Skip to main content
← Back to GamesOct 7, 2023Week 6
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

North Dakota State by 13.6

Home Win Probability

Missouri State 19%

Market (William Hill (New Jersey))

Missouri State +15.5

Edge: Missouri State +15.5 (1.9 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 7, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
North Dakota StateNorth Dakota State
14143738
Missouri StateMissouri State
703010

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428420-77-147-2110-2810-3110-38
Missouri StateNorth Dakota State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20NDSMSNDSMSNDSMSNDSMSNDSMSNDSMSNDSMSNDSMSNDSMSNDSMSNDSTD973ydPUNT38ydTD677ydTD773ydPUNT35ydDOWNS49ydTD453ydTO849ydDOWNS745ydPUNT30ydTD989ydTO451ydEND1-1ydFG1648ydFG1066ydTO549ydTD638ydTO521ydMISS713ydDOWNS1058ydEND471yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing North Dakota State and Missouri State
StatisticNorth Dakota StateMissouri State
Passing18-2425-44
Pass Yards276269
Rush Yards25882
Total Yards534351
Turnovers04
3rd Down5-103-12
Penalties7-762-20
Possession33:2826:32

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

North Dakota State
passing
Cam Miller
16/20, 256 YDS, 2 TD
rushing
Owen Johnson
9 CAR, 82 YDS
receiving
Zach Mathis
6 REC, 160 YDS, 2 TD
Missouri State
passing
Jordan Pachot
25/44, 269 YDS, 1 TD, 3 INT
rushing
Jacardia Wright
15 CAR, 65 YDS
receiving
Raylen Sharpe
13 REC, 153 YDS, 1 TD

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+25 yds

Spencer Grosz kickoff for 63 yds , Eli Green return for 25 yds to the NDSU 27

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Cam Miller run for 4 yds to the NDSU 31

2nd & 6Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.40

TaMerik Williams run for 10 yds to the NDSU 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Cam Miller pass complete to Hunter Brozio for 3 yds to the NDSU 44

2nd & 7Rush+17 ydsPPA +1.95

TK Marshall run for 17 yds to the MOST 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.44

Cam Miller pass complete to Truman Werremeyer for 7 yds to the MOST 32

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.43

TK Marshall run for 2 yds to the MOST 30

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.37

TK Marshall run for 2 yds to the MOST 32

4th & 3Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.79

Cam Miller pass complete to Giancarlo Volpentesta for 9 yds to the MOST 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+23 ydsPPA +2.66

Cam Miller pass complete to Zach Mathis for 23 yds for a TD (Griffin Crosa KICK)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+24 yds

Griffin Crosa kickoff for 63 yds , Jayden Becks return for 24 yds to the MOST 26

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.73

Jordan Pachot pass incomplete to Raylen Sharpe

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.16

Jacardia Wright run for 3 yds to the MOST 29

3rd & 7Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Jordan Pachot pass complete to Raylen Sharpe for 5 yds to the MOST 34

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Grant Burkett punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Jayden Price at the NDSU 23

1st & 10Pass Reception+34 ydsPPA +2.86

Cam Miller pass complete to Zach Mathis for 34 yds to the MOST 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Owen Johnson run for 4 yds to the MOST 39

2nd & 6Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.72

Cam Miller pass complete to Joe Stoffel for 12 yds to the MOST 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.49

Cam Miller pass incomplete to Joe Stoffel

2nd & 10Rush+18 ydsPPA +0.81

TaMerik Williams run for 18 yds to the MOST 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Rushing Touchdown+9 ydsPPA +2.42

Cam Miller run for 9 yds for a TD (Griffin Crosa KICK)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+22 yds

Kaedin Steindorf kickoff for 60 yds , Jayden Becks return for 22 yds to the MOST 27

1st & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.37

Jordan Pachot pass complete to Raylen Sharpe for 15 yds to the MOST 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.15

