Skip to main content
← Back to GamesNov 4, 2023Week 10
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

South Dakota State by 22.2

Home Win Probability

South Dakota State 90%

Market (ESPN Bet)

South Dakota State -14

Edge: South Dakota State -14 (8.2 pts)

fitted_v1 · Nov 4, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
North Dakota StateNorth Dakota State
630716
South Dakota State
7137633

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428420-67-67-910-920-927-930-930-1633-16
South Dakota StateNorth Dakota State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20NDSSDSNDSSDSNDSSDSNDSSDSNDSSDSNDSSDSNDSSDSNDSSDSNDSSDSNDSTD1275ydTD1375ydFG1152ydFG657ydPUNT32ydTD346ydTO16ydFG627ydMISS943ydTD675ydMISS40ydPUNT416ydTO1057ydFG845ydTD1175ydPUNT618ydTO312ydFG416ydEND3-2yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing North Dakota State and South Dakota State
StatisticNorth Dakota StateSouth Dakota State
Passing18-2912-19
Pass Yards167213
Rush Yards158152
Total Yards325365
Turnovers30
3rd Down4-126-13
Penalties2-204-40
Possession30:1829:42

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

North Dakota State
passing
Cam Miller
18/29, 167 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
rushing
Cam Miller
17 CAR, 93 YDS
receiving
Eli Green
4 REC, 47 YDS
South Dakota State
passing
Mark Gronowski
12/19, 213 YDS, 2 TD
rushing
Isaiah Davis
17 CAR, 106 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Jadon Janke
5 REC, 89 YDS, 2 TD

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.42

Cam Miller pass complete to Eli Green for 16 yds to the NDSU 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.00

Cam Miller run for 8 yds to the NDSU 49

2nd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.03

Cam Miller run for 3 yds to the SDST 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.36

Cam Miller pass complete to TK Marshall for 3 yds to the SDST 45

2nd & 7Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

RaJa Nelson run for 5 yds to the SDST 40

3rd & 2Rush+6 ydsPPA +1.02

Cam Miller run for 6 yds to the SDST 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

North Dakota State Penalty, False Start (Brandon Westberg) to the SDST 39

1st & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.89

Cam Miller pass incomplete

2nd & 15Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.83

TaMerik Williams run for 9 yds to the SDST 30

3rd & 6Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Cam Miller pass complete to Eli Green for 5 yds to the SDST 25

4th & 1Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +2.44

Cam Miller pass complete to Joe Stoffel for 23 yds to the SDST 2 for a 1ST down

1st & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.69

Cam Miller run for 1 yd to the SDST 1

2nd & 1Passing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +1.90

Cam Miller pass complete to Zach Mathis for 1 yd for a TD (Griffin Crosa PAT BLOCKED)

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.84

Isaiah Davis run for 10 yds to the SDST 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.01

Isaiah Davis run for no gain to the SDST 35

2nd & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.96

Mark Gronowski pass complete to Jadon Janke for 9 yds to the SDST 44

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.20

Isaiah Davis run for 3 yds to the SDST 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +0.95

Mark Gronowski pass complete to Grahm Goering for 14 yds to the NDSU 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Amar Johnson run for 4 yds to the NDSU 35

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.87

Mark Gronowski pass incomplete

3rd & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Isaiah Davis run for 5 yds to the NDSU 30

4th & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.26

Mark Gronowski run for 2 yds to the NDSU 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+27 ydsPPA +1.83

Isaiah Davis run for 27 yds to the NDSU 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.96

Mark Gronowski run for no gain to the NDSU 1

2nd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.55

Isaiah Davis run for no gain to the NDSU 1

3rd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +2.45

Isaiah Davis run for 1 yd for a TD (Hunter Dustman KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

TaMerik Williams run for 3 yds to the NDSU 42

2nd & 7Rush+15 ydsPPA +1.93

Cam Miller run for 15 yds to the SDST 43 for a 1ST down

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

TK Marshall run for 5 yds to the SDST 38

3rd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

TK Marshall run for 4 yds to the SDST 34

4th & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.50

Cam Miller run for 2 yds to the SDST 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+17 ydsPPA +0.31

Eli Green run for 17 yds to the SDST 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.18

Barika Kpeenu run for 6 yds to the SDST 9

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.39

Cam Miller pass incomplete

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.94

Cam Miller run for no gain to the SDST 43

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Cam Miller pass incomplete

4th & 4Field Goal Good+27 yds

Griffin Crosa 27 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+32 ydsPPA +2.64

