42

Jay Graves-Billips run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line

3rd & 4Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.74

Hi'keem Elmore run for 5 yds to the SAM 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.33

Cooper Wallace run for 3 yds to the SAM 42

2nd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.60

Cooper Wallace run for 2 yds to the SAM 40

3rd & 5Rush0 ydsPPA -1.08

Jay Graves-Billips run for no gain to the SAM 40

4th & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.51

Graeson Underwood pass incomplete

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.99

Michael Hiers pass complete to Brendan Jenkins for 11 yds to the CIT 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.62

Michael Hiers pass complete to D.J. Rias for 10 yds to the CIT 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.44

Jay Stanton run for 2 yds to the CIT 37

2nd & 8Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.84

Michael Hiers pass complete to R.J. Starkey for 10 yds to the CIT 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.19

Michael Hiers pass complete to Brendan Jenkins for 13 yds to the CIT 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.30

Jay Stanton run for 7 yds to the CIT 7

2nd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.43

Michael Hiers pass incomplete

3rd & 3Passing Touchdown+7 ydsPPA +2.67

Michael Hiers pass complete to Jay Stanton for 7 yds for a TD (Wilson Beaverstock KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Hi'keem Elmore run for 3 yds to the CIT 28

2nd & 7Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.70

Hi'keem Elmore run for a loss of 2 yards to the CIT 26

3rd & 9Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.17

Jay Graves-Billips run for 7 yds to the CIT 33

4th & 2Punt0 yds

James Platte punt for 51 yds , Chandler Smith returns for no gain Samford Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jamari Cannon) to the SAM 20

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.11

Michael Hiers pass complete to Damonta Witherspoon for 9 yds to the SAM 29

2nd & 1Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.03

Damonta Witherspoon run for 6 yds to the SAM 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -1.01

Michael Hiers pass complete to Damonta Witherspoon for no gain to the SAM 35

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.60

Michael Hiers pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Michael Hiers pass incomplete

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Will Thorley punt for 34 yds , returns for no gain to the CIT 27

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.37

Jay Stanton run for 1 yd to the CIT 26

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.62

Michael Hiers pass incomplete

3rd & 9Rush+20 ydsPPA +1.68

Michael Hiers run for 20 yds to the CIT 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Rushing Touchdown+6 ydsPPA +2.05

Jay Stanton run for 6 yds for a TD (Wilson Beaverstock KICK)

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.25

Cooper Wallace run for 9 yds to the CIT 34

2nd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -1.28

Cooper Wallace run for no gain to the CIT 34

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.05

Hi'keem Elmore run for 3 yds to the CIT 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.07

Johnny Crawford III run for no gain to the CIT 37

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.43

Graeson Underwood run for 2 yds to the CIT 39

3rd & 8Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.19

Johnny Crawford III run for 6 yds to the CIT 45

4th & 2Punt0 yds

James Platte punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Chandler Smith at the SAM 16

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.46

Damonta Witherspoon run for no gain to the SAM 16

2nd & 10Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +2.19

Michael Hiers pass complete to Chandler Smith for 23 yds to the SAM 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.11

Michael Hiers pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.31

Damonta Witherspoon run for 3 yds to the SAM 42

3rd & 7Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +2.51

Michael Hiers pass complete to Michael Vice for 9 yds to the CIT 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.34

Michael Hiers pass complete to D.J. Rias for 6 yds to the CIT 43

2nd & 4Passing Touchdown+43 ydsPPA +3.43

Michael Hiers pass complete to Iaan Cousin for 43 yds for a TD (Wilson Beaverstock PAT BLOCKED)

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.86

Cooper Wallace run for no gain to the CIT 30

2nd & 10Penalty+10 yds

Samford Penalty, Defensive Holding (Joshua Mathiasen) to the CIT 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.38

Romello Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the CIT 44

2nd & 11Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.35

Cooper Wallace run for 3 yds to the CIT 47

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Graeson Underwood pass incomplete

4th & 8Punt0 yds

James Platte punt for 53 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+41 ydsPPA +2.98

Michael Hiers pass complete to Chandler Smith for 41 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.59

Michael Hiers pass complete to Ty King for 7 yds to the CIT 43

2nd & 3Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +0.57

Michael Hiers pass complete to Chandler Smith for 19 yds to the CIT 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.23

Jay Stanton run for 2 yds to the CIT 22

2nd & 8Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.49

Michael Hiers pass complete to Chandler Smith for 13 yds to the CIT 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Passing Touchdown+9 ydsPPA +2.42

