Skip to main content
← Back to GamesDec 3, 2023Week 14
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Florida State by 14.7

Home Win Probability

Florida State 82%

Market (Bovada)

Florida State +1.5

Edge: Florida State +1.5 (16.2 pts)

fitted_v1 · Dec 3, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
LouisvilleLouisville
00336
Florida StateFlorida State
037616

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q40143-03-310-310-613-616-6
Florida StateLouisville

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20LOUFSLOUFSLOUFSLOUFSLOUFSLOUFSLOUFSLOUFSLOUFSLOUFSLOUFSLOUFSLOUFSLOUFSLOUFSLOUFSPUNT33ydPUNT3-5ydPUNT30ydPUNT33ydPUNT412ydPUNT33ydDOWNS49ydPUNT32ydPUNT38ydFG1150ydPUNT624ydPUNT939ydPUNT46ydMISS511ydEND2-3ydPUNT31ydFG1356ydTD275ydPUNT511ydPUNT33ydPUNT38ydPUNT35ydFG843ydDOWNS4-13ydTO31ydPUNT526ydPUNT3-4ydFG634ydDOWNS4-5ydFG4-2ydDOWNS4-6ydEND2-10yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Louisville and Florida State
StatisticLouisvilleFlorida State
Passing14-368-21
Pass Yards11155
Rush Yards77164
Total Yards188219
Turnovers10
3rd Down3-182-16
Penalties5-483-20
Possession28:3231:28

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Louisville
passing
Jack Plummer
14/36, 111 YDS, 1 INT
rushing
Jawhar Jordan
14 CAR, 52 YDS
receiving
Jamari Thrash
7 REC, 57 YDS
defense
Florida State
passing
Brock Glenn
8/21, 55 YDS
rushing
Lawrance Toafili
10 CAR, 118 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Johnny Wilson
2 REC, 21 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Jawhar Jordan run for 1 yd to the LOU 26

2nd & 9Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.55

Jawhar Jordan run for a loss of 3 yards to the LOU 23

3rd & 12Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.01

Jack Plummer pass complete to Chris Bell for 5 yds to the LOU 28

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Brady Hodges punt for 39 yds, downed at the FSU 33

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.79

Brock Glenn run for 1 yd to the FSU 34

2nd & 9Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.40

Brock Glenn pass complete to Keon Coleman for 2 yds to the FSU 36

3rd & 7Sack-8 ydsPPA -0.70

Brock Glenn sacked by Storm Duck for a loss of 8 yards to the FSU 28

4th & 15Punt0 yds

Alex Mastromanno punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Kevin Coleman at the LOU 25

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Jack Plummer pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Jimmy Calloway

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.16

Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Joey Gatewood

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Brady Hodges punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Keon Coleman at the FSU 31

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.74

Rodney Hill run for 1 yd to the FSU 32

2nd & 9Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.37

Brock Glenn pass complete to Keon Coleman for 2 yds to the FSU 34

3rd & 7Rush0 ydsPPA -0.38

Lawrance Toafili run for no gain to the FSU 34

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Alex Mastromanno punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Kevin Coleman at the LOU 29

1st & 10Rush+22 ydsPPA +2.01

Jawhar Jordan run for 22 yds to the FSU 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.10

Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Chris Bell

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.40

Jawhar Jordan run for 3 yds to the FSU 46

3rd & 7Sack-13 ydsPPA -2.00

Jack Plummer sacked by Jared Verse for a loss of 13 yards to the LOU 41

4th & 20Punt0 yds

Brady Hodges punt for 49 yds, downed at the FSU 10

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.29

Trey Benson run for 1 yd to the FSU 11

2nd & 9Sack-4 ydsPPA -0.26

Brock Glenn sacked by Ramon Puryear for a loss of 4 yards to the FSU 7

3rd & 13Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.02

Brock Glenn pass complete to Keon Coleman for 6 yds to the FSU 13

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Alex Mastromanno punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Kevin Coleman at the LOU 42

