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← Back to GamesNov 11, 2023Week 11
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Valparaiso by 6.2

Home Win Probability

Valparaiso 63%

Market (ESPN Bet)

Valparaiso -7.5

Edge: Stetson +7.5 (1.3 pts)

fitted_v1 · Nov 11, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QOTFinal
Stetson
01073020
Valparaiso
0767323

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014280-30-107-1013-1720-20
ValparaisoStetson

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20VALSTESTEVALSTEVALSTEVALSTEVALSTESTESTEVALSTEVALSTEVALSTEVALSTEVALVALSTEPUNT517ydPUNT66ydPUNT31ydTO516ydPUNT30ydPUNT515ydFG956ydTO519ydTD748ydTO668ydTD37ydEND27ydPUNT3-4ydDOWNS744ydPUNT38ydTD556ydTD1175ydDOWNS834ydPUNT829ydTD46ydFG1251ydDOWNS825ydEND50ydUncategorized4-10yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Stetson and Valparaiso
StatisticStetsonValparaiso
Passing15-3213-23
Pass Yards203113
Rush Yards60205
Total Yards263318
Turnovers04
3rd Down4-170-9
Penalties2-73-25
Possession32:1927:41

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Stetson
passing
Brady Meitz
15/28, 203 YDS
rushing
Devon Brewer
15 CAR, 33 YDS, 2 TD
receiving
Donovan Shepard
1 REC, 44 YDS
Valparaiso
passing
Rowan Keefe
7/14, 82 YDS, 3 INT
rushing
Ryan Mann
25 CAR, 121 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Micah Mackay
1 REC, 33 YDS

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+22 yds

Marshall Golick kickoff for 55 yds , Chris Gundy return for 22 yds to the VAL 32

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.69

Ryan Mann run for 7 yds to the VAL 39

2nd & 3Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.64

Rowan Keefe pass complete to Jake Vickers for 7 yds to the VAL 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Valparaiso Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the VAL 41

1st & 15Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.37

Ryan Mann run for 3 yds to the VAL 44

2nd & 12Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Rowan Keefe pass complete to Ryan Mann for 5 yds to the VAL 49

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.81

Rowan Keefe pass incomplete to Chris Gundy, broken up by CJ Davis

4th & 7Punt+3 yds

Evan Matthes punt for 42 yds , Jaylon Johnson returns for 3 yds to the STET 12

1st & 10Rush-6 ydsPPA -0.58

Ronnel Johnson run for a loss of 6 yards to the STET 6

2nd & 16Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.05

Matt O'Connor run for 1 yd to the STET 7

3rd & 15Sack-6 ydsPPA -0.04

Matt O'Connor sacked by Sam Hafner and Logan Chastain for a loss of 6 yards to the STET 1

4th & 21Penalty+15 yds

Golick, Marshal punt 32 yards to the STET33, downed, PENALTY VALPO roughing the kicker (SAMUEL) 15 yards to the STET16, 1ST DOWN STET, NO PLAY.

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.39

Devon Brewer run for 1 yd to the STET 17

2nd & 9Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.21

Devon Brewer run for 1 yd to the STET 18

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.13

Matt O'Connor pass incomplete to Jalon Warthen-Carr, broken up by Evan Annis

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Marshall Golick punt for 38 yds , Chris Gundy returns for no gain to the VAL 44 Chris Gundy fumbled, recovered by STET Kyle Elphick Golick, Marshal punt 38 yards to the VALPO44, GUNDY return 0 yards to the VALPO44, fumble by GUNDY recovered by STET Elphick, Kyle at VALPO44.

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.75

Kaleb Costner run for 1 yd to the VAL 43

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Matt O'Connor pass incomplete

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.95

Matt O'Connor pass incomplete

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Marshall Golick punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Colin Graves at the VAL 13

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.23

Ryan Mann run for 6 yds to the VAL 19

2nd & 4Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.39

Rowan Keefe pass complete to Jake Vickers for 6 yds to the VAL 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Rowan Keefe pass complete to Ryan Mann for 4 yds to the VAL 29

