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← Back to GamesOct 7, 2023Week 6
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Dayton by 5.1

Home Win Probability

Morehead State 36%

Market (William Hill (New Jersey))

Morehead State +4

Edge: Dayton -4 (1.1 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 7, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Dayton
70007
Morehead State
7710731

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014287-07-714-721-724-731-7
Morehead StateDayton

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20MSDAYMSDAYMSDAYMSDAYMSDAYMSDAYMSDAYMSDAYMSDAYMSDAYMSDAYMSDAYMSDAYMSDOWNS617ydMISS617ydTD474ydPUNT3-1ydPUNT3-5ydTD1171ydTO03ydTO829ydTO419ydDOWNS46ydTD1065ydTO1070ydEND1-1ydPUNT3-2ydTD550ydPUNT37ydPUNT635ydDOWNS48ydFG1030ydTO423ydTD937ydTO336ydPUNT529ydPUNT738ydPUNT31ydTO835ydEND1-1yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Dayton and Morehead State
StatisticDaytonMorehead State
Passing16-2919-36
Pass Yards119291
Rush Yards20394
Total Yards322385
Turnovers52
3rd Down6-154-12
Penalties4-5911-100
Possession31:4728:13

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Dayton
passing
Dante Casciola
12/19, 78 YDS, 1 INT
rushing
Michael Neel
18 CAR, 68 YDS
receiving
Dominic Vrbancic
2 REC, 35 YDS
Morehead State
passing
Carter Cravens
19/36, 291 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
rushing
James Louis
14 CAR, 50 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Ryan Upp
6 REC, 78 YDS, 1 TD

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.12

James Louis run for 4 yds to the MORE 30

2nd & 6Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.98

James Louis run for 6 yds to the MORE 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.04

James Louis run for no gain to the MORE 36

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.63

Carter Cravens pass incomplete

3rd & 10Penalty-5 yds

Morehead State Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the MORE 31

3rd & 15Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +0.91

Carter Cravens pass complete to Kyle Daly for 14 yds to the MORE 45

4th & 1Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.75

James Louis run for a loss of 2 yards to the MORE 43

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.94

Dante Casciola pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.50

Cole Dow run for 14 yds to the MORE 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.81

Michael Neel run for a loss of 2 yards to the MORE 31

2nd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.84

Dante Casciola pass incomplete

3rd & 12Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Michael Neel run for 5 yds to the MORE 26

4th & 7Field Goal Missed+43 yds

Sam Webster 43 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.73

Carter Cravens run for no gain to the MORE 26

2nd & 10Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +2.65

Carter Cravens pass complete to Harrison Cohen for 21 yds to the MORE 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.15

Carter Cravens pass incomplete to Kyle Daly

2nd & 10Passing Touchdown+53 ydsPPA +5.25

Carter Cravens pass complete to Trevon Kleint for 53 yds for a TD (Thomas Schwartz V KICK)

1st & 0Penalty-5 yds

Morehead State Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the DAY 8

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

Dayton Penalty, Offensive pass interference (Matt Lenti) to the DAY 10

1st & 20Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.07

Michael Neel run for 2 yds to the DAY 12

2nd & 18Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.01

Dante Casciola pass complete to Michael Neel for 5 yds to the DAY 17

3rd & 13Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.04

Dante Casciola pass complete to Luke Brenner for 2 yds to the DAY 19

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Logan Forcum punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Ryan Upp at the MORE 45

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.16

Chance Harris run for no gain to the MORE 45

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.91

Carter Cravens pass incomplete to Kyle Daly

3rd & 10Penalty-5 yds

Morehead State Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the MORE 40

3rd & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.27

Carter Cravens pass incomplete

4th & 15Punt0 yds

Kip Warren punt for 31 yds

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.83

Dante Casciola pass incomplete to Gavin Lochow

2nd & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.75

Dante Casciola pass complete to Gavin Lochow for 10 yds to the DAY 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.71

Dante Casciola pass complete to Cole Dow for 7 yds to the DAY 46

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.76

Logan Davis run for 2 yds to the DAY 48

3rd & 1Rush+21 ydsPPA +2.07

Dante Casciola run for 21 yds to the MORE 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.58

