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← Back to GamesOct 14, 2023Week 7
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Morehead State by 1.5

Home Win Probability

Valparaiso 46%

Market (William Hill (New Jersey))

Valparaiso +1.5

Edge: Valparaiso +1.5 (0.1 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 14, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Morehead State
7001724
Valparaiso
770721

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014287-714-721-1421-21
ValparaisoMorehead State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20MSVALMSVALMSVALMSVALMSVALMSVALMSVALMSVALMSVALMSVALMSVALMSVALMSPUNT30ydPUNT35ydDOWNS843ydPUNT37ydTD666ydTD775ydTO32ydPUNT616ydPUNT3-8ydTD858ydDOWNS942ydPUNT30ydPUNT38ydMISS1040ydEND1-1ydPUNT3-12ydDOWNS637ydTO649ydPUNT1031ydDOWNS1275ydTD792ydTD665ydTD180ydPUNT37ydFG376yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Morehead State and Valparaiso
StatisticMorehead StateValparaiso
Passing23-3819-31
Pass Yards396225
Rush Yards51143
Total Yards447368
Turnovers11
3rd Down4-136-16
Penalties7-526-61
Possession27:0033:00

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Morehead State
passing
Carter Cravens
23/38, 396 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Carter Cravens
9 CAR, 31 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Ryan Upp
8 REC, 184 YDS, 2 TD
Valparaiso
passing
Jeffrey Jackson
18/29, 202 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Ryan Mann
12 CAR, 102 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Solomon Davis
7 REC, 94 YDS

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+29 yds

Ryan Hawk kickoff for 58 yds , Kyle Daly return for 29 yds to the MORE 36

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Carter Cravens pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.63

James Louis run for no gain to the MORE 36

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.32

Carter Cravens pass incomplete, broken up by Evan Annis

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Kip Warren punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Colin Graves at the VAL 25

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Ryan Mann run for 7 yds to the VAL 32

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.63

Ryan Mann run for 2 yds to the VAL 34

3rd & 1Fumble Recovery (Own)-4 ydsPPA -1.01

TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the VAL 30 TEAM fumbled, recovered by VAL Ryan Mann

4th & 5Punt+1 yds

Evan Matthes punt for 35 yds , Ryan Upp returns for 1 yd to the MORE 36

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.85

Chance Harris run for 1 yd to the MORE 37

2nd & 9Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.53

Carter Cravens pass complete to Ryan Upp for 7 yds to the MORE 44

3rd & 2Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.70

Carter Cravens run for 7 yds to the VAL 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +1.06

Carter Cravens pass complete to Trevon Kleint for 9 yds to the VAL 40 for a 1ST down Valparaiso Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Tyler Geiman) to the VAL 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.45

Carter Cravens pass incomplete to Chance Harris

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.61

Carter Cravens pass incomplete to Ryan Upp

3rd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Chance Harris run for 4 yds to the VAL 21

4th & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -3.12

Carter Cravens pass incomplete to Chance Harris

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.59

Jeffrey Jackson run for no gain to the VAL 21

2nd & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.26

Jashon Butler run for 7 yds to the VAL 28

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.42

Jeffrey Jackson pass incomplete to Jake Vickers, broken up by Jahleel Holmes

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Evan Matthes punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Ryan Upp at the MORE 34

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.97

Carter Cravens pass complete to Kyle Daly for 10 yds to the MORE 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.08

Carter Cravens run for 14 yds to the VAL 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+38 ydsPPA +1.61

Carter Cravens pass complete to Kyle Daly for 38 yds to the VAL 4 for a 1ST down

1st & 0Penalty-5 yds

J. Louis rush for 4 yards to the VALPO0, clock 06:26, PENALTY MOR IF 5 yards to the VALPO9, NO PLAY.

1st & 9Rush0 ydsPPA -0.32

Chance Harris run for no gain to the VAL 9

2nd & 9Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.29

Chance Harris run for 8 yds to the VAL 1

3rd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +2.45

Carter Cravens run for 1 yd for a TD (Nathan Hazlett KICK)

1st & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+17 yds

Braeden Haynes kickoff for 57 yds , Jashon Butler return for 17 yds to the VAL 25

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Jeffrey Jackson pass complete to Chris Gundy for 5 yds to the VAL 30

2nd & 5Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.74

Brian Thomas run for 5 yds to the VAL 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Brian Thomas run for 4 yds to the VAL 39

