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← Back to GamesOct 28, 2023Week 9
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Villanova by 36.6

Home Win Probability

Villanova 97%

Market (William Hill (New Jersey))

Villanova -27.5

Edge: Villanova -27.5 (9.1 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 28, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Stony Brook
700613
Villanova
14207748

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q40142842567-714-721-728-734-741-748-748-13
VillanovaStony Brook

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20VILSBVILSBVILSBVILSBVILSBSBVILSBSBVILSBVILSBVILSBVILSBVILSBDOWNS49ydMISS717ydTD280ydTD980ydTD675ydPUNT39ydTD871ydPUNT38ydTD264ydPUNT820ydTO2-2ydTD382ydEND23ydPUNT3-1ydPUNT516ydPUNT34ydTD757ydPUNT610ydTD676ydPUNT720ydPUNT31ydPUNT418ydPUNT31ydTD1170yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Stony Brook and Villanova
StatisticStony BrookVillanova
Passing22-3717-23
Pass Yards198398
Rush Yards96158
Total Yards294556
Turnovers11
3rd Down7-165-9
Penalties7-383-24
Possession35:1224:48

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Stony Brook
passing
Casey Case
12/22, 113 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Roland Dempster
12 CAR, 55 YDS
receiving
Anthony Johnson
11 REC, 90 YDS
Villanova
passing
Connor Watkins
13/19, 361 YDS, 4 TD
rushing
Jalen Jackson
8 CAR, 77 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Rayjoun Pringle
5 REC, 196 YDS, 1 TD

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Jalen Jackson run for 5 yds to the VILL 30

2nd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.48

Jalen Jackson run for 2 yds to the VILL 32

3rd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.33

Jalen Jackson run for 2 yds to the VILL 34

4th & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.20

TD Ayo-Durojaiye run for no gain to the VILL 34

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.66

Roland Dempster run for no gain to the VILL 34

2nd & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.68

Casey Case pass complete to Jayce Freeman for 9 yds to the VILL 25

3rd & 1Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.30

Roland Dempster run for 5 yds to the VILL 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

Casey Case pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.14

Johnny Martin run for 3 yds to the VILL 17

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Casey Case pass incomplete

4th & 7Field Goal Missed+34 yds

Spencer Biscoe 34 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Pass Reception+75 ydsPPA +4.50

Connor Watkins pass complete to Rayjuon Pringle for 75 yds to the STBK 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Rushing Touchdown+5 ydsPPA +1.88

TD Ayo-Durojaiye run for 5 yds for a TD (Matthew Mercurio KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.14

Casey Case pass complete to Cole Bunicci for 15 yds to the STBK 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +1.70

Casey Case pass complete to Dez Williams for 19 yds to the VILL 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.57

Casey Case pass complete to Jayce Freeman for 11 yds to the VILL 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.29

Casey Case pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 11 yds to the VILL 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.47

Johnny Martin run for 8 yds to the VILL 16

2nd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.54

Casey Case pass incomplete

3rd & 2Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.22

Roland Dempster run for 4 yds to the VILL 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Casey Case pass incomplete

2nd & 10Passing Touchdown+12 ydsPPA +2.83

Casey Case pass complete to Dez Williams for 12 yds for a TD (Enda Kirby KICK)

1st & 10Rush+18 ydsPPA +1.61

Connor Watkins run for 18 yds to the VILL 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Connor Watkins run for 4 yds to the VILL 47

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.14

Connor Watkins pass incomplete

3rd & 6Rush+9 ydsPPA +2.36

Connor Watkins run for 9 yds to the STBK 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.75

Jalen Jackson run for 1 yd to the STBK 43

2nd & 9Passing Touchdown+43 ydsPPA +4.16

Connor Watkins pass complete to Jaaron Hayek for 43 yds for a TD (Matthew Mercurio KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+60 yds

Nathan Fondacaro kickoff for 60 yds , return for no gain to the STBK 20 , return for no gain to the STBK 20

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Casey Case pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.39

Johnny Martin run for 8 yds to the STBK 28

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.40

Roland Dempster run for 1 yd to the STBK 29

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Clayton Taylor punt for 47 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.98

Connor Watkins pass complete to Jaaron Hayek for 8 yds to the VILL 37

2nd & 2Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.23

TD Ayo-Durojaiye run for 5 yds to the VILL 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

TD Ayo-Durojaiye run for 4 yds to the VILL 46

2nd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.68

TD Ayo-Durojaiye run for 2 yds to the VILL 48

3rd & 4Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +2.17

Connor Watkins pass complete to Jaaron Hayek for 11 yds to the STBK 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