Michael Neel run for no gain to the MORE 31

2nd & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.10

Dante Casciola pass complete to Gavin Lochow for 4 yds to the MORE 27

3rd & 6Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.94

Cole Dow pass complete to Luke Brenner for 10 yds to the MORE 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.45

Michael Neel run for 8 yds to the MORE 9

2nd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.08

Michael Neel run for 3 yds to the MORE 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Rushing Touchdown+6 ydsPPA +2.05

Luke Hansen run for 6 yds for a TD (Sam Webster KICK)

1st & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+26 yds

David Maurer kickoff for 61 yds , Ryan Upp return for 26 yds to the MORE 33 Ryan Upp fumbled, forced by Nicholas Grieser, recovered by DAY Luke Mitchell

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.20

Dante Casciola run for 3 yds to the MORE 30

2nd & 7Rush0 ydsPPA -0.72

Michael Neel run for no gain to the MORE 30

3rd & 7Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Michael Neel run for 5 yds to the MORE 25

4th & 2Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.21

Michael Neel run for 11 yds to the MORE 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.61

Michael Neel run for 9 yds to the MORE 5

2nd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.56

Luke Hansen run for no gain to the MORE 5

3rd & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +0.80

Cole Dow run for 1 yd to the MORE 4 for a 1ST down

1st & 0Fumble Recovery (Opponent)0 yds

Cole Dow run for no gain to the MORE 4 Cole Dow fumbled, recovered by MORE Jahleel Holmes

1st & 10Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +0.67

Carter Cravens pass complete to Harrison Cohen for 18 yds to the MORE 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.51

James Louis run for 1 yd to the MORE 23

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Carter Cravens pass incomplete

3rd & 9Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA +0.13

Carter Cravens pass intercepted Logan Miller return for no gain to the MORE 41

1st & 10Sack-4 ydsPPA -1.75

Dante Casciola sacked by Noah Benza and Jahleel Holmes for a loss of 4 yards to the MORE 45

2nd & 14Penalty+5 yds

Morehead State Penalty, illegal participation (5 Yards) to the MORE 40

2nd & 9Rush0 ydsPPA -1.02

Michael Neel run for no gain to the MORE 40

3rd & 9Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Michael Neel run for 5 yds to the MORE 35

4th & 4Rush0 ydsPPA -2.13

Michael Neel run for no gain to the MORE 35

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Carter Cravens pass complete to Ryan Upp for 5 yds to the MORE 40

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.06

Carter Cravens pass incomplete to Kyle Daly

3rd & 5Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +2.19

Carter Cravens pass complete to Caleb Tillman for 8 yds to the MORE 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.66

Chance Harris run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.09

Carter Cravens pass incomplete to Caleb Tillman

3rd & 8Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +2.52

Carter Cravens pass complete to Ryan Upp for 9 yds to the DAY 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-11 ydsPPA -3.11

Chance Harris run for 4 yds to the MORE 37 Morehead State Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the MORE 48

2nd & 21Pass Reception+25 ydsPPA +3.61

Carter Cravens pass complete to Kyle Daly for 40 yds to the DAY 12 for a 1ST down Morehead State Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the DAY 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.37

James Louis run for 1 yd to the DAY 26

2nd & 9Passing Touchdown+26 ydsPPA +3.12

Carter Cravens pass complete to Ryan Upp for 26 yds for a TD (Thomas Schwartz V KICK)

1st & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+24 yds

Braeden Haynes kickoff for 64 yds , Gavin Lochow return for 24 yds to the DAY 25

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Logan Davis run for 6 yds to the DAY 31

2nd & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.55

Logan Davis run for 2 yds to the DAY 33

3rd & 2Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.74

Cole Dow run for 9 yds to the DAY 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Logan Davis run for 5 yds to the DAY 47

2nd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.44

Logan Davis run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line

3rd & 2Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.42

Logan Davis run for 5 yds to the MORE 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.57

Dante Casciola pass complete to Dominic Vrbancic for 12 yds to the MORE 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+16 ydsPPA +0.32

Dante Casciola run for 16 yds to the MORE 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.70

Dante Casciola pass complete to Derek Willits for 12 yds to the MORE 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -5.12