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.65

Rowan Keefe pass incomplete

3rd & 6Pass Interception Return+3 ydsPPA -0.16

Rowan Keefe pass intercepted Davion Maxwell return for 3 yds to the VAL 43

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.94

Devon Brewer run for no gain to the VAL 43

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.06

Devon Brewer run for no gain to the VAL 43

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.91

Matt O'Connor pass incomplete

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Marshall Golick punt for 37 yds, downed at the VAL 6

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.19

Ryan Mann run for 2 yds to the VAL 8

2nd & 8Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.65

Rowan Keefe pass complete to Solomon Davis for 11 yds to the VAL 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.53

Rowan Keefe pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.24

Jeffery Vercher run for 7 yds to the VAL 26

3rd & 3Penalty-5 yds

KEEFE pass complete to VICKERS for 10 yards to the VALPO36 (Williams, RJ), PENALTY VALPO ineligible downfield on pass (PAIC) 5 yards to the VALPO21, NO PLAY.

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.16

Rowan Keefe pass incomplete

4th & 8Punt+3 yds

Evan Matthes punt for 46 yds , Gabe Atkin returns for 3 yds to the STET 36

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.64

Donovan Shepard run for 2 yds to the STET 38

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.81

Brady Meitz pass incomplete to Jalon Warthen-Carr

3rd & 8Pass Reception+44 ydsPPA +4.00

Brady Meitz pass complete to Donovan Shepard for 44 yds to the VAL 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.45

Brady Meitz run for 8 yds to the VAL 10

2nd & 2Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.25

Devon Brewer run for 5 yds to the VAL 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.64

Devon Brewer run for a loss of 1 yard to the VAL 6

2nd & 6Sack-2 ydsPPA -0.42

Brady Meitz sacked by Kobey Fitzgerald for a loss of 2 yards to the VAL 8

3rd & 8Rush0 ydsPPA -0.35

Brady Meitz run for no gain to the VAL 8

4th & 8Field Goal Good+25 yds

Brandon Bush 25 yd FG GOOD

1st & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+21 yds

Marshall Golick kickoff for 54 yds , Jeffery Vercher return for 21 yds to the VAL 32

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Ryan Mann run for 4 yds to the VAL 36

2nd & 6Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.48

Ryan Mann run for 10 yds to the VAL 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Ryan Mann run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.93

Ryan Mann run for 1 yd to the STET 49

3rd & 5Pass Interception Return+7 ydsPPA -1.73

Rowan Keefe pass intercepted CJ Davis return for 7 yds to the VAL 48

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Devon Brewer run for 5 yds to the VAL 43

2nd & 5Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.54

Brady Meitz run for 6 yds to the VAL 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.37

Brady Meitz pass complete to Jalon Warthen-Carr for 13 yds to the VAL 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.32

Brady Meitz run for 7 yds to the VAL 17

2nd & 3Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA -0.07

Brady Meitz pass complete to Jalon Warthen-Carr for 8 yds to the VAL 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Brady Meitz run for 5 yds to the VAL 4

2nd & 4Rushing Touchdown+4 ydsPPA +2.33

Devon Brewer run for 4 yds for a TD (Brandon Bush KICK)

1st & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+14 yds

Marshall Golick kickoff for 60 yds , Jashon Butler return for 14 yds to the VAL 19

1st & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.20

Rowan Keefe pass complete to Brandon Jimenez for 16 yds to the VAL 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Jashon Butler run for 4 yds to the VAL 39

2nd & 6Pass Reception+33 ydsPPA +2.64

Rowan Keefe pass complete to Micah Mackay for 33 yds to the STET 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.51

Jashon Butler run for no gain to the STET 28

2nd & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +0.74

Rowan Keefe run for 15 yds to the STET 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Interception Return+2 ydsPPA -4.46

Rowan Keefe pass intercepted Rassie Littlejohn return for no gain to the STET 13 Stetson Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Jaylon Johnson) to the STET 1

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.20

Brady Meitz run for 1 yd to the STET 2

2nd & 9Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.05

Kaleb Costner run for 3 yds to the STET 5

3rd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.04

Kaleb Costner run for 3 yds to the STET 8

4th & 3Blocked Punt Touchdown0 ydsPPA -6.72

Micah Mackay 0 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Ryan Hawk Kick)

1st & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+20 yds

Ryan Hawk kickoff for 57 yds , Jalon Warthen-Carr return for 20 yds to the STET 28