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.97

Jeffrey Jackson pass incomplete to Chris Gundy

3rd & 6Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +2.53

Jeffrey Jackson pass complete to Chris Gundy for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+29 ydsPPA +1.21

Jeffrey Jackson pass complete to Chris Gundy for 29 yds to the MORE 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+21 ydsPPA +2.63

Jeffrey Jackson pass complete to Ryan Mann for 21 yds for a TD (Patrick Oliva KICK)

1st & 0Penalty-5 yds

Valparaiso Penalty, false start (Carter Woody) to the MORE 8

1st & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+12 yds

Ryan Hawk kickoff for 34 yds , Isaac Armstrong return for 12 yds to the MORE 43

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.69

James Louis run for 2 yds to the MORE 45

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Carter Cravens pass incomplete to James Louis

3rd & 8Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -0.84

Carter Cravens pass intercepted Tyler Geiman return for no gain to the VAL 40

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)0 ydsPPA -1.12

Brian Thomas run for no gain to the VAL 37 Brian Thomas fumbled, forced by Cooper Krezek, recovered by VAL Carter Woody

2nd & 13Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.60

Jeffrey Jackson pass complete to Tytus Ragle for 12 yds to the VAL 49

3rd & 1Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA +1.20

Jeffrey Jackson pass complete to Micah Mackay for 4 yds to the MORE 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.52

Brian Thomas run for a loss of 2 yards to the MORE 49

2nd & 12Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Jeffrey Jackson pass complete to Solomon Davis for 5 yds to the MORE 44

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.99

Jeffrey Jackson pass incomplete

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Evan Matthes punt for 19 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MORE 25

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Carter Cravens pass incomplete, broken up by Jake Birmingham

2nd & 10Rush-8 ydsPPA -0.56

Chance Harris run for a loss of 8 yards to the MORE 17

3rd & 18Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.04

Carter Cravens pass incomplete to Kyle Daly, broken up by Tyler Geiman

4th & 18Punt+41 yds

Kip Warren punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Colin Graves at the VAL 42 Valparaiso Penalty, roughing the kicker (Yards) declined

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.15

Jeffrey Jackson pass incomplete, broken up by Luciano Corpora-Ellis

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Jashon Butler run for 4 yds to the VAL 46

3rd & 6Rush+16 ydsPPA +2.76

Jeffrey Jackson run for 1 yd to the MORE 47 for a 1ST down Morehead State Penalty, personal foul (Jahleel Holmes) to the MORE 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.42

Jashon Butler run for 2 yds to the MORE 36

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.91

Jeffrey Jackson pass incomplete to Chris Gundy, broken up by Keenan Wolf

3rd & 8Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.48

Jeffrey Jackson run for 7 yds to the MORE 29

4th & 1Penalty+5 yds

Morehead State Penalty, encroachment (Wilson McCraw) to the MORE 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.33

Ryan Mann run for 1 yd to the MORE 23

2nd & 9Rushing Touchdown+23 ydsPPA +3.01

Ryan Mann run for 23 yds for a TD (Patrick Oliva KICK)

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Chance Harris run for no gain to the MORE 25

2nd & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.17

Carter Cravens pass complete to Chance Harris for 6 yds to the MORE 31

3rd & 4Penalty+15 yds

C. Cravens pass incomplete to T. Kleint, PENALTY VALPO pass interference (GEIMAN) 15 yards to the MOR46, 1ST DOWN MOR, NO PLAY.

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Chance Harris run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Carter Cravens pass incomplete to Kyle Daly

3rd & 6Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +2.26

Carter Cravens pass complete to Michael Armour for 9 yds to the VAL 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Carter Cravens pass complete to Kyle Daly for 5 yds to the VAL 36

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.90

Carter Cravens pass incomplete to Kyle Daly

3rd & 5Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.37

Carter Cravens pass complete to Ryan Upp for 3 yds to the VAL 33

4th & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -2.58

Carter Cravens run for no gain to the VAL 33

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.60

Ryan Mann run for 2 yds to the VAL 35

2nd & 8Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Brian Thomas run for 5 yds to the VAL 40

3rd & 3Sack-7 ydsPPA -1.24

Jeffrey Jackson sacked by Arvell Rogers and Keenan Wolf for a loss of 7 yards to the VAL 33

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Evan Matthes punt for 54 yds, downed at the MORE 13

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.23

James Louis run for 6 yds to the MORE 19

2nd & 4Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.34

Carter Cravens pass complete to Ryan Upp for 2 yds to the MORE 21

3rd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.34

Carter Cravens pass incomplete to Ryan Upp, broken up by Colin Graves

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Kip Warren punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Colin Graves at the VAL 41