Mark Gronowski pass complete to Jaxon Janke for 32 yds to the NDSU 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +0.52

Mark Gronowski pass complete to Jadon Janke for 19 yds to the NDSU 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.19

Amar Johnson run for 6 yds to the NDSU 14

2nd & 4Rush0 ydsPPA -0.43

Amar Johnson run for no gain to the NDSU 14

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.45

Mark Gronowski pass incomplete

4th & 4Field Goal Good+31 yds

Hunter Dustman 31 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

TK Marshall run for 2 yds to the NDSU 27

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

Cam Miller pass incomplete

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.22

Cam Miller pass incomplete

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Kaedin Steindorf punt for 37 yds , returns for no gain to the NDSU 46

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Kaedin Steindorf punt for 37 yds , returns for no gain to the NDSU 46

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.03

Isaiah Davis run for no gain to the NDSU 46

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Mark Gronowski pass incomplete

3rd & 10Passing Touchdown+46 ydsPPA +5.63

Jadon Janke 46 Yd pass from Mark Gronowski (Hunter Dustman Kick)

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+6 ydsPPA -0.92

TaMerik Williams run for 6 yds to the NDSU 31 TaMerik Williams fumbled, recovered by SDST Isaiah Stalbird [SG] WILLIAMS, TaMerik rush up the middle for a gain of 6 yards, WILLIAMS, TaMerik fumbled at NDS31 forced by HUERTER, Colby, recovered by SDS STALBIRD, Isaiah at the NDS31, returned 0 yards to the NDS31, End of Play, clock 05:04.

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.52

Mark Gronowski pass complete to Jadon Janke for 8 yds to the NDSU 23

2nd & 2Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA -0.19

Mark Gronowski pass complete to Jaxon Janke for 13 yds to the NDSU 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.18

Amar Johnson run for 6 yds to the NDSU 4

2nd & 4Rush0 ydsPPA -0.36

Amar Johnson run for no gain to the NDSU 4

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Mark Gronowski pass incomplete

4th & 4Field Goal Good+21 yds

Hunter Dustman 21 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

TK Marshall run for no gain to the NDSU 25

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Cam Miller run for 5 yds to the NDSU 30

3rd & 5Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +2.46

Cam Miller pass complete to Zach Mathis for 15 yds to the NDSU 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Cam Miller pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Cam Miller pass complete to TK Marshall for 5 yds to the 50 yard line

3rd & 5Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Cam Miller pass complete to TK Marshall for 4 yds to the SDST 46

4th & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA +2.23

Cam Miller run for 4 yds to the SDST 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.42

Cam Miller run for 10 yds to the SDST 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Field Goal Missed+50 yds

Griffin Crosa 50 yd FG MISSED

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

GRONOWSKI, Mark pass short to the left incomplete intended for JANKE, Jadon thrown to the SDS30. PENALTY NDS Roughing the Passer on KAVA, Jake enforced 15 yards from the SDS25 to the SDS40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Rush+27 ydsPPA +1.85

Isaiah Davis run for 27 yds to the NDSU 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.72

Isaiah Davis run for 9 yds to the NDSU 24

2nd & 1Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.85

Isaiah Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the NDSU 25

3rd & 2Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.36

Isaiah Davis run for 2 yds to the NDSU 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +0.47

Mark Gronowski pass complete to Griffin Wilde for 16 yds to the NDSU 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Passing Touchdown+7 ydsPPA +2.20

Mark Gronowski pass complete to Jadon Janke for 7 yds for a TD (Hunter Dustman KICK)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.29

TK Marshall run for 1 yd to the SDST 19

2nd & 9Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.56

RaJa Nelson run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDST 20

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.73

Cam Miller pass incomplete

4th & 10Blocked Field Goal+37 yds

Griffin Crosa 37 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by

1st & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.38

Mark Gronowski pass complete to Amar Johnson for 15 yds to the NDSU 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-9 ydsPPA -2.81

Mark Gronowski sacked by Dylan Hendricks for a loss of 9 yards to the SDST 42

2nd & 19Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.37

Amar Johnson run for 1 yd to the SDST 43

3rd & 18Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.30

Mark Gronowski pass complete to Jaxon Janke for 14 yds to the NDSU 43

4th & 4Penalty-5 yds

South Dakota State Penalty, Delay Of Game (-5 Yards) to the NDSU 48

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Hunter Dustman punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Jayden Price at the NDSU 15