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.80

Brady Meitz pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.36

Devon Brewer run for 7 yds to the STET 35

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.80

Devon Brewer run for a loss of 1 yard to the STET 24

2nd & 11Sack-3 ydsPPA -0.39

Brady Meitz sacked by Max Franco and Evan Annis for a loss of 3 yards to the STET 21

3rd & 14Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.08

Brady Meitz pass incomplete to Gabe Atkin

4th & 14Punt0 yds

Marshall Golick punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Colin Graves at the VAL 38

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Ryan Mann run for 3 yds to the VAL 41

2nd & 7Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.97

Jeffrey Jackson pass complete to Tytus Ragle for 15 yds to the STET 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+18 ydsPPA +0.69

Ryan Mann run for 18 yds to the STET 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.59

Ryan Mann run for a loss of 1 yard to the STET 27

2nd & 11Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.36

Jeffrey Jackson pass complete to Jake Vickers for 2 yds to the STET 25

3rd & 9Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.28

Jeffery Vercher run for 3 yds to the STET 22

4th & 6Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -3.05

Jeffrey Jackson pass complete to Ryan Mann for 4 yds to the STET 18

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.08

Donovan Shepard run for 4 yds to the STET 22

2nd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Brady Meitz run for 4 yds to the STET 26

3rd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.43

Brady Meitz pass incomplete to TEAM, broken up by Evan Annis

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Marshall Golick punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Colin Graves at the VAL 44

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.83

Ryan Mann run for 10 yds to the STET 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.31

Ryan Mann run for 6 yds to the STET 40 Stetson Penalty, personal foul (Yards) to the STET 40

2nd & 4Rush+36 ydsPPA +1.54

Jeffery Vercher run for 36 yds to the STET 4 for a 1ST down

1st & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.21

Caron Tyler run for 3 yds to the STET 1

2nd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +1.90

Ryan Mann run for 1 yd for a TD (Ryan Hawk PAT MISSED)

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Donovan Shepard run for no gain to the STET 25

2nd & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Brady Meitz pass complete to Gabe Atkin for 5 yds to the STET 30

3rd & 5Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +3.12

Brady Meitz pass complete to Elijah Workinger for 23 yds to the VAL 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+25 ydsPPA +0.97

Brady Meitz pass complete to Aanjay Feliciano for 25 yds to the VAL 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.13

Brady Meitz pass complete to Aanjay Feliciano for 11 yds to the VAL 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Brady Meitz pass incomplete, broken up by Kobey Fitzgerald

2nd & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.26

Donovan Shepard run for 8 yds to the VAL 3

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.25

Devon Brewer run for 1 yd to the VAL 2

4th & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +1.86

Kaleb Costner run for 1 yd to the VAL 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.96

Kaleb Costner run for no gain to the VAL 1

2nd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +1.90

Devon Brewer run for 1 yd for a TD (Brandon Bush KICK)

1st & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+26 yds

Marshall Golick kickoff for 53 yds , Jashon Butler return for 26 yds to the VAL 38

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Ryan Mann run for 4 yds to the VAL 42

2nd & 6Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.36

Brian Thomas run for 9 yds to the STET 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception-2 ydsPPA -1.56

Jeffrey Jackson pass complete to Caleb Rao for a loss of 2 yards to the VAL 49

2nd & 12Rush+14 ydsPPA +2.27

Ryan Mann run for 14 yds to the STET 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.40

Jeffrey Jackson run for 2 yds to the STET 35

2nd & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.29

Ryan Mann run for 3 yds to the STET 32

3rd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.33

Ryan Mann run for 3 yds to the STET 29

4th & 2Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -2.93

Jeffrey Jackson pass complete to Jake Vickers for 1 yd to the STET 28

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.51

Devon Brewer run for 2 yds to the STET 30

2nd & 8Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +2.18

Brady Meitz pass complete to Ronnel Johnson for 16 yds to the STET 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Brady Meitz pass incomplete to Gabe Atkin

2nd & 10Sack-1 ydsPPA -1.09

Brady Meitz sacked by Evan Annis and Colin Graves for a loss of 1 yard to the STET 45

3rd & 11Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +3.02

Brady Meitz pass complete to Ronnel Johnson for 11 yds to the VAL 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -1.19