Michael Hiers pass complete to E. Jai Mason for 9 yds for a TD (Wilson Beaverstock KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.73

Graeson Underwood pass complete to Johnny Crawford III for no gain to the CIT 26

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Hi'keem Elmore run for 5 yds to the CIT 31

3rd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.17

Johnny Crawford III run for 3 yds to the CIT 34

4th & 2Punt0 yds

James Platte punt for 44 yds, downed at the SAM 22

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.40

Mychael Hamilton run for 2 yds to the SAM 24

2nd & 8Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.33

Michael Hiers pass complete to Brendan Jenkins for 10 yds to the SAM 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Mychael Hamilton run for 4 yds to the SAM 38

2nd & 6Penalty+15 yds

The Citadel Penalty, Personal Foul (Brian Horn) to the CIT 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.32

Michael Hiers pass complete to Brendan Jenkins for 6 yds to the CIT 41

2nd & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.82

Mychael Hamilton run for 1 yd to the CIT 40

3rd & 3Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.24

Michael Hiers pass complete to Chandler Smith for 8 yds to the CIT 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.61

Michael Hiers pass complete to Brendan Jenkins for no gain to the CIT 32

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.83

Michael Hiers pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.66

Michael Hiers pass complete to D.J. Rias for 10 yds to the CIT 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.40

Michael Hiers pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.52

Michael Hiers pass incomplete

3rd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.26

Mychael Hamilton run for 3 yds to the CIT 19

4th & 7Field Goal Good+37 yds

Wilson Beaverstock 37 yd FG GOOD

0th & 0End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.81

Michael Hiers pass complete to Jay Stanton for 10 yds to the SAM 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.99

Jay Stanton run for no gain to the SAM 34

2nd & 10Pass Reception+36 ydsPPA +3.51

Michael Hiers pass complete to Chandler Smith for 36 yds to the CIT 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Michael Hiers run for 5 yds to the CIT 25

2nd & 5Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.21

Michael Hiers pass complete to Brendan Jenkins for 13 yds to the CIT 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.17

Jay Stanton run for 2 yds to the CIT 10

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Michael Hiers pass incomplete

3rd & 8Sack-10 ydsPPA -2.08

Michael Hiers sacked by Chris Benton for a loss of 10 yards to the CIT 20

4th & 18Field Goal Missed+39 yds

Wilson Beaverstock 39 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Hi'keem Elmore run for 4 yds to the CIT 24

2nd & 6Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.87

Hi'keem Elmore run for 7 yds to the CIT 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+19 ydsPPA +1.77

Jay Graves-Billips run for 19 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.63

Hi'keem Elmore run for 2 yds to the SAM 48

2nd & 8Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.31

Jay Graves-Billips run for a loss of 1 yard to the SAM 49

3rd & 9Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.65

Johnny Crawford III run for 1 yd to the SAM 48

4th & 8Punt0 yds

James Platte punt for 48 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.36

Damonta Witherspoon run for 2 yds to the SAM 22

2nd & 8Penalty-10 yds

HIERS, Michael pass to the right incomplete dropped by COUSIN, Iaan thrown to the SAM28. PENALTY SAM Holding on MOTLEY-SIMMONS, Jayme enforced 10 yards from the SAM22 to the SAM12 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

2nd & 18Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.03

Michael Hiers pass complete to Iaan Cousin for 3 yds to the SAM 15

3rd & 15Rush0 ydsPPA -0.05

Michael Hiers run for no gain to the SAM 15

4th & 15Punt0 yds

Will Thorley punt for 41 yds , Tyler Cherry returns for no gain to the CIT 35

2nd & 3Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.92

Johnny Crawford III run for 11 yds to the SAM 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.13

Johnny Crawford III run for 4 yds to the SAM 43

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.09

Graeson Underwood pass incomplete

3rd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.40

Hi'keem Elmore run for 3 yds to the SAM 40

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.71

Johnny Crawford III run for 7 yds to the CIT 42

4th & 3Passing Touchdown+40 ydsPPA +5.23

Graeson Underwood pass complete to Jay Graves-Billips for 40 yds for a TD (Colby Kintner KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+27 ydsPPA +2.39

Michael Hiers pass complete to Chandler Smith for 27 yds to the CIT 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.60

Jay Stanton run for 2 yds to the CIT 46

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.10

Michael Hiers pass incomplete

3rd & 8Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.75

Chandler Smith run for 1 yd to the CIT 45

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Will Thorley punt for 24 yds, fair catch by Tyler Cherry at the CIT 21

