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← Back to GamesSep 16, 2023Week 3

House Prediction

Model Margin

Montana State by 27.8

Home Win Probability

Montana State 93%

Market (William Hill (New Jersey))

Montana State -45.5

Edge: Stetson +45.5 (17.7 pts)

fitted_v1 · Sep 16, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Stetson
067720
Montana State
212010657

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q40142842567-014-021-027-341-644-1351-1354-2057-20
Montana StateStetson

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20STEMSSTEMSSTEMSSTEMSSTEMSSTESTEMSMSSTEMSSTEMSSTEMSSTEMSPUNT48ydTD1171ydPUNT622ydTD790ydTO411ydTD235ydPUNT35ydTD669ydFG727ydTD465ydTD10ydFG1254ydEND12ydTO357ydTD552ydFG1056ydPUNT413ydTD547ydPUNT513ydFG759ydTD1275ydFG628yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Stetson and Montana State
StatisticStetsonMontana State
Passing15-2716-30
Pass Yards172272
Rush Yards111318
Total Yards283590
Turnovers21
3rd Down6-144-8
Penalties4-143-22
Possession29:5523:57

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Stetson
passing
Matt O'Connor
12/24, 127 YDS, 2 INT
rushing
Kaderris Roberts
9 CAR, 67 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Gabe Atkin
4 REC, 71 YDS
Montana State
passing
Sean Chambers
9/13, 140 YDS
rushing
Jared White
4 CAR, 80 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Jacob Trimble
6 REC, 104 YDS

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.93

Kaderris Roberts run for 11 yds to the STET 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-3 ydsPPA -1.49

Matt O'Connor sacked by Sebastian Valdez for a loss of 3 yards to the STET 33

2nd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.42

Matt O'Connor pass incomplete

3rd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.20

Matt O'Connor pass incomplete

4th & 13Punt0 yds

Marshall Golick punt for 38 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.12

Sean Chambers pass complete to Jacob Trimble for 12 yds to the MTST 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Sean Chambers pass complete to Jacob Trimble for 4 yds to the MTST 45

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.11

Sean Chambers pass incomplete

3rd & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Sean Chambers run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line

4th & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +2.26

Julius Davis run for 3 yds to the STET 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.05

Sean Chambers pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.79

Sean Chambers pass complete to Jacob Trimble for 8 yds to the STET 39

3rd & 2Rush+22 ydsPPA +1.30

Julius Davis run for 22 yds to the STET 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Scottre Humphrey run for 5 yds to the STET 12

2nd & 5Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.82

Sean Chambers run for 8 yds to the STET 4 for a 1ST down

1st & 4Rushing Touchdown+4 ydsPPA +1.69

Scottre Humphrey run for 4 yds for a TD (Brendan Hall KICK)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Kaderris Roberts run for 1 yd to the STET 26

2nd & 9Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Matt O'Connor pass complete to Kaderris Roberts for 4 yds to the STET 30

3rd & 5Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +2.08

Matt O'Connor pass complete to Nazeviah Burris for 11 yds to the STET 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.14

Kaderris Roberts run for no gain to the STET 41

2nd & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.08

Matt O'Connor pass complete to Nazeviah Burris for 9 yds to the 50 yard line

3rd & 1Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.69

Matt O'Connor run for a loss of 3 yards to the STET 47

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Marshall Golick punt for 43 yds, downed at the MTST 10

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +0.65

Sean Chambers pass complete to Christian Anaya for 14 yds to the MTST 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.59

Scottre Humphrey run for 7 yds to the MTST 31

2nd & 3Rush+15 ydsPPA +1.37

Scottre Humphrey run for 15 yds to the MTST 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.89

Sean Chambers pass complete to Clevan Thomas for 12 yds to the STET 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+30 ydsPPA +0.76

Sean Chambers pass complete to Clevan Thomas for 30 yds to the STET 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Sean Chambers run for 5 yds to the STET 7

2nd & 5Rushing Touchdown+7 ydsPPA +2.46

Sean Chambers run for 7 yds for a TD (Brendan Hall KICK)

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.93

Kaderris Roberts run for 11 yds to the STET 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Matt O'Connor pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.63

Matt O'Connor pass incomplete

3rd & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -0.18

Matt O'Connor pass intercepted

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Julius Davis run for 5 yds to the STET 30