Brady Meitz pass complete to Devon Brewer for a loss of 1 yard to the VAL 45

2nd & 11Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.62

Donovan Shepard run for 2 yds to the VAL 43

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.95

Brady Meitz pass incomplete to Jalon Warthen-Carr, broken up by Mohamed Kamara

4th & 9Blocked Punt+51 yds

Marshall Golick punt blocked by blocked by Golick, Marshal punt BLOCKED, recovered by VALPO VERCHER at VALPO43 (blocked by SAMUEL), VERCHER for 51 yards to the STET6 (DeWeese, Lumpy). Jeffery Vercher return for 51 yds to the STET 6

1st & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.16

Ryan Mann run for 3 yds to the STET 3

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.24

Ryan Mann run for 2 yds to the STET 1

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.33

Ryan Mann run for no gain to the STET 1

4th & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +2.79

Jeffrey Jackson run for 1 yd for a TD (Ryan Hawk KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Brady Meitz pass incomplete to Aanjay Feliciano, broken up by Tyler Geiman

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.15

Devon Brewer run for 3 yds to the STET 28

3rd & 7Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +2.66

Brady Meitz pass complete to Devon Brewer for 17 yds to the STET 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Brady Meitz pass incomplete to Aanjay Feliciano

2nd & 10Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -1.05

Brady Meitz pass complete to Gabe Atkin for a loss of 1 yard to the STET 44

3rd & 11Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.36

Brady Meitz pass complete to Aanjay Feliciano for 7 yds to the VAL 49

4th & 4Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +2.84

Brady Meitz pass complete to Gabe Atkin for 7 yds to the VAL 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +0.61

Brady Meitz pass complete to Devon Brewer for 18 yds to the VAL 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Devon Brewer run for 5 yds to the VAL 19

2nd & 5Penalty-5 yds

Stetson Penalty, false start (Dawson Harrington) to the VAL 24

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.58

Brady Meitz pass incomplete to Jalon Warthen-Carr, broken up by Mohamed Kamara

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.85

Brady Meitz pass incomplete to Gabe Atkin, broken up by Max Franco

4th & 10Field Goal Good+41 yds

Brandon Bush 41 yd FG GOOD

1st & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+26 yds

Marshall Golick kickoff for 54 yds , Colin Graves return for 26 yds to the VAL 37

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.71

Ryan Mann run for 7 yds to the VAL 44

2nd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.33

Ryan Mann run for 4 yds to the VAL 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.14

Jeffrey Jackson pass incomplete to Chris Gundy, broken up by Josh Hughes

2nd & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.91

Jeffrey Jackson pass complete to Solomon Davis for 11 yds to the STET 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.88

Jeffrey Jackson pass incomplete to Brandon Jimenez

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Jeffrey Jackson pass incomplete to Ryan Mann

3rd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Jeffrey Jackson run for 5 yds to the STET 36

4th & 5Sack-2 ydsPPA -1.90

Rowan Keefe sacked by Nicholas Lerew for a loss of 2 yards to the STET 38

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.27

TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the STET 37

0th & 10End of Regulation0 yds

End of 4th Quarter

4th & 2Field Goal Good+34 yds

Ryan Hawk 34 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.14

Ryan Mann run for 3 yds to the STET 22

2nd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Ryan Mann run for 4 yds to the STET 18

3rd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.41

Rowan Keefe run for 1 yd to the STET 17

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.56

Ronnel Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the VAL 26

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.66

Brady Meitz pass incomplete, broken up by Tyler Geiman

3rd & 11Sack-9 ydsPPA -2.59

Brady Meitz sacked by Evan Annis for a loss of 9 yards to the VAL 35

4th & 20Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

Brady Meitz pass incomplete

Situational Analysis

Stetson

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
0%
1 play
33%
27 plays
2nd
67%
3 plays
50%
4 plays
31%
13 plays
0%
4 plays
3rd
0%
2 plays
50%
2 plays
25%
8 plays
40%
5 plays
4th
50%
2 plays
100%
1 play
0%
1 play

Valparaiso

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
2 plays
30%
23 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
75%
4 plays
71%
7 plays
63%
8 plays
67%
3 plays
3rd
0%
2 plays
0%
3 plays
25%
4 plays
4th
50%
2 plays
0%
2 plays