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← Back to GamesOct 21, 2023Week 8
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Missouri State by 17.4

Home Win Probability

Missouri State 82%

Market (William Hill (New Jersey))

Missouri State -19

Edge: Murray State +19 (1.6 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 21, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Murray State
1473024
Missouri StateMissouri State
1477028

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014287-77-1414-2121-2128-24
Missouri StateMurray State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20MSMSMSMSMSMSMSMSMSMSMSMSMSMSMSMSMSMSMSMSMSMSMSMSMSMSTO1-6ydTD214ydTD678ydTD1175ydTD560ydTD875ydPUNT524ydPUNT927ydTD1079ydEND48ydMISS1040ydTO4-5ydFG727ydTD675ydPUNT38ydPUNT36ydTO3-1ydTO10ydPUNT36ydPUNT54ydPUNT31ydPUNT39ydTO722ydPUNT3-8ydDOWNS617ydEND1-2yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Murray State and Missouri State
StatisticMurray StateMissouri State
Passing21-3419-29
Pass Yards227287
Rush Yards10717
Total Yards334304
Turnovers23
3rd Down6-164-9
Penalties3-401-5
Possession37:2022:40

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Murray State
passing
DJ Williams
21/34, 227 YDS, 3 TD, 2 INT
rushing
Jawaun Northington
14 CAR, 56 YDS
receiving
Cole Rusk
7 REC, 88 YDS, 1 TD
Missouri State
passing
Jordan Pachot
19/29, 287 YDS, 4 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Jacardia Wright
17 CAR, 64 YDS
receiving
Jacardia Wright
4 REC, 80 YDS

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+6 ydsPPA -0.61

Jacardia Wright run for 6 yds to the MOST 14 Jacardia Wright fumbled, recovered by MUR Cody Goatley

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.25

Cortezz Jones run for 1 yd to the MOST 13

2nd & 9Passing Touchdown+13 ydsPPA +2.79

DJ Williams pass complete to Taylor Shields for 13 yds for a TD (Matt Maldonado KICK)

1st & 10Rush+30 ydsPPA +2.59

Jacardia Wright run for 30 yds to the MUR 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.68

Jordan Pachot pass complete to Raylen Sharpe for 12 yds to the MUR 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +0.47

Jordan Pachot pass complete to Raylen Sharpe for 23 yds to the MUR 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+15 yds

run for 15 yds to the MUR 28

2nd & 25Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Jordan Pachot run for 5 yds to the MUR 23

3rd & 20Passing Touchdown+23 ydsPPA +4.59

Jordan Pachot pass complete to Jmariyae Robinson for 23 yds for a TD (Owen Rozanc KICK)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Cortezz Jones run for 1 yd to the MUR 26

2nd & 9Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.71

DJ Williams pass complete to Parker Perry for 12 yds to the MUR 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +1.34

DJ Williams run for 15 yds to the MOST 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.13

Q'Daryius Jennings run for 4 yds to the MOST 43

2nd & 6Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.80

Jawaun Northington run for 9 yds to the MOST 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.38

DJ Williams pass complete to Jawaun Northington for 7 yds to the MOST 27

2nd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.52

Jawaun Northington run for 1 yd to the MOST 26

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.58

Jawaun Northington run for 1 yd to the MOST 25

4th & 1Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.13

Jawaun Northington run for 14 yds to the MOST 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

DJ Williams pass incomplete to Cole Rusk

2nd & 10Penalty-15 yds

Shotgun Williams,DJ pass complete short left to Shields,Taylor for 0 yards to the MSU11 PENALTY MUR Pass Interference (Jumper,Caden) 15 yards from MSU11 to MSU26. NO PLAY.