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.34

Jashon Butler run for a loss of 1 yard to the VAL 40

2nd & 11Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.50

Jeffrey Jackson pass complete to Solomon Davis for 7 yds to the VAL 47

3rd & 4Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +1.96

Jeffrey Jackson pass complete to Chris Gundy for 7 yds to the MORE 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.03

Ryan Mann run for no gain to the MORE 46

2nd & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.73

Jeffrey Jackson pass complete to Solomon Davis for 15 yds to the MORE 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

JACKSON,Je. pass complete to JIMENEZ for 31 yards to the MOR0, clock 00:28, PENALTY VALPO holding 10 yards to the MOR41, NO PLAY.

1st & 20Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.69

Jeffrey Jackson pass complete to Chris Gundy for 16 yds to the MORE 25

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.60

Jeffrey Jackson pass incomplete to Brandon Jimenez

3rd & 4Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.62

Jeffrey Jackson pass complete to Chris Gundy for 6 yds to the MORE 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.36

TEAM pass incomplete

2nd & 10Field Goal Missed+36 yds

Patrick Oliva 36 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.63

TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the MORE 19

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

2nd & 11Kickoff Return (Offense)+20 yds

Braeden Haynes kickoff for 55 yds , Chris Gundy return for 20 yds to the VAL 30

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.86

Jeffrey Jackson pass incomplete to Solomon Davis, broken up by Matthew McClelland

2nd & 10Pass Reception-9 ydsPPA -0.77

Jeffrey Jackson pass complete to Jeffrey Jackson for a loss of 9 yards to the VAL 21

3rd & 19Sack-3 ydsPPA -0.06

Jeffrey Jackson sacked by Isaac Armstrong for a loss of 3 yards to the VAL 18

4th & 22Punt+1 yds

Evan Matthes punt for 43 yds , Ryan Upp returns for 1 yd to the MORE 40

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.12

Carter Cravens pass incomplete to Kyle Daly

2nd & 10Pass Reception+31 ydsPPA +3.09

Carter Cravens pass complete to Ryan Upp for 31 yds to the VAL 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.14

James Louis run for a loss of 4 yards to the VAL 33

2nd & 14Penalty-5 yds

Morehead State Penalty, false start (Trevon Kleint) to the VAL 38

2nd & 19Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.64

Carter Cravens run for 14 yds to the VAL 24

3rd & 5Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.56

Carter Cravens pass complete to Trevon Kleint for 1 yd to the VAL 23

4th & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -3.17

Carter Cravens pass incomplete to Ryan Upp, broken up by Mohamed Kamara

1st & 10Rush+37 ydsPPA +3.02

Ryan Mann run for 37 yds to the MORE 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.45

Ryan Mann run for 7 yds to the MORE 33

2nd & 3Rush+5 ydsPPA -0.02

Brian Thomas run for 5 yds to the MORE 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.27

Jashon Butler run for 2 yds to the MORE 26

2nd & 8Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.94

Jashon Butler run for a loss of 2 yards to the MORE 28

3rd & 10Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -3.02

Jeffrey Jackson pass intercepted Jihad McCall return for no gain to the MORE 15

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Morehead State Penalty, false start (James Wayne) to the MORE 10

1st & 15Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Carter Cravens pass complete to Ryan Upp for 4 yds to the MORE 14

2nd & 11Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.04

Carter Cravens pass complete to Ryan Upp for 11 yds to the MORE 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Morehead State Penalty, false start (Jaxsen Spears) to the MORE 20

1st & 15Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.14

Carter Cravens pass complete to Matthew Middleton for 3 yds to the MORE 23

2nd & 12Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.16

Carter Cravens pass complete to Harrison Cohen for 2 yds to the MORE 25

3rd & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +2.57

Carter Cravens pass complete to Kyle Daly for 17 yds to the MORE 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.69

Chance Harris run for 7 yds to the MORE 49

2nd & 3Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.33

Carter Cravens pass complete to Xavier Rawls for 5 yds to the VAL 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-5 ydsPPA -2.14

Carter Cravens sacked by null and Sam Hafner for a loss of 5 yards to the MORE 49

2nd & 15Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.49

Carter Cravens pass complete to Vincent Anthony for 7 yds to the VAL 44

3rd & 8Sack-10 ydsPPA -1.95

Carter Cravens sacked by Kobey Fitzgerald for a loss of 10 yards to the MORE 46

4th & 18Punt0 yds

Kip Warren punt for 37 yds, downed at the VAL 17

1st & 10Rush+16 ydsPPA +1.11

Jashon Butler run for 16 yds to the VAL 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.96