WATKINS, Connor pass short up the middle complete for 12 yards to BARLEE, DeeWil caught at the STB40 and advanced to the STB29 (HIGGS, Brandon). PENALTY VIL Holding on PICARD, Jake enforced 10 yards from the STB41 to the VIL49 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 20Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

DeeWil Barlee run for 4 yds to the STBK 47

2nd & 16Pass Reception+27 ydsPPA +2.81

Connor Watkins pass complete to Rayjuon Pringle for 27 yds to the STBK 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+20 ydsPPA +2.62

Connor Watkins pass complete to Jaaron Hayek for 20 yds for a TD (Matthew Mercurio KICK)

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Stony Brook Penalty, False Start (D'Angelo McKinnie) to the STBK 10

1st & 15Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.12

Casey Case run for 2 yds to the STBK 12

2nd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.11

Casey Case pass incomplete

3rd & 13Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.20

Ross Tallarico run for 11 yds to the STBK 23

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Clayton Taylor punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jaaron Hayek at the VILL 36

1st & 10Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +1.73

Connor Watkins pass complete to Jaaron Hayek for 20 yds to the STBK 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+44 ydsPPA +3.41

Jalen Jackson run for 44 yds for a TD (Matthew Mercurio KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Casey Case pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 4 yds to the STBK 29

2nd & 6Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.95

Roland Dempster run for 6 yds to the STBK 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Stony Brook Penalty, False Start (Collin Tunc) to the STBK 30

1st & 15Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.65

Johnny Martin run for a loss of 1 yard to the STBK 29

2nd & 16Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.16

Casey Case pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 2 yds to the STBK 31

3rd & 14Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +2.94

Casey Case pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 15 yds to the STBK 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.92

Casey Case pass complete to Jayden Cook for 1 yd to the STBK 47

2nd & 9Penalty-5 yds

Stony Brook Penalty, False Start (Collin Tunc) to the STBK 42

2nd & 14Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.27

Ross Tallarico run for 3 yds to the STBK 45

3rd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

Casey Case pass incomplete

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Clayton Taylor punt for 42 yds , returns for no gain to the VILL 10

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.40

Johnny Martin run for a loss of 2 yards to the VILL 12

2nd & 12Interception0 ydsPPA -4.09

Casey Case pass intercepted

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

Connor Watkins pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.22

Connor Watkins pass complete to Rayjuon Pringle for 11 yds to the VILL 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Villanova Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the VILL 24

1st & 15Passing Touchdown+76 ydsPPA +6.65

Connor Watkins pass complete to Rayjuon Pringle for 76 yds for a TD (Matthew Mercurio PAT BLOCKED)

1st & 10Penalty-4 yds

CASE, Casey pass short to the left complete for 4 yards to JOHNSON, Anthony caught at the STB26 and advanced to the STB29 (MARSHALL, Devon). PENALTY STB Pass Interference on JOHNSON, Anthony enforced half the distance from the goal, 12 yards to the STB13 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 22Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.57

Roland Dempster run for 13 yds to the STBK 26

2nd & 9Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.27

Johnny Martin run for 2 yds to the STBK 28

0th & 9End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Roland Dempster run for no gain to the STBK 25

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Casey Case pass incomplete

3rd & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.18

Ross Tallarico run for a loss of 1 yard to the STBK 24

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Clayton Taylor punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Jaaron Hayek at the VILL 40

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

DeeWil Barlee run for 5 yds to the VILL 45

2nd & 5Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.23

Connor Watkins pass complete to Jaylan Sanchez for 11 yds to the STBK 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.97

Connor Watkins pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Connor Watkins pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.89

Connor Watkins pass incomplete

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Nathan Fondacaro punt for 42 yds

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.25

Casey Case pass incomplete

2nd & 10Penalty0 yds

Stony Brook Penalty, False Start (Jayden Cook) to the STBK 1

2nd & 11Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.02

Johnny Martin run for 5 yds to the STBK 6

3rd & 6Rush0 ydsPPA -0.10

Ross Tallarico run for no gain to the STBK 6

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Clayton Taylor punt for 51 yds

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Jalen Jackson run for 5 yds to the VILL 48

2nd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Jalen Jackson run for 4 yds to the STBK 48

3rd & 1Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +1.28

Connor Watkins pass complete to Rayjuon Pringle for 7 yds to the STBK 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +0.50

Jalen Jackson run for 14 yds to the STBK 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.15

Connor Watkins run for 3 yds to the STBK 24

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.55

Connor Watkins pass incomplete

3rd & 7Passing Touchdown+24 ydsPPA +3.44

Connor Watkins pass complete to Jaylan Sanchez for 24 yds for a TD (Matthew Mercurio KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Casey Case pass complete to Jayden Cook for 3 yds to the STBK 28