Dante Casciola pass intercepted, touchback. Kaleb Lyons return for no gain

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.63

TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the MORE 19

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

2nd & 11Kickoff Return (Offense)+24 yds

Braeden Haynes kickoff for 65 yds , Luke Brenner return for 24 yds to the DAY 24

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.67

Michael Neel run for no gain to the DAY 24

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.33

Dante Casciola pass incomplete, broken up by Keenan Wolf

3rd & 10Pass Reception-2 ydsPPA -0.18

Dante Casciola pass complete to Michael Neel for a loss of 2 yards to the DAY 22

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Logan Forcum punt for 28 yds, downed at the 50 yard line

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.11

Carter Cravens pass incomplete to Caleb Tillman

2nd & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.82

Carter Cravens pass complete to Ryan Upp for 11 yds to the DAY 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Carter Cravens pass complete to Kyle Daly for 5 yds to the DAY 34

2nd & 5Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.37

Carter Cravens run for 10 yds to the DAY 23 for a 1ST down for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+23 ydsPPA +2.66

James Louis run for 23 yds for a TD (Thomas Schwartz V KICK)

1st & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+34 yds

Braeden Haynes kickoff for 56 yds , Gavin Lochow return for 34 yds to the DAY 43

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Dante Casciola pass incomplete to Luke Brenner, broken up by Zane Porter

2nd & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.56

Dante Casciola pass complete to Joey Swanson for 7 yds to the 50 yard line

3rd & 3Rush0 ydsPPA -1.04

Michael Neel run for no gain to the 50 yard line

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Cole Dow punt for 35 yds, downed at the MORE 15

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.07

James Louis run for 4 yds to the MORE 19

2nd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.26

James Louis run for 2 yds to the MORE 21

3rd & 4Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +2.29

Carter Cravens pass complete to Ryan Upp for 20 yds to the MORE 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.92

James Louis run for 1 yd to the MORE 42

2nd & 9Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.59

Carter Cravens pass complete to Ryan Upp for 7 yds to the MORE 49

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.88

James Louis run for 1 yd to the 50 yard line

4th & 1Punt+20 yds

Kip Warren punt for 40 yds , Cam Cope returns for 20 yds to the DAY 30

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.67

Logan Davis run for 7 yds to the DAY 37

2nd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.15

Dante Casciola pass incomplete to Joey Swanson, broken up by Zane Porter

3rd & 3Sack-3 ydsPPA -0.89

Dante Casciola sacked by Luciano Corpora-Ellis for a loss of 3 yards to the DAY 34

4th & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.06

Logan Forcum run for 4 yds to the DAY 38

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.61

Carter Cravens pass complete to James Louis for 8 yds to the DAY 30

2nd & 2Penalty-5 yds

Morehead State Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the DAY 35

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.87

Carter Cravens pass incomplete to Caleb Tillman

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Carter Cravens pass incomplete to James Louis

4th & 7Rush+11 ydsPPA +2.57

Carter Cravens run for 11 yds to the DAY 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.47

James Louis run for 8 yds to the DAY 16

2nd & 2Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA -0.31

Carter Cravens pass complete to Kyle Daly for 6 yds to the DAY 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.16

Chance Harris run for 2 yds to the DAY 8

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.27

Carter Cravens pass incomplete to Kyle Daly

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Carter Cravens pass incomplete to Michael Armour

4th & 8Field Goal Good+25 yds

Thomas Schwartz V 25 yd FG GOOD

1st & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+25 yds

Braeden Haynes kickoff for 62 yds , Gavin Lochow return for 25 yds to the DAY 40 Dayton Penalty, illegal block (Matt Lenti) to the DAY 14

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.27

Dante Casciola pass complete to Luke Brenner for 2 yds to the DAY 16

2nd & 8Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.00

Michael Neel run for 11 yds to the DAY 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.95

Dante Casciola pass complete to Logan Davis for 8 yds to the DAY 35

2nd & 2Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+1 ydsPPA -2.02

Logan Davis run for 1 yd to the DAY 37 Logan Davis fumbled, forced by Keenan Wolf, recovered by MORE Cooper Krezek

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.75

Carter Cravens pass incomplete to Kyle Daly

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.33

Chance Harris run for 3 yds to the DAY 34

3rd & 7Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.41

Carter Cravens pass complete to Vincent Anthony for 8 yds to the DAY 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.36