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.50

Barika Kpeenu run for a loss of 1 yard to the NDSU 14

2nd & 11Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +1.51

Cam Miller pass complete to Eli Green for 17 yds to the NDSU 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.74

TaMerik Williams run for 1 yd to the NDSU 32

2nd & 9Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.69

Cam Miller pass complete to Jake Lippe for 9 yds to the NDSU 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-15 yds

North Dakota State Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the SDST 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.50

Cam Miller run for 7 yds to the SDST 37

2nd & 3Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.07

Cam Miller run for 6 yds to the SDST 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.52

Cam Miller pass complete to RaJa Nelson for 8 yds to the SDST 23

2nd & 2Sack-5 ydsPPA -1.36

Cam Miller sacked by Isaiah Stalbird for a loss of 5 yards to the SDST 28

3rd & 7Interception0 ydsPPA -3.32

Cam Miller pass intercepted

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.29

Amar Johnson run for 14 yds to the SDST 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.69

Isaiah Davis run for 7 yds to the SDST 49

2nd & 3Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.54

Mark Gronowski run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDST 48

3rd & 4Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +2.54

Mark Gronowski pass complete to Jaxon Janke for 20 yds to the NDSU 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.32

Amar Johnson run for 2 yds to the NDSU 30

2nd & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.23

Amar Johnson run for 3 yds to the NDSU 27

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.83

Mark Gronowski pass incomplete

4th & 5Field Goal Good+44 yds

Hunter Dustman 44 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.25

Cam Miller pass complete to Eli Green for 9 yds to the NDSU 34

2nd & 1Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.42

Cam Miller pass complete to TK Marshall for 1 yd to the NDSU 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Cam Miller run for 4 yds to the NDSU 39

2nd & 6Rush+21 ydsPPA +2.21

Cam Miller run for 21 yds to the SDST 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.45

Cam Miller pass complete to Zach Mathis for 13 yds to the SDST 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.49

Cam Miller pass complete to RaJa Nelson for 8 yds to the SDST 19

2nd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.58

Cam Miller pass incomplete

3rd & 2Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.40

TaMerik Williams run for 10 yds to the SDST 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.37

Cam Miller run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDST 10

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.28

Cam Miller pass incomplete

3rd & 10Passing Touchdown+10 ydsPPA +3.08

Cam Miller pass complete to Zach Mathis for 10 yds for a TD (Eli Ozick KICK)

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Isaiah Davis run for no gain to the SDST 25

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Mark Gronowski pass incomplete

3rd & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +2.37

Isaiah Davis run for 15 yds to the SDST 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.91

Isaiah Davis run for 1 yd to the SDST 41

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.84

Mark Gronowski pass incomplete

3rd & 9Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.31

Mark Gronowski run for 2 yds to the SDST 43

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Hunter Dustman punt for 53 yds, downed at the NDSU 4

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Cam Miller pass complete to RaJa Nelson for 5 yds to the NDSU 9

2nd & 5Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.30

Cam Miller run for 7 yds to the NDSU 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -0.42

Cam Miller pass intercepted

1st & 20Rush0 ydsPPA -0.59

Isaiah Davis run for no gain to the NDSU 25

2nd & 20Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.18

Mark Gronowski run for 6 yds to the NDSU 19

3rd & 14Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.59

Mark Gronowski run for 10 yds to the NDSU 9

4th & 4Field Goal Good+26 yds

Hunter Dustman 26 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

DAVIS, Isaiah rush to the left for no gain to the NDS15, End of Play. PENALTY SDS Holding on GREENFIELD, Garret enforced 10 yards from the NDS15 to the NDS25 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

TaMerik Williams run for 4 yds to the NDSU 29

2nd & 6Sack-11 ydsPPA -1.14

Cole Payton sacked by Quinton Hicks and Jarod DePriest for a loss of 11 yards to the NDSU 18

3rd & 17Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.00

Cole Payton run for 5 yds to the NDSU 23

Situational Analysis

North Dakota State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
44%
25 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
33%
6 plays
50%
4 plays
67%
9 plays
100%
2 plays
3rd
100%
2 plays
40%
5 plays
25%
4 plays
100%
1 play
4th
100%
3 plays

South Dakota State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
68%
22 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
0%
4 plays
0%
3 plays
20%
5 plays
50%
2 plays
3rd
100%
3 plays
40%
5 plays
67%
3 plays
100%
2 plays
4th
100%
1 play