Jordan Pachot pass incomplete to Raylen Sharpe

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.82

Jacardia Wright run for no gain to the MOST 42

3rd & 10Pass Reception+36 ydsPPA +3.88

Jordan Pachot pass complete to Raylen Sharpe for 36 yds to the NDSU 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.40

Jacardia Wright run for no gain to the NDSU 22

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.39

Jacardia Wright run for 1 yd to the NDSU 21

3rd & 9Passing Touchdown+21 ydsPPA +3.44

Jordan Pachot pass complete to Raylen Sharpe for 21 yds for a TD (Owen Rozanc KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

RaJa Nelson run for 3 yds to the NDSU 28

2nd & 7Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.47

TK Marshall run for 1 yd to the NDSU 29

3rd & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.27

TK Marshall run for 1 yd to the NDSU 30

4th & 5Punt+24 yds

Kaedin Steindorf punt for 50 yds , Raylen Sharpe returns for 24 yds to the MOST 44

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.96

Jordan Pachot pass complete to Raylen Sharpe for 8 yds to the NDSU 48

2nd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -1.01

Jacardia Wright run for 1 yd to the NDSU 47

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -1.19

Jacardia Wright run for no gain to the NDSU 47

4th & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -1.38

Jacardia Wright run for no gain to the NDSU 47

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Cole Payton run for 4 yds to the MOST 49

2nd & 6Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.35

Cole Payton pass complete to Hunter Brozio for 16 yds to the MOST 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.29

Barika Kpeenu run for 13 yds to the MOST 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+20 ydsPPA +2.62

Cole Payton run for 20 yds for a TD (Griffin Crosa KICK)

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Jacardia Wright run for 4 yds to the MOST 29

2nd & 6Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +1.04

Jordan Pachot pass complete to Raylen Sharpe for 7 yds to the MOST 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

No Huddle-Shotgun Wright,Jacardia rush right for 2 yards gain to the MSU38 (Wisniewski,Cole) PENALTY MSU Holding (Robinson,Jmariyae) 10 yards from MSU36 to MSU26. NO PLAY.

1st & 20Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.83

Jordan Pachot pass complete to Raylen Sharpe for 15 yds to the MOST 41

2nd & 5Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.94

Jordan Pachot pass complete to Raylen Sharpe for 6 yds to the MOST 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.67

Jacardia Wright run for 2 yds to the MOST 49

2nd & 8Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.52

Jordan Pachot pass complete to DVontae Key for 10 yds to the NDSU 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

No Huddle-Shotgun Pachot,Jordan pass incomplete deep left to Owens,Terique PENALTY NDSU Pass Interference (Price,Jayden) 15 yards from NDSU41 to NDSU26, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.47

Jordan Pachot pass incomplete to Jayden Becks

2nd & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -3.81

Jordan Pachot pass intercepted

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.38

Barika Kpeenu run for 6 yds to the NDSU 37

2nd & 4Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +1.75

Cam Miller pass complete to RaJa Nelson for 18 yds to the MOST 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.57

TaMerik Williams run for 12 yds to the MOST 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.48

Owen Johnson run for 1 yd to the MOST 34

2nd & 11Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.82

Cam Miller run for 10 yds to the MOST 24

3rd & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Cam Miller pass incomplete to Hunter Brozio

4th & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -3.41

TaMerik Williams run for no gain to the MOST 24

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.67

Jordan Pachot pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.33

Jordan Pachot pass incomplete to Terique Owens

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.15

Jordan Pachot pass incomplete to Hunter Wood

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Grant Burkett punt for 53 yds , Jayden Price returns for no gain to the NDSU 11

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.49

Cam Miller pass complete to Zach Mathis for 11 yds to the NDSU 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.40

Cam Miller pass complete to Joe Stoffel for 2 yds to the NDSU 24

2nd & 17Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Cam Miller run for 4 yds to the NDSU 19