Carter Cravens run for 1 yd to the DAY 25

2nd & 9Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.54

Carter Cravens pass complete to Michael Armour for 12 yds to the DAY 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Carter Cravens pass incomplete to Michael Armour

2nd & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.38

Carter Cravens pass complete to Bradley West for 10 yds to the DAY 3 for a 1ST down

1st & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.60

Chance Harris run for 1 yd to the DAY 2

2nd & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +2.07

Carter Cravens run for 2 yds for a TD (Thomas Schwartz V KICK)

1st & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+23 yds

Braeden Haynes kickoff for 60 yds , Luke Brenner return for 23 yds to the DAY 28

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.00

Dante Casciola pass complete to Joey Swanson for 11 yds to the DAY 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+25 ydsPPA +1.84

Dante Casciola run for 10 yds to the MORE 49 for a 1ST down Morehead State Penalty, targeting (Matthew McClelland) to the MORE 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -3.99

Cole Dow pass intercepted Kaleb Lyons return for no gain to the MORE 20

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.24

James Louis run for 3 yds to the MORE 23

2nd & 7Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.19

Carter Cravens pass complete to Kyle Daly for 10 yds to the MORE 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

Dayton Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Matt Lenti) to the MORE 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.60

James Louis run for a loss of 2 yards to the MORE 46

2nd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.85

Carter Cravens pass incomplete to Kyle Daly

3rd & 12Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.55

Carter Cravens run for 8 yds to the DAY 46

4th & 4Penalty-5 yds

Morehead State Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the MORE 49

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Kip Warren punt for 47 yds, downed at the DAY 4

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.32

Cole Dow run for 11 yds to the DAY 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.61

Michael Neel run for 11 yds to the DAY 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+5 yds

Morehead State Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the DAY 31

1st & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.51

Cole Dow run for 3 yds to the DAY 34

2nd & 2Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.07

Cole Dow run for 14 yds to the DAY 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -1.14

Cole Dow pass complete to Michael Neel for no gain to the DAY 48

2nd & 10Sack-6 ydsPPA -1.74

Cole Dow sacked by Kenneth Shaffner and Arvell Rogers for a loss of 6 yards to the DAY 42

3rd & 16Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.28

Cole Dow pass incomplete

4th & 16Punt0 yds

Logan Forcum punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Ryan Upp at the MORE 28

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.33

Jackson Lanier run for 3 yds to the MORE 31

2nd & 7Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.81

Jackson Lanier run for a loss of 2 yards to the MORE 29

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.23

Carter Cravens pass incomplete to Nick Dottore

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Kip Warren punt for 40 yds , Cam Cope returns for no gain to the DAY 30 Cam Cope fumbled, recovered by DAY Cam Cope

1st & 10Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +2.08

Cole Dow pass complete to Dominic Vrbancic for 23 yds to the MORE 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.77

Cole Dow pass complete to Joey Swanson for 8 yds to the MORE 39

2nd & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -1.04

Michael Neel run for no gain to the MORE 39

3rd & 2Rush-16 ydsPPA -3.29

Cole Dow run for 4 yds to the MORE 35 for a 1ST down Dayton Penalty, personal foul (-20 Yards) to the MORE 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.69

Cole Dow pass incomplete to Joey Swanson, broken up by Major Dailey

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.91

Cole Dow pass incomplete to Dominic Vrbancic

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.02

Cole Dow pass incomplete to Jake Coleman

4th & 10Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -1.40

Cole Dow pass intercepted, touchback. Major Dailey return for no gain

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.63

TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the MORE 19

Situational Analysis

Dayton

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
33%
3 plays
57%
28 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
29%
7 plays
0%
2 plays
40%
10 plays
50%
2 plays
3rd
57%
7 plays
100%
1 play
50%
4 plays
33%
3 plays
4th
100%
1 play
50%
2 plays
0%
1 play

Morehead State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
22%
27 plays
2nd
50%
2 plays
50%
4 plays
50%
16 plays
50%
2 plays
3rd
0%
1 play
100%
2 plays
50%
6 plays
67%
3 plays
4th
0%
1 play
100%
1 play