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.55

Isaac Guerendo run for a loss of 2 yards to the LOU 40

2nd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.66

Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Chris Bell

3rd & 12Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.98

Jack Plummer run for 11 yds to the FSU 49

4th & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.21

Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Josh Lifson

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.87

Trey Benson run for 1 yd to the LOU 49

2nd & 9Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.86

Trey Benson run for 1 yd to the LOU 48

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.86

Brock Glenn pass incomplete to Ja'Khi Douglas

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Alex Mastromanno punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LOU 20

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.36

Jawhar Jordan run for 2 yds to the LOU 22

2nd & 8Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.19

Kevin Coleman run for 6 yds to the LOU 28

3rd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.47

Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Jimmy Calloway

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Brady Hodges punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Keon Coleman at the FSU 23

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.42

Brock Glenn pass complete to Johnny Wilson for 2 yds to the FSU 25

2nd & 8Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.36

Trey Benson run for 1 yd to the FSU 26

3rd & 7Penalty+8 yds

Glenn, Brock pass incomplete to Wilson, Johnny, PENALTY LOUISVILLE pass interference (Brownlee Jr., Jarvis) 8 yards to the FLORIDAST34, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FLORIDAST.

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.40

Rodney Hill run for 3 yds to the FSU 37

2nd & 7Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.46

Lawrance Toafili run for 8 yds to the FSU 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.66

Brock Glenn run for 7 yds to the LOU 48

2nd & 3Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.14

Lawrance Toafili run for 3 yds to the LOU 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+21 ydsPPA +0.80

Brock Glenn run for 6 yds to the LOU 39, Louisville Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Ashton Gillotte) to the LOU 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.43

Brock Glenn pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.58

Brock Glenn pass incomplete to Caziah Holmes

3rd & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)-3 ydsPPA -1.49

TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the LOU 27 TEAM fumbled, recovered by FSU Maurice Smith

4th & 13Field Goal Good+45 yds

Ryan Fitzgerald 45 Yd Field Goal

4th & 13Kickoff Return (Offense)+16 yds

Ryan Fitzgerald kickoff for 54 yds , Isaac Guerendo return for 16 yds to the LOU 27

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.88

Jack Plummer run for a loss of 1 yard to the LOU 26

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.33

Jack Plummer pass incomplete

3rd & 11Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +2.77

Jack Plummer pass complete to Jawhar Jordan for 18 yds to the LOU 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.67

Jawhar Jordan run for 7 yds to the FSU 49

2nd & 3Rush0 ydsPPA -1.27

Jawhar Jordan run for no gain to the FSU 49

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.06

Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Chris Bell

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Brady Hodges punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FSU 10

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.15

Trey Benson run for 3 yds to the FSU 13

2nd & 7Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.17

Trey Benson run for 6 yds to the FSU 19

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.50

Trey Benson run for 3 yds to the FSU 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.10

Brock Glenn run for 4 yds to the FSU 26

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.57

Brock Glenn pass incomplete to Keon Coleman

3rd & 6Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +2.66

Brock Glenn pass complete to Johnny Wilson for 19 yds to the FSU 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Lawrance Toafili run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 5Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.43

Lawrance Toafili run for a loss of 1 yard to the FSU 49

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.86

Brock Glenn pass incomplete to Keon Coleman

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Alex Mastromanno punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Kevin Coleman at the LOU 8

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.36

Jack Plummer pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 10 yds to the LOU 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.33

Isaac Guerendo run for 2 yds to the LOU 20

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.33

Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Jimmy Calloway

3rd & 8Sack-6 ydsPPA -0.22

Jack Plummer sacked by Braden Fiske for a loss of 6 yards to the LOU 14

4th & 14Punt0 yds

Brady Hodges punt for 24 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LOU 38

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.39

Brock Glenn pass complete to Trey Benson for 13 yds to the LOU 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.33

Trey Benson run for 7 yds to the LOU 18

2nd & 3Sack-9 ydsPPA -1.73

Brock Glenn sacked by Jaylin Alderman and Stephen Herron for a loss of 9 yards to the LOU 27

3rd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.97

Brock Glenn pass incomplete to Ja'Khi Douglas

4th & 12Field Goal Missed+45 yds

Ryan Fitzgerald 45 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)-4 ydsPPA -1.12

Jack Plummer pass complete to Jawhar Jordan for a loss of 4 yards Jawhar Jordan fumbled, forced by Azareye'h Thomas, recovered by LOU Jawhar Jordan

2nd & 14Penalty-10 yds

Jordan, Jawhar rush for 18 yards to the LOUISVILLE41, PENALTY LOUISVILLE holding (Hudson, Bryan) 10 yards to the LOUISVILLE13, NO PLAY.