Jeffrey Jackson pass incomplete to Brandon Jimenez

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.54

Jeffrey Jackson pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +3.09

Jeffrey Jackson pass complete to Solomon Davis for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.35

Jeffrey Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the VAL 49

2nd & 11Rush0 ydsPPA -0.97

Caron Tyler run for no gain to the VAL 49

3rd & 11Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.87

Jeffrey Jackson run for 9 yds to the MORE 42

4th & 2Penalty-5 yds

Valparaiso Penalty, delay of game (Jeffrey Jackson) to the MORE 47

4th & 7Pass Reception+35 ydsPPA +3.75

Evan Matthes pass complete to Colin Graves for 23 yds to the MORE 24 for a 1ST down Morehead State Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Coby Nile) to the MORE 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.18

Ryan Mann run for 6 yds to the MORE 6

2nd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.12

Ryan Mann run for 3 yds to the MORE 3

3rd & 1Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.42

Jeffrey Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the MORE 4

4th & 2Rush-4 ydsPPA -4.11

Jeffrey Jackson run for a loss of 4 yards to the MORE 8

1st & 10Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +1.24

Carter Cravens pass complete to Harrison Cohen for 23 yds to the MORE 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.36

Carter Cravens run for 9 yds to the MORE 40

2nd & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.41

Carter Cravens pass incomplete

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.89

James Louis run for no gain to the MORE 40

4th & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +1.88

Carter Cravens run for 1 yd to the MORE 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.12

Carter Cravens pass complete to Kyle Daly for 13 yds to the VAL 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+46 ydsPPA +3.54

Carter Cravens pass complete to Ryan Upp for 46 yds for a TD (Nathan Hazlett KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+39 ydsPPA +2.52

Jeffrey Jackson pass complete to Solomon Davis for 39 yds to the MORE 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.25

Ryan Mann run for 2 yds to the MORE 24

2nd & 8Fumble Recovery (Own)+7 ydsPPA +0.29

Ryan Mann run for 7 yds to the MORE 12 Ryan Mann fumbled, forced by Andre Nolan-White, recovered by VAL Jashon Butler for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.36

Brian Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the MORE 13

2nd & 11Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.17

Jeffrey Jackson pass complete to Solomon Davis for 7 yds to the MORE 6

3rd & 4Passing Touchdown+6 ydsPPA +2.72

Jeffrey Jackson pass complete to Jake Vickers for 6 yds for a TD (Patrick Oliva KICK)

1st & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+13 yds

Ryan Hawk kickoff for 58 yds , Kyle Daly return for 13 yds to the MORE 20

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+80 ydsPPA +6.39

Carter Cravens pass complete to Ryan Upp for 80 yds for a TD (Nathan Hazlett KICK)

1st & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+8 yds

Braeden Haynes kickoff for 60 yds , Jashon Butler return for 8 yds to the VAL 13

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.17

Jeffrey Jackson run for 3 yds to the VAL 16

2nd & 7Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Jeffrey Jackson pass complete to Solomon Davis for 4 yds to the VAL 20

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.28

Jeffrey Jackson pass incomplete to Solomon Davis

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Evan Matthes punt for 67 yds, downed at the MORE 13

1st & 10Pass Reception+64 ydsPPA +4.03

Carter Cravens pass complete to Trevon Kleint for 64 yds to the VAL 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.32

Chance Harris run for 1 yd to the VAL 22

2nd & 9Penalty+11 yds

N. Hazlett field goal attempt from 39 MISSED - wide left,, clock 00:00, PENALTY VALPO roughing the kicker 11 yards to the VALPO11, 1ST DOWN MOR, NO PLAY.

1st & 10Field Goal Good+28 yds

Nathan Hazlett 28 yd FG GOOD

Situational Analysis

Morehead State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
50%
26 plays
0%
2 plays
2nd
50%
2 plays
0%
3 plays
50%
8 plays
75%
4 plays
3rd
50%
4 plays
33%
3 plays
20%
5 plays
0%
1 play
4th
50%
2 plays
0%
2 plays

Valparaiso

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
33%
27 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
0%
2 plays
25%
4 plays
45%
11 plays
80%
5 plays
3rd
17%
6 plays
100%
5 plays
50%
4 plays
50%
2 plays
4th
0%
1 play
100%
1 play