2nd & 25Passing Touchdown+26 ydsPPA +4.45

DJ Williams pass complete to Cole Rusk for 26 yds for a TD (Matt Maldonado KICK)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+18 yds

James London kickoff for 43 yds , Trae Thompson return for 18 yds to the MOST 40

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.68

Jacardia Wright run for 2 yds to the MOST 42

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.93

Jordan Pachot pass incomplete to Gary Clinton

3rd & 8Pass Reception+54 ydsPPA +4.68

Jordan Pachot pass complete to Jacardia Wright for 54 yds to the MUR 4 for a 1ST down

1st & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.52

Jacardia Wright run for 1 yd to the MUR 5

2nd & 5Passing Touchdown+5 ydsPPA +2.44

Jordan Pachot pass complete to Gary Clinton for 5 yds for a TD (Owen Rozanc KICK)

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.12

Deshun Britten run for 13 yds to the MUR 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.09

DJ Williams pass incomplete to Cortezz Jones

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Cortezz Jones run for 5 yds to the MUR 43

3rd & 5Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +2.97

DJ Williams pass complete to Taylor Shields for 21 yds to the MOST 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +0.39

DJ Williams pass complete to Cole Rusk for 16 yds to the MOST 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.21

Q'Daryius Jennings run for 2 yds to the MOST 22

2nd & 12Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.13

Michael Fox run for 6 yds to the MOST 16

3rd & 6Passing Touchdown+16 ydsPPA +3.04

DJ Williams pass complete to Taylor Shields for 16 yds for a TD (Matt Maldonado KICK)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Jacardia Wright run for 2 yds to the MOST 27

2nd & 8Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.87

Jordan Pachot pass complete to Terique Owens for 14 yds to the MOST 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.14

Jakairi Moses run for no gain to the MOST 41

2nd & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.79

Jordan Pachot pass complete to Jakairi Moses for no gain to the MOST 41

3rd & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.52

Jordan Pachot pass complete to Terique Owens for 8 yds to the MOST 49

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Grant Burkett punt for 51 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.05

Jawaun Northington run for 14 yds to the MUR 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.38

DJ Williams pass complete to Michael Fox for 9 yds to the MUR 43

2nd & 1Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.19

DJ Williams run for 8 yds to the MOST 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.86

DJ Williams run for 1 yd to the MOST 48

2nd & 9Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.82

Jawaun Northington run for 8 yds to the MOST 40

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.75

Jawaun Northington run for 3 yds to the MOST 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-11 ydsPPA -3.00

DJ Williams sacked for a loss of 11 yards to the MOST 48

2nd & 21Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.67

DJ Williams pass complete to Michael Fox for no gain to the MOST 48

3rd & 21Fumble Recovery (Own)+2 ydsPPA -0.24

DJ Williams sacked by Dylan Simmons for a loss of 5 yards to the MUR 47 DJ Williams fumbled, recovered by MUR DJ Williams , return for 0 yards , return for 2 yds to the MUR 47

4th & 26Punt0 yds

Orion Phillips punt for 32 yds

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.59

Jordan Pachot pass incomplete to Jacardia Wright

2nd & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +1.96

Jordan Pachot pass complete to Jmariyae Robinson for 17 yds to the MOST 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.09

Jordan Pachot pass incomplete to Celdon Manning

2nd & 10Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY MSU False Start (Hudson,Cash) 5 yards from MSU38 to MSU33. NO PLAY.

2nd & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Jordan Pachot pass incomplete to Terique Owens

3rd & 15Pass Reception+29 ydsPPA +4.02

Jordan Pachot pass complete to Raylen Sharpe for 29 yds to the MUR 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.42

Jacardia Wright run for 7 yds to the MUR 31

2nd & 3Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.42

Jordan Pachot pass complete to Jacardia Wright for 2 yds to the MUR 29

3rd & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +0.32

Jacardia Wright run for 1 yd to the MUR 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

Jordan Pachot pass incomplete to Raylen Sharpe

2nd & 10Passing Touchdown+28 ydsPPA +3.28

Jordan Pachot pass complete to Terique Owens for 28 yds for a TD (Owen Rozanc KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.25