2nd & 24Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.13

Isaac Guerendo run for 11 yds to the LOU 24

0th & 24End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.25

Brock Glenn pass complete to Keon Coleman for 9 yds to the FSU 34

2nd & 1Penalty-10 yds

Glenn, Brock rush for 18 yards to the LOUISVILLE48, PENALTY FLORIDAST holding (Jones, Keiondre) 10 yards to the FLORIDAST24, NO PLAY.

2nd & 11Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.19

Brock Glenn pass complete to Trey Benson for 2 yds to the FSU 26

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.19

Brock Glenn pass incomplete to Johnny Wilson

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Alex Mastromanno punt for 49 yds , Kevin Coleman returns for no gain to the LOU 25

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.80

Jack Plummer run for a loss of 1 yard to the LOU 24

2nd & 11Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.13

Jawhar Jordan run for 3 yds to the LOU 27

3rd & 8Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.77

Jawhar Jordan run for 8 yds to the LOU 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Jack Plummer pass complete to Kevin Coleman for 15 yds to the 50 yard line Louisville Penalty, Illegal Block (-10 Yards) to the LOU 40

1st & 5Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA -0.06

Jack Plummer pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 11 yds to the FSU 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Louisville Penalty, False Start (Jamari Thrash) to the LOU 46

1st & 15Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.55

Jack Plummer run for 7 yds to the FSU 47

2nd & 8Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.24

Jack Plummer pass complete to Duane Martin for 8 yds to the FSU 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.81

Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Jadon Thompson

2nd & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.19

Jack Plummer pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 11 yds to the FSU 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.39

Jawhar Jordan run for 1 yd to the FSU 27

2nd & 9Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.30

Jack Plummer pass complete to Jawhar Jordan for 7 yds to the FSU 20

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.45

Jawhar Jordan run for 1 yd to the FSU 19

4th & 1Field Goal Good+36 yds

Brock Travelstead 36 Yd Field Goal

1st & 10Rush+73 ydsPPA +4.86

Lawrance Toafili run for 73 yds to the LOU 2 for a 1ST down

1st & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +1.21

Lawrance Toafili 2 Yd Run (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Jack Plummer pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.73

Jack Plummer pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 12 yds to the LOU 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.24

Isaac Guerendo run for a loss of 1 yard to the LOU 36

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.58

Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Josh Lifson

3rd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Jamari Thrash

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Brady Hodges punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Keon Coleman at the FSU 20

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Brock Glenn pass incomplete to Kyle Morlock

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.11

Lawrance Toafili run for 3 yds to the FSU 23

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.20

Brock Glenn pass incomplete to Preston Daniel

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Alex Mastromanno punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Kevin Coleman at the LOU 32

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Jack Plummer pass complete to Nate Kurisky for 5 yds to the LOU 37

2nd & 3Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.26

Jawhar Jordan run for 3 yds to the LOU 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.12

Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Jamari Thrash

2nd & 10Punt0 yds

Brady Hodges punt for 44 yds, downed at the FSU 16

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Rodney Hill run for 5 yds to the FSU 21

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

Brock Glenn pass incomplete to Johnny Wilson

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.23

Brock Glenn pass incomplete to Kyle Morlock

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Alex Mastromanno punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Kevin Coleman at the LOU 41

1st & 10Rush+41 ydsPPA +2.07

Maurice Turner run for 41 yds to the FSU 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.31

Jack Plummer run for 7 yds to the FSU 11

2nd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.45

Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Jamari Thrash

3rd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.54

Jack Plummer run for 4 yds to the FSU 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Rush0 ydsPPA -0.41