2nd & 5Rushing Touchdown+30 ydsPPA +2.89

Sean Chambers run for 30 yds for a TD (Brendan Hall KICK)

1st & 10Sack-3 ydsPPA -0.96

Matt O'Connor sacked by Brody Grebe for a loss of 3 yards to the STET 22

2nd & 13Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.42

Matt O'Connor pass complete to Jalon Warthen-Carr for 9 yds to the STET 31

3rd & 4Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.50

Devon Brewer run for a loss of 1 yard to the STET 30

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Marshall Golick punt for 60 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.14

Sean Chambers pass complete to Aidan Garrigan for 12 yds to the MTST 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Sean Chambers pass incomplete

2nd & 10Penalty-10 yds

Montana State Penalty, Offensive Holding (TEAM) to the MTST 37

2nd & 16Rush+15 ydsPPA +2.12

Scottre Humphrey run for 15 yds to the STET 48

3rd & 1Penalty+40 yds

Stetson Penalty, Face mask (40 yards) (Rassie Littlejohn) to the STET 4 for a 1ST down

1st & 4Rushing Touchdown+4 ydsPPA +1.69

Scottre Humphrey run for 4 yds for a TD (Brendan Hall PAT MISSED)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.93

Kaderris Roberts run for 1 yd to the STET 46

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.98

Matt O'Connor pass incomplete

3rd & 9Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +3.25

Matt O'Connor pass complete to Aanjay Feliciano for 20 yds to the MTST 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Matt O'Connor pass complete to Elijah Workinger for 4 yds to the MTST 30

2nd & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.54

Matt O'Connor run for 1 yd to the MTST 29

3rd & 5Penalty-5 yds

Stetson Penalty, False Start (TEAM) to the MTST 34

3rd & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.26

Matt O'Connor pass complete to Jalon Warthen-Carr for 6 yds to the MTST 28

4th & 4Field Goal Good+45 yds

Daniel Holbrook 45 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Sean Chambers pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.70

Sean Chambers pass complete to Jared White for 8 yds to the MTST 43

3rd & 2Rush+6 ydsPPA +1.63

Jared White run for 6 yds to the MTST 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+51 ydsPPA +3.92

Jared White run for 51 yds for a TD (Brendan Hall KICK)

1st & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -0.92

Matt O'Connor pass intercepted for a TD (Brendan Hall KICK)

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.25

Kaderris Roberts run for 9 yds to the STET 34

2nd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.23

Kaderris Roberts run for 3 yds to the STET 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.24

Devon Brewer run for a loss of 1 yard to the STET 36

2nd & 11Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.18

Devon Brewer run for 10 yds to the STET 46

3rd & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +1.01

Matt O'Connor run for 1 yd to the STET 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Devon Brewer run for 4 yds to the MTST 49

2nd & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.92

Devon Brewer run for 1 yd to the MTST 48

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.99

Matt O'Connor pass incomplete

4th & 5Penalty+7 yds

O'CONNOR, Matt pass to the left incomplete intended for FELICIANO, Aanjay thrown to the MSU41, clock 05:22. PENALTY MSU Pass Interference enforced at the spot of the foul for 7 yards to the MSU41 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Penalty0 yds

Stetson Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Matt O'Connor) to the STET 49

2nd & 20Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.61

Matt O'Connor pass complete to Aanjay Feliciano for no gain to the STET 49

3rd & 20Pass Reception+30 ydsPPA +4.17

Matt O'Connor pass complete to Gabe Atkin for 30 yds to the MTST 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Field Goal Good+37 yds

Daniel Holbrook 37 yd FG GOOD

0th & 8End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.01

[NHSG] Kneel down by MSU at MSU37 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.

1st & 10Pass Reception+25 ydsPPA +2.24

Jordan Reed pass complete to Jacob Trimble for 25 yds to the STET 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.05

Jordan Reed pass incomplete

2nd & 10Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+32 ydsPPA -2.34

Jordan Reed pass complete to Jacob Trimble for 32 yds Jacob Trimble fumbled, recovered by STET Rassie Littlejohn

1st & 10Rush+30 ydsPPA +1.36

Kaderris Roberts run for 30 yds to the MTST 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Stetson Penalty, False Start (TEAM) to the MTST 27

1st & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.52

Matt O'Connor pass incomplete

2nd & 15Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +1.73

Matt O'Connor pass complete to Nazeviah Burris for 22 yds to the MTST 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.45