DJ Williams pass complete to Cole Rusk for 9 yds to the MUR 34

2nd & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.42

Q'Daryius Jennings run for 1 yd to the MUR 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-5 ydsPPA -1.64

DJ Williams sacked for a loss of 5 yards to the MUR 30

2nd & 15Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.13

Q'Daryius Jennings run for 3 yds to the MUR 33

0th & 15End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.45

DJ Williams pass complete to Taylor Shields for 2 yds to the MUR 27

2nd & 8Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.08

Jawaun Northington run for 4 yds to the MUR 31

3rd & 4Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +2.43

DJ Williams pass complete to Jawaun Northington for 15 yds to the MUR 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.16

Jawaun Northington run for no gain to the MUR 46

2nd & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.11

DJ Williams run for 9 yds to the MOST 45

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.94

Jawaun Northington run for 3 yds to the MOST 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.91

Kywon Morgan run for no gain to the MOST 42

2nd & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.49

DJ Williams pass complete to Cole Rusk for 7 yds to the MOST 35

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.03

DJ Williams pass incomplete to Taylor Shields

4th & 3Field Goal Missed+53 yds

James London 53 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.04

Jacardia Wright run for 8 yds to the MOST 43

2nd & 2Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.44

Jordan Pachot pass complete to Hunter Wood for 8 yds to the MUR 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Jacardia Wright run for 4 yds to the MOST 47

2nd & 14Sack-7 ydsPPA -1.37

Jordan Pachot sacked by CJ Barnes for a loss of 17 yards to the MOST 30 Murray State Penalty, Reed,KaVan at MSU30 Reed,KaVan return Holding (DJ Williams) to the MOST 36

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.31

DJ Williams run for 11 yds to the MOST 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.14

DJ Williams run for 3 yds to the MOST 22

2nd & 7Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.33

Kywon Morgan run for 12 yds to the MOST 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.23

Kywon Morgan run for 1 yd to the MOST 9

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.27

DJ Williams pass incomplete to Taylor Shields

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.39

DJ Williams pass incomplete to Michael Fox

4th & 9Field Goal Good+27 yds

Matt Maldonado 27 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+26 ydsPPA +2.32

Jacardia Wright run for 26 yds to the MUR 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +0.86

Jordan Pachot pass complete to Jacardia Wright for 16 yds to the MUR 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.64

Jordan Pachot pass incomplete to DVontae Key

2nd & 10Pass Reception+29 ydsPPA +1.85

Jordan Pachot pass complete to Terique Owens for 29 yds to the MUR 4 for a 1ST down

1st & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.65

Jordan Pachot pass incomplete to Stetson Moore

2nd & 4Passing Touchdown+4 ydsPPA +2.33

Jordan Pachot pass complete to Raylen Sharpe for 4 yds for a TD (Owen Rozanc KICK)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+39 yds

Spencer Grosz kickoff for 59 yds , Kylan Galbreath return for 39 yds to the MUR 45

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.93

Jawaun Northington run for 1 yd to the MUR 46

2nd & 9Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.87

DJ Williams pass complete to Parker Perry for 8 yds to the MOST 46

3rd & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +0.85

Jawaun Northington run for 1 yd to the MOST 47

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Orion Phillips punt for 45 yds

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.21

Jacardia Wright run for 1 yd to the MOST 3

2nd & 9Rush0 ydsPPA -0.13

Jacardia Wright run for no gain to the MOST 3

3rd & 9Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.01

Jordan Pachot pass complete to Jmariyae Robinson for 5 yds to the MOST 8

4th & 4Punt+12 yds

Grant Burkett punt for 54 yds , Michael Fox returns for 12 yds to the 50 yard line

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.87

DJ Williams run for 1 yd to the MOST 49

2nd & 9Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.64

Kywon Morgan run for 2 yds to the MUR 49

3rd & 11Interception0 ydsPPA -0.84

DJ Williams pass intercepted

1st & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -2.99

Jordan Pachot pass intercepted

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.46

Jawaun Northington run for no gain to the MUR 16

2nd & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.12

DJ Williams pass complete to Cole Rusk for 6 yds to the MUR 22

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.27

DJ Williams pass incomplete to Michael Fox

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Orion Phillips punt for 71 yds