2nd & 7Penalty-5 yds

Stony Brook Penalty, False Start (Cole Bunicci) to the STBK 23

2nd & 12Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.86

Casey Case pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 11 yds to the STBK 34

3rd & 1Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.64

run for 9 yds to the STBK 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Roland Dempster run for 3 yds to the STBK 46

2nd & 7Penalty-5 yds

COOK, Jayden pass up the middle complete for 22 yards to CASE, Casey caught at the VIL40 and advanced to the VIL32 (WAXTER, Isas). PENALTY STB Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on MELENDEZ, Kollin enforced 5 yards from the STB46 to the STB41 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

2nd & 12Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.44

Roland Dempster run for 2 yds to the STBK 43

3rd & 10Sack-8 ydsPPA -0.82

Daron Bryden sacked by Jake Reichwein for a loss of 8 yards to the STBK 35

4th & 18Punt0 yds

Clayton Taylor punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jaaron Hayek at the VILL 24

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Isaiah Wright run for 4 yds to the VILL 28

2nd & 6Pass Reception+28 ydsPPA +2.84

Connor Watkins pass complete to Jaylan Sanchez for 28 yds to the STBK 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.53

Isaiah Wright run for 2 yds to the STBK 42

2nd & 8Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -1.06

Tanner Maddocks pass complete to Mitchell Bothwell for no gain to the STBK 42

3rd & 8Pass Reception+40 ydsPPA +3.79

Tanner Maddocks pass complete to Jaylan Sanchez for 40 yds to the STBK 2 for a 1ST down

1st & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +1.21

Isaiah Wright run for 2 yds for a TD (Matthew Mercurio KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Daron Bryden pass complete to Cole Bunicci for 5 yds to the STBK 30

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.75

Daron Bryden pass incomplete

3rd & 5Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +2.18

Daron Bryden pass complete to Cal Redman for 12 yds to the STBK 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.02

Daron Bryden pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 12 yds to the VILL 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.57

Daron Bryden pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 2 yds to the VILL 44

2nd & 8Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -1.31

Daron Bryden pass complete to Anthony Johnson for a loss of 1 yard to the VILL 45

3rd & 9Sack-10 ydsPPA -1.76

Daron Bryden sacked by Turner Inge for a loss of 10 yards to the STBK 45

4th & 19Punt0 yds

Clayton Taylor punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jaaron Hayek at the VILL 14

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.18

Julian Glantz run for 3 yds to the VILL 17

2nd & 7Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.27

Julian Glantz run for 1 yd to the VILL 18

3rd & 6Pass Reception-3 ydsPPA -0.23

Tanner Maddocks pass complete to Julian Glantz for a loss of 3 yards to the VILL 15

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Nathan Fondacaro punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Nick Chimienti at the STBK 43

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.92

Roland Dempster run for 11 yds to the VILL 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.53

Roland Dempster run for 7 yds to the VILL 39

2nd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Daron Bryden pass incomplete

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.11

Daron Bryden pass incomplete

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Clayton Taylor punt for 39 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Penalty-2 yds

Villanova Penalty, Personal Foul (-2 Yards) to the VILL 9

2nd & 21Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.18

Tanner Maddocks run for 12 yds to the VILL 21

3rd & 9Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.14

Tanner Maddocks pass complete to Luke Daly for no gain to the VILL 21

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Nathan Fondacaro punt for 49 yds, downed at the STBK 30

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.36

Ross Tallarico run for 3 yds to the STBK 33

2nd & 7Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +2.21

Daron Bryden pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Daron Bryden pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 4 yds to the VILL 46

2nd & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.90

Jadon Turner run for 1 yd to the VILL 45

3rd & 5Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.83

Daron Bryden pass complete to Jayden Cook for 8 yds to the VILL 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.75

Daron Bryden pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.59

Ross Tallarico run for 8 yds to the VILL 29

3rd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.49

Roland Dempster run for 3 yds to the VILL 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.47

Daron Bryden pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.65

Daron Bryden pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 13 yds to the VILL 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+13 ydsPPA +2.54

Daron Bryden pass complete to Jayden Cook for 13 yds for a TD

Situational Analysis

Stony Brook

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
38%
26 plays
33%
3 plays
2nd
0%
2 plays
33%
3 plays
60%
10 plays
29%
7 plays
3rd
67%
6 plays
67%
3 plays
0%
4 plays
67%
3 plays
4th

Villanova

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
100%
1 play
53%
19 plays
50%
2 plays
2nd
100%
1 play
33%
6 plays
33%
6 plays
100%
2 plays
3rd
50%
2 plays
67%
3 plays
50%
4 plays
4th
0%
1 play