Maurice Turner run for no gain to the FSU 7

2nd & 7Pass Reception-9 ydsPPA -1.06

Jack Plummer pass complete to Jamari Thrash for a loss of 9 yards to the FSU 16

3rd & 0Pass Incompletion0 yds

Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Jimmy Calloway

4th & 0Field Goal Good+33 yds

Brock Travelstead 33 Yd Field Goal

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Trey Benson run for 4 yds to the FSU 29

2nd & 6Penalty-5 yds

Florida State Penalty, Delay of Game (Brock Glenn) to the FSU 24

2nd & 11Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.13

Trey Benson run for 3 yds to the FSU 27

3rd & 8Sack-4 ydsPPA -0.31

Brock Glenn sacked by Kameron Wilson and Jermayne Lole for a loss of 4 yards to the FSU 23

4th & 12Rush-11 ydsPPA +0.32

Alex Mastromanno run for a loss of 11 yards to the FSU 12

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Nate Kurisky

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.23

Jawhar Jordan run for 1 yd to the FSU 11

3rd & 9Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -3.94

Jack Plummer pass intercepted, touchback. Tatum Bethune return for no gain

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.69

Lawrance Toafili run for 10 yds to the FSU 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +1.42

Lawrance Toafili run for 15 yds to the FSU 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.38

Trey Benson run for a loss of 1 yard to the FSU 44

2nd & 11Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.53

Trey Benson run for 2 yds to the FSU 46

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.62

Brock Glenn pass incomplete to Keon Coleman

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Alex Mastromanno punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Kevin Coleman at the LOU 14

1st & 10Sack-8 ydsPPA -0.67

Jack Plummer sacked by Fabien Lovett for a loss of 8 yards to the LOU 6 Louisville Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Jack Plummer) to the LOU 6

2nd & 18Sack-5 ydsPPA -0.06

Jack Plummer sacked by Patrick Payton for a loss of 5 yards to the LOU 1

3rd & 23Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.02

Jack Plummer pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 9 yds to the LOU 10

4th & 14Punt0 yds

Brady Hodges punt for 39 yds, downed at the LOU 49

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.67

Trey Benson run for 11 yds to the LOU 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+21 ydsPPA +0.51

Trey Benson run for 21 yds to the LOU 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.26

Trey Benson run for 1 yd to the LOU 16

2nd & 9Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.28

Brock Glenn run for 1 yd to the LOU 15

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.52

Brock Glenn pass incomplete to Lawrance Toafili

4th & 8Field Goal Good+33 yds

Ryan Fitzgerald 33 Yd Field Goal

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Jawhar Jordan run for 3 yds to the LOU 28

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Chris Bell

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.27

Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce

4th & 7Sack-8 ydsPPA +0.20

Jack Plummer sacked by Braden Fiske for a loss of 8 yards to the LOU 20

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.29

Trey Benson run for 1 yd to the LOU 19

2nd & 9Penalty-5 yds

Florida State Penalty, False Start (Jackson West) to the LOU 24

2nd & 14Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.51

Trey Benson run for 1 yd to the LOU 23

3rd & 13Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.70

Trey Benson run for 1 yd to the LOU 22

4th & 12Field Goal Good+40 yds

Ryan Fitzgerald 40 Yd Field Goal

1st & 10Sack-6 ydsPPA -1.11

Jack Plummer sacked by Jared Verse for a loss of 6 yards to the LOU 19

2nd & 16Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.72

Jack Plummer pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 13 yds to the LOU 32

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Jamari Thrash

4th & 3Sack-13 ydsPPA -0.02

Jack Plummer sacked by Braden Fiske for a loss of 13 yards to the LOU 19

1st & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -0.73

TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the LOU 23

2nd & 14Rush-6 ydsPPA -1.83

TEAM run for a loss of 6 yards to the LOU 29

Situational Analysis

Louisville

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
27%
26 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
33%
3 plays
42%
12 plays
29%
7 plays
3rd
20%
5 plays
17%
6 plays
80%
5 plays
4th
0%
2 plays
100%
1 play

Florida State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
44%
27 plays
2nd
50%
2 plays
0%
3 plays
20%
10 plays
0%
5 plays
3rd
100%
1 play
33%
3 plays
0%
9 plays
33%
3 plays
4th
100%
1 play