1st & 10Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +1.57

Graeson Underwood pass complete to Dervon Pesnell for 19 yds to the CIT 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.12

Graeson Underwood pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.53

Johnny Crawford III run for 7 yds to the CIT 47

3rd & 3Rush0 ydsPPA -0.97

Hi'keem Elmore run for no gain to the CIT 47

4th & 3Penalty-5 yds

The Citadel Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the CIT 42

4th & 8Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +3.37

Graeson Underwood pass complete to Tyler Cherry for 12 yds to the SAM 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.31

Johnny Crawford III run for 6 yds to the SAM 40

2nd & 4Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.44

Romello Jones run for 11 yds to the SAM 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.17

Johnny Crawford III run for 3 yds to the SAM 26

2nd & 7Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.20

Graeson Underwood pass complete to Tyler Cherry for 6 yds to the SAM 20

3rd & 1Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.75

Jay Graves-Billips run for a loss of 1 yard to the SAM 21

4th & 2Penalty-5 yds

The Citadel Penalty, False Start (Sawyer Whitman) to the SAM 26

4th & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -2.61

Graeson Underwood pass incomplete

1st & 10Rush+19 ydsPPA +1.73

Jay Stanton run for 19 yds to the SAM 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.23

Jay Stanton run for 9 yds to the CIT 46

2nd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.31

Jay Stanton run for 3 yds to the CIT 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.29

Jay Stanton run for 6 yds to the CIT 37

2nd & 4Rushing Touchdown+37 ydsPPA +3.06

Jay Stanton run for 37 yds for a TD (Wilson Beaverstock KICK)

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

UNDERWOOD, Graeson pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for CONWAY, Ricky thrown to the CIT45. PENALTY SAM Pass Interference on STEWARD, Midnight enforced 15 yards to the CIT40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Graeson Underwood pass complete to Malachi Taylor for 6 yds to the CIT 46

2nd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.46

Graeson Underwood run for 3 yds to the CIT 49

3rd & 1Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.27

Hayden Johnson run for 5 yds to the SAM 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.31

Graeson Underwood pass complete to Hayden Johnson for 6 yds to the SAM 40

2nd & 4Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.42

Graeson Underwood pass complete to Tyler Cherry for 10 yds to the SAM 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.22

Graeson Underwood pass complete to Johnny Crawford III for 12 yds to the SAM 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.19

Graeson Underwood pass complete to Jay Graves-Billips for 2 yds to the SAM 16

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.38

Graeson Underwood pass incomplete

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.55

Graeson Underwood pass incomplete

4th & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -3.28

Graeson Underwood pass incomplete

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.30

Damonta Witherspoon run for 2 yds to the SAM 18

2nd & 8Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.87

Quincy Crittendon run for 8 yds to the SAM 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.93

Damonta Witherspoon run for a loss of 2 yards to the SAM 24

2nd & 12Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.22

Damonta Witherspoon run for 1 yd to the SAM 25

3rd & 11Penalty-5 yds

Samford Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the SAM 20

3rd & 16Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.28

Quincy Crittendon run for 12 yds to the SAM 32

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Will Thorley punt for 37 yds

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.89

Graeson Underwood pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.85

Graeson Underwood pass complete to Landon Owens for 9 yds to the CIT 40

3rd & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.89

Graeson Underwood pass incomplete

4th & 1Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+15 ydsPPA -0.46

Hayden Johnson run for 15 yds to the CIT 31 Hayden Johnson fumbled, recovered by SAM Tyrese Ross [NHSG] JOHNSON, Hayden rush up the middle for a gain of 15 yards, JOHNSON, Hayden fumbled at CIT48 forced by MILLER, Kiylan, recovered by SAM ROSS, Tyrese at the SAM45, returned 24 yards to the CIT31 (TEAM;MILLER, Kiylan); CIT turnover on downs, clock 00:24.

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.58

[NHSG] Kneel down by SCALZO, Nik at CIT34 (team loss of 3), clock 00:00.

Situational Analysis

The Citadel

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
38%
24 plays
2nd
50%
2 plays
60%
5 plays
36%
11 plays
0%
1 play
3rd
40%
5 plays
25%
4 plays
50%
6 plays
4th
50%
2 plays
0%
1 play
33%
3 plays

Samford

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
48%
33 plays
2nd
50%
4 plays
75%
4 plays
46%
13 plays
0%
2 plays
3rd
100%
2 plays
43%
7 plays
50%
2 plays
4th