3rd & 13Pass Reception+25 ydsPPA +2.90

Cam Miller pass complete to Joe Stoffel for 25 yds to the NDSU 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Cam Miller pass incomplete to RaJa Nelson

2nd & 10Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +2.44

Cam Miller pass complete to Braylon Henderson for 18 yds to the MOST 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Cam Miller run for 5 yds to the MOST 33

2nd & 5Passing Touchdown+33 ydsPPA +3.01

Cam Miller pass complete to Zach Mathis for 33 yds for a TD (Griffin Crosa KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +1.71

Jordan Pachot pass complete to Hunter Wood for 19 yds to the MOST 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.89

Jordan Pachot run for 11 yds to the NDSU 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +0.80

Jordan Pachot pass complete to Jmariyae Robinson for 21 yds to the NDSU 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -4.32

Jordan Pachot pass intercepted, touchback.

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.63

Kneel down by North Dakota St. at NDSU19 for loss of 1 yard.

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Jordan Pachot pass complete to Jayden Becks for 2 yds to the MOST 23

2nd & 12Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.21

Jordan Pachot run for 1 yd to the MOST 24

3rd & 11Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +2.99

Jordan Pachot pass complete to Terique Owens for 22 yds to the MOST 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.21

Jordan Pachot pass complete to Lance Mason for 9 yds to the NDSU 45

2nd & 1Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA -0.21

Jordan Pachot pass complete to Jmariyae Robinson for 5 yds to the NDSU 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Jordan Pachot pass complete to Raylen Sharpe for 5 yds to the NDSU 35

2nd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.47

Jacardia Wright run for 2 yds to the NDSU 37

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.05

Jordan Pachot pass incomplete to Hunter Wood

4th & 7Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +2.68

Jordan Pachot pass complete to Raylen Sharpe for 9 yds to the NDSU 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.39

Jacardia Wright run for 1 yd to the NDSU 27

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.65

Jordan Pachot pass incomplete to Lance Mason

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.91

Jordan Pachot pass incomplete to Hunter Wood

4th & 9Penalty+10 yds

No Huddle-Shotgun Pachot,Jordan pass incomplete deep middle to Owens,Terique PENALTY NDSU Holding 10 yards from NDSU27 to NDSU17, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Jacardia Wright run for 4 yds to the NDSU 13

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.36

Jordan Pachot pass incomplete to Terique Owens

3rd & 6Pass Reception+14 yds

Jordan Pachot pass complete to Jmariyae Robinson for 14 yds to the NDSU 27

4th & 20Field Goal Good+44 yds

Owen Rozanc 44 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.29

Cam Miller pass complete to Hunter Brozio for 1 yd to the NDSU 9

2nd & 11Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

TaMerik Williams run for 4 yds to the NDSU 13

3rd & 7Pass Reception+28 ydsPPA +2.55

Cam Miller pass complete to Zach Mathis for 28 yds to the NDSU 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.68

TaMerik Williams run for 2 yds to the NDSU 43

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.96

Cam Miller pass incomplete to Owen Johnson

3rd & 8Pass Reception+31 ydsPPA +3.58

Cam Miller pass complete to Zach Mathis for 31 yds to the MOST 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.48

Barika Kpeenu run for 8 yds to the MOST 18

2nd & 2Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.31

Barika Kpeenu run for 4 yds to the MOST 22

3rd & 6Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY NDSU False Start (Zabel,Grey) 5 yards from MSU22 to MSU27. NO PLAY.