Devon Brewer run for 1 yd to the MTST 4

2nd & 4Rushing Touchdown+4 ydsPPA +2.33

Kaleb Costner run for 4 yds for a TD (Daniel Holbrook KICK)

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Julius Davis run for 6 yds to the MTST 31

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.87

Jordan Reed pass incomplete

3rd & 4Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.95

Julius Davis run for 10 yds to the MTST 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+20 ydsPPA +1.52

Julius Davis run for 20 yds to the STET 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.81

Jordan Reed pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +1.32

Jordan Reed pass complete to Aidan Garrigan for 18 yds to the STET 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.39

Jordan Reed pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.26

Marqui Johnson run for 2 yds to the STET 19

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.64

Jordan Reed pass incomplete

4th & 8Field Goal Good+36 yds

Brendan Hall 36 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.93

Donovan Shepard run for 11 yds to the STET 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.64

Donovan Shepard run for 2 yds to the STET 38

2nd & 8Rush0 ydsPPA -0.81

Donovan Shepard run for no gain to the STET 38

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.44

Matt O'Connor pass incomplete

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Marshall Golick punt for 42 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +0.95

Jordan Reed pass complete to Christian Anaya for 24 yds to the STET 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.42

Jordan Reed pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.57

Jared White run for 13 yds to the STET 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.30

Jordan Reed run for 7 yds to the STET 3

2nd & 3Rushing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +2.21

Scottre Humphrey run for 3 yds for a TD (Brendan Hall KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.91

Matt O'Connor pass complete to Gabe Atkin for 8 yds to the STET 33

2nd & 2Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA +0.12

Matt O'Connor pass complete to Devon Brewer for 4 yds to the STET 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.87

Devon Brewer run for 1 yd to the STET 38

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.75

Matt O'Connor pass incomplete

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.40

Matt O'Connor pass incomplete

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Marshall Golick punt for 53 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.31

Jordan Reed pass complete to Ryan Lonergan for 6 yds to the MTST 28

2nd & 4Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.01

Jared White run for 10 yds to the MTST 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+39 ydsPPA +2.29

Elijah Elliott run for 39 yds to the STET 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.42

Jordan Reed pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Jordan Reed pass complete to Tayvian Williams for 4 yds to the STET 19

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.60

Jordan Reed pass incomplete

4th & 6Field Goal Good+36 yds

Casey Kautzman 36 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.91

Donovan Shepard run for 8 yds to the STET 33

2nd & 2Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.98

Brady Meitz pass complete to Gabe Atkin for 13 yds to the STET 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Donovan Shepard run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 6Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.25

Brady Meitz pass complete to Nazeviah Burris for 12 yds to the MTST 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.25

Donovan Shepard run for 3 yds to the MTST 35

2nd & 7Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +0.78

Brady Meitz pass complete to Gabe Atkin for 20 yds to the MTST 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.30

Donovan Shepard run for 7 yds to the MTST 8

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.25

Donovan Shepard run for 2 yds to the MTST 6

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.04

Kaleb Costner run for 3 yds to the MTST 3 for a 1ST down

1st & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.44

Kaleb Costner run for 2 yds to the MTST 1

2nd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.55

Kaleb Costner run for no gain to the MTST 1

3rd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +2.45

Kaderris Roberts run for 1 yd for a TD (Daniel Holbrook KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Jordan Reed pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +2.57

Jordan Reed pass complete to Jacob Trimble for 23 yds to the STET 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.19

Elijah Elliott run for 3 yds to the STET 29

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.69

Jordan Reed pass incomplete

3rd & 7Penalty-5 yds

Montana State Penalty, False Start (TEAM) to the STET 34

3rd & 12Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.47

Elijah Elliott run for 7 yds to the STET 27

4th & 5Field Goal Good+44 yds

Casey Kautzman 44 yd FG GOOD

Situational Analysis

Stetson

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
0%
1 play
36%
22 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
40%
5 plays
50%
4 plays
29%
7 plays
60%
5 plays
3rd
75%
4 plays
33%
3 plays
40%
5 plays
50%
2 plays
4th

Montana State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
2 plays
59%
29 plays
2nd
100%
2 plays
67%
6 plays
56%
9 plays
100%
1 play
3rd
100%
2 plays
67%
3 plays
0%
1 play
100%
1 play
4th
100%
1 play