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.20

Jacardia Wright run for 2 yds to the MOST 9

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.19

Jordan Pachot pass incomplete to Jmariyae Robinson

3rd & 8Penalty+15 yds

No Huddle-Shotgun Pachot,Jordan pass incomplete deep right to Owens,Terique PENALTY MUR Pass Interference (Collins,Marco) 15 yards from MSU09 to MSU24, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.43

Jordan Pachot pass complete to Gary Clinton for 2 yds to the MOST 26

2nd & 8Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.08

Jacardia Wright run for 4 yds to the MOST 22

3rd & 12Sack-11 ydsPPA -0.17

Jordan Pachot sacked by Sam Williams for a loss of 11 yards to the MOST 11

4th & 23Punt0 yds

Grant Burkett punt for 51 yds

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.89

Deshun Britten run for 1 yd to the MUR 39

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.78

DJ Williams pass incomplete to Cole Rusk

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.42

DJ Williams pass incomplete to Cole Rusk

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Orion Phillips punt for 49 yds

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.32

Jacardia Wright run for 1 yd to the MOST 13

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.20

Jordan Pachot pass incomplete to Terique Owens

3rd & 9Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.15

Jordan Pachot pass complete to Jacardia Wright for 8 yds to the MOST 21

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Grant Burkett punt for 47 yds

1st & 10Sack-10 ydsPPA -1.71

DJ Williams sacked by Devin Goree for a loss of 10 yards to the MUR 22

2nd & 20Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +1.42

DJ Williams pass complete to Cole Rusk for 18 yds to the MUR 40

3rd & 2Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +1.62

DJ Williams pass complete to Michael Fox for 6 yds to the MUR 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

DJ Williams pass incomplete to Taylor Shields

2nd & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.11

DJ Williams pass complete to Taylor Shields for 9 yds to the MOST 45

3rd & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +0.82

Jawaun Northington run for 1 yd to the MOST 46

4th & 2Interception0 ydsPPA -1.34

DJ Williams pass intercepted

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.79

Jacardia Wright run for 1 yd to the MOST 32

2nd & 11Fumble Recovery (Own)+7 ydsPPA +0.38

Jordan Pachot run for 7 yds to the MOST 25 Jordan Pachot fumbled, recovered by MOST Jordan Pachot

3rd & 18Rush0 ydsPPA -0.07

Jacardia Wright run for no gain to the MOST 25

4th & 18Punt0 yds

Grant Burkett punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Michael Fox at the MUR 36

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.40

DJ Williams pass complete to Cole Rusk for 6 yds to the MUR 42

2nd & 4Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.45

DJ Williams pass complete to Parker Perry for 16 yds to the MOST 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.91

DJ Williams pass incomplete to Jawaun Northington

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.05

DJ Williams pass incomplete to Taylor Shields

3rd & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.06

DJ Williams pass complete to Jawaun Northington for 5 yds to the MOST 37

4th & 5Sack-10 ydsPPA -1.80

DJ Williams sacked by Devin Goree for a loss of 10 yards to the MOST 47

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.60

Kneel down by Missouri St. at MSU45 for loss of 2 yards.

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.60

Kneel down by Missouri St. at MSU45 for loss of 2 yards.

Situational Analysis

Murray State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
30%
30 plays
2nd
33%
3 plays
100%
2 plays
67%
15 plays
60%
5 plays
3rd
71%
7 plays
75%
4 plays
33%
3 plays
0%
2 plays
4th
50%
2 plays
0%
1 play

Missouri State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
2 plays
29%
24 plays
2nd
50%
2 plays
100%
2 plays
40%
10 plays
50%
4 plays
3rd
100%
1 play
100%
4 plays
50%
4 plays
4th