3rd & 11Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.33

Cam Miller pass complete to Joe Stoffel for 3 yds to the MOST 24

4th & 8Field Goal Good+40 yds

Griffin Crosa 40 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+19 yds

Drew Klein kickoff for 65 yds , Jayden Becks return for 19 yds to the MOST 19

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.66

Jordan Pachot pass complete to Raylen Sharpe for 10 yds to the MOST 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.98

Jacardia Wright run for 8 yds to the MOST 37

2nd & 2Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +1.38

Jordan Pachot pass complete to Gary Clinton for 19 yds to the NDSU 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.54

Hunter Wood run for 12 yds to the NDSU 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -4.13

Jordan Pachot pass intercepted

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.25

TK Marshall run for 3 yds to the MOST 35

2nd & 7Rush+17 ydsPPA +0.75

Cole Payton run for 17 yds to the MOST 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.27

TK Marshall run for 1 yd to the MOST 19

2nd & 11Penalty+10 yds

Shotgun Payton,Cole pass incomplete short right to Nelson,RaJa PENALTY MSU Roughing The Passer (Lloyd,Jared) 10 yards from MSU19 to MSU09, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

1st & 9Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.01

Barika Kpeenu run for 4 yds to the MOST 5

2nd & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.26

RaJa Nelson run for 1 yd to the MOST 4

3rd & 4Passing Touchdown+4 ydsPPA +2.70

Cole Payton pass complete to Jake Lippe for 4 yds for a TD (Griffin Crosa KICK)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+20 yds

Drew Klein kickoff for 61 yds , Jayden Becks return for 20 yds to the MOST 24

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.67

Jordan Pachot pass incomplete to Jmariyae Robinson

2nd & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.58

Jordan Pachot pass complete to Raylen Sharpe for 11 yds to the MOST 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Jordan Pachot pass complete to Raylen Sharpe for 5 yds to the MOST 40

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.06

Jordan Pachot pass incomplete to Terique Owens

3rd & 5Fumble Recovery (Own)+5 ydsPPA +1.92

Jordan Pachot pass complete to Celdon Manning for 5 yds Celdon Manning fumbled, recovered by NDSU Logan Kopp

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Barika Kpeenu run for 5 yds to the MOST 40

2nd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Owen Johnson run for 4 yds to the MOST 36

3rd & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.62

Owen Johnson run for 4 yds to the MOST 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.61

Owen Johnson run for no gain to the MOST 32

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.83

Cole Payton pass incomplete to Jake Lippe

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Cole Payton pass incomplete to Kaden Zenzen

4th & 10Field Goal Missed+50 yds

Griffin Crosa 50 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush+21 ydsPPA +1.91

Jacardia Wright run for 21 yds to the NDSU 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Jayden Becks run for 5 yds to the NDSU 42

2nd & 5Sack-12 ydsPPA -3.26

Jordan Pachot sacked by Logan Larson for a loss of 12 yards to the MOST 46

3rd & 17Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.26

Jordan Pachot pass complete to Jmariyae Robinson for 7 yds to the NDSU 47

4th & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +3.65

Jordan Pachot pass complete to Hunter Wood for 15 yds to the NDSU 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+22 ydsPPA +0.36

Jacardia Wright run for 22 yds to the NDSU 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Jordan Pachot pass incomplete to Jmariyae Robinson

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.28

Jordan Pachot pass incomplete to Jmariyae Robinson

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.44

Jordan Pachot pass incomplete to Lance Mason

4th & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -3.49

Jordan Pachot pass incomplete

1st & 10Rush+55 ydsPPA +3.82

Owen Johnson run for 55 yds to the MOST 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.22

Owen Johnson run for 3 yds to the MOST 32

2nd & 7Rush+19 ydsPPA +0.65

Owen Johnson run for 19 yds to the MOST 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.18

Owen Johnson run for 6 yds to the MOST 19

Situational Analysis

North Dakota State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
45%
31 plays
2nd
0%
2 plays
71%
7 plays
63%
8 plays
33%
3 plays
3rd
67%
3 plays
50%
2 plays
67%
3 plays
50%
2 plays
4th
50%
2 plays

Missouri State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
50%
28 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
33%
3 plays
33%
6 plays
22%
9 plays
0%
1 play
3rd
0%
1 play
100%
1 play
43%
7 plays
100%
2 plays
4th
0%
1 play
67%
3 plays